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[quote author="BondTrader" date=1244239070][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244178573]Looks like the big boys want to fill up the elevator before they cut the cable....



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQ..PPtyU40g



I love how they keep focusing how oil is running up before of the economic recovery and don't need mention that the dollar has been getting crushed during this run up in oil. That being said, I'm not fighting the tape and sale 20 USO June puts and 20 SSO June puts. FAZ is on my radar screen as well.</blockquote>


I dip my toe into FAZ last week $4.32, looking to add more if this sucker rally continues, gold is consolidating as expected, looking to get back into DGP/SLV when gold gets around 900.</blockquote>
Great minds think alike...instead of actually buying FAZ, I sold 20 $4 June calls @ $.25. So if it drops below then my net basis would be $3.75 in 2,000 shares. If not, then I profit about $475. I've noticed that as we've gone higher, the trading volume has been declining. This tells me that the rally is losing some steam. Do you see the S&P heading oevr 1,000 before we head back down?
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244250253][quote author="BondTrader" date=1244239070][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244178573]Looks like the big boys want to fill up the elevator before they cut the cable....



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQ..PPtyU40g



I love how they keep focusing how oil is running up before of the economic recovery and don't need mention that the dollar has been getting crushed during this run up in oil. That being said, I'm not fighting the tape and sale 20 USO June puts and 20 SSO June puts. FAZ is on my radar screen as well.</blockquote>


I dip my toe into FAZ last week $4.32, looking to add more if this sucker rally continues, gold is consolidating as expected, looking to get back into DGP/SLV when gold gets around 900.</blockquote>
Great minds think alike...instead of actually buying FAZ, I sold 20 $4 June calls @ $.25. So if it drops below then my net basis would be $3.75 in 2,000 shares. If not, then I profit about $475. I've noticed that as we've gone higher, the trading volume has been declining. This tells me that the rally is losing some steam. Do you see the S&P heading oevr 1,000 before we head back down?</blockquote>


I still believe we will have 10-15% correction in June, before PPT rig it higher in July, so I'm accumulating short positions slowly. If we are lucky, we could see S&P over 1000 by end of summer, which creates excellent opp. for shorts and commodities longs. Regardless, the higher it goes, the harder it will fall.
 
[quote author="BondTrader" date=1244239070][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244178573]Looks like the big boys want to fill up the elevator before they cut the cable....



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQ..PPtyU40g



I love how they keep focusing how oil is running up before of the economic recovery and don't need mention that the dollar has been getting crushed during this run up in oil. That being said, I'm not fighting the tape and sale 20 USO June puts and 20 SSO June puts. FAZ is on my radar screen as well.</blockquote>


I dip my toe into FAZ last week $4.32, looking to add more if this sucker rally continues, gold is consolidating as expected, looking to get back into DGP/SLV when gold gets around 900.</blockquote>


Won't be surprised to see Gold near or below 900 this week as "they" have to defend the dollar while let the equity market fall this and next week while Fund Managers doing window dressing
 
[quote author="BondTrader" date=1245121887][quote author="BondTrader" date=1244239070][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244178573]Looks like the big boys want to fill up the elevator before they cut the cable....



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQ..PPtyU40g



I love how they keep focusing how oil is running up before of the economic recovery and don't need mention that the dollar has been getting crushed during this run up in oil. That being said, I'm not fighting the tape and sale 20 USO June puts and 20 SSO June puts. FAZ is on my radar screen as well.</blockquote>


I dip my toe into FAZ last week $4.32, looking to add more if this sucker rally continues, gold is consolidating as expected, looking to get back into DGP/SLV when gold gets around 900.</blockquote>


Won't be surprised to see Gold near or below 900 this week as "they" have to defend the dollar while let the equity market fall this and next week while Fund Managers doing window dressing</blockquote>
I sold 40 uncovered $24 SSO puts for $.50 weeks ago...I'm feeling somewhat comfy but I'm ready to pick up some $25 puts if need be. I mentioned this a few times, but the play the day before the Fed decision is to go LONG equities and sell right before the decision at 11am.
 
Received an email that a order to buy executed on some covered calls I had sold on SLW. I had completely forgot about the order.
 
