REOs will rise 50% in the next 4 months.

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="awgee" date=1248469527]I think the red B pins are the prettiest.</blockquote>


Is that because they are the most rare of the 3? They are the Alexandrite of housing.
 
I saw somewhere statistics that show that most people who are foreclosed upon <strong>don't</strong> rent a new place, but instead double up with friends or family. That certainly would increase the vacancy rate.
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1248492019]I saw somewhere statistics that show that most people who are foreclosed upon <strong>don't</strong> rent a new place, but instead double up with friends or family. That certainly would increase the vacancy rate.</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/q2-homeowner-vacancy-rate-declines.html">Link to the first post</a> that CR did on this today, and <a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/surge-in-rental-units.html">link to the second post</a> he did today, that prove this stat.
 
[quote author="T!m" date=1248479683][quote author="awgee" date=1248469527]I think the red B pins are the prettiest.</blockquote>


Is that because they are the most rare of the 3? They are the Alexandrite of housing.</blockquote>
And also because they make the biggest contribution to the decline in home prices. "Viva La Roja!"
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1248501445]"Viva La Roja!"</blockquote>


<img src="http://d21c.com/walpurgis9/happies/faces2/076.gif" alt="" />
 
That's it. A new verbal subtext for recognition. Whilst perusing an open house, and another couple is looking, whom you think may be readers of IHB, just say, "Viva la roja", and see if they respond.



At cocktail parties everywhere, you will hear, "Viva la roja." On blogs everywhere, "Viva la roja." Bumperstickers, "Viva la roja."



You will know the bottom of the market is in when at realtor sales meetings, "Viva la roja", is penned in red ink on the front wall dry erase board.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1211685809]REOs will rise 50% in the next <strong>4</strong> months.</blockquote>


It's now <strong>14</strong> months, I'm still waiting.
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1248508230][quote author="freedomCM" date=1211685809]REOs will rise 50% in the next <strong>4</strong> months.</blockquote>


It's now <strong>14</strong> months, I'm still waiting.</blockquote>


What are you waiting for? It already happened. There were 4618 REOs in OC the four months after FreedomCM posted that, and there were 2764 REOs the four months prior to that. So by my math that is a 67% increase. Man... Freedom wasn't pessimistic enough. Then if you look at Irvine there were 129 REOs after FreedomCM posted that, and 73 REOs the prior four months. That is a 77% increase.



Looks like you are correct in pointing out how freedomCM was wrong about the percentage increase, too bad for you it was even worse than he predicted. You really should do at least <em>some</em> research before you post something that embarrassing. I'm sure you will go and report my post as harassment for the "embarrassing" part, but really... it really is embarrassing how totally and completely wrong you were.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1248512090][quote author="asianinvasian" date=1248508230][quote author="freedomCM" date=1211685809]REOs will rise 50% in the next <strong>4</strong> months.</blockquote>


It's now <strong>14</strong> months, I'm still waiting.</blockquote>


What are you waiting for? It already happened. There were 4618 REOs in OC the four months after FreedomCM posted that, and there were 2764 REOs the four months prior to that. So by my math that is a 67% increase. Man... Freedom wasn't pessimistic enough. Then if you look at Irvine there were 129 REOs after FreedomCM posted that, and 73 REOs the prior four months. That is a 77% increase.



Looks like you are correct in pointing out how freedomCM was wrong about the percentage increase, too bad for you it was even worse than he predicted. You really should do at least <em>some</em> research before you post something that embarrassing. I'm sure you will go and report my post as harassment for the "embarrassing" part, but really... it really is embarrassing how totally and completely wrong you were.</blockquote>


You are confusing short sale with REO. Sorry bud, it is you that is embarrassing yourself by being totally and completely wrong, again.
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1248515704][quote author="graphrix" date=1248512090][quote author="asianinvasian" date=1248508230][quote author="freedomCM" date=1211685809]REOs will rise 50% in the next <strong>4</strong> months.</blockquote>


It's now <strong>14</strong> months, I'm still waiting.</blockquote>


What are you waiting for? It already happened. There were 4618 REOs in OC the four months after FreedomCM posted that, and there were 2764 REOs the four months prior to that. So by my math that is a 67% increase. Man... Freedom wasn't pessimistic enough. Then if you look at Irvine there were 129 REOs after FreedomCM posted that, and 73 REOs the prior four months. That is a 77% increase.



