Questions about Portola Springs

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[quote author="hesitating" date=1241288195]Thanks for all your opinions. I'll soon make my decision of buying or not. Maybe more towards 'buy' just because the money factor. With my max budget of 450k for a 3-bed home, it's hard for me to find one at this time with non-remodeling condition since I have no extra money to change anything inside the condo.</blockquote>


You are getting a 3 bedroom in PS for less than 450K? Which one - which plan are you buying? Did you decide? I thought seriously about buying a La Paloma 3 bedroom, but it was more than $650k. In the end it was the high mella roos, high HOA, no schools nearby, and high base price that made me decide now was not the right time to buy.
 
[quote author="IACRenter" date=1242050207][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1242049640]



New construction at $300/sft seems pretty standard at PS... I'm not sure if TIC can sustain a $375/sft even in places like Orchard Hills (which isn't very far from PS). But that target seems right for Laguna Crossing because current bigger homes in QH are closing higher than $375.</blockquote>


Some of the subdivisions in OH will be behind manned guard gates just like North Park, so it will command some premium to PS. Of course that just means even more outrageous HOA fees.</blockquote>


QH will always command a premium if for no other reason than being in the Uni boundaries. If Portola Springs is completed as planned, Enclave 4 (Agua Chinion) will be a guard gated community. If you look at the PS plan, there will be some huge lots (by Irvine standards) in Agua Chinon.
 
Manned guard gates just don't seem to command the perceived premium to me as long as your talking about sub 1.5m homes.



It's more of an inconvenience and if you're living in Irvine... what does it really do?



Harvard Square has gates and Northpark has manned gates but I'm not seeing any more of a higher pricing point than non-gated newer communities.



And is University High really so much of a contributing factor that it is keeping QH overpriced? Because if that's the case, they should just district all new Irvine communities into Uni.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1242085910]Manned guard gates just don't seem to command the perceived premium to me as long as your talking about sub 1.5m homes.



It's more of an inconvenience and if you're living in Irvine... what does it really do?



Harvard Square has gates and Northpark has manned gates but I'm not seeing any more of a higher pricing point than non-gated newer communities.



And is University High really so much of a contributing factor that it is keeping QH overpriced? Because if that's the case, they should just district all new Irvine communities into Uni.</blockquote>


If you want to see civil unrest that will make the LA riots seem like a peace march, let IUSD redraw the Uni boundary to exculde QH. I wish the existing PS enclaves had manned gates, I'm terrified about the flood of Wal Mart patrons cascading off the 241 into Portola Springs.
 
Wasn't someone posting some rumor than QH was going to be redistricted to Woodbridge High? I don't think that would make me desire QH any less... and if it drops the prices in QH... more for me.



What I'm saying is it has to be more than just manned gates or school district... and the bigger one to me is the one thing PS can't change... location. It's funny because I used to think PS was a hillside community so that would be a premium... but when we toured Serra yesterday... there really aren't many homes that are on the hillside and actually have views. In fact... I think the 9 Serra houses up by the toll road are the only ones that qualify as view lots to me. Whereas in QH, most of Vicara, the odd numbered houses in Tapestry, Olivos and Chantilly, some of Sienna and even some of the townhomes by Quail Hill Drive have better "city" views than most of PS.



Now I realize not everyone cares about views or living on a "hill" but there does seem to be some correlation there (look how many people in IHB want to live in unincorporated Santa Ana/Tustin Hills/North Tustin/Tustin Foothills despite the lack of sidewalks, HOAs, street lighting and manned guard gates).
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1242049640]So for Mother's Day, we went somewhere we haven't been in about 8 or 9 months... a model home tour.



We visited Serra at Portola Springs just to check out what the current pricing and build-out was.



1. Not many homes have been sold since we last looked.

2. Homes that started at 1.5 are now down to 1.1/1.2.



That Plan 2 is so awesome... has everything we want but I just can't cope with how "far" PS is from the rest of Irvine... or the rest of the places we frequent behind the Orange Curtain.



One particular model has a huge view lot and can probably be had for 1.1m with incentives but I can't help but think that they will be worth 900k or less in a few years. The worse part is homes built 5 or 6 years ago with smaller lots and over 1/4 less square feet are selling for more right now in Quail Hill.



