Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market?

[Liar Loan]

Thanks Captain Obvious.  Lol

?The market is slowing down, I?m the only one who predicted this? - Liar Loan

I've never made a prediction that housing would "slow down".  If that's what you believe the extent of the damage will be, then you are deluding yourself, not unlike many others here.

Well as someone said earlier.
It's the brave forecaster who says housing will go up another 10% from here.

It's easy to forecast a down turn when housing has gone up 30% since 2019.

I mean not that I disagree, but why aren't more people forecasting a downturn then?  Mark Zandi seems to be the boldest public prognosticator and he's only calling for a 5-10% downturn in select markets. 

The posters on TalkIrvine, for the most part, are in complete denial.  Several have been taking their frustrations out on me (the second stage of grief).

 

[Kenkoko]

Bearish takes are often met with hostility on TI.

It's unfortunate but understandable.

Many likely have RE as the biggest slice of their total net worth, therefore have heavily vested interest in seeing housing continue to go up.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Noooooooooo, you mean it.doesn?t go up FOEVAR?


I thought, housing / real estate, and stonks only goes up. No one ever told me it could go down. Whowoulddaknow.

Oh yes, it only goes up when the FED willing to buy anything and everything. And our government money helicopter is now stop flying, sky high values get realities check.

 

[CalBears96]

Bearish takes are often met with hostility on TI.

You know that's not true. Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, on TI is predicting that housing price is peaking this summer and will start flattening out. Really, anyone who thinks that housing price will keep continuing to climb beyond this year is a fool. Or maybe a brave forecaster, as zubs puts it.  ;D

What was met with hostility is a certain fool who refused to admit he was wrong about Irvine housing and has pretty much been posting junk.

Like TestingIrvine said, Captain Obvious.

 

[zubs]

Bearish takes are often met with hostility on TI.

It's unfortunate but understandable.

Many likely have RE as the biggest slice of their total net worth, therefore have heavily vested interest in seeing housing continue to go up.

You think bears get trounced here because you joined Talkirvine late.

We were originally a bear board and talked all kinds of bearish shit from 2007 to 2013....
TI changed to be more bullish because the market actually changed and we were not married to being negative forever.
You assume too much.

 

[Kenkoko]

Bearish takes are often met with hostility on TI.

It's unfortunate but understandable.

Many likely have RE as the biggest slice of their total net worth, therefore have heavily vested interest in seeing housing continue to go up.

You think bears get trounced here because you joined Talkirvine late.

We were originally a bear board and talked all kinds of bearish shit from 2007 to 2013....
TI changed to be more bullish because the market actually changed and we were not married to being negative forever.
You assume too much.

I am well aware of TI's history.

I joined the current TI late, but I started reading TI long before registering. (was even an occasional participant of TI in its former blog form)

TI ( in its former form) had a good balance of bears. It was one of the biggest reason I stuck around. Every other blog back in 07 was filled with bulls and unbalanced takes.

Now I could also say you assume too much, but I won't. 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Bearish takes are often met with hostility on TI.

It's unfortunate but understandable.

Many likely have RE as the biggest slice of their total net worth, therefore have heavily vested interest in seeing housing continue to go up.

This is not fair.

It's only certain posters' revisionist history posts that get diced up.

I don't really care that much if Irvine housing goes up or down... I have no control over that... I do wish it was more affordable for first time buyers... and even move-up buyers.

But that's the point, Irvine has premium that someone does not want to admit.

 

[zubs]

Bearish takes are often met with hostility on TI.

It's unfortunate but understandable.

Many likely have RE as the biggest slice of their total net worth, therefore have heavily vested interest in seeing housing continue to go up.

You think bears get trounced here because you joined Talkirvine late.

We were originally a bear board and talked all kinds of bearish shit from 2007 to 2013....
TI changed to be more bullish because the market actually changed and we were not married to being negative forever.
You assume too much.

I am well aware of TI's history.

I joined the current TI late, but I started reading TI long before registering. (was even an occasional participant of TI in its former blog form)

TI ( in its former form) had a good balance of bears. It was one of the biggest reason I stuck around. Every other blog back in 07 was filled with bulls and unbalanced takes.

Now I could also say you assume too much, but I won't. 

You make this forum sound like we are all bulls, while the poor bears get persecuted....oh poor Liarloan.  If only his predictions were more accurate. 


This is not a bull forum.  We attack Liarloan because he keeps saying how right he was to advise people not to buy in 2018....which in 2022 is totally wrong.  Maybe he will be right in 2023!

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Could buy in Garbage Grove for a nice discount.

Close to Disney and Knott Berry and save some money on gas too. Wins wins.

