Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market?

[meccos12]

I fully agree. I went to Lennar's Cadence Park tour of Marcato, Capella, and Serenade floor plans/homes and they're already chopping $50K-100K off their price list. In fact the Capella homes (3740-4097 SF) price reduction was the most aggressive (up to $150K from list price) AND they had/have 10 homes to show me on the price list (3 of which fell out of escrow last month).

Now, just have to get the secondary sellers to come to terms with the market cycle and cut their prices accordingly! Some of these sellers are delusional.

@USC:

Since it seems to be the consensus that nationwide housing is slowing more than usual at this time of year, do you observe the same thing for Irvine?

Do you think it will it stay down once spring/summer gets here or as the Closed Sales chart trend shows, it will just pick up again?

My guess is that prices will be flat to slightly down this year (that's assuming that rates stay flat and the economy doesn't go into recession).  If rates go into the 3s, that'll bring more buyers off the fence and should cushion the market a bit. There are A LOT of stubborn/delusional sellers out there, especially in Irvine. Many of these sellers are foreign owners who own the homes without a mortgage who still think that their properties are special and should be trading above closed comps from early 2018.  I also believe that we will continue to see more properties come to market as we get into Spring and we'll cross the 1,000+ active listing mark sometime this Spring/Summer.  The higher end market ($1.2m+ in Irvine) will be under more pressure than the sub $1m market as builders will be more apt to wheel and deal to sell their "quick move-in" homes.  Remember that the majority of the new homes in Irvine are above are above $1m.  It'll be interesting how Novel Park will sell once they open up later in the Spring.  All that means is that buyers will have more homes to pick from and find reasonable sellers who wants/needs to sell their homes at a reasonable price.  I do see homes that look good and are priced right that go to escrow quickly but that's more the exception than the norm today.

But this could just be seasonal... ask IHO.  LOL

 

[Mety]

Well, IHO's been accusing me as BTB or even his wife for a long time.

Are you eyephone now? Show me where I have been doing what you said for a "long time".

I vaguely recall calling you (or someone else) BTB's wife as a joke because of their ardent support but I think you are stretching this "long time accusation" notion.

Ok, let me rephrase it. Man, you so nitpicking.

IHO called me BTB's wife couple months ago just because I agreed with him in some stuff. I knew it was a joke of course.

BUT I do believe he still time to time maybe occasionally or maybe firmly believes I am BTB's or YF's another account. CV always thought I was BTB I guess since I wasn't saying much nice stuff about GP where I think he is kind of related to. But it's just funny how some other TI members also think I'm BTB. LOL. Being influence Much???

 

[Mety]

@USC:

Since it seems to be the consensus that nationwide housing is slowing more than usual at this time of year, do you observe the same thing for Irvine?

Do you think it will it stay down once spring/summer gets here or as the Closed Sales chart trend shows, it will just pick up again?

Or is it just seasonal?  LOL 

Now you get it. Finally.

LOL.  you are slower than I thought.

Hey mecco12, they think we are the same person now. Should we just merge our names and call it, YellowFever?

They as in IHO?

Well, IHO's been accusing me as BTB or even his wife for a long time. CV thinks I'm BTB for sure. Now zubs called me and you as BTB reincarnated in New Home Inspection thread. So they must all think we are the same person. I think someone also accused eyephone as you at some point. lol So from their theory, YF=BTB=eyephone=meccos12=Mety. It's kinda fun they think we are the same person. I might as well as act like I'm YF from now on.  > ;D

Seems like pretty simple to me.  They (as in IHO, Zubs, CV) argue that housing is strong and there is no slowdown.  They see people (like eye, me, you and few others) claiming it is slowing down.  They attack those people like us.  Everyone finds out the truth that housing is truly slowing down.  They act now to discredit those people that proved them wrong through attacks completely unrelated to topic on hand.  Soon they will change the story and claim they knew housing was slowing and they saw it. 

Maybe. I wasn't thinking that deep, but maybe you right.



IHO just called me eyephone also.   So whom should I play my role as in TI? eyephone? BTB? YF? ps9?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Well, IHO's been accusing me as BTB or even his wife for a long time.

Are you eyephone now? Show me where I have been doing what you said for a "long time".

I vaguely recall calling you (or someone else) BTB's wife as a joke because of their ardent support but I think you are stretching this "long time accusation" notion.

Ok, let me rephrase it. Man, you so nitpicking.

IHO called me BTB's wife couple months ago just because I agreed with him in some stuff. I knew it was a joke of course.

BUT I do believe he still time to time maybe occasionally or maybe firmly believes I am BTB's or YF's another account. CV always thought I was BTB I guess since I wasn't saying much nice stuff about GP where I think he is kind of related to. But it's just funny how some other TI members also think I'm BTB. LOL. Being influence Much???

Again, find the posts where I accuse you of being BTB in a non-joking manner. I've even said I don't think you are BTB.

And unlike eyephone and meccos12, I can actually provide the posts to prove what I'm saying:

And I don't think anyone really thinks you are BTB, but the way you say you know his stance and viewpoint and how you defend him really does come off like you are his wife. If I could thank bones' post 10 more times, I would... because that was hilarious.

That's not nitpicking, that's accuracy.

