Stock Market Day-Trading Discussion Thread

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[quote author="morekaos" date=1241141407]I get the feeling the Fed is hashing over that stress test result and is going to try and soft-shoe the results. I do think they will do everything possible to obfuscate and hide the problem. The numbers (although BS) may not be as bad as everyone expects</blockquote>


The wheels are turning. They are gonna find a way to spin this out as a positive...watch.



<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPVqgPJeDyzE&refer=worldwide">U.S. Bank Test Results Delayed as Conclusions Debated </a>
 
I wonder what is going to happen when the markets realize there is another huge wave of foreclosures coming that is going to pummel the housing markets?



<a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/">Stocks surge after data hints at housing bottom</a>



"Investors are rushing into stocks Monday as surprise increases in pending home sales and construction spending offered the latest signs that the economy is stabilizing."



I know the headlines generally have little or no correlation with why the markets really move, but I find it interesting that people might actually believe the worst is behind the housing market. It clearly isn't. What happens when the housing market at the high end takes a big dump this fall and winter?
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1241482159]

I know the headlines generally have little or no correlation with why the markets really move, but I find it interesting that people might actually believe the worst is behind the housing market. It clearly isn't. What happens when the housing market at the high end takes a big dump this fall and winter?</blockquote>


Everyone is definitely getting more bullish (just listen to those people who get paid to talk trash on CNBC) and the general public will follow. At the end of the day, when there are more money in the system to buy stocks, prices go up regardless of fundamentals.



It is certainly interesting how in every crash, the immediate few moments prior always sees the biggest increases. I suspect it will be the same this time, where we will see people jump back into the market, pushing prices even higher before bad news hits (which could be as quickly as Thursday when the bank stress test hits even though I doubt it will be that quick).
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1241221357][quote author="morekaos" date=1241141407]I get the feeling the Fed is hashing over that stress test result and is going to try and soft-shoe the results. I do think they will do everything possible to obfuscate and hide the problem. The numbers (although BS) may not be as bad as everyone expects</blockquote>


The wheels are turning. They are gonna find a way to spin this out as a positive...watch.



<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPVqgPJeDyzE&refer=worldwide">U.S. Bank Test Results Delayed as Conclusions Debated </a></blockquote>


Look over there!!!, that shiny ball!!! Isn't it pretty?



<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/04/us/politics/04stress.html?_r=1&ref=business">Tests of Banks May Bring Hope More Than Fear</a>
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1241482159]I wonder what is going to happen when the markets realize there is another huge wave of foreclosures coming that is going to pummel the housing markets?



<a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/">Stocks surge after data hints at housing bottom</a>



"Investors are rushing into stocks Monday as surprise increases in pending home sales and construction spending offered the latest signs that the economy is stabilizing."



I know the headlines generally have little or no correlation with why the markets really move, but I find it interesting that people might actually believe the worst is behind the housing market. It clearly isn't. What happens when the housing market at the high end takes a big dump this fall and winter?</blockquote>
Not only that IR, but before the open analysts made upgrades on everything under the sun especially on some big NASDAQ stocks like RIMM and INTC.<span style="color: blue;"></span>



I've been tracking volume and it seems to coming in lighter and lighter as we keep moving up. There are gonna be a lot of people left holding the bag when this thing turns South.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1241499964]



I've been tracking volume and it seems to coming in lighter and lighter as we keep moving up. There are gonna be a lot of people left holding the bag when this thing turns South.</blockquote>


I was going to post about the volume as well. Another possible explanation is that while many are waiting for the pull back, everyone who still own shares doesn't see the need to sell, not to mention that most people won't short anything in this type of a market.



The bull case seems to be that there's still a lot of money on the sidelines and these people could potentially rush back in to kick the market up, but as the market went so far so fast, any unanticipated shocking news will crash the market as well.



Gotta love the tug of war and it sure makes things interesting! The bomb is definitely getting hotter and hotter. It's hard to sit out because the weather is so cold and crowding around helps you stay warm but just don't be left with it exploding in your face when it decides that time is up. :)
 
Speaking of RIMM, howz about a little tax tip?







Let us say you shorted Downey Financial back in the day.

You had to keep the required reserves, but the funds from the sale are deposited in your account.

The stock starts going down.

It keeps going down.

Stop congratulating yourself for a minute.

And what do you notice regarding your required reserves?

Yes, your "cash" has increased and your required reserves have lessened.

Fast forward to now.

Your account is almost all cash, which you may remove and spend, and your required reserves are almost nothing because DWN is DWNFQ and goes for $0.03 per share.

Since you have not bought to cover, you are not liable for capital gains.

Do not cover.

Ever.

If you have to, have the shares delivered.

But, do not cover.











