Orchard Hills 4 - "The Summit" Updates

[irviniteeee]

Are we really surprised that new construction lots in Irvine are going to be small? You might have a handful of lots that are "averaged" sized in LA standards, but this shouldn't be a surprise guys. It's Irvine.....

But I don't think most of the lots are supposed to be small. I think many of them are supposed to be 5k+. I remember one of them was even 17k when they first revealed the tract maps. Then again, who knows with this overhaul.

 

[sleepy5136]

But I don't think most of the lots are supposed to be small. I think many of them are supposed to be 5k+. I remember one of them was even 17k when they first revealed the tract maps. Then again, who knows with this overhaul.

Like how all the sales people In GP say they are going to build more facilities, amenities, and a grocery store to prevent Woodbury from overcrowding? What came out of that? A water park.

Unless that information was in writing on their website I would take any info from anyone with a grain of salt.

 

[Danimal]

Not sure if this is truly credible, dont quote me on it. An IP construction manager just told me that IP is selling OH4 to Toll Brothers for $1 billion. He thinks TB will be the main builder and the new homes will be super expensive considered how how TB pays for the land.

 

[irviniteeee]

Not sure if this is truly credible, dont quote me on it. An IP construction manager just told me that IP is selling OH4 to Toll Brothers for $1 billion. He thinks TB will be the main builder and the new homes will be super expensive considered how how TB pays for the land.

Good news if true. Hopefully they build more of their signature style homes like The Vistas.

 

[cr84158]

Not sure if this is truly credible, dont quote me on it. An IP construction manager just told me that IP is selling OH4 to Toll Brothers for $1 billion. He thinks TB will be the main builder and the new homes will be super expensive considered how how TB pays for the land.

That land price will make OH4 more expensive than HC....

 

[irviniteeee]

That land price will make OH4 more expensive than HC....

I wouldn't be shocked...

 

[sgip]

If $1B for land, and assuming -200 or so homes from TIC's original plan given a larger TB footprint, you can almost price out what to expect once they finally start building. My guess is they'll break the $4m base price level for their non-view homes.

 

[CalBears96]

If $1B for land, and assuming -200 or so homes from TIC's original plan given a larger TB footprint, you can almost price out what to expect once they finally start building. My guess is they'll break the $4m base price level for their non-view homes.

There's no way there's as little as 200 homes built on that $1B land. Assuming base price of $4M and average price of $5M, 200 homes would just bring it to $1B. That's not even breaking even. Bluffs sales lady told me a couple weeks ago that TIC would take a cut out of the home sales also. And we haven't even factored in labor and materials yet.

So if TIC's original plan was for 200 homes, there's no way TB would buy the land for $1B. The math doesn't add up. There would need to be 400-500 homes to make it profitable for TB.

 

[cr84158]

There's no way there's as little as 200 homes built on that $1B land. Assuming base price of $4M and average price of $5M, 200 homes would just bring it to $1B. That's not even breaking even. Bluffs sales lady told me a couple weeks ago that TIC would take a cut out of the home sales also. And we haven't even factored in labor and materials yet.

So if TIC's original plan was for 200 homes, there's no way TB would buy the land for $1B. The math doesn't add up. There would need to be 400-500 homes to make it profitable for TB.

512 homes as planned. 200 homes are original plan which is target for shady canyon style custom home but they changed

 

[CalBears96]

512 homes as planned. 200 homes are original plan which is target for shady canyon style custom home but they changed

That makes more sense.

 

[sgip]

I wasn't clear enough on the first post.

If TIC was planning 1000 homes on the land, given TB's usual footprint, you could remove 200 of those homes from TIC's master plan ( plus or minus, of course) and see about 800 homes being built. From there you can guesstimate what the eventual starting prices will range thereabouts. If the original TIC plan was 512 homes, my guess is that TB's will be 50-75 homes less, but significantly bigger than the TIC product requiring larger lots and of course more $$$$$$ per square foot.... which goes practically without saying.

 

[CalBears96]

My bad. I misread -200 as ~200.

 

[sleepy5136]

4m+ home with 510 neighbors? No thanks. At that price point the minimum should be 0.5 acre lot for each house. Otherwise I go to Hawaii and 4m can get me ocean views and single level with 0.5 acre land minimum.

 

[Yoda]

Not sure if this is truly credible, dont quote me on it. An IP construction manager just told me that IP is selling OH4 to Toll Brothers for $1 billion. He thinks TB will be the main builder and the new homes will be super expensive considered how how TB pays for the land.

I knew that Toll Brothers would be one of the builders being considered by TIC for OH4. TB being a large builder and a publicly traded company probably can afford to shell out that type of money for land. Hope to see homes similar to the Vistas and Hidden Canyon being built in OH4. Given the current prices in Irvine they will probably not sell those for less than $4M-$5M depending on the lots and square footage of the homes.

 

[sgip]

TIC would likely be more than willing to carry paper on the land deal. It's a smart play. If things sour, they repossess. If things go well, either they equity share in the sales price of each unit, or they get a 7-9% yield on $1B.

Expect the FCB's and their agents to revv up the laundering process so their pool of speculators buyer will be prepped and ready to buy.

 

[Yoda]

FCB's will probably fill up the priority lists pretty fast on these homes. FCB's are one of the reasons why prices in Irvine haven't come down yet.

 

[irviniteeee]

TIC would likely be more than willing to carry paper on the land deal. It's a smart play. If things sour, they repossess. If things go well, either they equity share in the sales price of each unit, or they get a 7-9% yield on $1B.

Expect the FCB's and their agents to revv up the laundering process so their pool of speculators buyer will be prepped and ready to buy.

LOL the laundering process part made me laugh out loud.

 

[sleepy5136]

LOL the laundering process part made me laugh out loud.

funny because it's true

 

[irviniteeee]

Thank God IP is allegedly selling off this plot of land to someone else. I'm taking a look at the originally approved plans, and they were just going to build more Fresco, Azul, & Cielo...the only new product was this unnamed tract that I attached. I think those would have been IP's largest size homes to date ~ 3500-4300 sq ft & 3 car split garage in the last one.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

The first floor plan is good. Return of the tandem garage, 2 downstairs bathrooms and double master closets.