New construction at $300/sft seems pretty standard at PS... I'm not sure if TIC can sustain a $375/sft even in places like Orchard Hills (which isn't very far from PS). But that target seems right for Laguna Crossing because current bigger homes in QH are closing higher than $375.</blockquote>


I have been keeping track of all closed transactions at Serra, Portola Springs. Here are the ones that were sold in the last 8 months or so:



39 Prairie (plan 2) : $1,500,000 Sold on 8/20/2008 -- Resale

31 Exploration (plan 2) : $1,277,500 Sold on 12/28/2008 -- New

30 Exploration (plan 3) : $1,306,500 Sold on 12/02/2008 -- New

31 Small Grove (plan 2) : $1,468,500 Sold on 12/23/2008 -- New

35 Small Grove (plan 3) : $1,500,000 Sold on 12/24/2008 -- New

37 Small Grove (plan 2) : $1439,500 Sold on 11/26/2008 -- New

39 Small Grove (plan 3) : $1,485,500 Sold on 12/04/2008 -- New

41 Small Grove (plan 1) : $1362,500 Sold on 11/14/2008 -- New



There are still two for sale and 3 are being built on Small Grove as we speak:



29 Exploration : $1,561,500

33 Small Grove : $1,505,500



Not many have been sold since you last visited (8 or 9 months)? Which one can be had for $1.1M?



I think that if you wait long enough, you can buy those homes for less than $800K. :-) Save your money and keep renting.
 
[quote author="irvineowner" date=1242089216]Not many have been sold since you last visited (8 or 9 months)? Which one can be had for $1.1M?

</blockquote>
Two plan 2s just went into the sales process... the listing sheet had 1.145 for one and 1.2 or something for the other. If you consider the incentives they always throw in... that's probably 1.1 (and they do let you make offers). 8 months ago... the salespeople were telling me they might consider taking 1.2/1.3 for that model and now they are actually being listed for less.



And those weren't fall outs... those prices are for homes that just started construction and won't close until November. I wonder what happens if they are about to close and the foreclosure and load reset wave has blown up all the prices? Will StanPac lower their prices because I really think those might be sub 1m by then.



I think Los Colinas is feeling the pressure from Serra... they have more lots to fill (having just taken Pardee's Prado project) and I don't think they can substantiate even their biggest model going for more than $1m when you can pop into a Serra for close to that price.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1242090770][quote author="irvineowner" date=1242089216]Not many have been sold since you last visited (8 or 9 months)? Which one can be had for $1.1M?

</blockquote>
Two plan 2s just went into the sales process... the listing sheet had 1.145 for one and 1.2 or something for the other. If you consider the incentives they always throw in... that's probably 1.1 (and they do let you make offers). 8 months ago... the salespeople were telling me they might consider taking 1.2/1.3 for that model and now they are actually being listed for less.



And those weren't fall outs... those prices are for homes that just started construction and won't close until November. I wonder what happens if they are about to close and the foreclosure and load reset wave has blown up all the prices? Will StanPac lower their prices because I really think those might be sub 1m by then.</blockquote>


Do you have the latest price sheet by any chance? If yes, can you post them here? If not, I will have to stop by the sales office and take a look. I am little surprised. The same plan 2 (31 Small Grove) on the same street was sold for $1.47M less than 5 months ago.
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<legend> Attached files </legend> <a href="http://www.talkirvine.com/converted_files/images/forum_attachments/320_GF5EvNrjtIMP3PG8aJSJ.jpg"><img src="http://www.talkirvine.com/converted_files/images/forum_attachments/320_GF5EvNrjtIMP3PG8aJSJ.jpg" class="gc-images" title="serra.jpg" style="max-width:300px" /></a> </fieldset>
 
[quote author="irvineowner" date=1242092341]Do you have the latest price sheet by any chance? If yes, can you post them here? If not, I will have to stop by the sales office and take a look. I am little surprised. The same plan 2 (31 Small Grove) on the same street was sold for $1.47M less than 5 months ago.</blockquote>
I think we threw it out... but it was on a sales sheet. I think it was a new one because those two just went under the sales process this week (since it was so low).



Lots 145 and 150 I believe.



The Plan 3s were still going for 1.4 or higher... and the Plan 1 model was listed for 1.3/4ish since they will no longer be making them in these last phases.



I'm not really too keen on the Plan 3 (especially the upstairs) and if Plan 2s are listing for 1.1/1.2... I think they are going to have a hard time selling the 3s at 1.4+.





