Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market?

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aquabliss said:
Yikes, that Active Listings chart!  I wonder how far back you have to go to find <300 available listings (if ever). 

It's never been that low going back to 2008, the lowest point of inventory before now was back in March 2013 with 325 homes on the market when the market was on fire (we saw 20%+ price appreciation from late 2012 to late 2013). 
 
Compressed-Village said:
Ha ha, I like your thoughts. Good reportings here USC.

That random OC Blogger, claims that I am too emotionally involve in Irvine housing. These charts making me hurts so good. The pains I am feeling never felt better..  :). Of course, next year, he'll be back to drop a line or two of the same shits.

You gotta love those trolls though, because without naysayers, it ain't fun.

And prices are going higher from here based upon what I'm seeing.  You don't need MLS access to see what I'm seeing, go look on Redfin and see how many active listings there are in Irvine today.  Until inventory increases materially, prices will continue to move higher.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
According to our resident Irvine doubter... OC is doing better than Irvine... is that true?

As a matter of fact it is:  Page 9 ~http://ochousingnews.com/wp-content...rvine-October-2021-Market-Report-OCHN-New.pdf

Irvine is lagging Orange County, Anaheim, Santa Ana, Stanton, Huntington Beach, Garden Grove, Orange, and Fountain Valley.  (There isn't comparison data for any other cities.)

I know everybody will come up with excuses in Irvine's defense, but remember it was supposed to be this special place that crashes last, crashes least, and recovers first.  That hasn't been the case this cycle.
 
Page 8 of 35 of PDF shows Irvine increased less %-wise year over year (3-4% less), but the median home price in Irvine is much higher.

You?re taking one data set instead of combining multiple data sets. Stanton is mid $600K median home price.  Even if Stanton rose 3% more than Irvine it?s meaningless.
 
Liar Loan said:
irvinehomeowner said:
According to our resident Irvine doubter... OC is doing better than Irvine... is that true?

As a matter of fact it is:  Page 9 ~http://ochousingnews.com/wp-content...rvine-October-2021-Market-Report-OCHN-New.pdf

Irvine is lagging Orange County, Anaheim, Santa Ana, Stanton, Huntington Beach, Garden Grove, Orange, and Fountain Valley.  (There isn't comparison data for any other cities.)

I know everybody will come up with excuses in Irvine's defense, but remember it was supposed to be this special place that crashes last, crashes least, and recovers first.  That hasn't been the case this cycle.

So you went from crashes hard in Irvine over 40% is what you wrote and suggesting owners to sell even as far back as a year ago, to now saying it lag other city in percentage increase? Nice comparison bro, try to buy a home now and see if you can afford it.

This shred any credibility you have. I don't rely on any charts, I see it, live it and breath it everyday. And look at over sea Chinese buyers are not pouring in money and hey its up more than eva....What do you say to that? Man, we don't hate where you live, why you hate where we live?
 
Most people who are wrong don't come back.
You should thank LL for staying and taking the heat...

I'm ok that he warped his forecasts so much that now he is right in his own mind.

There's no way he's touching my miss cleo crown.
 
zubs said:
Most people who are wrong don't come back.
You should thank LL for staying and taking the heat...

I'm ok that he warped his forecasts so much that now he is right in his own mind.

There's no way he's touching my miss cleo crown.


You right, we are suppose to be supportive and forgiving, even when spat upon. Fear mongering, and hyperbole from LiarLoans.

OK Liars, lets see what other things can you prove us wrong.

I have the ability to entertaining opposing ideas, but I would not buy in Anaheim, Santa Ana, Stanton, Huntington Beach, Garden Grove, Orange, and Fountain Valley simply because the total percentage rate of increase is higher than Irvine.

If that is the only reason for you to buy any city vs Irvine, then by all mean there is hell lot of other cheaper more affordable places that you can buy beside those listed.

 
I think the demand may go down if prices remain high and Fed decides to raise rates sooner to combat inflation. Rates are currently expected to raise mid to late next year. If rates go to 3.5-4%, I would think we see some decrease in demand which may cause homes to sit on market longer than now.
 
Liar Loan said:
irvinehomeowner said:
According to our resident Irvine doubter... OC is doing better than Irvine... is that true?

As a matter of fact it is:  Page 9 ~http://ochousingnews.com/wp-content...rvine-October-2021-Market-Report-OCHN-New.pdf

Irvine is lagging Orange County, Anaheim, Santa Ana, Stanton, Huntington Beach, Garden Grove, Orange, and Fountain Valley.  (There isn't comparison data for any other cities.)

