So when's the next IHB gathering?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Not a single one of those guys are big (read: fat) enough to be me... you need pictures of Mongolians.



I'd like to meet AZDave... but only because I want to see him back up the smack he talks online. And yes... I've seen his pictures of him in a Karate Gi... but that just makes me wonder more... computer programmers who talk about their nerd projects:



<a href="http://www.crackthecode.us">www.crackthecode.us</a>



... and then try to counter with the fact they they know martial arts:



<img src="http://www.crackthecode.us/david_shoto.jpg">



So not only are you smart... but you can fight too? <swoon>



(maybe that will bring him back to the forums)
 
Actually, that photo is just part of a form. I am not interested in the spar "fighting" competition type of stuff. You don't need to know martial arts to be a fighter - the majority of it is a junk / smoke and mirrors product that is marketed for sale to children.



Why are you wanting to fight? If you have been reading my work then you obviously know that I have too much to lose by trying to piss farther than you.
 
[quote author="AZDavidPhx" date=1243908751]Actually, that photo is just part of a form. I am not interested in the spar "fighting" competition type of stuff. You don't need to know martial arts to be a fighter - the majority of it is a junk / smoke and mirrors product that is marketed for sale to children.



Why are you wanting to fight? If you have been reading my work then you obviously know that I have too much to lose by trying to piss farther than you.</blockquote>
Who said I want to fight?



But I do want to know what's the point of posting "form" pictures on a computer science themed site... unless you are going after some Matrix-style look. You make fun of Irvinite lifestyles in your many photoshop posts while your own site seems to possess the same incongruity. Unless... you're actually "cracking" the code with a forward punch... or marketing it for "sale to children".



As I write this... I realize it's probably inflammatory and you don't want to get in a "pissing" match... but I've read enough commentary from you about what you think of Irvine and maybe I have no idea what martial arts has to do with computer science... but by the same token... how does a guy who lives in Phoenix know so much about living in Irvine? Generalization seems to be your weapon of choice... but you don't seem to want to use it when challenged directly.



Maybe that's why you don't want to post in the forums... because it requires you to have some follow-through (which incidentally... is what I'm looking for... hence the phrase "back up the smack"... not actual physical confrontation).



I apologize in advance if I'm being a Ghostbusters idiot again.
 
<blockquote>But I do want to know what's the point of posting "form" pictures on a computer science themed site... unless you are going after some Matrix-style look. </blockquote>


You are knocking my personal website now. You are right though - the Matrix look did influence the design of it. The banner image of the 1's and 0's came straight from a matrix image. I thought that the images were cool looking and gave the page some character. You are free to hate on it all you want.



<blockquote>You make fun of Irvinite lifestyles in your many photoshop posts</blockquote>


So what? Why can't you laugh at it? People refer to Scottsdale, AZ as "Snotsdale, AZ" and I don't go bursting a vein when I hear it.



<blockquote>while your own site seems to possess the same incongruity. Unless... you're actually "cracking" the code with a forward punch... or marketing it for "sale to children".</blockquote>


I don't understand what this means. Huh? It's my personal website - it's there for anyone who is interested in what I do. You are dissecting it and deciphering some hidden meaning in every pixel.



<blockquote>but I've read enough commentary from you about what you think of Irvine</blockquote>


You are implying that I have some animosity toward Irvine. I've said several times out on the blog that I'm sure Irvine is a nice place to live. Maybe you forgot about that.



<blockquote>and maybe I have no idea what martial arts has to do with computer science...</blockquote>


It is my personal website. What is this, China and the content police?



<blockquote>but by the same token... how does a guy who lives in Phoenix know so much about living in Irvine?</blockquote>


I know nothing about living in Irvine. But I do know how to compare and contrast housing values versus incomes in a specific zip code and that does not require having feet on the ground. I also know a thing or two about California speculators inflating bubbles in AZ (Yes, this did happen).



<blockquote>Generalization seems to be your weapon of choice... but you don't seem to want to use it when challenged directly.</blockquote>


What do you think this statement of yours is? It's a generalization.