This Liars Loans hometown. He wins

 

[zubs]

You know what LL would say....
If you bought in 2018 you would only be up 25% now.
If you bought in 2019 you would be up 30%!!!!


So technically 5% right ...good job?

 

[Liar Loan]

You know what LL would say....
If you bought in 2018 you would only be up 25% now.
If you bought in 2019 you would be up 30%!!!!


So technically 5% right ...good job?

Irvine was declining while the rest of SoCal was gaining, so opportunity costs.  An 8% loss (according to USC's conservative calculation) is bad when the rest of OC is going up 10%+.  When Riverside is crashing harder we gladly accept that Irvine is the better performing opportunity, but when Irvine is doing worse than Riverside - RIVERSIDE!! - we don't like to talk about that so much.

The belief on TI prior to 2018 was that Irvine was always "last to fall and first to recover".  The massive underperformance in 2018 that nobody saw coming thoroughly debunked that myth.

 

[CalBears96]

You know what LL would say....
If you bought in 2018 you would only be up 25% now.
If you bought in 2019 you would be up 30%!!!!


So technically 5% right ...good job?

Irvine was declining while the rest of SoCal was gaining, so opportunity costs.  An 8% loss (according to USC's conservative calculation) is bad when the rest of OC is going up 10%+.  When Riverside is crashing harder we gladly accept that Irvine is the better performing opportunity, but when Irvine is doing worse than Riverside - RIVERSIDE!! - we don't like to talk about that so much.

The belief on TI prior to 2018 was that Irvine was always "last to fall and first to recover".  The massive underperformance in 2018 that nobody saw coming thoroughly debunked that myth.

That's because Riverside was lagging Orange County. Ever thought about that?

 

[usctrojancpa]

Bearish takes are often met with hostility on TI.

It's unfortunate but understandable.

Many likely have RE as the biggest slice of their total net worth, therefore have heavily vested interest in seeing housing continue to go up.

I forecast back in Jan that we would see prices up about 10% from 2021 this year but that all the price gains would come in the first half of the year and that the second half of the year would be turbulent with flattish pricing. 

 

[Kenkoko]

Bearish takes are often met with hostility on TI.

It's unfortunate but understandable.

Many likely have RE as the biggest slice of their total net worth, therefore have heavily vested interest in seeing housing continue to go up.

I forecast back in Jan that we would see prices up about 10% from 2021 this year but that all the price gains would come in the first half of the year and that the second half of the year would be turbulent with flattish pricing.

Thanks USC, I remember seeing your forecast. And with all due respect, that's not exactly a bearish take.

I appreciate people (like USC and LL) posting their convictions. Especially if they are nuanced and came from data driven approaches. 

Doesn't matter if they are bullish, bearish, or neutral.

It's always better to hear from both sides. Was just reminded of this from watching the Johnny Depp case.

Amber Heard?s greatest achievement may be that she?s helped ignite a #MenToo Dialogue, not a #MeToo Monologue.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Bearish takes are often met with hostility on TI.

It's unfortunate but understandable.

Many likely have RE as the biggest slice of their total net worth, therefore have heavily vested interest in seeing housing continue to go up.

I forecast back in Jan that we would see prices up about 10% from 2021 this year but that all the price gains would come in the first half of the year and that the second half of the year would be turbulent with flattish pricing.

Thanks USC, I remember seeing your forecast. And with all due respect, that's not exactly a bearish take.

I appreciate people (like USC and LL) posting their convictions. Especially if they are nuanced and came from data driven approaches. 

Doesn't matter if they are bullish, bearish, or neutral.

It's always better to hear from both sides. Was just reminded of this from watching the Johnny Depp case.

Amber Heard?s greatest achievement may be that she?s helped ignite a #MenToo Dialogue, not a #MeToo Monologue.

I try to let the market speak to me because making guestimates of where the market may go.  I call'em as I see'em and don't have a vested interest in being a bull or bear.  I prefer a neutral market because that is where a good agent can really shine. Has the market slowed in Irvine?  Yes  Have prices started falling in Irvine in general?  No  We are still sitting at about 1 month of inventory which is still a sellers market and we need to get to at least 3 months of inventory before we can talk about price declines.

 

[CalBears96]

I appreciate people (like USC and LL) posting their convictions. Especially if they are nuanced and came from data driven approaches. 

I find this statement laughable.

Like Martin said, he calls them as he sees them. He's in the field practically every day and pretty much just reports what he sees.  As a buyer AND seller agent, he has no vested interested in being a bear or a bull. The ONLY thing that is important to Martin, as he has stated time and time, is inventory. The more inventory, the better for Martin. Why, you may ask? To paraphrase Martin, any monkey can sell a home in this market. It's very difficult being a buyer right now. Don't forget that Martin also represents buyers. The more inventory, the more chances for his buyers to secure a home. So, again, home prices don't matter much to Martin. Lots and lots of inventory is what Martin looks for.