I know everybody will come up with excuses in Irvine's defense, but remember it was supposed to be this special place that crashes last, crashes least, and recovers first.  That hasn't been the case this cycle.

One thing that Irvine has against it is the law of large numbers.  Sure, some lower cost OC cities may show a higher % gain than Irvine but in absolute dollars Irvine is performing at the top of the list of cities in OC.  The competition in Irvine is brutal, pretty much every home that I make an offer on gets 5-20+ offers (I don't see as many offers on homes outside of Irvine). 
 
TestingIrvine said:
Page 8 of 35 of PDF shows Irvine increased less %-wise year over year (3-4% less), but the median home price in Irvine is much higher.

You?re taking one data set instead of combining multiple data sets. Stanton is mid $600K median home price.  Even if Stanton rose 3% more than Irvine it?s meaningless.

Huntington Beach and Fountain Valley are similarly priced and still exceed Irvine by 3-4%.  D'oh!

Compressed-Village said:
So you went from crashes hard in Irvine over 40% is what you wrote and suggesting owners to sell even as far back as a year ago, to now saying it lag other city in percentage increase? Nice comparison bro, try to buy a home now and see if you can afford it.

This shred any credibility you have. I don't rely on any charts, I see it, live it and breath it everyday. And look at over sea Chinese buyers are not pouring in money and hey its up more than eva....What do you say to that? Man, we don't hate where you live, why you hate where we live?

Even USC's chart shows you are wrong and he lives and breathes Irvine real estate more than you do.  Irvine was in a 3-year decline and funk until the Covid QE began.  Easy money is the only thing keeping you alive, and even with that injection of housing meth, Irvine is barely hanging on.  It still trails all the other cities listed AND none of them have Chinese buyers either!

zubs said:
There's no way he's touching my miss cleo crown.

Miss Cleo was a genius and I don't claim to be as smart as her.  Years ago I had a roommate that called Miss Cleo and ran our phone bill up by $240 (in early 2000's money).  It was pure stupidity of her to call, but once she was on the call, Miss Cleo found a way to keep her talking and not hanging up for as long as possible.  Now multiply that scam by tens of thousands of calls and Miss Cleo was making some serious bank!

Compressed-Village said:
I have the ability to entertaining opposing ideas, but I would not buy in Anaheim, Santa Ana, Stanton, Huntington Beach, Garden Grove, Orange, and Fountain Valley simply because the total percentage rate of increase is higher than Irvine.

If that is the only reason for you to buy any city vs Irvine, then by all mean there is hell lot of other cheaper more affordable places that you can buy beside those listed.

Irvine is losing to all those other cities you look down on.  How sad is that?

USCTrojanCPA said:
One thing that Irvine has against it is the law of large numbers.  Sure, some lower cost OC cities may show a higher % gain than Irvine but in absolute dollars Irvine is performing at the top of the list of cities in OC.  The competition in Irvine is brutal, pretty much every home that I make an offer on gets 5-20+ offers (I don't see as many offers on homes outside of Irvine). 

Yes, and Huntington Beach & Fountain Valley also have this same problem but have found a way to outperform Irvine by 3-4%. Haha... 

Number of offers is simply anecdotal and will highly depend on your listing strategy, as all sellers of real estate know.  What matters for determining the strength of a market is number of sales and purchase price.
 
"Yes, and Huntington Beach & Fountain Valley also have this same problem but have found a way to outperform Irvine by 3-4%. Haha... 

Number of offers is simply anecdotal and will highly depend on your listing strategy, as all sellers of real estate know.  What matters for determining the strength of a market is number of sales and purchase price."

My mom's house was in FV. When she died I wanted to keep her completely paid off, no HOA, $700 per YEAR property taxes but was outvoted by my sisters so it was sold. I watch that area alot and having lived there know about the area.

The homes are old. (My moms was one of the first neighborhoods and is now 57 years old). The houses in her neighborhood were solidly built and many of them have been redone (removing one wall between the kitchen and dining room gives you a new big open kitchen, new appliances, granite counters and nook instead of the old kitchen with separate dining room). The bedrooms are good sized. Easy to build up OR extend the home as the lots are big enough to add onto. In fact most of the older homes are over 7200 sq feet single story homes. 7200 sq feet is the minimum the city requires for granny flats (even before recent legislation).