If this were true then I would have no problem coming over to these forums each day to fire off a few troll shots, get my jollies, and be on my way.



<blockquote>Maybe that's why you don't want to post in the forums... because it requires you to have some follow-through</blockquote>


The main blog has a different topic each day and these forums are more relevant to Irvine-area locals whereas the main blog has just enough generic housing bubble debate that outsiders can be relevant.
 
See... that's more like it... you actually stayed around instead of just disappearing... that's what I'm looking for.

[quote author="AZDavidPhx" date=1243913623]You are implying that I have some animosity toward Irvine. I've said several times out on the blog that I'm sure Irvine is a nice place to live. Maybe you forgot about that.

</blockquote>
I've probably missed those posts so [strike]there[/strike] their number must be much smaller than the ones that bash Irvine... and I don't think I'm the only one who feels that way.

<blockquote><blockquote>but by the same token... how does a guy who lives in Phoenix know so much about living in Irvine?</blockquote>
I know nothing about living in Irvine. But I do know how to compare and contrast housing values versus incomes in a specific zip code and that does not require having feet on the ground.

</blockquote>
While I agree that you can compare those numbers, you must also agree that you can't fully understand the psychology behind why buyers are keeping the values higher in Irvine. That does require feet on the ground and knowing about living in Irvine. I assume you don't have kids and that even puts you at a greater disadvantage of not understanding the need for quality education and a safe family friendly environment. Housing "value" goes beyond the numbers for many people. It's the one thing that fundamentals can't really measure and should be taken into account.



I guess it's kind of hard find deep value in your posts because I don't know if you're in the housing industry (maybe your're a builder or a broker), you don't live in Irvine, and you're pursuing a Master in Computer Science... not real estate or finance. The forums give more insight to that and maybe that's why we would like to see you post here more.

<blockquote>

<blockquote>Generalization seems to be your weapon of choice... but you don't seem to want to use it when challenged directly.</blockquote>
What do you think this statement of yours is? It's a generalization.

</blockquote>
Uh... yeah... that was the point. I guess I need to learn how to use those smiley face things.

<blockquote><blockquote>Maybe that's why you don't want to post in the forums... because it requires you to have some follow-through</blockquote>


The main blog has a different topic each day and these forums are more relevant to Irvine-area locals whereas the main blog has just enough generic housing bubble debate that outsiders can be relevant.</blockquote>
That's fair... but the main blog is usually about <strong>Irvine</strong> homes, so it does require a little local perspective. But there is also a General Forum here now to for the "outsiders". Many of your posts that aren't poking at Irvine specifically holds good information and maybe that area will benefit from your presence.



But it's your choice... commenting on the main blog may be more convenient for you but just like any poster who isn't from Irvine... it's a bit offsetting to see all those comments from someone who doesn't actually understand what it's like to live here and makes no effort to do so.



EDIT: I'm so OCD about spelling.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1243917473]I guess I need to learn how to use those smiley face things.</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/smileys/">Your wish is granted.</a> :coolsmile:
 
<blockquote>you must also agree that you can't fully understand the psychology behind why buyers are keeping the values higher in Irvine.</blockquote>


True. If the locals want to keep the house values higher in Irvine then I have no problem with that so long as they plan on paying back every penny that they borrow. The part where I begin to have a problem is where people optimisitcally borrow a whole bunch of money using flakey financial products while figuring that the next guy will do the actual payoff. Their plan is to make payments for awhile; 5 years, 10 years, but certainly not 30 years (That's a long time) and then cash out.



As we are seeing now - basically none of these borrowers intend to make good on their debt. They go underwater and then they walk. A lot of them have the means to keep paying, but they choose not to anyway. The safety and good schools suddenly become second priority once the value of the house goes underwater.



<blockquote>I assume you don't have kids and that even puts you at a greater disadvantage of not understanding the need for quality education and a safe family friendly environment. </blockquote>


I don't have kids, but I definitely don't want to go back to living next to the drug dealers like back in the college days.



