Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market?

[nosuchreality]

Redfin Reports The Share of Sellers Dropping Their Asking Price Is Climbing Past Last Year?s Rate

Twelve percent of homes for sale had a price drop during the four weeks ending April 3, up from 9% a year earlier and the highest share since early December. The rate of sellers dropping their prices is growing faster month over month than it has since August.

"The slowdown over the last two weeks has felt significant," said Seattle-area Redfin real estate agent Dee Heyerdahl. "Usually April is when the spring homebuying and selling market begins to heat up, but this year things are cooling down a bit instead. Listings that a month ago would have had a dozen interested buyers touring in a single day now see less action than that in a whole week.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/redfin-reports-share-sellers-dropping-171200418.html

Good, I hope it continues for my buyers.  I made 5 offers for one buyer in less than a week, each home had multiple offers and we were lucky enough to get one of the homes.

If Liar Loan is right and prices drop, I hope they drop 40% (I don't care if my own places drop along too).

Of course I don't believe that will happen, but a girl can dream, right?

I'm eyeing something like this one:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Corona-Del-Mar/2608-Cove-St-92625/home/3254305

It's a little 2 bedroom cracker box place on the sand in CDM.

40% off within two years gets me my basis of $830K with no mello moved.

I could come visit ya all for the summers!

That?s you and about 15 million of the 19 million Southern Californians.

Anybody comparing Kingman - Havasu to OC/LA isn?t professional, it?s just clickbait.  You?d laugh if you saw Salton Sea on the list, but that?s basically what Kingman is.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Call me naive, and I can understand if you do, but somehow, unless you just came from Mars or drop out of the sky, the news about the coming crash will not materialize bcos we all been waiting for it. When you have mass media, for months on, predicting the in-coming crash, it will not occur, because everyone already in the bunker and waiting for the event which won't occur. Its when it happen without any bell and whistle and taken people by suprise that the crash will happen.

So the best bang we will get is a dragout slow down. And prices remain high. Bummer for R2D will not able to get that beach box.

 

[zovall]

So the best bang we will get is a dragout slow down. And prices remain high.

I agree with that. Things are slowing but prices are sticky..
https://www.redfin.com/news/pricey-coastal-metros-california-housing-market-cooldown/

 

[Ready2Downsize]

She did but her new place isn't done yet and has gone up in price.

Unfortunately it's in California so ridiculous taxes but that's what she wants.

 

[Liar Loan]

She did but her new place isn't done yet and has gone up in price.

Unfortunately it's in California so ridiculous taxes but that's what she wants.

Still a good position to be in.  Effectively, she has an option on housing.  If prices really start to tank, she can cancel her contract.

 

[The Motor Court Company]

given how competitive it was to get a new home, and there is already some equity gain, and probably very emotionally invested, i don?t think anyone will drop out from a new home contract unless there is a rug pull (collapse of the financial system) or some life change event.

She did but her new place isn't done yet and has gone up in price.

Unfortunately it's in California so ridiculous taxes but that's what she wants.

Still a good position to be in.  Effectively, she has an option on housing.  If prices really start to tank, she can cancel her contract.

 

[usctrojancpa]

given how competitive it was to get a new home, and there is already some equity gain, and probably very emotionally invested, i don?t think anyone will drop out from a new home contract unless there is a rug pull (collapse of the financial system) or some life change event.

She did but her new place isn't done yet and has gone up in price.

Unfortunately it's in California so ridiculous taxes but that's what she wants.

Still a good position to be in.  Effectively, she has an option on housing.  If prices really start to tank, she can cancel her contract.

Agreed, some of my Irvine new home buyers are closing with 15% and even as high as 20% equity appreciation from the time that they got into contact and many of them have seen their exit properties appreciation 15-20% since that time so they are getting a double dip on appreciation.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

given how competitive it was to get a new home, and there is already some equity gain, and probably very emotionally invested, i don?t think anyone will drop out from a new home contract unless there is a rug pull (collapse of the financial system) or some life change event.

She did but her new place isn't done yet and has gone up in price.

Unfortunately it's in California so ridiculous taxes but that's what she wants.

Still a good position to be in.  Effectively, she has an option on housing.  If prices really start to tank, she can cancel her contract.

Agreed, some of my Irvine new home buyers are closing with 15% and even as high as 20% equity appreciation from the time that they got into contact and many of them have seen their exit properties appreciation 15-20% since that time so they are getting a double dip on appreciation.

Amazing! You can not make-up stuffs like this. Nice!

 

[huuur]

Good for them, but this is from 2021's crazy growth, the question is will the same trend continue in 2022?

given how competitive it was to get a new home, and there is already some equity gain, and probably very emotionally invested, i don?t think anyone will drop out from a new home contract unless there is a rug pull (collapse of the financial system) or some life change event.

She did but her new place isn't done yet and has gone up in price.

Unfortunately it's in California so ridiculous taxes but that's what she wants.

Still a good position to be in.  Effectively, she has an option on housing.  If prices really start to tank, she can cancel her contract.

Agreed, some of my Irvine new home buyers are closing with 15% and even as high as 20% equity appreciation from the time that they got into contact and many of them have seen their exit properties appreciation 15-20% since that time so they are getting a double dip on appreciation.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Good for them, but this is from 2021's crazy growth, the question is will the same trend continue in 2022?

given how competitive it was to get a new home, and there is already some equity gain, and probably very emotionally invested, i don?t think anyone will drop out from a new home contract unless there is a rug pull (collapse of the financial system) or some life change event.

She did but her new place isn't done yet and has gone up in price.

Unfortunately it's in California so ridiculous taxes but that's what she wants.

Still a good position to be in.  Effectively, she has an option on housing.  If prices really start to tank, she can cancel her contract.

