Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market?

[usctrojancpa]

It's that time again...to post up some data with the attached excel file and analysis on what happened in the previous month.  Sales came in at 139 homes in the month of February 2019 or 14% higher than January 2019 but a whopping 16% lower than February 2018.  The medium price per SF from a year-over-year basis decreased by 1.3% for the first time January 2015.  Keep in mind that the February closings were for the most part escrows that opened in December and January right before interest rates started dropping.  The number of active listings increased by 54 homes from the end of January to the end of February but increased by a whopping 359 homes from the end of February 2018 (I added 2 additional columns in my file to show the YOY change and % change in the inventory level at the end of each month).  This increase in inventory caused the # of months of inventory to increase to 5.11 months using a 3-month trailing average.  This would put the Irvine market as a weak buyer's market, but when you dig a little deeper the big factor driving this increase is the every increasing supply of higher end homes ($1m+, especially over $1.5m).  If you were to look at just the homes under $1m, the months of inventory of homes is between 3-4 months which is a neutral market. 

As I mentioned last month, I had a handful of lower end buyers come off the sidelines in Jan/Feb (sub $800k buyers) because of the material drop in rates and softer prices.  I got most of them buyers into escrow into escrow in a short period of time as there were enough good inventory of homes to look at but I did encounter multiple offers situations on 3 of the homes that I made offers on in Irvine (again, sub $800k homes).  We were a bit surprised that these homes were getting multiples even though they were prices fairly reasonably.  I also noticed that the showing traffic at my Nectarine listing in Columbus Grove was also fairly sold and that's why were we able to get into escrow within a few weeks.  My take is that there were many other buyers in the low end of the market that came off the sidelines during the same time mine did.  However, the fact remains that if a home is overpriced and/or doesn't show well (whether it's a lower end home or not) it will sit on the market. 

From an interest rate perspective, interest rates continued to bleed lower in February with some lenders offering a 30-year rate at 3.875% and a 7-year ARM rate at 3.25%. The weaker than expected Jobs numbers released on March 11th might have pushed rates down even a bit lower.  I believe that rates coming down is putting somewhat of a floor on the lower end home prices as affordability for buyers who are sensitive to interest rates and monthly payments.  It'll be curious to see how much lower rates can go, but the lower they go the more lower end buyers will be apt to look to buy a home given that the job market is still very strong.

This is awesome! Is there a way to break this down further? I haven?t seen much sfr for sale in woodbridge. At present I think there are only 4-5 for sale 1-1.25mil and 1 house under a 1.0m. That seems like very little? Also 7 homes above 1.3.

I can put together some rough current data for specific villages/property types upon request.  I'll see if I can pull up historical data by village by property type tomorrow as MLS is down for maintenance right now.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So chart #3 (Closed Sales) is similar to what I see on Trulia and that's why I asked if this current slowdown is seasonal.

To clarify, what I meant was if it's within the the normal cycle of the lows/highs that real estate goes through every year. I understand that this year's data shows that volume/sales are different from previous years but if it rebounds back to where it was, even if 5-10% lower, then to me, that's is just a correction and still falls within seasonal parameters. I can go back every year and say "it's not seasonal" because the numbers are not the same YOY but that's not that I am talking about, I'm referring to the pattern that real estate takes on even when in a "real" slowdown. If you look at 2008-2013, there was still the same seasonal ups/downs occurring even though prices/volume were different each year.

Maybe I should be using the term "cyclical" but when I say seasonal I'm talking about the general movement of real estate every year from spring to winter. And again, maybe this year it's different, but we won't know for sure until we go through the year. I guess for me to think it's not seasonal is if the prices/volume continue to go down even through the spring/summer.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Another interesting note - Since when was the $700k buyer considered a lower end buyer? Well maybe it is in Irvine.  ;D

Seems like $700k can't even get you a proper detached SFR in Irvine. It's really crazy... I'm glad I'm not just starting my family/career in Irvine today... we couldn't afford it.

 

[moc]

Another interesting note - Since when was the $700k buyer considered a lower end buyer? Well maybe it is in Irvine.  ;D

Seems like $700k can't even get you a proper detached SFR in Irvine. It's really crazy... I'm glad I'm not just starting my family/career in Irvine today... we couldn't afford it.