You likey?
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1241483308][quote author="morekaos" date=1241221357][quote author="morekaos" date=1241141407]I get the feeling the Fed is hashing over that stress test result and is going to try and soft-shoe the results. I do think they will do everything possible to obfuscate and hide the problem. The numbers (although BS) may not be as bad as everyone expects</blockquote>


The wheels are turning. They are gonna find a way to spin this out as a positive...watch.



<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPVqgPJeDyzE&refer=worldwide">U.S. Bank Test Results Delayed as Conclusions Debated </a></blockquote>


Look over there!!!, that shiny ball!!! Isn't it pretty?



<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/04/us/politics/04stress.html?_r=1&ref=business">Tests of Banks May Bring Hope More Than Fear</a></blockquote>


Never fight the tape!!!...all too easy.
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1241817112][quote author="morekaos" date=1241483308][quote author="morekaos" date=1241221357][quote author="morekaos" date=1241141407]I get the feeling the Fed is hashing over that stress test result and is going to try and soft-shoe the results. I do think they will do everything possible to obfuscate and hide the problem. The numbers (although BS) may not be as bad as everyone expects</blockquote>


The wheels are turning. They are gonna find a way to spin this out as a positive...watch.



<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPVqgPJeDyzE&refer=worldwide">U.S. Bank Test Results Delayed as Conclusions Debated </a></blockquote>


Look over there!!!, that shiny ball!!! Isn't it pretty?



<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/04/us/politics/04stress.html?_r=1&ref=business">Tests of Banks May Bring Hope More Than Fear</a></blockquote>


Never fight the tape!!!...all too easy.</blockquote>


very recent rally (sp500 past 870ish) is just quants deleveraging, because their computer models tell them to do so. Once they catch up to the rest of the market and become somewhat delta neutral (covering), watch out. The rally past few days has virtually no volume and is drying up fast. Not to mention that NYSE insiders are dumping shares at ridicilous amounts. The deleveraging process can and probably will continue for another few days, maybe couple of weeks a month max. Sell off will come and it will be ugly...you shall see...you shall see.





If you haven't taken profits right now or added protection in someway shape or form..you are a fool.



may I die by my words if I'm wrong.
 
No doubt a correction is coming, but that didn't mitigate the obvious "good" news coming with this BS Stress Test. I am not condoning the legitimacy of this rally just that money can be made trading on the obvious
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1241836592]No doubt a correction is coming, but that didn't mitigate the obvious "good" news coming with this BS Stress Test. I am not condoning the legitimacy of this rally just that money can be made trading on the obvious</blockquote>


Oh absolutely, and I have done well speculating with BofA...hell not only did I buy the stock I dabbled with options.

Watching 10 cent option contract balloon to 2-3 bucks is quite nice. However, I have cashed out, moved to a neutral position, and have started dipping in the short position. The higher this goes, the more I will buy.



I wasnt spot on calling the bottom, however I started buying long when Dow was at 7000, more at 6800 and then finally 6500 was it. I might not be spot on, but I just need to be in the vicinity.



This is a government manipulated rally, and with the "stress tests" they went "all in". Stress tests are now a benchmark and they drew the line in the sand with 10.20 (dont recall but I think its 10.20) unemployment rate as being the worse case scenario. If we penetrate past that, all hell will break loose.



But you are correct, nothign wrong with going with the market, I was one of the first ones here buying and calling a pop, that we eventually got. But no way, am I drinking from this anymore....
 
[quote author="BlackVault CM2" date=1241836864][quote author="morekaos" date=1241836592]No doubt a correction is coming, but that didn't mitigate the obvious "good" news coming with this BS Stress Test. I am not condoning the legitimacy of this rally just that money can be made trading on the obvious</blockquote>


Oh absolutely, and I have done well speculating with BofA...hell not only did I buy the stock I dabbled with options.

Watching 10 cent option contract balloon to 2-3 bucks is quite nice. However, I have cashed out, moved to a neutral position, and have started dipping in the short position. The higher this goes, the more I will buy.



I wasnt spot on calling the bottom, however I started buying long when Dow was at 7000, more at 6800 and then finally 6500 was it. I might not be spot on, but I just need to be in the vicinity.



This is a government manipulated rally, and with the "stress tests" they went "all in". Stress tests are now a benchmark and they drew the line in the sand with 10.20 (dont recall but I think its 10.20) unemployment rate as being the worse case scenario. If we penetrate past that, all hell will break loose.



But you are correct, nothign wrong with going with the market, I was one of the first ones here buying and calling a pop, that we eventually got. But no way, am I drinking from this anymore....</blockquote>
You know this, the higher and fast this thing keeps going the harder the fall will be. (*evil smile*). This whole stress test will blow up in the gov't and banks face when we cross the 10% unemployment rate in the late summer. Man, Capital One is just asking to be shorted but I will resist. All cash for me with 10 SSO July puts for now.
 
