Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
The easy money that the FED created has undoubtedly distort vastly majority of the economy. The shortage of everything. The emergency bonds purchase program is still in existence today. 40 Billions in MBS is executed each month and still happenning. Are we still in a COVID emergency? When you have shortage, price will rise with very easy money. Everything cost more, not just homes in Irvine. Inflation is a theft.
 
Davidlee199 said:
Jumbo rates went up 0.25% in just 2weeks.  See new home prices are cut 95-100k at Palermo in Orchard Hills.
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Unless im mistaken, just went to the palermo site and prices start at 1.9 for a plan 1 and 2 and 2.17 for a plan 3...dont think they went down in price.
 
trematix said:
Davidlee199 said:
Jumbo rates went up 0.25% in just 2weeks.  See new home prices are cut 95-100k at Palermo in Orchard Hills.
Click to expand...

Unless im mistaken, just went to the palermo site and prices start at 1.9 for a plan 1 and 2 and 2.17 for a plan 3...dont think they went down in price.
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They did last week, showed like a 90K cut on Zillow, I think that's what Davidlee is referring to.  But now, it's back to the moon!
 
Chegg said:
They did last week, showed like a 90K cut on Zillow, I think that's what Davidlee is referring to.  But now, it's back to the moon!
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Zillow shows accurate pricing, but its comparisons aren't necessarily accurate since it doesn't take lot premium into consideration.
 
CalBears96 said:
Chegg said:
They did last week, showed like a 90K cut on Zillow, I think that's what Davidlee is referring to.  But now, it's back to the moon!
Click to expand...

Zillow shows accurate pricing, but its comparisons aren't necessarily accurate since it doesn't take lot premium into consideration.
Click to expand...

Or interior upgrades and condition of a home. 
 
This guy on reddit talks about zillow and their messed up algos.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/qaboqa/zillow_pauses_home_purchases_as_snags_hit/hh3isxv/?context=3


[font=verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif]I sold a house to Zillow offers that they also lost money on. Originally they had made me an offer that I thought was pretty fair but it turns out they would have made a lot of money on. But they had also just purchased and listed my direct next door neighbors house. And we had identical floor plans so I knew it was basically the perfect comp. Once I saw how much they were listing that house for (~75k more than my offer) I told them I was going to cancel unless we renegotiated.[/font]

[font=verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif]After saying no to their new offers twice they randomly increased the offer all the way up over the list price of the other house and we accepted. All and all they raised their offer to me by nearly 90k.[/font]

[font=verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif]After cleaning the house (which it didn?t even need because we cleaned it like crazy) they listed it for nearly 100k more than they paid me. So ~190k over my original offer made just weeks before. This was a hot market in Northern California near Sacramento so I guess they got super greedy and thought they could get away with it.[/font]

[font=verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif]After sitting on the market for a few weeks they dropped the price. A few weeks later they dropped again, and again, and again, all the way back to what they paid me. They eventually sold for a slight loss. The whole situation was very interesting to watch.[/font]

[font=verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif]One major take away that I saw was the fact that they clearly manipulate Zestimates to align with their own needs. When I was first considering selling to them they gave me a final offer based on the ?value? and the new Zestimate matched it. Once we renegotiated just a few weeks later the new Zestimate mysteriously increased again to exactly match. When they were ready to list my house just a couple weeks after that they increased the Zestimate over 100k in a single day to just over the new list price. This was way more than other houses in the neighborhood were appraised at and was completely indefensible. Then as they lowered the price multiple times the Zestimate always moved in sync to consistently be just slightly over their price. I watched this happen several times. It was extremely obvious that the Zestimate was just pure bullshit.[/font]

[font=verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif]If an algorithm was making the calls in terms of value I would expect all the same houses in my neighborhood to rise and fall in a similar way (they are literally identical floor plans). And that?s what historically had happened. But once Zillow was the seller the Zestimate for my old house exploded in value and all the identical houses in my neighborhood didn?t budge.[/font]
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Always makes me laugh when you see a house listed by redfin and it says "hot home." Oh yeah I trust that

But if Zillow bought from this guy and resold for about the same price they made money. People keep ignoring the fees.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
CalBears96 said:
Chegg said:
They did last week, showed like a 90K cut on Zillow, I think that's what Davidlee is referring to.  But now, it's back to the moon!
Click to expand...

Zillow shows accurate pricing, but its comparisons aren't necessarily accurate since it doesn't take lot premium into consideration.
Click to expand...

Or interior upgrades and condition of a home.
Click to expand...

I meant comparison between phase releases on new construction.  :)
 
fatduck said:
Always makes me laugh when you see a house listed by redfin and it says "hot home." Oh yeah I trust that

But if Zillow bought from this guy and resold for about the same price they made money. People keep ignoring the fees.
Click to expand...

Yup, Zillow's fee is like 8%.
 
I keep telling people, all those price estimates on Redfin and Zillow are worthless and now we know they manipulate them for their own iBuying benefit. 
 
The other manipulations comes in the form of scarcity. If there isn't enough of something, prices exploded.

Purposely holding low inventory is a classic controlling the free market. Looks at what the FED is doing, how about the banks holding on the foreclosures and not showing on listing. The FED "transitory", is making a lot less sense. The FED mandate 2%, is like its legalize inflation tax, which is a theft of people hard earn money.

