SALT Deduction
- Thread starter DrTravel
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NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
It did affect the market for sure. I agree with you like you suggested not to buy last year as I also think last year was the worst time to buy IMO. But people kinda stopped buying because of the seasonality, ridiculous listing prices and also the fear of this new tax plan would not benefit like it used to. It seems though because of other factors, people are not much affected by it in the overall tax calculations or even got more benefits for some reason as some TI members are saying. The housing tax alone might have been a little less attractive, but because of new bracket systems, maybe it turned out not as bad? I could be wrong. I?m just guessing from how people including myself thought it was going to be so bad, but surprised to see some benefits at the end. Well, I was only interested how it would affect the housing market so I guess we will see how it plays.
What effects for the economy? I mean we are blowing up the federal deficit but no one cares about that during a GOP presidency.
Basically...what I have gotten from the GOP was that "we cut taxes for rich people and the economy didn't tank"...I guess that's the standard now.
There are a ton of warning signs...question is what the tax cut did to help the economy? All those factor were already on the plus side prior to the tax cut.
Bottom line number: 2.9% GDP in 2018...about 2% projection in 2019...about 1.5% projection in 2020...what did the tax cut do?
The tax cuts did the same thing the government always does which is the same thing most addicts do when their buzz is wearing off and they don't have any product.
2.9% GDP in 2018 was a real thing.
2014: 2.5
2015: 2.9
2016: 1.6
2017: 2.3
2018: 2.9
Are you predicting GDP growth in 2019 to be better than 2.9%?
Again...no one is disputing that tax cuts spurs some level of growth. The contention is whether it's a temporary sugar high or a sustainable long term economic strategy. Most experts agree that the effects of the tax cut is most felt in the first year of the cut...which is basically 2018. Trump and his advisors stated that the tax cuts will usher in 3-4% growth in the next 10 years...we have not even hit that in year 1.
I mean...the man was predicting 4 to 6% growth:
And you understand that cutting taxes during a time of economic growth is also dumb because the effects will be next to nothing...companies were already hoarding a ton of cash and unemployment already super low.
So...3% growth for the next 9 years? And it doesn't happen and the predictions are accurate...would that be Trump's fault or someone's fault.
Oh how about the deficit? I guess that's not a thing anymore.
Mety: take a look at these poll numbers
Politico Article: On Tax Day, Trump tax cuts remain deeply unpopular
A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that just 17 percent of Americans believe their own taxes will go down as a result of the bill. A CBS News poll found that 40 percent said they saw no change from the tax bill. And more said it drove their taxes up (32 percent) than lowered their tax bill (25 percent.)
The bill itself has been unpopular from the start and remains so.
A Pew Research Center survey conducted last month found that 36 percent of Americans approve of the tax-cut law while 49 percent disapprove. Even the number of Republicans who strongly approve of the law dipped in the latest Pew survey.
White House officials? response to the unpopularity of the tax cut is basically: Who cares?
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/15/donald-trump-tax-cuts-unpopular-1273469
morekaos
Well-known member
Really still think its minimal or just anecdotal?
9 Apocalyptic Lies Fed To Americans About The Republican Tax Bill
https://thefederalist.com/2019/04/15/9-apocalyptic-lies-fed-to-americans-about-the-republican-tax-bill/
9 Apocalyptic Lies Fed To Americans About The Republican Tax Bill
https://thefederalist.com/2019/04/15/9-apocalyptic-lies-fed-to-americans-about-the-republican-tax-bill/
eyephone said:
It did affect the market for sure. I agree with you like you suggested not to buy last year as I also think last year was the worst time to buy IMO. But people kinda stopped buying because of the seasonality, ridiculous listing prices and also the fear of this new tax plan would not benefit like it used to. It seems though because of other factors, people are not much affected by it in the overall tax calculations or even got more benefits for some reason as some TI members are saying. The housing tax alone might have been a little less attractive, but because of new bracket systems, maybe it turned out not as bad? I could be wrong. I?m just guessing from how people including myself thought it was going to be so bad, but surprised to see some benefits at the end. Well, I was only interested how it would affect the housing market so I guess we will see how it plays.
My other new point don?t let an agent tell you the big tax benefit of buying a house.
