Portola Springs Neighborhood 4B: Brisa, Celeste and Talise
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Isn't this the whole point? PS is a value village right now. Potential unknown. Folks buy here b/c it's cheaper than the rest of Irvine. Let's not kid ourselves with all these "reasons" why. I live across the street in the GP and PS/PP share a lot of the same shortcomings. Accept them and move on.
The reason Portola Springs is less expensive is not because it is far, lack of retail, not built out, or any other practical reason. If Portola Springs's low price can be explained by practical reasons, then Lambert Ranch and Pavilion Park should also have low prices because those neighborhoods are literally within Portola Springs. And we know LR and PP do not do not have Portola Springs' low prices.
The reason Portola Springs is low priced and has stayed that way since 2006 is because TIC wants it that way. In TIC Speak, PS is a Value Village. TIC will always have a Value Village in its current offerings. TIC prices new homes in PS below the average price of homes in surrounding developments as part of its business strategy. Since new homes set the benchmark price for resales, PS homes cannot ever equal neighboring communities.
Are Value Villages hopeless? History shows that once a Value Village is built out and TIC no longer has new homes to sell at discount prices, the home prices in the Value Village will slowly equalize to the surrounding communities. West Irvine is a good example of this. Unfortuately, Portola Springs is orders of magnitude larger than any previous TIC Value Village. Therefore, it will take years, decades, or longer before TIC ceses to control prices in Portola Springs.
The funny thing is TIC didn't always want it this way bc they saw the potential of PS with its elevation and surroundings. They tried to sell 2400sf duplex homes on an alley way for $900k-$1m back in 2007/2008 (and did for a few phases). Then the crash happened and they had to reset, scrap their plans and thus.... value village.
Same can be said for the Reserve at Orchard Hills. TIC increased density to sell smaller product at a lower price to capture a larger homebuying audience. It's interesting how people are debating the appreciation potential in various neighborhoods. If you're in the $1.25MM+ price point and want the best appreciation they you should be looking south of the 405. Never mind if Stonegate or Eastvale will appreciate more; or if Portola Springs will appreciate less.
In real estate, a rising tide will raise all boats...even Santa Ana. That said, North Irvine price appreciation will never compare with areas like South Irvine or NB/NC. Historically, attached product in Newport Coast have appreciated more than detached product in North Irvine.
Let?s be fair though and recognize that these tracts sold at basically the bottom. Anyone who bought a house (resale or new) at the ?bottoms? (2009/2011/first part of 2012) probably did pretty well. These tracts were among the only new homes selling at the time. Woodbury 2010 collection and Laguna altura also come to mind. So what does LR having 50% appreciation (using your numbers) versus 35% appreciation at LV (using your numbers) say about PS? Maybe the LV folks should have paid a bit more and gotten the better appreciation?
I'd say the appreciation is around 40% for Las Ventanas.
Eastwood feels a bit like Bitcoin to me where it's being driven largely by momentum. This momentum is a result of the lack of inventory in the sub $1m market along with a bit of a "flavor of the moment" factor (similar to ADMs being charged for any new Porsche GT car that is hard to get). Let's see how things look in 5-10 years once Eastwood isn't the new shiny toy anymore.
That being said, it comes down to what people are looking for. I could have bought anywhere in Irvine really but I was looking for a single-story home with a 3-car garage that wasn't too old (that ruled out Turtle Rock and Woodbridge) and found it in Tustin Ranch. Will my home appreciate as much as some of newer Irvine homes? Most likely not but I don't really mind as I found a home that has the right floor plan and features for my needs. I'll focus on trading options to make up any lost appreciation. haha
irvineorbust said:
Isn't this the whole point? PS is a value village right now. Potential unknown. Folks buy here b/c it's cheaper than the rest of Irvine. Let's not kid ourselves with all these "reasons" why. I live across the street in the GP and PS/PP share a lot of the same shortcomings. Accept them and move on.
irvineorbust said:irvine buyer said:
Portola Springs didn't have anything much around and near them for many years. Things can and will be different mainly because of, if Portolar High school and all other newly open public schools go up the rank like Northwood schools and Beckman did. Also the businesses coming to near Spectrum and the southern part of GP, (too bad Broadcom won't be as big as they thought they would and Amazon HQ is not coming) should help also.
I remember when Woodbury opened, it seemed little too far from old Irvine, but not any more... same thing with all other newly built neighborhoods...
I'm sure, including myself, if folks had more money, they would buy in Orchard Hills or Hidden canyon instead of Portola Springs, but it has good potentials. I used to live in Westpark 1. The houses were built in 80s but relatively more expensive mainly because (I think, but also a "central" location) it was slated to Uni high which was quite far. A couple of years ago, IUSD rezoned it to Woodbridge High, which is popular among white population which is shrinking significantly in Irvine but also tanking on the high school ranking. I don't think the home price there is going through the roof now. Same thing with Westpark 2, which was build in early 90s. A very nice neighborhood with great k-8 school and Woodbridge high zoned only to be rezoned to Irvine high, which is considered "the worst and most ghetto" high school in Irvine. I know many folks transferred their kids out to Northwood and even moved out of that area so they could avoid sending their kids to Irvine high. it's crazy and bit extreme but that's what happened. For Portola High, as I mentioned a couple of times, most smart jr high graduates from Jeffery Trails went to Portola instead of Northwood when the new school opened. I'm thinking the API score gotta be pretty good while sport program may suck in the years to come...
So Portola springs 1 and 2 being way out there with nothing around 10 years ago is a different story now with PS 4,5, and possibly 6 with GP being developed hopefully with some retail shops, more parks and recreations, better roads already done, better schools, and businesses near by will only going to help at least sustaining home values. There is no f'ng way 20% drop in Irvine in 2 years unless there is a catastrophic event happens. Then it's everywhere not just Irvine and will probably bounce back rather quickly.