Agreed, some of my Irvine new home buyers are closing with 15% and even as high as 20% equity appreciation from the time that they got into contact and many of them have seen their exit properties appreciation 15-20% since that time so they are getting a double dip on appreciation.

It won't, I expect prices to be flattish for the rest of this year as prices are already up around 10% from the start of the year.

 

[potsticker]

My three predictions for the Irvine market for the remainder of 2022. Not that anyone really cares, but it's a way to hold me accountable.

1. Home prices under $2m will be flat for the rest of the year.
2. Home prices over $2m will pull back 2-5%, comparing Q1 2022 versus EOY 2022.
3. By the end of the year, we'll begin to hear about builders offering incentives to close deals - design center credits, interest rate buydowns, and increased broker co-ops.

Lets see what happens!

 

[irvinehomeowner]

@potsticker:

No pain?

 

[usctrojancpa]

My three predictions for the Irvine market for the remainder of 2022. Not that anyone really cares, but it's a way to hold me accountable.

1. Home prices under $2m will be flat for the rest of the year.
2. Home prices over $2m will pull back 2-5%, comparing Q1 2022 versus EOY 2022.
3. By the end of the year, we'll begin to hear about builders offering incentives to close deals - design center credits, interest rate buydowns, and increased broker co-ops.

Lets see what happens!

Yeah, I can see all those things happening.  As always, inventory levels will be the key.

 

[potsticker]

@potsticker:

No pain?

In Irvine, I don't expect any major pain. I see a more balanced market for the 2nd half of the year. Current owners won't be forced to sell - by now they've refinanced to decrease their mortgage payment. But, there will be a fair share of sellers looking to cash in and realize the equity they've gained the past couple of years.

On the buy-side, there will always be more than enough cash buyers for Irvine and they aren't as impacted by current events and interest rates.
Those impacted are those with their savings in stocks (esp tech), which are trading down to start the year. The reduced down payment and increase in interest rates will push those buyers to the sidelines - decreasing demand.

We'll see what happens moving forward.

 

[Ready2Downsize]

My three predictions for the Irvine market for the remainder of 2022. Not that anyone really cares, but it's a way to hold me accountable.

1. Home prices under $2m will be flat for the rest of the year.
2. Home prices over $2m will pull back 2-5%, comparing Q1 2022 versus EOY 2022.
3. By the end of the year, we'll begin to hear about builders offering incentives to close deals - design center credits, interest rate buydowns, and increased broker co-ops.

Lets see what happens!

Yeah, I can see all those things happening.  As always, inventory levels will be the key.

Could see more houses hit the market and just get sopped up by demand.

Zip I'm moving to has 14% more homes sold latest month than a year ago and the city next to mine has seen 18% more homes sold yoy. Despite that, prices have continued to rise even with rising rates. We're not talking low number of homes either...... Just shy of 500 homes sold in the month.

Time will tell what happens. Areas with more new homes being sold can see a bigger softening in resales with the builders sweeting deals. That's what happened in the post savings and loan housing downturn here locally. Since there isn't a whole lot of building here now, I wouldn't expect that to be an issue. Buyers will just have to buy smaller or not as nice a neighborhood as they could have a year ago.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

On the buy-side, there will always be more than enough cash buyers for Irvine and they aren't as impacted by current events and interest rates.

Why is it whenever I say this... I'm a crazy man?

Preach on brother man!!!

 

[potsticker]

My three predictions for the Irvine market for the remainder of 2022. Not that anyone really cares, but it's a way to hold me accountable.

1. Home prices under $2m will be flat for the rest of the year.
2. Home prices over $2m will pull back 2-5%, comparing Q1 2022 versus EOY 2022.
3. By the end of the year, we'll begin to hear about builders offering incentives to close deals - design center credits, interest rate buydowns, and increased broker co-ops.

Lets see what happens!

Yeah, I can see all those things happening.  As always, inventory levels will be the key.

Could see more houses hit the market and just get sopped up by demand.

Zip I'm moving to has 14% more homes sold latest month than a year ago and the city next to mine has seen 18% more homes sold yoy. Despite that, prices have continued to rise even with rising rates. We're not talking low number of homes either...... Just shy of 500 homes sold in the month.

Time will tell what happens. Areas with more new homes being sold can see a bigger softening in resales with the builders sweeting deals. That's what happened in the post savings and loan housing downturn here locally. Since there isn't a whole lot of building here now, I wouldn't expect that to be an issue. Buyers will just have to buy smaller or not as nice a neighborhood as they could have a year ago.

There is a lag with this. I have a couple of friends/clients who have been house shopping for several months now. We've consistently been up against 15-20 offers on everything that we've bid on. With interesting rates ticking up, they're getting a bit antsy, but still bidding because they're more optimistic as there are now 5-10 offers instead of double that. If interest ticks up towards the mid-5's...they will likely go to the sidelines. So, it's a race against time (and inflation). I'd expect as we move into summer - things won't be as hot.

 

[qwerty]

On the buy-side, there will always be more than enough cash buyers for Irvine and they aren't as impacted by current events and interest rates.

Why is it whenever I say this... I'm a crazy man?

Preach on brother man!!!

That?s because no one other than me likes you here

Six pack brothers for life!! I would post the picture but to hard to find.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

IHO and qwerty... 6PB4L!

 

[CalBears96]

On the buy-side, there will always be more than enough cash buyers for Irvine and they aren't as impacted by current events and interest rates.

Why is it whenever I say this... I'm a crazy man?

Preach on brother man!!!

That?s because no one other than me likes you here

Six pack brothers for life!! I would post the picture but to hard to find.

That's not true. I like IHO.  ;D At least, more so than moretroll and LL.  ;D