Looks like you are correct in pointing out how freedomCM was wrong about the percentage increase, too bad for you it was even worse than he predicted. You really should do at least <em>some</em> research before you post something that embarrassing. I'm sure you will go and report my post as harassment for the "embarrassing" part, but really... it really is embarrassing how totally and completely wrong you were.</blockquote>


You are confusing short sale with REO. Sorry bud, it is you that is embarrassing yourself by being totally and completely wrong, again.</blockquote>


No I am not confused. Those are the REO stats from foreclosure radar, which he gets from the county recorders office. I know the deference between a short sale and a trustee sale. They are two completely different documents that are recorded, one is a "grant deed" and the other is a "trustees deed". I will get the DataQuick numbers later, to add further proof you have no idea what you are talking about. Just stick with posting price sheets from the homebuilders, and let the professionals handle the stats.



Actually, I just glanced at the DQ numbers... oh... so much fun I will have posting those numbers only to prove you wrong even more. I really should dig up that thread that acmpe started on all the dumb things you said, because this one needs to be added to your list. It might be #1 it is so horribly wrong.



Be back later... don't borrow Johnson's razorblades while I gone.
 
Since the beginning of 2009:

(SocalMLS data as of 7/22/09)



<strong>Irvine </strong>-

928 closed sales (total).

132 REO sales.

150 short sales.

~30% distressed sales.



<strong>Orange </strong>-

601 closed sales (total).

211 REO sales.

112 short sales.

~54% distressed sales.



<strong>Tustin </strong>-

402 closed sales (total).

141 REO sales.

89 short sales.

~57% distressed sales.



<strong>Anaheim </strong>-

1296 closed sales (total).

667 REO sales.

232 short sales.

~69% distressed sales.

<strong>

Santa Ana</strong> -

1608 closed sales (total).

1044 REO sales.

247 short sales.

~81% distressed sales.



-IR2
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1248520783][quote author="asianinvasian" date=1248515704][quote author="graphrix" date=1248512090][quote author="asianinvasian" date=1248508230][quote author="freedomCM" date=1211685809]REOs will rise 50% in the next <strong>4</strong> months.</blockquote>


It's now <strong>14</strong> months, I'm still waiting.</blockquote>


What are you waiting for? It already happened. There were 4618 REOs in OC the four months after FreedomCM posted that, and there were 2764 REOs the four months prior to that. So by my math that is a 67% increase. Man... Freedom wasn't pessimistic enough. Then if you look at Irvine there were 129 REOs after FreedomCM posted that, and 73 REOs the prior four months. That is a 77% increase.



Looks like you are correct in pointing out how freedomCM was wrong about the percentage increase, too bad for you it was even worse than he predicted. You really should do at least <em>some</em> research before you post something that embarrassing. I'm sure you will go and report my post as harassment for the "embarrassing" part, but really... it really is embarrassing how totally and completely wrong you were.</blockquote>


You are confusing short sale with REO. Sorry bud, it is you that is embarrassing yourself by being totally and completely wrong, again.</blockquote>


No I am not confused. Those are the REO stats from foreclosure radar, which he gets from the county recorders office. I know the deference between a short sale and a trustee sale. They are two completely different documents that are recorded, one is a "grant deed" and the other is a "trustees deed". I will get the DataQuick numbers later, to add further proof you have no idea what you are talking about. Just stick with posting price sheets from the homebuilders, and let the professionals handle the stats.



Actually, I just glanced at the DQ numbers... oh... so much fun I will have posting those numbers only to prove you wrong even more. I really should dig up that thread that acmpe started on all the dumb things you said, because this one needs to be added to your list. It might be #1 it is so horribly wrong.



Be back later... don't borrow Johnson's razorblades while I gone.</blockquote>


Be sure to double check those numbers, because you're just digging yourself into a deeper hole and looking like a complete and total idiot now. Oh, and about being wrong, how are your short positions doing? Looks like you've been absolutely wrong about absolutely everything. Want me to keep going? Because I can embarrass you into the ground. I'll stop and save you some face, because zovall asked me to, thank him.
 