$700k is our sweet spot - we haven't found anything detached in Irvine and there's very little that's a 3 bedroom.

Fortunately we are those crazy young people who are willing to live in 3 level town homes, which is basically the only thing we can afford in Irvine.

Here's a quick screen grab of 700k 3 bedrooms and 700k 2 bedrooms from zillow to give you an idea of how limited it is.

 

[meccos12]

So chart #3 (Closed Sales) is similar to what I see on Trulia and that's why I asked if this current slowdown is seasonal.

To clarify, what I meant was if it's within the the normal cycle of the lows/highs that real estate goes through every year. I understand that this year's data shows that volume/sales are different from previous years but if it rebounds back to where it was, even if 5-10% lower, then to me, that's is just a correction and still falls within seasonal parameters. I can go back every year and say "it's not seasonal" because the numbers are not the same YOY but that's not that I am talking about, I'm referring to the pattern that real estate takes on even when in a "real" slowdown. If you look at 2008-2013, there was still the same seasonal ups/downs occurring even though prices/volume were different each year.

Maybe I should be using the term "cyclical" but when I say seasonal I'm talking about the general movement of real estate every year from spring to winter. And again, maybe this year it's different, but we won't know for sure until we go through the year. I guess for me to think it's not seasonal is if the prices/volume continue to go down even through the spring/summer.

You and I have long conversations about whether this is seasonal or not.  From the beginning you have implied this slowdown is seasonal, yet when you are called out on it, you state you are just "asking" whether its seasonal or not.  Now you are back here implying its seasonal again?  You would have much more respect if you would simply make a claim and stand by it instead of being so wishy-washy. 

You point to chart #3 from 2008 to 2013 to point out that this is seasonal, yet this very chart shows that its not just seasonality.  Yes there are seasonal variations, which are the peaks and troughs you see each year, however there is a general trend where you see higher peaks and higher troughs.  At the end of this chart you can now start to see a general trend down with lower peaks and lower troughs.  This should along with the data that USC/eye/myself have provided for you should be clear enough to say this is not just seasonal variation.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So chart #3 (Closed Sales) is similar to what I see on Trulia and that's why I asked if this current slowdown is seasonal.

To clarify, what I meant was if it's within the the normal cycle of the lows/highs that real estate goes through every year. I understand that this year's data shows that volume/sales are different from previous years but if it rebounds back to where it was, even if 5-10% lower, then to me, that's is just a correction and still falls within seasonal parameters. I can go back every year and say "it's not seasonal" because the numbers are not the same YOY but that's not that I am talking about, I'm referring to the pattern that real estate takes on even when in a "real" slowdown. If you look at 2008-2013, there was still the same seasonal ups/downs occurring even though prices/volume were different each year.

Maybe I should be using the term "cyclical" but when I say seasonal I'm talking about the general movement of real estate every year from spring to winter. And again, maybe this year it's different, but we won't know for sure until we go through the year. I guess for me to think it's not seasonal is if the prices/volume continue to go down even through the spring/summer.

You and I have long conversations about whether this is seasonal or not.  From the beginning you have implied this slowdown is seasonal, yet when you are called out on it, you state you are just "asking" whether its seasonal or not.  Now you are back here implying its seasonal again?  You would have much more respect if you would simply make a claim and stand by it instead of being so wishy-washy. 

You point to chart #3 from 2008 to 2013 to point out that this is seasonal, yet this very chart shows that its not just seasonality.  Yes there are seasonal variations, which are the peaks and troughs you see each year, however there is a general trend where you see higher peaks and higher troughs.  At the end of this chart you can now start to see a general trend down with lower peaks and lower troughs.  This should along with the data that USC/eye/myself have provided for you should be clear enough to say this is not just seasonal variation.

You should read my post instead of trying to disprove my credibility.

You still don?t get that we are not talking about the exact same thing.

And why do you think I?m concerned about your respect? I?d settle for some perspective.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Let me try again:

To me, every season homes ebb/flow. Granted, each season the peaks and troughs may be higher or lower but they usually occur around the same time frame. That?s is what I?m referring to as seasonal. If you?re going to call a slowdown in fall and then a rise in spring, that?s not new news.

