REOs will rise 50% in the next 4 months.

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
AI, I'm glad I don't know you in person and hope to only come across you on this forum, because that's already more than enough. You aren't providing much input, but you criticize everything people say with a very annoying tone. Just try to make your points without being so obnoxious.
 
Great... now I am going to start a pissing contest with you, because I have to question your numbers. Last month saw 6771 REO sales, when DQ reported 2817 TOTAL sales for SFRs and condos? Now, I know there is a discrepancy between the MLS and DQ, because DQ gets their numbers from recorded deeds, but REOs being more than 2X the total sales seems a bit extreme. That is almost as much as the total sales 7649 for the last quarter that DQ is reporting. I think there is an error in your data input, please double check where that error is.



Even Steve Thomas' numbers are not that high. For June there were 594 REO homes pending and 374 active, for a total of 968. Even if you add in 3582 total pending and active short sales, the total active and pending "distressed" market would be 4550. That sales number is more than double the 3359 total homes that went pending in the 30 days prior to his report. So... you are making Steve Thomas' look not so bad anymore, and you know how I like to pick on the failed economist that Steve is.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1248573100]Great... now I am going to start a pissing contest with you, because I have to question your numbers. Last month saw 6771 REO sales, when DQ reported 2817 TOTAL sales for SFRs and condos? Now, I know there is a discrepancy between the MLS and DQ, because DQ gets their numbers from recorded deeds, but REOs being more than 2X the total sales seems a bit extreme. That is almost as much as the total sales 7649 for the last quarter that DQ is reporting. I think there is an error in your data input, please double check where that error is.



Even Steve Thomas' numbers are not that high. For June there were 594 REO homes pending and 374 active, for a total of 968. Even if you add in 3582 total pending and active short sales, the total active and pending "distressed" market would be 4550. That sales number is more than double the 3359 total homes that went pending in the 30 days prior to his report. So... you are making Steve Thomas' look not so bad anymore, and you know how I like to pick on the failed economist that Steve is.</blockquote>


I stand corrected. My methodology was flawed. In the previous numbers I left the city designation as a wildcard, but neglected to limit the numbers to OC. Apologies for the oversight. I erred.



Here's the corrected data, limited to just OC:



<strong>Orange County REO Sales by month, per SoCalMLS (7/25/09)</strong>



1/08 - 151

2/08 - 202

3/08 - 304

4/08 - 354

5/08 - 393

6/08 - 506

7/08 - 647

8/08 - 818

9/08 - 808

10/08 - 911

11/08 - 815

12/08 - 968

1/09 - 737

2/09 - 720

3/09 - 848

4/09 - 778

5/09 - 756

6/09 - 682

7/09 - 416 and counting...

8/09 - tba

9/09 - tba

10/09 - tba

11/09 - tba

12/09 - tba



-IR2
 
Awesome! I will crunch the numbers later today. I have to run a few errands though, a pretty nice Saturday set up. You know... um... some Home Depot, you know get some wall paper and some flooring, maybe a little Bed Bath and Beyond... I dunno if we will have time for all that... Okay just one, just one stat won't hurt...



For the record, per DataQuick the price per sqft. in OC was $318 in May of 2008, then four months later it was down 7% to $296, and today it is $279 down 12% from May 08. Regardless of the REOs or REO sales, prices still tanked. And... prices are down 37% since the peak of $444 in June of 06.
 
This blog seems to the only sane voice in Irvine, thanks for the service. Are REO's more or less in irvine as compared to the rest of OC, i see very few REO's on redfin. Do you think that the drop in the median for the rest of OC is higher than Irvine and how long will it stay skewed? Well priced homes are still selling in less than 7 days in Irvine. I am waiting on the sidelines to buy but is going to be a very looooooooong wait.
 
[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1248568065]

One request: I'll provide the data if you gentlemen drop the pissing contest. Otherwise my therapist says I'm just being an enabler...