I remember an agent told me it only cost $100 to fix the ac. When the ac unit won?t even turn on. We all know that?s not true unless you buy the part and do it yourself. That?s even stretching to say the part cost would be $100. We actually replaced an AC unit at below market price of course. The cost was more than $100 that I can tell you. (Btw: the ac guy we knew retired or else I would share the contact info)
I remember an agent told me it only cost $100 to fix the ac. When the ac unit won?t even turn on. We all know that?s not true unless you buy the part and do it yourself. That?s even stretching to say the part cost would be $100. We actually replaced an AC unit at below market price of course. The cost was more than $100 that I can tell you. (Btw: the ac guy we knew retired or else I would share the contact info)
Irvinecommuter
New member
morekaos said:
What effects for the economy? I mean we are blowing up the federal deficit but no one cares about that during a GOP presidency.
Basically...what I have gotten from the GOP was that "we cut taxes for rich people and the economy didn't tank"...I guess that's the standard now.
morekaos
Well-known member
Well which gauge do you want to judge growth? GDP? up, Wages? up, Capital formation? up job creation? up corporate earnings? up, unemployment? down, housing? up, manufacturing? up, Capex? up. personal wealth? up. We can argue the minutiae of magnitudes but there is little that shows weakness.
https://youtu.be/MMzd40i8TfA
https://youtu.be/MMzd40i8TfA
https://youtu.be/MMzd40i8TfA
https://youtu.be/MMzd40i8TfA
Irvinecommuter
New member
morekaos said:
There are a ton of warning signs...question is what the tax cut did to help the economy? All those factor were already on the plus side prior to the tax cut.
Bottom line number: 2.9% GDP in 2018...about 2% projection in 2019...about 1.5% projection in 2020...what did the tax cut do?
nosuchreality
Well-known member
Irvinecommuter said:
The tax cuts did the same thing the government always does which is the same thing most addicts do when their buzz is wearing off and they don't have any product.
morekaos
Well-known member
No one is arguing that the business cycle has been repealed but you cant give an inch to any causal argument linking tax cuts with growth because it would give Trump some positive credit. It all has to be an amazing coincidence or hapless bumbling, huh? Oh, a recession will come, thats a fact, but velocity of the growth phase was pushed along by this tax plan, like it or not.
Irvinecommuter
New member
morekaos said:
2.9% GDP in 2018 was a real thing.
2014: 2.5
2015: 2.9
2016: 1.6
2017: 2.3
2018: 2.9
Are you predicting GDP growth in 2019 to be better than 2.9%?
morekaos
Well-known member
Wouldn't surprise me. The same way I wasn't surprised when this didn't happen...
Paul Krugman: The Economic Fallout
By PAUL KRUGMAN
COMMENT
2016-11-09T00:42:44-05:0012:42 AM ET
It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?
So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.
[url]https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout[/url]
Paul Krugman: The Economic Fallout
By PAUL KRUGMAN
COMMENT
2016-11-09T00:42:44-05:0012:42 AM ET
It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?
So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.
[url]https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout[/url]
Irvinecommuter
New member
morekaos said:
Again...no one is disputing that tax cuts spurs some level of growth. The contention is whether it's a temporary sugar high or a sustainable long term economic strategy. Most experts agree that the effects of the tax cut is most felt in the first year of the cut...which is basically 2018. Trump and his advisors stated that the tax cuts will usher in 3-4% growth in the next 10 years...we have not even hit that in year 1.
I mean...the man was predicting 4 to 6% growth:
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/06/trump-defies-data-with-6-percent-gdp-growth-forecast.html
https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/tale-two-economies-comparing-trumps-economic-forecast-cbos
And you understand that cutting taxes during a time of economic growth is also dumb because the effects will be next to nothing...companies were already hoarding a ton of cash and unemployment already super low.
Irvinecommuter
New member
morekaos said:
So...3% growth for the next 9 years? And it doesn't happen and the predictions are accurate...would that be Trump's fault or someone's fault.
Oh how about the deficit? I guess that's not a thing anymore.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/13/us-posts-14-billion-budget-deficit-after-trump-tax-cuts.html
eyephone said:
Mety: take a look at these poll numbers
Politico Article: On Tax Day, Trump tax cuts remain deeply unpopular
A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that just 17 percent of Americans believe their own taxes will go down as a result of the bill. A CBS News poll found that 40 percent said they saw no change from the tax bill. And more said it drove their taxes up (32 percent) than lowered their tax bill (25 percent.)
The bill itself has been unpopular from the start and remains so.
A Pew Research Center survey conducted last month found that 36 percent of Americans approve of the tax-cut law while 49 percent disapprove. Even the number of Republicans who strongly approve of the law dipped in the latest Pew survey.
White House officials? response to the unpopularity of the tax cut is basically: Who cares?
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/15/donald-trump-tax-cuts-unpopular-1273469