<blockquote>Housing "value" goes beyond the numbers for many people. It's the one thing that fundamentals can't really measure and should be taken into account.</blockquote>


You are very right and I do think that this is dangerous thinking which leads people off the cliff under delusions of grandeur. Look at what is happening right now because people were thinking beyond the numbers. My savings account is now paying me 0.995%. I have been forced to rent for the last 4 years because I was not willing to up the ante on my borrowing one-upsmanship. The money that I send to the government is now being transferred back into the banking class (a.k.a "elites") after years of people crying Socialism whenever "some hippy" would start popping off nonsense about healthcare for all. I have friends that have been laid off and are surviving on 265.00$ a week unemployment insurance with no indication that things are getting better. I wait each day to find out if it is my turn to join the ranks. This is just the realty of the state of our economy. It's not my fault - I didn't overborrow. I have lived below my means while many others did not because I was too caught up with details like numbers and I am to be punished by helping pay. While I have been renting, I have also had the luxury of subsidizing the mortgage interest deduction for my neighbors who overborrowed figuring they would use the community coffers to subsidize their house purchase and for what? So we can enable a new wave of debt slaves to come in and take the debt load off of the previous generation?



I would just say that if you want to see beyond the numbers, just do so with your own numbers - not someone else's and acknowledge that affordability is not just figuring out what monthly payment will bankrupt you and then backing off by a penny or so.



<blockquote>I guess it's kind of hard find deep value in your posts because I don't know if you're in the housing industry (maybe your're a builder or a broker)</blockquote>


Nope.



<blockquote>That's fair... but the main blog is usually about <strong>Irvine</strong> homes, so it does require a little local perspective</blockquote>.



Yes, but the main blog is more than just about Irvine houses. It's about the debt and the bad loans that enabled these people leverage themselves into the extreme.



<blockquote>it's a bit offsetting to see all those comments from someone who doesn't actually understand what it's like to live here and makes no effort to do so.</blockquote>


I don't think it is sacred but like I said before, I'm sure it's a nice place to live.
 
See... this is where being an "outsider" has its advantages as it does provide a non-Irvine perspective.



It's tough... because it cuts both ways. But beyond the hyperbolic image posting... I do appreciate some of the insight that you provide when it comes to logic-based thinking (which CompSci types are prone to using).



As much as people in Irvine have used exotic financing and HELOCs to overleverage themselves... I am of the opinion that it's magnitudes worse in other areas because the percentage of people who can still afford the resets and the underwater loans is higher in Irvine than elsewhere. I know graphcakes likes to prove me wrong with his pretty ForeclosureRadar images... but if you overlay that on foreclosures and average pricing elsewhere... you'll see this abuse has much more impact on areas outside Irvine.



Maybe it's easier to focus on the Irvine family that actually has a 6-figure household income and overextends itself with HELOC abuse because of their delusions of grandeur (ie MBZ/BMW/LCD)... than on families with true undocumented income and can't afford that $500k house now that it's worth only $100k because of their delusions of home ownership. Does the type of "greed" make it different?



Sure... I can blame every median income person who financed themselves into luxury and then walked away leaving the bank with the mess... but that doesn't mean I'm giving a pass to every low income family who basically did the same thing. I think that's one thing that gets missed on all the schadenfreude being thrown around... it's not just the greedy who got us into this mess... it was also the needy.
 
IHO and AZDave both have perspective about Irvine. Irvine the last 15 years attracted 80% of its buyers from an 8 miles radius and outsiders with their thinking would find buying in Irvine ridiculous and stupid. This is one of the primary reasons people like Az would not buy in Irvine from a statistical point of view. The cultural aspects and the anti-mugging environment to IHO is totally worth it to pay the higher price.



So who are the 20% outsiders. They are job transferred families and CK's relatives and friends from San Gabriel Valley (near LA).
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1243923095]

I am of the opinion that it's magnitudes worse in other areas because the percentage of people who can still afford the resets and the underwater loans is higher in Irvine than elsewhere. </blockquote>


Most of the "outlying areas" you are talking about involved sub-prime lending. That is why they have been hit hard up to now, as most of those loans have reset. All the damage you see there is from FC action initiated a year or more ago.