</blockquote>


[tongue in cheek] Actually, I have a new theory: AI is the biggest bear here. By "misunderstanding" or "stupidity" or whatever you want to call it, he forces the others to bust out the facts and the proof. He gets people annoyed enough to actually go get/make charts and data to prove the bear stance. Realistically folks wouldn't bother most of the time since they aren't getting paid for it, so by playing "devil's advocate" AI is providing a great service. I enjoy the data he gets people to provide, so I say to AI "Carry on with playing the role of moron. <em>wink, wink</em>" [/tongue in cheek]
 
<a href="http://www.mydesert.com/article/20090730/BUSINESS04/90730001/Inland+Empire+foreclosures+among+top+in+the+country">Inland Empire foreclosures among top in the country</a>



The Inland Empire was among the top five areas in the nation where foreclosure activity was <strong>highest in the first six months of the year</strong>, a real estate tracking firm reported today.



<strong>A total 82,339 mortgage default notices,</strong> auction sale notices and bank repossessions were recorded in the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario metropolitan area between January and June, putting the region fourth in Irvine-based RealtyTrac's survey of 203 metro areas.



The Inland Empire was just ahead of the Stockton metropolitan area in foreclosure volume, according to RealtyTrac. Las Vegas-Paradise was first, Cape Coral, Fla. second and Merced third, data indicated.



RealtyTrac reported the Inland region's foreclosure filings were up 12 percent compared to the same period a year ago. Roughly six percent of the area's housing units were in default in the first half of 2009, according to figures.



``Foreclosure activity continued its upward trajectory nationwide, and in the majority of metro areas in the first half of year,'' said James J. Saccacio, RealtyTrac chief executive officer.



Saccacio noted that filings were declining in some markets where foreclosures had soared, including Modesto, while activity was accelerating in previously dormant markets like Provo, Utah and Boise, Idaho.



``As unemployment rates increase in different parts of the country, it's very likely that we'll see similar patterns develop elsewhere,'' Saccacio said.



In its midyear report on foreclosure activity in individual counties, released earlier this month, RealtyTrac ranked Riverside County second in the state in foreclosure volume, topped only by Merced County.



Data showed 1 in 17 households slipped into some stage of foreclosure in Riverside County during the first six months of the year. San Bernardino County was fourth, with 1 in 19 households in default, according to RealtyTrac.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1248241431][quote author="C Delroy Spuckler" date=1248240931][quote author="freedomCM" date=1248238804]<strong>From the main blog:</strong>





<blockquote>Astute Observation by IrvineRenter

2009-07-21 05:57 AM

?The banks have done a good job holding inventory back, but they can only do so for so long.?

There are about 350 REO for sale in Orange County. Bank of America owns 15,000 properties in Orange County. What do you think will happen next?

Reply to this astute observation

Astute Observation by Lee in Irvine

2009-07-21 06:04 AM

Oh my. Where did that figure come from. Was it published?

Reply to this astute observation

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter

2009-07-21 06:19 AM

No, it is one of those semi-secret numbers that nobody wants published. I know brokers who have been meeting with asset managers from different banks and other institutions. People running in those circles know the situation. The word is getting out in the Agent community.

There is a big push on right now for brokers and asset managers to set up systems to dispose of all these REO. Nobody is quite sure how to go about it. The problem is so big that even brokerage houses with hundreds of agents do not have the capacity to handle all the listings. We are probably going to see several big brokerages get a large piece of the REO pie.

Don?t forget that the problem is getting worse each month as defaults and REO keep coming in faster than banks are clearing it out.

Reply to this astute observation

Astute Observation by Mcdonna1980

2009-07-21 06:30 AM

I just did a little dance up and down my hallway</blockquote>




<strong>Could it be true????

</strong>



(not that I doubt IR, but....15k is a very big number!)</blockquote>




If I'm a bank, why am I holding back inventory that much?



Its the summer selling season, if the hold on past that, it means their next shot is next summer, otherwise they tank the market in the off season...?