This rally has been interesting lately. In the late stages of a parabolic blowoff, there are often violent one and two day moves against the trend followed by trend continuation. The lack of quiet days with sideways movement is indicative of an imminent trend reversal. I just wish I knew when... So far my April 30th prediction has proven incorrect.
 
getting the same feeling-market seems to be getting apprehensive the higher we go. things got too high too fast.



we just need the right thumbtack to pop the fake bubble-unemployment #'s could be it...earnings next qtr could be it. we know it's coming though...
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1241844274]This rally has been interesting lately. In the late stages of a parabolic blowoff, there are often violent one and two day moves against the trend followed by trend continuation. The lack of quiet days with sideways movement is indicative of an imminent trend reversal. I just wish I knew when... So far my April 30th prediction has proven incorrect.</blockquote>


One can't predict the timing...that is why positioning yourself in waves/phases is often the best solution. You can't be precise, just have to be in the vicinity. If we stay here in the next week or two without going up much further before we venture lower, I would consider your 30th prediction spot on.
 
[quote author="BlackVault CM2" date=1241850233][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1241844274]This rally has been interesting lately. In the late stages of a parabolic blowoff, there are often violent one and two day moves against the trend followed by trend continuation. The lack of quiet days with sideways movement is indicative of an imminent trend reversal. I just wish I knew when... So far my April 30th prediction has proven incorrect.</blockquote>


One can't predict the timing...that is why positioning yourself in waves/phases is often the best solution. You can't be precise, just have to be in the vicinity. If we stay here in the next week or two without going up much further before we venture lower, I would consider your 30th prediction spot on.</blockquote>
I'm thinking the S&P wants to flirt with that 1,000 magic number...what are your thoughts? Man, with every rally they are bringing in more and more suckers into this thing.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1241852587][quote author="BlackVault CM2" date=1241850233][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1241844274]This rally has been interesting lately. In the late stages of a parabolic blowoff, there are often violent one and two day moves against the trend followed by trend continuation. The lack of quiet days with sideways movement is indicative of an imminent trend reversal. I just wish I knew when... So far my April 30th prediction has proven incorrect.</blockquote>


One can't predict the timing...that is why positioning yourself in waves/phases is often the best solution. You can't be precise, just have to be in the vicinity. If we stay here in the next week or two without going up much further before we venture lower, I would consider your 30th prediction spot on.</blockquote>
I'm thinking the S&P wants to flirt with that 1,000 magic number...what are your thoughts? Man, with every rally they are bringing in more and more suckers into this thing.</blockquote>


Further thoughts will cost you! ;)
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1241483308][quote author="morekaos" date=1241221357][quote author="morekaos" date=1241141407]I get the feeling the Fed is hashing over that stress test result and is going to try and soft-shoe the results. I do think they will do everything possible to obfuscate and hide the problem. The numbers (although BS) may not be as bad as everyone expects</blockquote>


The wheels are turning. They are gonna find a way to spin this out as a positive...watch.



<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPVqgPJeDyzE&refer=worldwide">U.S. Bank Test Results Delayed as Conclusions Debated </a></blockquote>


Look over there!!!, that shiny ball!!! Isn't it pretty?



<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/04/us/politics/04stress.html?_r=1&ref=business">Tests of Banks May Bring Hope More Than Fear</a></blockquote>


Too predictable.



"When the Fed last month informed banks of its preliminary stress-test findings, executives at corporations including Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. were furious with what they viewed as the Fed?s exaggerated capital holes. A senior executive at one bank fumed that the Fed?s initial estimate was ?mind-numbingly? large. Bank of America was ?shocked? when it saw its initial figure, which was more than $50 billion, according to a person familiar with the negotiations."



<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124182311010302297.html#mod=rss_whats_news_us">Banks Won Concessions on Tests </a>
 
OK, it was just dumb luck, but I am feeling real smug right now.

A while back I sold some covered calls, June expiration with a strike of $10.00, against Silver Wheaton, SLW, for $0.70.

I put in a good until cancelled buy order at $0.10. looking for $0.60 on each share. If my stock gets called, I am good because I bought the stuff years ago and my basis is way low because of previous covered call writing. And chances are that if the share price gets close to $10, I will buy more.

A couple of days ago the call price is at $0.20. Do I cover or do I wait for the last $0.10? I cover at $0.20.

The stock immediately starts rising and I just checked the call price. $0.35 bid, $0.40 ask.

Yee-e-e-e hah!
 
This thing has slowed down so there's either no interest because the rally is mostly over or people aren't making easy money :) I've done well on oil and gasoline. Stayed away from everything else except TIPS.
 
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