[quote author="BondTrader" date=1245121887]

Won't be surprised to see Gold near or below 900 this week as "they" have to defend the dollar while let the equity market fall this and next week while Fund Managers doing window dressing</blockquote>


from my analysis, looks like gold has a good chance of hitting an all time high later this year (over a $1000/oz) before it settles into a 4-5 year bear market, reaching lows of about 400-500
 
<a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/unwinding-lehman-brothers/">STFU and watch the 20 min video. Shut up whiners, watch it!</a>
 
[quote author="BondTrader" date=1244260540][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244250253][quote author="BondTrader" date=1244239070][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244178573]Looks like the big boys want to fill up the elevator before they cut the cable....



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQ..PPtyU40g



I love how they keep focusing how oil is running up before of the economic recovery and don't need mention that the dollar has been getting crushed during this run up in oil. That being said, I'm not fighting the tape and sale 20 USO June puts and 20 SSO June puts. FAZ is on my radar screen as well.</blockquote>


I dip my toe into FAZ last week $4.32, looking to add more if this sucker rally continues, gold is consolidating as expected, looking to get back into DGP/SLV when gold gets around 900.</blockquote>
Great minds think alike...instead of actually buying FAZ, I sold 20 $4 June calls @ $.25. So if it drops below then my net basis would be $3.75 in 2,000 shares. If not, then I profit about $475. I've noticed that as we've gone higher, the trading volume has been declining. This tells me that the rally is losing some steam. Do you see the S&P heading oevr 1,000 before we head back down?</blockquote>


I still believe we will have 10-15% correction in June, before PPT rig it higher in July, so I'm accumulating short positions slowly. If we are lucky, we could see S&P over 1000 by end of summer, which creates excellent opp. for shorts and commodities longs. Regardless, the higher it goes, the harder it will fall.</blockquote>


So far the market has played out as expected, I still believe we will re-test the lows in March by year end
 
I am pretty impressed. Bondtrader was right on with gold heading back down to $900 range when it was trading around the $975 range. I really hope we crack the 4 digits and enter into uncharted territory soon.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1248328844]I am pretty impressed. Bondtrader was right on with gold heading back down to $900 range when it was trading around the $975 range. I really hope we crack the 4 digits and enter into uncharted territory soon.</blockquote>


As much as I love to see Gold stay firm above 1000, don't think the time is here yet. I put in some tight stop on my DGP. One thing is different in today's market is everything going in one direction and I expect the trend to continue at least for short term, which means if this market start to correct, commodities prices will go down with it. As I mentioned so many times before, deflation is still the game in town. Gold will start its run in about 18-24 months. And don't forget about sliver, which to me is way undervalued.
 
[quote author="BondTrader" date=1248393203][quote author="PANDA" date=1248328844]I am pretty impressed. Bondtrader was right on with gold heading back down to $900 range when it was trading around the $975 range. I really hope we crack the 4 digits and enter into uncharted territory soon.</blockquote>


As much as I love to see Gold stay firm above 1000, don't think the time is here yet. I put in some tight stop on my DGP. One thing is different in today's market is everything going in one direction and I expect the trend to continue at least for short term, which means if this market start to correct, commodities prices will go down with it. As I mentioned so many times before, deflation is still the game in town. Gold will start its run in about 18-24 months. And don't forget about sliver, which to me is way undervalued.</blockquote>


Got stopped out of my gold position. Stock down, oil down, gold down, time for Fed to defend the dollar while try to print $200 bn this week.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1250129542]Bondtrader,



I think that the DOW will hit 9,800 soon! Stick with just the DOG or double or triple short the DOW?</blockquote>


For you, DOG, dont play with the 2x, 3x stuff. But I seriously believe we should have a correction in days to come(S&P 850-950 range) before we have another leg up in Oct (positive Q3 GDP). By the way, if you wanna hedge your commodities positions, pm me.
 
Made a great little play yesterday/today....picked up 60 SSO $31 August Calls at $.65 yesterday before close and sold them today for $1.00 before the Fed decision. 16 out of the last 18 Fed meeting days, if you go long at the close the day before the Fed meeting and sell right before the Fed decision you will would have made money. One of those 18 days were basically flat with only one losing day.
 
<span style="color: red;"><strong>Posted: 23 March 2009 12:31 PM [ # 801 ] </strong></span>

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Total Posts: 867

Joined 2007-05-03 I did this friday but thought some here might find it interesting..