Irvine has/had very little sub-prime. Irvine has alt-a and various ARMS. These are only now reseting (and actually, it is not the resets that much matter, but the recasts when they go from IO to amortizing). Since they are only now starting to change terms, and it takes a year to move through the FC process (and these borrowers may yet have cash to delay FC), the actual carnage will not start to pile up in <strong>Irvine for another year or two.</strong>
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1243924340]

So who are the 20% outsiders?</blockquote>


<img src="http://www.livingstonoutloud.com/archives/1_4/images/subdivision.jpg" alt="" />
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1243923095]As much as people in Irvine have used exotic financing and HELOCs to overleverage themselves... I am of the opinion that it's magnitudes worse in other areas because the percentage of people who can still afford the resets and the underwater loans is higher in Irvine than elsewhere. I know graphcakes likes to prove me wrong with his pretty ForeclosureRadar images... but if you overlay that on foreclosures and average pricing elsewhere... you'll see this abuse has much more impact on areas outside Irvine.</blockquote>


Whoa there buddy... first I almost feel like I am defending AZDavid. Second are you not a visual person, or do I just need to use plain old numbers?



Here is the latest from foreclosure radar, up now to 725 in some stage default from 698 two weeks ago. Just a reminder the image only captures 462 and I cut off some up in West Irvine.



http://i40.tinypic.com/2505gtk.jpg



And what are you talking about other areas are worse than precious Irvine? Tustin has less in foreclosure than Irvine, so does Aliso Viejo and Laguna Hills when combined than Irvine. If you really want to see how bad Irvine is doing, then I can do the ratio of foreclosure per owner occupied housing. Trust me, you don't want me to do that, because it might be a little embarrassing. Irvine is getting whacked by foreclosures right now, it just took a little longer for it to join the rest of us, so it will be worse for Irvine in the coming months. Next time you start going off about foreclosures, you might want to do a little research before you do.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1243942437][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1243923095]As much as people in Irvine have used exotic financing and HELOCs to overleverage themselves... I am of the opinion that it's magnitudes worse in other areas because the percentage of people who can still afford the resets and the underwater loans is higher in Irvine than elsewhere. I know graphcakes likes to prove me wrong with his pretty ForeclosureRadar images... but if you overlay that on foreclosures and average pricing elsewhere... you'll see this abuse has much more impact on areas outside Irvine.</blockquote>


Whoa there buddy... first I almost feel like I am defending AZDavid. Second are you not a visual person, or do I just need to use plain old numbers?



Here is the latest from foreclosure radar, up now to 725 in some stage default from 698 two weeks ago. Just a reminder the image only captures 462 and I cut off some up in West Irvine.



http://i40.tinypic.com/2505gtk.jpg



And what are you talking about other areas are worse than precious Irvine? Tustin has less in foreclosure than Irvine, so does Aliso Viejo and Laguna Hills when combined than Irvine. If you really want to see how bad Irvine is doing, then I can do the ratio of foreclosure per owner occupied housing. Trust me, you don't want me to do that, because it might be a little embarrassing. Irvine is getting whacked by foreclosures right now, it just took a little longer for it to join the rest of us, so it will be worse for Irvine in the coming months. Next time you start going off about foreclosures, you might want to do a little research before you do.</blockquote>
Nice thread jack Graph. haha I do find the chart porn very pretty. I think that most people don't realize that home owners used those toxic loans as much as they did or ODed on HELOC kool-aid. But they fact they did and then some. The reality is that the Irvine homeowners are the strongest cards that will eventually fold. Think about it...Ghettoside, San BFE, and Vegas already went through the massive foreclosures because those areas where there the flippers, speculators, and sub prime folks flocked (they were the weak links and shaken out first). Think about it, the average Irvine homeowner on the verge of foreclosure will fight tooth and nail to try to make it but will not succeed. It's like chinese water torture for them and the folks that are waiting for prices in Irvine to come down.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1243942437]And what are you talking about other areas are worse than precious Irvine? Tustin has less in foreclosure than Irvine, so does Aliso Viejo and Laguna Hills when combined than Irvine. If you really want to see how bad Irvine is doing, then I can do the ratio of foreclosure per owner occupied housing. Trust me, you don't want me to do that, because it might be a little embarrassing. Irvine is getting whacked by foreclosures right now, it just took a little longer for it to join the rest of us, so it will be worse for Irvine in the coming months. Next time you start going off about foreclosures, you might want to do a little research before you do.</blockquote>
Nice charts... and I can always count on you to not totally read my posts.