Now, LL, on the other hand, he cherry picks data (and compares apples and oranges) to fits the narrative of his "conviction". He made a wrong call. Instead of owning up to it, he double downs on his mistake with lies.

I respect Martin's posts because they are formed based on what he sees in the field.

I have no respect whatsoever for LL because he can't admit that he's wrong. What's worse is that he's a hypocrite, writing in another thread that people should admit they're wrong instead of double down on their mistakes.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Bearish takes are often met with hostility on TI.

It's unfortunate but understandable.

Many likely have RE as the biggest slice of their total net worth, therefore have heavily vested interest in seeing housing continue to go up.

I forecast back in Jan that we would see prices up about 10% from 2021 this year but that all the price gains would come in the first half of the year and that the second half of the year would be turbulent with flattish pricing.

Thanks USC, I remember seeing your forecast. And with all due respect, that's not exactly a bearish take.

I appreciate people (like USC and LL) posting their convictions. Especially if they are nuanced and came from data driven approaches. 

Doesn't matter if they are bullish, bearish, or neutral.

It's always better to hear from both sides.

Let's not forget that when I said anytime is a good time to buy with caveats... you, LL, eyephone and meccos12 were piling on me about that.

So let's not be so pointy fingery on who is bear/bull here... it's more about who stands behind their positions and admits if they were wrong.

Something someone has yet to do.

Edit: Pretty much saying the same thing as CalBears.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Irvine was declining while the rest of SoCal was gaining, so opportunity costs.  An 8% loss (according to USC's conservative calculation) is bad when the rest of OC is going up 10%+.  When Riverside is crashing harder we gladly accept that Irvine is the better performing opportunity, but when Irvine is doing worse than Riverside - RIVERSIDE!! - we don't like to talk about that so much.

The belief on TI prior to 2018 was that Irvine was always "last to fall and first to recover".  The massive underperformance in 2018 that nobody saw coming thoroughly debunked that myth.

Another example of your straight up lying. What was this "massive underperformance"? Single digit percentage? And you STILL have not posted where Cares and USC confirmed some "massive" drop for Irvine vs OC.

And cherry picking... extend out your timeline past 2020... what does it look like now for Irvine vs OC? And... did you include new home sales? Something Irvine has that most of OC does not. That could be the difference in your GIGANTIC 2%+ difference.

Just digging your hole deeper.

 

[Kenkoko]

I appreciate people (like USC and LL) posting their convictions. Especially if they are nuanced and came from data driven approaches. 

I find this statement laughable.

Like Martin said, he calls them as he sees them. He's in the field practically every day and pretty much just reports what he sees.  As a buyer AND seller agent, he has no vested interested in being a bear or a bull. The ONLY thing that is important to Martin, as he has stated time and time, is inventory. The more inventory, the better for Martin. Why, you may ask? To paraphrase Martin, any monkey can sell a home in this market. It's very difficult being a buyer right now. Don't forget that Martin also represents buyers. The more inventory, the more chances for his buyers to secure a home. So, again, home prices don't matter much to Martin. Lots and lots of inventory is what Martin looks for.

Now, LL, on the other hand, he cherry picks data (and compares apples and oranges) to fits the narrative of his "conviction". He made a wrong call. Instead of owning up to it, he double downs on his mistake with lies.

I respect Martin's posts because they are formed based on what he sees in the field.

I have no respect whatsoever for LL because he can't admit that he's wrong. What's worse is that he's a hypocrite, writing in another thread that people should admit they're wrong instead of double down on their mistakes.

Calbear, I disagreed with LL on many issues. I disagree with SGIP on lots of issues. I disagree with IHO on some issues.

Yet, I still believe it?s possible to disagree with someone and still feel that person is worthy of respect.

I use TI for information. Substantive and diverse discourse is what intrigues me.

Even if you disagree with LL on RE, he has been around for a long time & made great points and given good perspective on other subjects.

That's my perspective. You don't have to agree. You'll probably find this laughable too, and that's just fine.

And what exactly is the point of trying to get someone to " admit they were wrong" ?

If you truly have such an negative opinion of LL, why not just mute / block him?

It might be better so we can have more civil discourse and not stoop down to 5th grade drama.

@IHO, in my mind, I've always been civil & respectful to you even when I was "piling up" on you with others. I hope you saw it that way too.

 

[Danimal]

I will be the first to block you, moreBS and ll.  No option to mute/block someone here on IT. Such an old school forum.