The unfortunate reality is that whenever money is at stake there will be those who try to game the system for their own means, whether legally or illegally.

 
Yes, they can manipulate zestimates, but when they make an offer to buy from you, they wouldn?t just make a $1m home into zestimating $800k or something. The price range would be a reasonable ballpark, don?t you think? The benefit of selling to Zillow would be for someone who wants to quickly sell it without doing all those staging, open house, etc. Just take an offer and be done with it less than 2 week. If your looking for maximum ROI, then yeah just go through traditional style.
 
Compressed-Village said:
The other manipulations comes in the form of scarcity. If there isn't enough of something, prices exploded.

Purposely holding low inventory is a classic controlling the free market. Looks at what the FED is doing, how about the banks holding on the foreclosures and not showing on listing. The FED "transitory", is making a lot less sense. The FED mandate 2%, is like its legalize inflation tax, which is a theft of people hard earn money.

The unfortunate reality is that whenever money is at stake there will be those who try to game the system for their own means, whether legally or illegally.
Click to expand...
zero inflation would result in higher unemployment rate and lower GDP.  there's no free lunch.
 
fatduck said:
Compressed-Village said:
The other manipulations comes in the form of scarcity. If there isn't enough of something, prices exploded.

Purposely holding low inventory is a classic controlling the free market. Looks at what the FED is doing, how about the banks holding on the foreclosures and not showing on listing. The FED "transitory", is making a lot less sense. The FED mandate 2%, is like its legalize inflation tax, which is a theft of people hard earn money.

The unfortunate reality is that whenever money is at stake there will be those who try to game the system for their own means, whether legally or illegally.
Click to expand...
zero inflation would result in higher unemployment rate and lower GDP.  there's no free lunch.
Click to expand...

Speaking of GDP,
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

It really is concerning charts. GDP is in real time and from the FED it?s self.

It?s is higher tax, higher inflation, much lower growth. To give money on one hand and pick pocket you on another isn?t free. Inflation is a hidden tax, on top of other taxes.

 
Compressed-Village said:
fatduck said:
Compressed-Village said:
The other manipulations comes in the form of scarcity. If there isn't enough of something, prices exploded.

Purposely holding low inventory is a classic controlling the free market. Looks at what the FED is doing, how about the banks holding on the foreclosures and not showing on listing. The FED "transitory", is making a lot less sense. The FED mandate 2%, is like its legalize inflation tax, which is a theft of people hard earn money.

The unfortunate reality is that whenever money is at stake there will be those who try to game the system for their own means, whether legally or illegally.
Click to expand...
zero inflation would result in higher unemployment rate and lower GDP.  there's no free lunch.
Click to expand...

Speaking of GDP,
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

It really is concerning charts. GDP is in real time and from the FED it?s self.

It?s is higher tax, higher inflation, much lower growth. To give money on one hand and pick pocket you on another isn?t free. Inflation is a hidden tax, on top of other taxes.
Click to expand...
zero inflation is worse because downward nominal wage rigidity is extremely strong in the US.  cutting (nominal) salaries is basically a death sentence for a company.  but without inflation, companies have no other option in downturns. 

inflation caused by natural growth in money supply is also positively correlated with gdp growth.

but there's a misconception that the fed somehow causes inflation by "printing money."  that's not how it works, at least not until the fed starts literally dropping stacks of cash from helicopters.  the only mechanism the fed has to increase the money supply is thru bank lending (indirectly, by influencing bank reserves), which is dependent on borrower demand.
 
Mety said:
Yes, they can manipulate zestimates, but when they make an offer to buy from you, they wouldn?t just make a $1m home into zestimating $800k or something. The price range would be a reasonable ballpark, don?t you think? The benefit of selling to Zillow would be for someone who wants to quickly sell it without doing all those staging, open house, etc. Just take an offer and be done with it less than 2 week. If your looking for maximum ROI, then yeah just go through traditional style.
Click to expand...

There are also some people who need to sell the current home quickly in order to close the new home, so the quickest way is through Zillow.
 
CalBears96 said:
Mety said:
Yes, they can manipulate zestimates, but when they make an offer to buy from you, they wouldn?t just make a $1m home into zestimating $800k or something. The price range would be a reasonable ballpark, don?t you think? The benefit of selling to Zillow would be for someone who wants to quickly sell it without doing all those staging, open house, etc. Just take an offer and be done with it less than 2 week. If your looking for maximum ROI, then yeah just go through traditional style.
Click to expand...

There are also some people who need to sell the current home quickly in order to close the new home, so the quickest way is through Zillow.
Click to expand...

Yes, this is the primary selling point of these services. 

When I sold my last home, I got quotes or attempted to get quotes from all the iBuyers - Zillow, Redfin, Open Door, Owning, and also a private home flipper - just to see how the quotes would compare.  I had an amount in mind that I would be willing to sell for if it meant avoiding staging and marketing the home (I have four kids, so keeping things looking perfect all the time is near impossible).

Redfin ended up offering me the most, and it was almost enough to make me pull the trigger, but I instead opted for a traditional listing to net the most money after fees.  I was able to close on our new house before selling the old, something I wasn't positive mortgage underwriting would allow me to do, and I was able to sell the old house before the first payment came due on the new house.

For people that need the certainty of selling their existing home first, iBuying is a nice service, but it comes with a high price.  At the end of the day, losing tens of thousands in net proceeds was not worth the added convenience for me.
 
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