You are mistaking me thinking Irvine isn't going to fall (which I don't) and how I feel about who was responsible for the situation we are in.



Again... I understand Irvine is going to get hit hard... but it wasn't where I was going... and I wasn't just talking about pending foreclosures but all foreclosures, subprime loans, exotic financing etc... my point (which you are so good at missing) is it's not just Irvine that is guilty... but everywhere outside of Irvine is just as guilty for this bubble and it's not just the Irvinites whose greed has put us where we are at (which is what I was talking about with AZDave).



Again... it's the nature of this blog to point out the sins of Irvine homeowners... and I'm just presenting some perspective. It's not just about the evil HELOCers... it's also the innocent garderner who thought home ownership in Victorville was the key to happiness.



Relax the grouchy pants... there's nothing to see here.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1243950330]Nice charts... and I can always count on you to not totally read my posts.



You are mistaking me thinking Irvine isn't going to fall (which I don't) and how I feel about who was responsible for the situation we are in.



Again... I understand Irvine is going to get hit hard... but it wasn't where I was going... and I wasn't just talking about pending foreclosures but all foreclosures, subprime loans, exotic financing etc... my point (which you are so good at missing) is it's not just Irvine that is guilty... but everywhere outside of Irvine is just as guilty for this bubble and it's not just the Irvinites whose greed has put us where we are at (which is what I was talking about with AZDave).



Again... it's the nature of this blog to point out the sins of Irvine homeowners... and I'm just presenting some perspective. It's not just about the evil HELOCers... it's also the innocent garderner who thought home ownership in Victorville was the key to happiness.



Relax the grouchy pants... there's nothing to see here.</blockquote>


Man... and here I thought I had a perfectly good reason to put on the cranky pants. Thanks for ruining that. Now we can return to the mundanely repetitive nice IHB forums. Here I thought you would help me break out of my boredom doldrums. Has BK said anything that can be misinterpreted as racist lately? I need to fire things up around here.



BTW, it didn't make the news, but some drunk white guy was running around Irvine in his LV underwear after the Lakers won on Friday. I have a feeling it was CK.
 
It's okay... odds are I will post some IHO-nugget that either you or BK can bash on.



I didn't know white guys wear LV underwear... maybe it was BK... he's kind of light-skinned.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1243952284]It's okay... odds are I will post some IHO-nugget that either you or BK can bash on.



I didn't know white guys wear LV underwear... maybe it was BK... he's kind of light-skinned.</blockquote>


You need to get to know CK... he and his wife have a serious LV validation situation going on. Ask BK about his LV wallet he busted out at the last meet up. The next meet up he will show us his LV logo tattoo he has on his shoulder. Here everyone thought he was a tough marine with a semper fi tattoo, but oh noooo... he is true Irvinite with his LV tat. If you show up, he can show you his underwear if you promise not to turn him in to the IPD. BTW, the description of the suspect was very fair skin, blond hair, right hand had bottle of beer, left hand had a bottle of jager. With that amount of evidence, we don't need BK to use his skills to know that there are only a few, if not one single person like that in Irvine. This also happened in West Irvine. Deuce was most likely an accomplice, so keep it on the DL.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1243923095]

As much as people in Irvine have used exotic financing and HELOCs to overleverage themselves... I am of the opinion that it's magnitudes worse in other areas because the percentage of people who can still afford the resets and the underwater loans is higher in Irvine than elsewhere.</blockquote>


This may be true for the moment, but the economy is all interconnected one way shape or form. However, even I wonder how many of the people living there are fakers. We are going to find out when all of these Option-ARMS start recasting and Ponzi scheme re-financing isn't available anymore.