EDIT:



Oh and on your picture, the 2nd one being built from the cul-de-sac is a Plan 2 that is on the sale sheet for 1.268. The lot is HUGE and the view is great... but it's so close to the toll road and where the fires burned.
 
[quote author="gypsyuma" date=1242079412][quote author="hesitating" date=1241288195]Thanks for all your opinions. I'll soon make my decision of buying or not. Maybe more towards 'buy' just because the money factor. With my max budget of 450k for a 3-bed home, it's hard for me to find one at this time with non-remodeling condition since I have no extra money to change anything inside the condo.</blockquote>


You are getting a 3 bedroom in PS for less than 450K? Which one - which plan are you buying? Did you decide? I thought seriously about buying a La Paloma 3 bedroom, but it was more than $650k. In the end it was the high mella roos, high HOA, no schools nearby, and high base price that made me decide now was not the right time to buy.</blockquote>


Well still about 15K more than my budget. I got the last plan E from San Carlos, but comparing to Paloma, there is no patio nor balcony except the courtyard sharing with neighbors. Just the mello roos on the northside of PS is about 1K higher than the southside PER YEAR. According to these IHF people say, price will eventually drop at least another 10% therefore it worth to wait if you are single or couples with no children.
 
[quote author="hesitating" date=1242135076][quote author="gypsyuma" date=1242079412][quote author="hesitating" date=1241288195]Thanks for all your opinions. I'll soon make my decision of buying or not. Maybe more towards 'buy' just because the money factor. With my max budget of 450k for a 3-bed home, it's hard for me to find one at this time with non-remodeling condition since I have no extra money to change anything inside the condo.</blockquote>


You are getting a 3 bedroom in PS for less than 450K? Which one - which plan are you buying? Did you decide? I thought seriously about buying a La Paloma 3 bedroom, but it was more than $650k. In the end it was the high mella roos, high HOA, no schools nearby, and high base price that made me decide now was not the right time to buy.</blockquote>


Well still about 15K more than my budget. I got the last plan E from San Carlos, but comparing to Paloma, there is no patio nor balcony except the courtyard sharing with neighbors. Just the mello roos on the northside of PS is about 1K higher than the southside PER YEAR. According to these IHF people say, price will eventually drop at least another 10% therefore it worth to wait if you are single or couples with no children.</blockquote>


So $465k for roughly 1500 sqare feet - that is roughly $310 per square foot. That is pretty high. The La Paloma plan I was interested in was listed for $658k and was 2320 sqaure feet -- roughly $284 per sqaure foot. And yours has no outdoor space. You are getting ripped my friend.
 
[quote author="gypsyuma" date=1242164920][quote author="hesitating" date=1242135076][quote author="gypsyuma" date=1242079412][quote author="hesitating" date=1241288195]Thanks for all your opinions. I'll soon make my decision of buying or not. Maybe more towards 'buy' just because the money factor. With my max budget of 450k for a 3-bed home, it's hard for me to find one at this time with non-remodeling condition since I have no extra money to change anything inside the condo.</blockquote>


You are getting a 3 bedroom in PS for less than 450K? Which one - which plan are you buying? Did you decide? I thought seriously about buying a La Paloma 3 bedroom, but it was more than $650k. In the end it was the high mella roos, high HOA, no schools nearby, and high base price that made me decide now was not the right time to buy.</blockquote>


Well still about 15K more than my budget. I got the last plan E from San Carlos, but comparing to Paloma, there is no patio nor balcony except the courtyard sharing with neighbors. Just the mello roos on the northside of PS is about 1K higher than the southside PER YEAR. According to these IHF people say, price will eventually drop at least another 10% therefore it worth to wait if you are single or couples with no children.</blockquote>


So $465k for roughly 1500 sqare feet - that is roughly $310 per square foot. That is pretty high. The La Paloma plan I was interested in was listed for $658k and was 2320 sqaure feet -- roughly $284 per sqaure foot. And yours has no outdoor space. You are getting ripped my friend.</blockquote>


True if you calculate by $/sq.ft., but the cruel fact is where are the extra 200k coming from?? Why can't builders build smaller units at $284/sq.ft...if so, I'll grab it without a doubt.
 
[quote author="High Gravity" date=1242087499]I'm terrified about the flood of Wal Mart patrons cascading off the 241 into Portola Springs.</blockquote>Going to a WalMart, or coming from a WalMart ?
 
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