Now, if you are going to say it?s lower than normal or longer than normal, then that?s of importance. However, whenever I ask that, I don?t get a definitive answer. The ones I do get range from 5%-15% down which if you look at the chart is within tolerance for the past 5 years.

So that?s why I say I can?t know until this ?season? is over. You can say the data shows otherwise but that?s why I?ve said in the past, data has been wrong (including Steve Thomas). You have to look at other things than just numbers. This is esp true for Irvine. That?s why USC?s posts are good, because it mixes data with experience.

Does that make more sense?

 

[meccos12]

Now, if you are going to say it?s lower than normal or longer than normal, then that?s of importance. However, whenever I ask that, I don?t get a definitive answer.

Really?  How many charts or data points have I posted on these threads that showed exactly what you claimed I havent done?  This probably is the biggest BS you have posted yet.  Anyone could clearly go back to the other threads and easily see for themselves.  The fact that data showed things were not normal from recent history is the exact reason why some of us made the call that housing was slowing down, and this was clearly explained in previous posts. 

I think when one is this delusional or a prevaricator, its pointless to have any discussion. 

Keep questioning whether this is seasonal or not.  By the time you figure it out, you probably will have completely missed this slowdown. 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Now, if you are going to say it?s lower than normal or longer than normal, then that?s of importance. However, whenever I ask that, I don?t get a definitive answer.

Really?  How many charts or data points have I posted on these threads that showed exactly what you claimed I havent done?  This probably is the biggest BS you have posted yet.  Anyone could clearly go back to the other threads and easily see for themselves.  The fact that data showed things were not normal from recent history is the exact reason why some of us made the call that housing was slowing down, and this was clearly explained in previous posts. 

I think when one is this delusional or a prevaricator, its pointless to have any discussion. 

Keep questioning whether this is seasonal or not.  By the time you figure it out, you probably will have completely missed this slowdown. 

I think you are not reading my posts, you always want to fight and not just discuss. Maybe it will help if you realize that my posts are not just directed at *you*. What I asked was not just the data you provided, but also the analysis of that data. I asked what does this data point to? How low will prices go and how long?

Luckily, you don't delete posts like BTB so this is what I'm referencing about not getting a definite answer on prices (which you are calling BS):

It seems you agree that you can?t predict real estate so no one can come up with an exact percentage or length of time, so why are you pressing me so hard on a definitive stance on seasonality? Is ?I?m not sure? not a good enough answer? You think it isn?t seasonal, that?s fine... I?m still on the fence because as I?ve said multiple times, seasonality is the default.

Predicting future prices is futile, which is why I dont understand your obsession for asking people to predict future price drops.  However predicting future prices is completely different from evaluating current data, which is all I have been doing.

I press you for that answer because on multiple occasions you implied seasonality yet you wont admit it.  You say you are not sure now, but you have been implying that this is seasonal on numerous occasions to counter my points. 

I never claimed *you* didn't provide data. I even said that the data you have provided does show this is different... what I "claimed" was that others never gave me a definite answer of what percentage price drop and how long... you even said yourself that's a better question. But the answer I usually get (and not just from *you*) is "we can't predict exactly" or "we are not sure how long it will last"... how is that different from me saying "I can't know if this falls outside the realm of seasonality until we get passed this next summer"?

I'll repost this since you can't seem to understand. It even has a prediction from *you* and my question about it:

The question I had was how is it not seasonal because that's what happens every year. So you and a few others say it's not, but I've heard that before. How many times has it been predicted that this is the time that Irvine housing will drop and then it just picks back up. I remember that was being said in 2015 and prices did drop over 10% (based on Trulia) but they went back up again.

Again, the default is prices go down every year and then go back up. Now, if the prices don't go back up... then yes, it's not seasonal, but I'm not sure how that is a measurement of my credibility. People can be wrong, look at Steve Thomas, he's been off a number of times yet you keep citing him as a credible source of data and according to eyephone, anyone in the business has their own agenda so really can't be trusted of which Steve Thomas qualifies for.

And again, I've never asked for an exact percentage, a ballpark is good enough. Why? Because... history shows that within a certain margin, prices do down and back up, so if any prediction falls within that percentage, how is that different from previous cycles?

