Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market?

[Liar Loan]

Of the cities that Case-Shiller monitors, Los Angeles and San Diego have the distinctions of the being the #1 and #2 for price appreciation since 2000.  That means, even though OC and Irvine are not tracked separately, they probably performed similarly to these two cities, making their owners rich on paper. (Congrats existing loan owners!). 

Unfortunately, both cities have gone parabolic since March 2020 and their charts are now looking similar to the 2003-2005 time period, which, as you all know, was completely unsustainable.

 

[TestingIrvine]

Liar Loan Q4 2021: ?prices are too high they must come down?

Liar Loan Q1 2022: ?prices are too high they must come down?

Liar Loan Q2 2022: ?prices are too high they must come down?

A broken clock is eventually correct twice a day.

I hope you don?t give advice on stocks

 

[freedomcm]

Why so nasty, TestingIrvine?

It is hard to see how a 50% appreciation of house prices over two years is sustainable.

Its even a bit of a stretch to see how 2019 prices are sustainable, but I suppose with WFH for the silly valley set, it may be.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Of the cities that Case-Shiller monitors, Los Angeles and San Diego have the distinctions of the being the #1 and #2 for price appreciation since 2000.  That means, even though OC and Irvine are not tracked separately, they probably performed similarly to these two cities, making their owners rich on paper. (Congrats existing loan owners!). 

Unfortunately, both cities have gone parabolic since March 2020 and their charts are now looking similar to the 2003-2005 time period, which, as you all know, was completely unsustainable.

No need to overstate the case - we only have:
- escalating inflation
- fuel shocks
- potential food shortages
- supply chain bottleneck
- interest rate shocks/inversion
- a war in Eastern Europe
- AND bringing back the pandemic (v.4)

That's all for now.

 

[TestingIrvine]

Of the cities that Case-Shiller monitors, Los Angeles and San Diego have the distinctions of the being the #1 and #2 for price appreciation since 2000.  That means, even though OC and Irvine are not tracked separately, they probably performed similarly to these two cities, making their owners rich on paper. (Congrats existing loan owners!). 

Unfortunately, both cities have gone parabolic since March 2020 and their charts are now looking similar to the 2003-2005 time period, which, as you all know, was completely unsustainable.

No need to overstate the case - we only have:
- escalating inflation
- fuel shocks
- potential food shortages
- supply chain bottleneck
- interest rate shocks/inversion
- a war in Eastern Europe
- AND bringing back the pandemic (v.4)

That's all for now.

We all know prices need to stabilize. As TrojanCPA Martin states, we all look forward to this.

But you can?t claim the sky is falling for 9 months straight without looking like a buffoon.

As Martin and others have stated correctly, 2008 hosing cross was a sub-prime issue.  This is a completely different situation.

A broken clock is correct twice a day.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Why so nasty, TestingIrvine?

It is hard to see how a 50% appreciation of house prices over two years is sustainable.

Its even a bit of a stretch to see how 2019 prices are sustainable, but I suppose with WFH for the silly valley set, it may be.

To be fair... Liar Loan started it.

If you look at all his anti-Irvine posts, those are more insulting than what TestingIrvine posted... and it hasn't been just 9 months, LL has been predicting pain for years... he even revisionist history called pain for Irvine back in the 2006+ crash citing it was worse than the beach cities "safe havens"... which data proved inaccurate.

 

[Liar Loan]

There were many housing bulls in 2006 lashing out at bears, just like TestingIrvine is, that ultimately lost everything.  People get mad when you tell them their assets are overvalued and that they may lose money.  I understand, but it won't deter me from continuing to share this important information about housing (and other assets), because for every emotional housing bull like TestingIrvine, there are others reading and learning that may think twice about making the worst mistake of their lives.

IHO post a link to the conversation in question.  You have a history of putting words into my mouth and I need to see what it is you are referencing.

 

[TestingIrvine]

LL:
I agree prices are over-valued and need correction.

What I don?t agree is the ?sky is falling? comments for so many months/years you?ve claimed.

If you?re more balanced in your forecast I wouldn?t troll your as hard.  I think prices will stay stagnant for the rest of the year.  Worst case drop down 5-8%.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

LL:
I agree prices are over-valued and need correction.

What I don?t agree is the ?sky is falling? comments for so many months/years you?ve claimed.

If you?re more balanced in your forecast I wouldn?t troll your as hard.  I think prices will stay stagnant for the rest of the year.  Worst case drop down 5-8%.