Happy Friday!! Something to chew on this weekend as both an idea and to lend some perspective. I chose four of our countries most prestigious industrial companies. Names you are probably familiar with. In fact two are still in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Together they have a combined gross revenue around $292 Billion dollars. You could buy all 4 companies in proportionate $5000.00 pieces ($20,000.00 total investment) today and capture all that revenue, earnings and growth. Even if some should fail, most will survive and thrive, these four names are important industrial components. To put this into some perspective of the overly dramatic tone in today?s markets I calculated the cost of purchasing these very same names six months ago to the day. I think you will find the comparisons interesting.



Company Quantity Date Price Cost Date Price Cost



GE 530 3/20/2009 9.30 5067.86 9/19/2008 26.62 14,354.67

Alcoa 800 3/20/2009 6.31 5208.42 9/19/2008 26.79 21,777.90

International Paper 720 3/20/2009 6.92 5136.04 9/19/2008 28.92 21,157.13

Dow Chemical 650 3/20/2008 7.63 5107.66 9/19/2008 37.56 24,774.67

??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????-

Total cost $20519.98 (today) $82064.37 (6 months ago)



What a difference 6 months makes huh? I think this both illustrates the disconnect between pricing and reality but also highlights the significant opportunity that panic can present us. Something to think about. Have a great weekend!!



<strong>I have to admit...I sold this whole portfolio today. I will post the totals tomorrow.</strong>
 
^^^ Are you really Doug Kass? Both of you had bottom calls in March, and now today you both say you are out. Actually, Doug more specifically is bearish again: <a href="http://www.thestreet.com/story/10569021/1/kass-a-summary-of-my-bearishness.html">A Summary of My Bearishness</a>
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1237861885]I did this friday but thought some here might find it interesting..



Happy Friday!! Something to chew on this weekend as both an idea and to lend some perspective. I chose four of our countries most prestigious industrial companies. Names you are probably familiar with. In fact two are still in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Together they have a combined gross revenue around $292 Billion dollars. You could buy all 4 companies in proportionate $5000.00 pieces ($20,000.00 total investment) today and capture all that revenue, earnings and growth. Even if some should fail, most will survive and thrive, these four names are important industrial components. To put this into some perspective of the overly dramatic tone in today's markets I calculated the cost of purchasing these very same names six months ago to the day. I think you will find the comparisons interesting.



Company Quantity Date Price Cost Date Price Cost



GE 530 3/20/2009 9.30 5067.86 9/19/2008 26.62 14,354.67

Alcoa 800 3/20/2009 6.31 5208.42 9/19/2008 26.79 21,777.90

International Paper 720 3/20/2009 6.92 5136.04 9/19/2008 28.92 21,157.13

Dow Chemical 650 3/20/2008 7.63 5107.66 9/19/2008 37.56 24,774.67

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total cost $20519.98 (today) $82064.37 (6 months ago)



What a difference 6 months makes huh? I think this both illustrates the disconnect between pricing and reality but also highlights the significant opportunity that panic can present us. Something to think about. Have a great weekend!!</blockquote>


No, just me. However, I am not out of the markets. I always maintain some positions. I just felt this one has run its course and not to be greedy.



Here is how it played out:



Company Quantity Sale price Proceeds <strong>Profit</strong>

GE 530 $14.10 7473 <strong>2406</strong>

AA 800 $13.01 10408 <strong>5200 </strong>

IP 720 $20.30 14616 <strong>9480</strong>

DOW 650 $22.57 14670 <strong>9563</strong>

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Total $47167 <span style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong>$26649</strong></span></span> <strong> 130% on invested dollar in five months, not including dividends...I'll take that</strong>.
 
[quote author="BondTrader" date=1250132305][quote author="PANDA" date=1250129542]Bondtrader,



I think that the DOW will hit 9,800 soon! Stick with just the DOG or double or triple short the DOW?</blockquote>


For you, DOG, dont play with the 2x, 3x stuff. But I seriously believe we should have a correction in days to come(S&P 850-950 range) before we have another leg up in Oct (positive Q3 GDP). By the way, if you wanna hedge your commodities positions, pm me.</blockquote>


Just a quick update, most likely S&P will go down to around 925-950 range in the next couple weeks before we bounce back in Oct, how far they gonna push this thing is anyone's guess, I'm calling for close to 1200 before the big down treand starts in Q1 or Q2 2010
 
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