You even said it yourself:

My predictions:
in 1 year: I expect 5% drop.  in 5 years I expect 10% drop, only because its on the way up from a 15-20% drop between years 1-5. 

So if housing prices drop only 5% this time and go back up, that's within the margin of seasonal drops (at least by recent history). However, if prices drop more than 10%, say like 15-20% like you predicted, and remain that way for an extended period of time, than I do agree it's beyond seasonal.

But we can't know that until the end of the next selling season.

So in 1 year you expect a 5% drop? Is that really a "slowdown"? Again, maybe we should define "slowdown" as there seems to be some misunderstanding about that term and the term "seasonal".  You also say that prices should drop 20% within a 5 year time frame... and that's where I agreed with you, if they drop that far for an extended period of time, that's outside of the seasonal parameters (in my mind). But, most are not making a 20% price drop prediction.

And if prices stay within a 10-15% margin, how is that any different from the previous 5 years?

Please just answer the question rather than trying to argue how delusional you think I am.

 

[irvineband]

USCT were you able to pull WB data? I?m not seeing much of any SFR under 1.25, maybe 1 house. I was just curious what the data showed. Maybe inventory is up in other parts of Irvine.

 

[Kenkoko]

USCT were you able to pull WB data? I?m not seeing much of any SFR under 1.25, maybe 1 house. I was just curious what the data showed. Maybe inventory is up in other parts of Irvine.

There's quite a few SFR under 1.25 in WB. Quick scan on redfin showed at least 5https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/2-Cedarspring-92604/home/4690847https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/15-Marsh-Hawk-92604/home/4691162https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/3-Fallbrook-92604/home/4690012https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/15-Autumn-Oak-92604/home/4689941

 

[irvineband]

USCT were you able to pull WB data? I?m not seeing much of any SFR under 1.25, maybe 1 house. I was just curious what the data showed. Maybe inventory is up in other parts of Irvine.

There's quite a few SFR under 1.25 in WB. Quick scan on redfin showed at least 5https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/2-Cedarspring-92604/home/4690847https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/15-Marsh-Hawk-92604/home/4691162https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/3-Fallbrook-92604/home/4690012https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/15-Autumn-Oak-92604/home/4689941

These I?ve seen. Sorry I meant 1.2. First one is a 3bd priced out of the 3bd range. Second one backs to a main road so its probably overpriced by at least 65k. Close to main road is fine but backing straight up it not what I want. 3rd one I?m not sure what the issue is but its out of my range. 4th I cant explain but with only 3 pics available it must be missing plumbing or something. The last two have also been sitting for awhile. I want some new inventory.

This one seems alright though:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Bloomdale-92614/home/4696191?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link

This one I love the price but its just 2nd and zero yard.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/21-Racing-Wind-92614/home/4695413?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link

 

[Mety]

So in 1 year you expect a 5% drop? Is that really a "slowdown"? Again, maybe we should define "slowdown" as there seems to be some misunderstanding about that term and the term "seasonal".  You also say that prices should drop 20% within a 5 year time frame... and that's where I agreed with you, if they drop that far for an extended period of time, that's outside of the seasonal parameters (in my mind). But, most are not making a 20% price drop prediction.

And if prices stay within a 10-15% margin, how is that any different from the previous 5 years?

Please just answer the question rather than trying to argue how delusional you think I am.

May I call 20% drop? Ok, maybe more like 10-15% for Irvine.

Even 15% will be so much discount IMO. I mean $1m home will be $850k and $850k will be $722k. That's pretty huge, don't you think?

Many experts seem to make a call it will be flat to a little bit of down so I'm just going a bit more wild.

 

[usctrojancpa]

USCT were you able to pull WB data? I?m not seeing much of any SFR under 1.25, maybe 1 house. I was just curious what the data showed. Maybe inventory is up in other parts of Irvine.