The reason Portola Springs is less expensive is not because it is far, lack of retail, not built out, or any other practical reason. If Portola Springs's low price can be explained by practical reasons, then Lambert Ranch and Pavilion Park should also have low prices because those neighborhoods are literally within Portola Springs. And we know LR and PP do not do not have Portola Springs' low prices.
The reason Portola Springs is low priced and has stayed that way since 2006 is because TIC wants it that way. In TIC Speak, PS is a Value Village. TIC will always have a Value Village in its current offerings. TIC prices new homes in PS below the average price of homes in surrounding developments as part of its business strategy. Since new homes set the benchmark price for resales, PS homes cannot ever equal neighboring communities.
Are Value Villages hopeless? History shows that once a Value Village is built out and TIC no longer has new homes to sell at discount prices, the home prices in the Value Village will slowly equalize to the surrounding communities. West Irvine is a good example of this. Unfortuately, Portola Springs is orders of magnitude larger than any previous TIC Value Village. Therefore, it will take years, decades, or longer before TIC ceses to control prices in Portola Springs.
Happiness said:
The funny thing is TIC didn't always want it this way bc they saw the potential of PS with its elevation and surroundings. They tried to sell 2400sf duplex homes on an alley way for $900k-$1m back in 2007/2008 (and did for a few phases). Then the crash happened and they had to reset, scrap their plans and thus.... value village.
irvine buyer
Active member
bones said:
Same can be said for the Reserve at Orchard Hills. TIC increased density to sell smaller product at a lower price to capture a larger homebuying audience. It's interesting how people are debating the appreciation potential in various neighborhoods. If you're in the $1.25MM+ price point and want the best appreciation they you should be looking south of the 405. Never mind if Stonegate or Eastvale will appreciate more; or if Portola Springs will appreciate less.
In real estate, a rising tide will raise all boats...even Santa Ana. That said, North Irvine price appreciation will never compare with areas like South Irvine or NB/NC. Historically, attached product in Newport Coast have appreciated more than detached product in North Irvine.
OCLuvr
Active member
I have mentioned this earlier also. All the newer villages--e.g. WB/WBE/SG etc-- are pretty much built out and PS is still building ( PS is 4 times bigger than most of these villages). We should compare appreciation when PS is completely built out. BTW, if I am correct, Las ventanas, PS tract, had best appreciation is Irvine--more than 50%
Burn That Belly
New member
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Burn That Belly
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OCLuvr said:
Let?s be fair though and recognize that these tracts sold at basically the bottom. Anyone who bought a house (resale or new) at the ?bottoms? (2009/2011/first part of 2012) probably did pretty well. These tracts were among the only new homes selling at the time. Woodbury 2010 collection and Laguna altura also come to mind. So what does LR having 50% appreciation (using your numbers) versus 35% appreciation at LV (using your numbers) say about PS? Maybe the LV folks should have paid a bit more and gotten the better appreciation?
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
OCLuvr said:
I'd say the appreciation is around 40% for Las Ventanas.
Burn That Belly
New member
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usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Burn That Belly said:Bottom line is very simple and I don't mean to discourage anyone from buying in Portola Springs. It's a great neighborhood for what it is. It's the Hyundai alternative to the Lexus IS350 or the BMW 340i. Same good horsepower and seats the same people. You get more for less whereas on the BMW/Lexus you have to pay for options/packages. You'll buy the Hyundai at a great price and you'll brag to friends about the money you saved and you can use the difference to buy other disposable stuff.
But let's be real about this. There is NO WAY in hell, that anyone would pay $1M dollar for an "attached" townhome in Portola Springs. Not in 2018!
But in Eastwood, and we're only in the beginning of 2018, the attached stucco box Delano is going to break $1M real soon.
Why do we need to wait for neighborhoods to be built out? What's the difference between the price being charged by the builder vs. the price being charged by a ruthless greedy reseller?
Eastwood feels a bit like Bitcoin to me where it's being driven largely by momentum. This momentum is a result of the lack of inventory in the sub $1m market along with a bit of a "flavor of the moment" factor (similar to ADMs being charged for any new Porsche GT car that is hard to get). Let's see how things look in 5-10 years once Eastwood isn't the new shiny toy anymore.
That being said, it comes down to what people are looking for. I could have bought anywhere in Irvine really but I was looking for a single-story home with a 3-car garage that wasn't too old (that ruled out Turtle Rock and Woodbridge) and found it in Tustin Ranch. Will my home appreciate as much as some of newer Irvine homes? Most likely not but I don't really mind as I found a home that has the right floor plan and features for my needs. I'll focus on trading options to make up any lost appreciation. haha
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
We looked at PS hard... very close to buying there on at least 4-5 different occasions.
In the end, it was just too far.
Had we bought though, there was appreciation from each point in time we considered it so it would have been an okay decision to buy there, sell and move closer. We were just tired of moving all the time.
I think Las Ventanas and Quinterra were the last ones we considered. As USC has exampled, Las Ventanas would have been fine because if we bought there when it was being built, we could have cashed in now. Quinterra I'm not too sure because it was already high and I don't know how resales are going today.
I find it funny how Orchard Hills is considered high-end when Portola Springs has the same topography.
In the end, it was just too far.
Had we bought though, there was appreciation from each point in time we considered it so it would have been an okay decision to buy there, sell and move closer. We were just tired of moving all the time.
I think Las Ventanas and Quinterra were the last ones we considered. As USC has exampled, Las Ventanas would have been fine because if we bought there when it was being built, we could have cashed in now. Quinterra I'm not too sure because it was already high and I don't know how resales are going today.
I find it funny how Orchard Hills is considered high-end when Portola Springs has the same topography.