The longer that the depression lingers the more likely it is that even the fancy pants "well to do" are going to be impacted. Naturally, the first shoe to drop was the poor on the subprime end of the spectrum. The wealthier have more resources which is going to allow them to hold out longer, but it shouldn't matter because the banks are now being screwed by prime borrowers defaulting as well. It's going to make it that much harder to find your jumbo loan in the future.



<blockquote>but if you overlay that on foreclosures and average pricing elsewhere... you'll see this abuse has much more impact on areas outside Irvine.</blockquote>


Maybe, I don't know - but even if that is the case, Irvine still has a problem. When a P.O.S 700 SQFT condo is asking 300K - there is something horribly wrong with speculators dominating the market. I wouldn't care if these speculators were using their own money, but they are only using a fraction of their own money. The rest of it is coming from banks who basically have no skin in the game because they very well know that when the S hits the fan, the government is going to declare them "too big to fail" and wire over a care-package. The consequences for all the parties are too weak to have a deterring effect so we are stuck with rampant speculation by anyone who can get their hands on a loan; prices then rise to whatever the average fool can borrow and the responsible are priced out. Speculation is not good for anybody except those at the top as the majority of participants get burned in the end yet the government's actions are making fools of the fiscally conservative by rewarding all this gluttony with bailouts, mortgage reductuctions, artificially low interest rates, etc.



<blockquote>I think that's one thing that gets missed on all the schadenfreude being thrown around... it's not just the greedy who got us into this mess... it was also the needy.</blockquote>


I am not going to defend any of the characters involved. There is a huge lack of accountability on the parts of everyone involved - from the irresponsible borrowers, to the predatory lenders/brokers, to the commission-chasing realtors, to the financial voodoo pricks on Wall Street turning piles of subprime feces into bundles of roses; there is blame to go all around. While all of the bad actors sit around pointing fingers at one another, the people such as myself who tried to be responsible are out mopping up the mess and will be passing the mop down to future generations because of a horrible government that has thrown the people overboard in order to save its business partners first.



However, I think that CA does deserve its lion's share of the blame. The culture has become jaded and full of hubris; a melting pot of bubble chasers and casino mentality. California needs to experience a long drawn-out recession to cleanse the attitudes of its people. Peter Schiff often says that the recession is not the problem; it's the cure. I agree with that.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1243924340]This is one of the primary reasons people like Az would not buy in Irvine from a statistical point of view. The cultural aspects and the anti-mugging environment to IHO is totally worth it to pay the higher price. </blockquote>


That's all well and good - I just ask that people who are willing to pay the premium do so with their own money or otherwise be reserved to living in a debtor's prison for the rest of their life if they do not pay back every penny of what they borrow.



7 years in a credit-score "time out" box is not severe enough. It's a joke. We hold deadbeat dad's responsible for 18 years worth of child-support payments on their kids but we allow deadbeat borrowers to walk with nothing more than a blemish on a database record. Why can't we hold borrowers responsible like we do parents who do not pay for their children's living expenses? The system is completely upside down. There needs to be a real consequence, but of course it is not going to happen because the business pricks who own this country depend on foolish borrowers to live in debt and make payments. Scaring the masses away from borrowing with a serious consequence is bad for business in their eyes so the government is not going to have that so instead they impose a neutered system that is just enough to keep the honest people honest and just lame enough to allow the hustlers to game it at the expense of everyone else.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1243954845]BTW, the description of the suspect was very fair skin, blond hair, right hand had bottle of beer, left hand had a bottle of jager. With that amount of evidence, we don't need BK to use his skills to know that there are only a few, if not one single person like that in Irvine. </blockquote>


Yeah, that was me. I was actually on my way over to Chapman for their annual "undie run". But once I managed to jog over by the Vila Park area this strange dude driving a blue rice rocket with My Little Pony vanity plates started following me. I got nervous so I turned around and headed back toward West Irvine. Thankfully this nice gentleman named Scott driving a Bentley stopped to pick me up, and gave me a ride home. He even gave me some great advice during the drive: "With interest rates at an all time low, now is a great time to buy or sell a home". I invited him to the IHB meetup, so he could share his insights with the rest of you.
 
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