Old people want single stories. This area has plenty of them. No HOA, No Mello. Decent schools. Near the 405.

You can buy in Westminster or Anaheim but the lots are smaller, harder to add onto and the schools are not as good.

That is why FV homes remain desirable. It's the lower overall monthly $$$.



 
Liar Loan said:
TestingIrvine said:
Page 8 of 35 of PDF shows Irvine increased less %-wise year over year (3-4% less), but the median home price in Irvine is much higher.

You?re taking one data set instead of combining multiple data sets. Stanton is mid $600K median home price.  Even if Stanton rose 3% more than Irvine it?s meaningless.

Huntington Beach and Fountain Valley are similarly priced and still exceed Irvine by 3-4%.  D'oh!

Compressed-Village said:
So you went from crashes hard in Irvine over 40% is what you wrote and suggesting owners to sell even as far back as a year ago, to now saying it lag other city in percentage increase? Nice comparison bro, try to buy a home now and see if you can afford it.

This shred any credibility you have. I don't rely on any charts, I see it, live it and breath it everyday. And look at over sea Chinese buyers are not pouring in money and hey its up more than eva....What do you say to that? Man, we don't hate where you live, why you hate where we live?

Even USC's chart shows you are wrong and he lives and breathes Irvine real estate more than you do.  Irvine was in a 3-year decline and funk until the Covid QE began.  Easy money is the only thing keeping you alive, and even with that injection of housing meth, Irvine is barely hanging on.  It still trails all the other cities listed AND none of them have Chinese buyers either!

zubs said:
There's no way he's touching my miss cleo crown.

Miss Cleo was a genius and I don't claim to be as smart as her.  Years ago I had a roommate that called Miss Cleo and ran our phone bill up by $240 (in early 2000's money).  It was pure stupidity of her to call, but once she was on the call, Miss Cleo found a way to keep her talking and not hanging up for as long as possible.  Now multiply that scam by tens of thousands of calls and Miss Cleo was making some serious bank!

Compressed-Village said:
I have the ability to entertaining opposing ideas, but I would not buy in Anaheim, Santa Ana, Stanton, Huntington Beach, Garden Grove, Orange, and Fountain Valley simply because the total percentage rate of increase is higher than Irvine.

If that is the only reason for you to buy any city vs Irvine, then by all mean there is hell lot of other cheaper more affordable places that you can buy beside those listed.

Irvine is losing to all those other cities you look down on.  How sad is that?

USCTrojanCPA said:
One thing that Irvine has against it is the law of large numbers.  Sure, some lower cost OC cities may show a higher % gain than Irvine but in absolute dollars Irvine is performing at the top of the list of cities in OC.  The competition in Irvine is brutal, pretty much every home that I make an offer on gets 5-20+ offers (I don't see as many offers on homes outside of Irvine). 

Yes, and Huntington Beach & Fountain Valley also have this same problem but have found a way to outperform Irvine by 3-4%. Haha... 

Number of offers is simply anecdotal and will highly depend on your listing strategy, as all sellers of real estate know.  What matters for determining the strength of a market is number of sales and purchase price.

One thing that I do tell my Irvine buyers is that if Irvine had no new home inventory (call it today's shadow inventory because those homes never hits the MLS for the most part), prices would be have been up another 5-10%.  Irvine builders are selling their homes as soon as they release them.  I've mentioned it before, Covid pushed up the demand for larger lot SFR homes more than any other type of property and you typically see those types of homes in areas outside of Irvine.  R2D also made a great point that these old OC communities have many more single story homes as a % than Irvine because no single story homes are being built in Irvine today which is also increasing in demand as the population continues to age. 
 
I went to an open house for a single story SFR in Laguna Niguel, was the only person there under 70, and it went for almost $700/sqft
 
fatduck said:
I went to an open house for a single story SFR in Laguna Niguel, was the only person there under 70, and it went for almost $700/sqft

Single story homes typically sell for a 20-25%+ higher price per square foot than 2-level homes.  Those older buyers that you saw are mostly cash buyers as well.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
fatduck said:
I went to an open house for a single story SFR in Laguna Niguel, was the only person there under 70, and it went for almost $700/sqft

Single story homes typically sell for a 20-25%+ higher price per square foot than 2-level homes.  Those older buyers that you saw are mostly cash buyers as well.
Also the interior was designed by Caesar Augustus

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Laguna-Niguel/28376-Via-Alfonse-92677/home/4930135?utm_source=android_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&2010988919=variant&813945303=variant
 
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