Over-valued is a relative term. Nothing in Irvine is over valued. Simply put, if sellers are not getting targeted asking price and it?s not a low price to begin with, they are not interested in selling it. Look at how much homes available. And the continuing buy frenzy even in today market. Too much buyers and not enough homes. I like the contrarian play, but it is not enough to calm things down. As I posted before, even several factors at play and it still not slowing this Irvine market down.

So what would it take? Maybe a natural disaster at this point, with an earth quake of 10 on a Richter scale and level a good bit of homes to bring fears.

 

[Liar Loan]

Redfin Reports The Share of Sellers Dropping Their Asking Price Is Climbing Past Last Year?s Rate

Twelve percent of homes for sale had a price drop during the four weeks ending April 3, up from 9% a year earlier and the highest share since early December. The rate of sellers dropping their prices is growing faster month over month than it has since August.

"The slowdown over the last two weeks has felt significant," said Seattle-area Redfin real estate agent Dee Heyerdahl. "Usually April is when the spring homebuying and selling market begins to heat up, but this year things are cooling down a bit instead. Listings that a month ago would have had a dozen interested buyers touring in a single day now see less action than that in a whole week.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/redfin-reports-share-sellers-dropping-171200418.html

 

[Ready2Downsize]

Redfin Reports The Share of Sellers Dropping Their Asking Price Is Climbing Past Last Year?s Rate

Twelve percent of homes for sale had a price drop during the four weeks ending April 3, up from 9% a year earlier and the highest share since early December. The rate of sellers dropping their prices is growing faster month over month than it has since August.

"The slowdown over the last two weeks has felt significant," said Seattle-area Redfin real estate agent Dee Heyerdahl. "Usually April is when the spring homebuying and selling market begins to heat up, but this year things are cooling down a bit instead. Listings that a month ago would have had a dozen interested buyers touring in a single day now see less action than that in a whole week.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/redfin-reports-share-sellers-dropping-171200418.html

Count my daughter in that drop the price thing.

I told her to list under $1.2 million and she decided to list at $1,249,000. She decided maybe I was right and dropped it right off the bat $50K.

She just went into escrow with multiple offers within a week at $1.349K with 59 days rentback, appraisal waived yesterday.

In December she thought $1.1 million was a pipe dream. I told her not to worry she would get that easy. She's super happy but you're right! She dropped that price and baby she ended up $100K over her original price which is a record for her area by $100K.

So what say ye? Sign of bad times? She would have gotten that if she had listed for her orginal price. But yeah....... dropped price (within a few hours) so she counts as a dropped price.

 

[Liar Loan]

Tell her congratulations.  She is one of the smart ones selling now before conditions worsen.  My kind of girl.

P.S.  I liked your explanation about your upbringing.  It echoed the story of a lot of my family members.  Work hard and live simply until you can actually afford the thing you want to buy.  Most of my older relatives grew up working class or poor and that affects your habits for the rest of your life.  Many of the men were forced to join the military and some had to fight in Vietnam.  For some reason, giving up 2-3 years of their young lives to fight a war never gets mentioned when we talk about how easy Baby Boomers had it.

Anyway, my mom reminded me recently that when I was growing up in the 80's we still had a black & white TV.  Why not?  It still worked.  No need to buy a new one.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Redfin Reports The Share of Sellers Dropping Their Asking Price Is Climbing Past Last Year?s Rate

Twelve percent of homes for sale had a price drop during the four weeks ending April 3, up from 9% a year earlier and the highest share since early December. The rate of sellers dropping their prices is growing faster month over month than it has since August.

"The slowdown over the last two weeks has felt significant," said Seattle-area Redfin real estate agent Dee Heyerdahl. "Usually April is when the spring homebuying and selling market begins to heat up, but this year things are cooling down a bit instead. Listings that a month ago would have had a dozen interested buyers touring in a single day now see less action than that in a whole week.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/redfin-reports-share-sellers-dropping-171200418.html

Good, I hope it continues for my buyers.  I made 5 offers for one buyer in less than a week, each home had multiple offers and we were lucky enough to get one of the homes. 

 

[Ready2Downsize]

Redfin Reports The Share of Sellers Dropping Their Asking Price Is Climbing Past Last Year?s Rate

Twelve percent of homes for sale had a price drop during the four weeks ending April 3, up from 9% a year earlier and the highest share since early December. The rate of sellers dropping their prices is growing faster month over month than it has since August.

"The slowdown over the last two weeks has felt significant," said Seattle-area Redfin real estate agent Dee Heyerdahl. "Usually April is when the spring homebuying and selling market begins to heat up, but this year things are cooling down a bit instead. Listings that a month ago would have had a dozen interested buyers touring in a single day now see less action than that in a whole week.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/redfin-reports-share-sellers-dropping-171200418.html

Good, I hope it continues for my buyers.  I made 5 offers for one buyer in less than a week, each home had multiple offers and we were lucky enough to get one of the homes.

