Akim,
No business is easy and without risk. If this was the case, everyone would leave their full time jobs and start a business. Regarding JC and ATL market, i never mentioned that i see a 300% appreciation like Irvine from 1996 - 2006. In Atlanta, you can buy properties for cash flow or maximum appreciation. I am however optimistic that JC's home values will double in 10 years. Right now it so much cheaper to buy then to rent in Johns Creek. If I were to leave my current residence and rent it out, it would rent out within a week for $3000. My total carrying cost on the home $2400/month. Look at the link of the 2500 sq/ft Irvine SFR in Fox Hill my wife used to live at when she was in junior high. The home trades for $750,000 but the rent is $3000. This tells me that the properties in Irvine is grossly overvalued.
Akim, I never shared with you my failures as an land lord / investor did i? I rented my townhome that i purchased in 2004 in Chicago in June of last year and i had a major flood two weeks after I moved. I didn't have flood insurance so I had to come up with $15,000 out of pocket to DEMO and restore the basement. To makes matters worse, I didn't screen my tenants properly who avoided my calls and provided me with every sob story you can imagine not to pay rent. I asked the Lord that i would not take these people to eviction court, and he faithfully answered my prayers.
I purchased a 3500 sq/ft SFR next to Sugarloaf Country Club at the peak of the market in 2006 at $546,000. The appraisal value of that home is $400k if i were to sell the property today. What a terrible way to start a rental business right? What saved me with this property is that by God's grace, i had a CEO of major retail chain in Atlanta rent from me for the past 6 years for $3000/month. My carrying cost on this home is $2350. Again, by God's grace, I was able to replace the bad tenant with a mother who is trying to get back on her feet from a harsh divorce. She is a VP of a major financial institution in Chicago and both my tenants make more money than i do. My new Chicago tenant called me yesterday asking me if she could remodel the kitchen on her dime with some really nice granite counter top. She is also paying me $2,180 while my orginial listing rental price was $2000/month. This is what i call Grace.
With two major set backs like this, I might as well quit now right? Not a chance. I am more driven to succeed, screen for the right tenants, lock in a low 30 year fixed rate, and follow through on my 8 year plan for this SFR rental business.
akim997 said:
first... 30 year treasury isn't the risk free rate... 90day T-bill is standard... but you might as well use 0% for now (and the near future)... a lot of CMAs (capital market assumptions) have been adjusted to reflect this.
second... Tbills are not bonds. They are zero's that are 1yr or less.
I work and talk to people from Coke. Even people from the area will agree that the aTl /JC /GA will likely NEVER experience the same type of growth (and RE appreciation) that SoCAL did (or Irvine from 1960's to today)... I agree with IHO in that it's a bit ridiculous to even speculate like that.
I've helped my family who has lived off RE investing for decades (since my dad passed) and I think it's a pretty difficult venture... Personally, I don't see the risk/return proposition... I feel I can make more money at work, with less at risk (no capital investment, just human capital - my time)... Managing RE - it's tedious.. if it were rewarding enough, it could be a full time job (it's my mom's and she's over 70!)... I'm trying to get my mom out of the business for her sake - dealing with tenants, repairs, etc. can be quite a lot of work (at least in a 9 unit apartment) - there is ALWAYS something going on. If what people are saying is true and that 9 houses is more difficult than a 9 -unit you should be prepared for the worst. I will agree with what they say that the multi unit is such that the vacancies and non-performers are mitigated by paying tenants (diversification). Over past 2 years there has been a delinquent or vacant apartment at least every other month. I realized that RE is capital intensive, and its easier if you have a lot of money (we don't have a lot of free capital).