Or are they waiting to have a few good quarters, collect some fat bonuses and sell some stock, then dump?



Delroy</blockquote>


There are many questions about this inventory I cannot answer. I have heard from multiple sources that the number of REOs is staggering. I also heard that there are around 50,000 REO in LA County and 50,000 in Riverside County. We have it easy in OC with only 15,000. These number include current REO, new defaults and projections for what is already in their pipeline.



After the crash plays out, lenders are going to own -- or have owned -- a significant portion of our housing stock. A turnover of property of this magnitude is truly unprecedented.</blockquote>


not sure if this article was mentioned elsewhere, or if i am even reading it right.. but could this explain the inventory?



"From June 2008 to June 2009, the number of American mortgages that were 90 days or more delinquent soared from 1.8 million to nearly 3 million, according to the realty research company First American Core Logic. During that period, the number of loans that resulted in the bank taking ownership of the home declined to 245,000, from 333,000. "



http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/30/business/30services.html?_r=1
 
[quote author="niklos" date=1249011032]not sure if this article was mentioned elsewhere, or if i am even reading it right.. but could this explain the inventory?



"From June 2008 to June 2009, the number of American mortgages that were 90 days or more delinquent soared from 1.8 million to nearly 3 million, according to the realty research company First American Core Logic. During that period, the number of loans that resulted in the bank taking ownership of the home declined to 245,000, from 333,000. "

<a href="http:// http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/30/business/30services.html?_r=1">http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/30/business/30services.html?_r=1</a></blockquote>


Yes, people were defaulting, but banks were not foreclosing, so we have a huge buildup of shadow inventory.
 
I just got back from a drive through the central valley (hi vas!), and boy did it look bad, bad, bad. I stopped for dinner in a mall between stockton and sacto, and ti was basically empty at 8pm. you could get the front parking spot for the best buy, target, home depot, etc. we were the only ones in the del taco.



when it gets like that at the district, it will be time to buy.
 
There are currently 870 Irvine homes in foreclosure or that went back to the bank in the last 120 days. 911 if you include the sales to investors at the auction, which by definition is a foreclosure since a trustees deed is recorded and it has a new owner.



There are 512 that are now NOD.



There are 277 that are scheduled for the auction. 234 of those are scheduled for the auction in the next 30 days. 199 of those 234 have loan amounts of less than $750k, and 116 of the 234 have loan amounts less than $500k.



I will post the stats of Orange and Tustin later. And... I will see if I can tweak data to just include the good parts of 92705.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1249294485]I just got back from a drive through the central valley (hi vas!), and boy did it look bad, bad, bad. I stopped for dinner in a mall between stockton and sacto, and ti was basically empty at 8pm. you could get the front parking spot for the best buy, target, home depot, etc. we were the only ones in the del taco.



when it gets like that at the district, it will be time to buy.</blockquote>


WHAT the hell they were thinking when they put all that retail development in there I'll never know.
 
Orange:



The total is 815. 851 including sales to investors.



389 NODs.



321 in NTS. 281 scheduled in the next 30 days. 259 of the 281 have loan amounts less than $750k. 142 of the 281 have loan amounts less than $500k.



Tustin (which includes Tustin Ranch and all of 92782):



The total is 440. 459 including sales to investors.



224 NODs.



173 in NTS. 153 scheduled in the next 30 days. 144 of the 153 have loan amounts less than $750k. 97 of the 153 have loan amounts less than $500k.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1249455773][quote author="freedomCM" date=1249294485]I just got back from a drive through the central valley (hi vas!), and boy did it look bad, bad, bad. I stopped for dinner in a mall between stockton and sacto, and ti was basically empty at 8pm. you could get the front parking spot for the best buy, target, home depot, etc. we were the only ones in the del taco.



when it gets like that at the district, it will be time to buy.</blockquote>


WHAT the hell they were thinking when they put all that retail development in there I'll never know.</blockquote>




If you build it, they will come...



more seriously, they must have put in millions of sf of retail between stockton and redding along the 5, along with a million Irvine row houses in the cow fields. Of course, thousands of people work in the retail and dining at those plazas, and based on what I saw, they are going to all lose their jobs, so more empty crackerboxes.