If Liar Loan is right and prices drop, I hope they drop 40% (I don't care if my own places drop along too).

Of course I don't believe that will happen, but a girl can dream, right?

I'm eyeing something like this one:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Corona-Del-Mar/2608-Cove-St-92625/home/3254305

It's a little 2 bedroom cracker box place on the sand in CDM.

40% off within two years gets me my basis of $830K with no mello moved.

I could come visit ya all for the summers!

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Man, that house******(box), looks really awkward wedge between those two story mansions. You gonna feel the pressure of keeping up with jones, the day you closed escrowed.
Then you got to spend another couple of mils to tear it down for a rebuild. The aerial photography really highlight the high life of this home in this particular neighborhood.

 

[sleepy5136]

Redfin Reports The Share of Sellers Dropping Their Asking Price Is Climbing Past Last Year?s Rate

Twelve percent of homes for sale had a price drop during the four weeks ending April 3, up from 9% a year earlier and the highest share since early December. The rate of sellers dropping their prices is growing faster month over month than it has since August.

"The slowdown over the last two weeks has felt significant," said Seattle-area Redfin real estate agent Dee Heyerdahl. "Usually April is when the spring homebuying and selling market begins to heat up, but this year things are cooling down a bit instead. Listings that a month ago would have had a dozen interested buyers touring in a single day now see less action than that in a whole week.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/redfin-reports-share-sellers-dropping-171200418.html

Good, I hope it continues for my buyers.  I made 5 offers for one buyer in less than a week, each home had multiple offers and we were lucky enough to get one of the homes.

If Liar Loan is right and prices drop, I hope they drop 40% (I don't care if my own places drop along too).

Of course I don't believe that will happen, but a girl can dream, right?

I'm eyeing something like this one:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Corona-Del-Mar/2608-Cove-St-92625/home/3254305

It's a little 2 bedroom cracker box place on the sand in CDM.

40% off within two years gets me my basis of $830K with no mello moved.

I could come visit ya all for the summers!

Takes one bad storm or a tsunami to wipe that home out. No thanks.

 

[Nani]

Tell her congratulations.  She is one of the smart ones selling now before conditions worsen.  My kind of girl.

P.S.  I liked your explanation about your upbringing.  It echoed the story of a lot of my family members.  Work hard and live simply until you can actually afford the thing you want to buy.  Most of my older relatives grew up working class or poor and that affects your habits for the rest of your life.  Many of the men were forced to join the military and some had to fight in Vietnam.  For some reason, giving up 2-3 years of their young lives to fight a war never gets mentioned when we talk about how easy Baby Boomers had it.

Anyway, my mom reminded me recently that when I was growing up in the 80's we still had a black & white TV.  Why not?  It still worked.  No need to buy a new one.

To be fair, anyone 'growing up' then benefited from massive money printing since 1971. Asset inflation has made the same inflation adjusted dollar go about 1/3 as far in housing for a 30 year old. In the modern era, anyone working for just salary is unlikely to make it - only way to beat 'em is to own equity in a business...then you'll at least keep up with the monetary inflation.

 

[TestingIrvine]

Tell her congratulations.  She is one of the smart ones selling now before conditions worsen.  My kind of girl.

P.S.  I liked your explanation about your upbringing.  It echoed the story of a lot of my family members.  Work hard and live simply until you can actually afford the thing you want to buy.  Most of my older relatives grew up working class or poor and that affects your habits for the rest of your life.  Many of the men were forced to join the military and some had to fight in Vietnam.  For some reason, giving up 2-3 years of their young lives to fight a war never gets mentioned when we talk about how easy Baby Boomers had it.

Anyway, my mom reminded me recently that when I was growing up in the 80's we still had a black & white TV.  Why not?  It still worked.  No need to buy a new one.

Huh?

 

[TestingIrvine]

1

 

[The Motor Court Company]

Unless her daughter traded up 

Tell her congratulations.  She is one of the smart ones selling now before conditions worsen.  My kind of girl.

P.S.  I liked your explanation about your upbringing.  It echoed the story of a lot of my family members.  Work hard and live simply until you can actually afford the thing you want to buy.  Most of my older relatives grew up working class or poor and that affects your habits for the rest of your life.  Many of the men were forced to join the military and some had to fight in Vietnam.  For some reason, giving up 2-3 years of their young lives to fight a war never gets mentioned when we talk about how easy Baby Boomers had it.

Anyway, my mom reminded me recently that when I was growing up in the 80's we still had a black & white TV.  Why not?  It still worked.  No need to buy a new one.