<a href="http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2009/07/15/oc-forecloses-hit-5-month-high/13709/">From DataQuick</a>: The four months after freedomCM posted his prediction there were 5210 foreclosures, in the four months prior there were 3460. That is an increase of 1750 or 50%. You can go check the numbers yourself, provided you know how to click a link and use a calculator. It will show that I am certainly right, and you are most certainly wrong.



BTW, since you have the memory of a goldfish, I told that I went long a while ago, and made a load of money on BAC on the way up. My positions are doing just fine, doesn't matter if I am long or short, all that matters is being right more than wrong.



Foreclosure Radar and DataQuick numbers prove that FreedomCM's prediction was eerily accurate, and that AI really has no clue what he is talking about. Double the embarrassment in one day... good job!
 
[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1248521364]Since the beginning of 2009:

(SocalMLS data as of 7/22/09)



<strong>Irvine </strong>-

928 closed sales (total).

132 REO sales.

150 short sales.

~30% distressed sales.



<strong>Orange </strong>-

601 closed sales (total).

211 REO sales.

112 short sales.

~54% distressed sales.



<strong>Tustin </strong>-

402 closed sales (total).

141 REO sales.

89 short sales.

~57% distressed sales.



<strong>Anaheim </strong>-

1296 closed sales (total).

667 REO sales.

232 short sales.

~69% distressed sales.

<strong>

Santa Ana</strong> -

1608 closed sales (total).

1044 REO sales.

247 short sales.

~81% distressed sales.



-IR2</blockquote>


How easy is it for you to break down the REO sales per month for all of OC going back to June 2008 (right before FreedomCM's prediction)? You know... maybe pop that into an excel doc, and I can compare it to the foreclosures/current REOs from foreclosure radar and DataQuick. Then we can see if the sales of REOs are keeping pace with the amount of REOs being added to the books of the banks. Yeah... that whole shadow inventory thing. Sure would be interesting if you could, and it would become a nice proprietary model to have in the arsenal...
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1248508230][quote author="freedomCM" date=1211685809]REOs will rise 50% in the next <strong>4</strong> months.</blockquote>


It's now <strong>14</strong> months, I'm still waiting.</blockquote>


1. In May 2008, freedomCM said that "REOs will rise 50% in the next 4 months."

FUN FACT: "REOs will rise" means that the number of properties that will go back to the bank will rise, period. REO listings and REO sales -- which may or may not occur after a property becomes REO -- are beyond the scope of the statement "REOs will rise." <strong>Accordingly, freedomCM did not conclude that REO listings or REO sales would rise.</strong>



2. In April 2009, almost a year later, you posted a chart titled California REO <em><strong>Listed For Sale</strong></em> in an attempt to support your inferred conclusion that REOs did not rise (but had gone down instead).

FUN FACT: You introduced a new element-- REO <em><strong>listings </strong></em>-- which, again, is beyond the scope of freedomCM's statement.

FUN FACT: I hate Monday morning quarterbacking, or in this case, attempts to do so. You waited almost a year to challenge freedomCM's original post -- lame.

REQUEST: Please read, re-read, and re-read again the many blog and forum postings about shadow inventory. After doing so, you may understand that REOs can rise without a corresponding rise in REO listings and REO sales.
 
And... to further add salt to the wounds... While the NOD to foreclosure ratio has dropped from its peak of 60% to 41%, it still means there are a lot of REOs on the way due to the significant increase in NODs. Here is my prediction: There will be about 6675 foreclosures in the next six months, or an increase of 65% compared to the last six months. The total foreclosure number for all of 2009 will be slightly less than 2008, but going into 2010, with the loan mods re-defaulting, in that time we will see the largest 12 month period of foreclosures on record. If anyone doubts my prediction, I suggest going to the foreclosure thread, where I have used the same calculation for my predictions, to prove me wrong. Good luck with that.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1248539206]And... to further add salt to the wounds... While the NOD to foreclosure ratio has dropped from its peak of 60% to 41%, it still means there are a lot of REOs on the way due to the significant increase in NODs. Here is my prediction: There will be about 6675 foreclosures in the next six months, or an increase of 65% compared to the last six months. The total foreclosure number for all of 2009 will be slightly less than 2008, but going into 2010, with the loan mods re-defaulting, in that time we will see the largest 12 month period of foreclosures on record. If anyone doubts my prediction, I suggest going to the foreclosure thread, where I have used the same calculation for my predictions, to prove me wrong. Good luck with that.</blockquote>