I bet it is the same along the 99, but I haven't been past Visalia on the 99 in years.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1249458333]



If you build it, they will come...



more seriously, they must have put in millions of sf of retail between stockton and redding along the 5, along with a million Irvine row houses in the cow fields. Of course, thousands of people work in the retail and dining at those plazas, and based on what I saw, they are going to all lose their jobs, so more empty crackerboxes.



I bet it is the same along the 99, but I haven't been past Visalia on the 99 in years.</blockquote>


Not so much. The stuff you saw off of I-5 is commuter stock for folks who live in the Bay Area. Other than the city of Merced, it's been virtually dead along 99.



IMO, Visalia has the best city planning of any city in California, period. It isn't run by developers and sprawl isn't a problem because they don't allow it. Fresno has the worst.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1249456976]Orange:



The total is 815. 851 including sales to investors.



389 NODs.



321 in NTS. 281 scheduled in the next 30 days. 259 of the 281 have loan amounts less than $750k. 142 of the 281 have loan amounts less than $500k.



Tustin (which includes Tustin Ranch and all of 92782):



The total is 440. 459 including sales to investors.



224 NODs.



173 in NTS. 153 scheduled in the next 30 days. 144 of the 153 have loan amounts less than $750k. 97 of the 153 have loan amounts less than $500k.</blockquote>


So folks do not under the wrong impression, all the homes that are scheduled for auction will not necessarily be auctioned on their scheduled dates. Many are postponed, but oddly almost all that have an NTS eventually go to auction.
 
a nice reminder of why is what (from CR):



<blockquote> Basel Too (profile) wrote on Wed, 8/12/2009 - 9:48 am



*



From CreditSlips.org, an explanation of why the mods aren't being made. Looks like we should expect more foreclosures, unless we bailout the servicers.



The real problem for servicers is not just a desire to make more money but their almost total inability to comply with HAMP. The problem with the HAMP plan is that it fails to take into account the normal obligations of servicers under their respective Pooling and Servicing Agreements. In most cases, a servicer is obligated to advance to the Trustee for the securitized mortgage trust the monthly principal and interest payments for every loan that has defaulted. This can be a massive monthly financial obligation. Most servicers are not allowed to recover these "P & I Advances" until the property is foreclosed and then sold as Real Estate Owned (REO). More importantly, HAMP forces mortgage servicers to act as "full-document" mortgage loan originators. Most mortgage servicers have no experience, training or knowledge about how to originate a mortgage loan. Yet, this is exactly what HAMP is asking them to do. The $1,000 HAMP modification fee and the annual $1,000 success for performance HAMP fees do not even begin to cover the expenses the servicers must incur in order to fully comply with the HAMP "origination" rules. As a result, the so-called "financial incentives" for servicers to modify loans are totally unrealistic and fail to take into account how this system really functions.

</blockquote>
 
[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1248575587]<strong>Orange County REO Sales by month, per SoCalMLS (7/25/09)</strong>



1/08 - 151

2/08 - 202

3/08 - 304

4/08 - 354

5/08 - 393

6/08 - 506

7/08 - 647

8/08 - 818

9/08 - 808

10/08 - 911

11/08 - 815

12/08 - 968

1/09 - 737

2/09 - 720

3/09 - 848

4/09 - 778

5/09 - 756

6/09 - 682

7/09 - 416 and counting...

8/09 - tba

9/09 - tba

10/09 - tba

11/09 - tba

12/09 - tba



-IR2</blockquote>


Deuce... could you update the July numbers please?
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1250597039]

Deuce... could you update the July numbers please?</blockquote>
7/09 - 674 (REO-Lender Owned plus REO-Offers submitted)
 
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