I currently see 5 homes that are 4+ bedroom at and under $1.25m in Woodbridge (7 more over $1.25m).  In the past 6 months, there have been 7 homes that are 4+ bedroom that sold for $1.25m or less.  It doesn't seem that Woodbridge has "a lot" of SFRs up to $1.25m.  As I mentioned, the market from $800k to $1.25m is still moving (just not as fast the sub $1m market).  I'd say in general that the sub $800k market is neutral, the $800k to $1.25m a weak buyer's market, and over $1.25m is a buyer's market.  Today, over 40% inventory of homes on the market for sale in Irvine are newer homes (either new homes from the builder or ones built after 2012). 

 

[Kenkoko]

This one seems alright though:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Bloomdale-92614/home/4696191?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link

This one looks nice. But the price is definitely too high. Looks like the seller is still looking for early 2018 prices. Look at this WB home that recently closed
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/145-W-Yale-Loop-92604/unit-1/home/5462921

Oct 2018 list price 1.15 mil
Feb 2019 sold price 876k.

Whooping 25% off the original list price.

If you are very firm on WB and SFR you could be waiting for awhile. WB resales are mostly condos.

 

[irvineband]

This one seems alright though:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Bloomda

le-92614/home/4696191?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link

.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/145-W-Yale-Loop-92604/unit-1/home/5462921

Oct 2018 list price 1.15 mil
Feb 2019 sold price 876k.

Whooping 25% off the original list price.

If you are very firm on WB and SFR you could be waiting for awhile. WB resales are mostly condos.

I dont believe the Bloomdale house is that far off the mark. Maybe 1.05 - 1.1 makes more sense. I can?t compare the West Yale home to Bloomdale. One is a condo, backing to the loop, with a $456/monthly hoa fee, and no yard. Bloomdale?s hoa is $97 a month, it is surrounded by other homes, and its an sfr. The Yale Loop home should never have been listed over 950. That is a 850 - 900 condo. I believe the lower/mod Sfr hold up the best during a cyclical price drop/recession.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

May I call 20% drop? Ok, maybe more like 10-15% for Irvine.

Even 15% will be so much discount IMO. I mean $1m home will be $850k and $850k will be $722k. That's pretty huge, don't you think?

Many experts seem to make a call it will be flat to a little bit of down so I'm just going a bit more wild.

For a 15% drop in Irvine, something drastic would have to happen to non-Irvine real estate (like 25% drop), so not sure that will happen.

Are prices already starting to go back up? I think sales volume is down but pricing seems to have flattened out (for Irvine at least).

 

[usctrojancpa]

May I call 20% drop? Ok, maybe more like 10-15% for Irvine.

Even 15% will be so much discount IMO. I mean $1m home will be $850k and $850k will be $722k. That's pretty huge, don't you think?

Many experts seem to make a call it will be flat to a little bit of down so I'm just going a bit more wild.

For a 15% drop in Irvine, something drastic would have to happen to non-Irvine real estate (like 25% drop), so not sure that will happen.

Are prices already starting to go back up? I think sales volume is down but pricing seems to have flattened out (for Irvine at least).

The lower end definitely feels like it flattening out as rates continue to bleed lower and the stock market continues to grind higher.  Here are 3 examples of offers that I made for buyers on Irvine homes in Feb, all 3 sold over list price with multiple offers and I was only able to get one of the homes for a buyer (188 Guinevere)...
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/188-Guinevere-92620/home/12253576
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/10-Jefferson-92620/home/4782973
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/38-Concierto-92620/home/7210783

That being said, all 3 of these homes were priced reasonably and showed well and only sold $2k to $6k over the list price.

 

[lnc]

Are prices already starting to go back up? I think sales volume is down but pricing seems to have flattened out (for Irvine at least).

I think the sales and price are going back up. 

Mortgage rate are dropping and there's a big jump in February existing home sales.  Tomorrow NAR going to release February existing home sales figure and it going to surprise a lot of people. 

If the mortgage rate continues to go down and sales continues to go up, the housing price are going to pick up.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Are prices already starting to go back up? I think sales volume is down but pricing seems to have flattened out (for Irvine at least).

I think the sales and price are going back up. 

Mortgage rate are dropping and there's a big jump in February existing home sales.  Tomorrow NAR going to release February existing home sales figure and it going to surprise a lot of people. 

If the mortgage rate continues to go down and sales continues to go up, the housing price are going to pick up.

The lower end price may rise a bit but there's a lot of inventory to work through on the higher end for prices to go up in that price segment.