If the REOs lead to significant numbers of walkaways because owners are <em>way </em>underwater, this whole process may accelerate. I agree that 2010 will shatter all records assuming the government doesn't find some way to manipulate the situation. If there is widespread capitulation, the large numbers of REOs will be passing through the belly of a snake. This massive bulge of inventory will create problems, and it will take a long time to sell it off. House prices will fall to a discount from rental parity required to work off the inventory. In some areas, like the high desert, the process of working off the excess inventory will take a decade. In more desirable areas like OC, it will happen quicker, but it will still take a few years. As for the peak of foreclosures, I think we may see that in 2011.
 
[quote author="Sunshine" date=1248538329][quote author="asianinvasian" date=1248508230][quote author="freedomCM" date=1211685809]REOs will rise 50% in the next <strong>4</strong> months.</blockquote>


It's now <strong>14</strong> months, I'm still waiting.</blockquote>


1. In May 2008, freedomCM said that "REOs will rise 50% in the next 4 months."

FUN FACT: "REOs will rise" means that the number of properties that will go back to the bank will rise, period. REO listings and REO sales -- which may or may not occur after a property becomes REO -- are beyond the scope of the statement "REOs will rise." <strong>Accordingly, freedomCM did not conclude that REO listings or REO sales would rise.</strong>



2. In April 2009, almost a year later, you posted a chart titled California REO <em><strong>Listed For Sale</strong></em> in an attempt to support your inferred conclusion that REOs did not rise (but had gone down instead).

FUN FACT: You introduced a new element-- REO <em><strong>listings </strong></em>-- which, again, is beyond the scope of freedomCM's statement.

FUN FACT: I hate Monday morning quarterbacking, or in this case, attempts to do so. You waited almost a year to challenge freedomCM's original post -- lame.

REQUEST: Please read, re-read, and re-read again the many blog and forum postings about shadow inventory. After doing so, you may understand that REOs can rise without a corresponding rise in REO listings and REO sales.</blockquote>


You are correct, however, that is more of a play on words and interpretation taken out of context because the very first sentence in his post was <strong>"Looks as if the market is already in line to get hammered with REOs."</strong> and the very last sentence <strong>"Will the market be able to sell this much inventory? How much will this hammer prices?"</strong>. Next time I'll just quote the whole thing.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1248535104]

How easy is it for you to break down the REO sales per month for all of OC going back to June 2008 (right before FreedomCM's prediction)? You know... maybe pop that into an excel doc, and I can compare it to the foreclosures/current REOs from foreclosure radar and DataQuick. Then we can see if the sales of REOs are keeping pace with the amount of REOs being added to the books of the banks. Yeah... that whole shadow inventory thing. Sure would be interesting if you could, and it would become a nice proprietary model to have in the arsenal...</blockquote>


One request: I'll provide the data if you gentlemen drop the pissing contest. Otherwise my therapist says I'm just being an enabler...



<strong><span style="color: red;">All reported</span> [strike]Orange County[/strike] REO Sales by month, per SoCalMLS (7/25/09)</strong>



1/08 - 670

2/08 - 845

3/08 - 1412

4/08 - 2021

5/08 - 2659

6/08 - 3394

7/08 - 4239

8/08 - 4749

9/08 - 5377

10/08 - 6075

11/08 - 5398

12/08 - 6472

1/09 - 5473

2/09 - 5265

3/09 - 7546

4/09 - 7275

5/09 - 6759

6/09 - 6771

7/09 - 3943 and counting...

8/09 - tba

9/09 - tba

10/09 - tba

11/09 - tba

12/09 - tba



-SG



<em>edited to correct target area.</em>
 
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