 

[Mety]

Well, IHO's been accusing me as BTB or even his wife for a long time.

Are you eyephone now? Show me where I have been doing what you said for a "long time".

I vaguely recall calling you (or someone else) BTB's wife as a joke because of their ardent support but I think you are stretching this "long time accusation" notion.

Ok, let me rephrase it. Man, you so nitpicking.

IHO called me BTB's wife couple months ago just because I agreed with him in some stuff. I knew it was a joke of course.

BUT I do believe he still time to time maybe occasionally or maybe firmly believes I am BTB's or YF's another account. CV always thought I was BTB I guess since I wasn't saying much nice stuff about GP where I think he is kind of related to. But it's just funny how some other TI members also think I'm BTB. LOL. Being influence Much???

Again, find the posts where I accuse you of being BTB in a non-joking manner. I've even said I don't think you are BTB.

And unlike eyephone and meccos12, I can actually provide the posts to prove what I'm saying:

And I don't think anyone really thinks you are BTB, but the way you say you know his stance and viewpoint and how you defend him really does come off like you are his wife. If I could thank bones' post 10 more times, I would... because that was hilarious.

That's not nitpicking, that's accuracy.

You so sexy.

 

[Mety]

One question. Kinda off topic (not really), but since we are in accusing people mode.

Are BK and IHS the same person?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Seems like pretty simple to me.  They (as in IHO, Zubs, CV) argue that housing is strong and there is no slowdown.  They see people (like eye, me, you and few others) claiming it is slowing down.  They attack those people like us.  Everyone finds out the truth that housing is truly slowing down.  They act now to discredit those people that proved them wrong through attacks completely unrelated to topic on hand.  Soon they will change the story and claim they knew housing was slowing and they saw it.   

This couldn't be farther from the truth.

Go back and read the Housing Analysis thread... I was asking for eyephone's analysis and opinions on why he thinks that way. I also asked for details like how much and how long.

No one attacked... we just asked for clarification, analysis and details (of which you finally stepped in and provided which I appreciated).

If anyone is attacking, it's you for questioning my credibility when I answered all the questions you asked of me, I even provided historical posts to give you context which instead you tried to turn into more ways to try to prove me wrong.

That was my mistake for trying to have a discussion with you. I thought you were only interested in providing data and facts... so why do you keep posting your opinion on my credibility? Why is that so important to you? Does it make you feel superior on an anonymous forum to question my credibility?

LOL

 

[irvinehomeowner]

One question. Kinda off topic (not really), but since we are in accusing people mode.

Are BK and IHS the same person?

I plead the 5th.

 

[meccos12]

IHO.  its very simple.  Dont try to complicate things to hide the facts. 

People like me and eyephone called a housing slowdown early on.  In fact I even called for a market top sometime during the summer, when people thought housing was still hot.  You refuted our claims and implied otherwise.  We went on back and forth defending each of our positions over many threads.
In the end, you were wrong.  However rather than just admit to the truth, you continue to carry on with these lame responses.  This is why you have no credibility.   

 

[usctrojancpa]

It will happen, those delusional sellers just need some time to help them sober up.  There will be those stubborn ones who'll keep their home on the market forever at their inflated asking price and some will decide to rent out the home and try again later but the fact is that more homes will be coming onto the market and that'll continue to put pressure on prices, especially in the higher end of the market.  Patience will be rewarded with those high end home buyers.

I fully agree. I went to Lennar's Cadence Park tour of Marcato, Capella, and Serenade floor plans/homes and they're already chopping $50K-100K off their price list. In fact the Capella homes (3740-4097 SF) price reduction was the most aggressive (up to $150K from list price) AND they had/have 10 homes to show me on the price list (3 of which fell out of escrow last month).

Now, just have to get the secondary sellers to come to terms with the market cycle and cut their prices accordingly! Some of these sellers are delusional.

@USC:

Since it seems to be the consensus that nationwide housing is slowing more than usual at this time of year, do you observe the same thing for Irvine?

Do you think it will it stay down once spring/summer gets here or as the Closed Sales chart trend shows, it will just pick up again?

My guess is that prices will be flat to slightly down this year (that's assuming that rates stay flat and the economy doesn't go into recession).  If rates go into the 3s, that'll bring more buyers off the fence and should cushion the market a bit. There are A LOT of stubborn/delusional sellers out there, especially in Irvine. Many of these sellers are foreign owners who own the homes without a mortgage who still think that their properties are special and should be trading above closed comps from early 2018.  I also believe that we will continue to see more properties come to market as we get into Spring and we'll cross the 1,000+ active listing mark sometime this Spring/Summer.  The higher end market ($1.2m+ in Irvine) will be under more pressure than the sub $1m market as builders will be more apt to wheel and deal to sell their "quick move-in" homes.  Remember that the majority of the new homes in Irvine are above are above $1m.  It'll be interesting how Novel Park will sell once they open up later in the Spring.  All that means is that buyers will have more homes to pick from and find reasonable sellers who wants/needs to sell their homes at a reasonable price.  I do see homes that look good and are priced right that go to escrow quickly but that's more the exception than the norm today.

 

[meccos12]

It will happen, those delusional sellers just need some time to help them sober up.  There will be those stubborn ones who'll keep their home on the market forever at their inflated asking price and some will decide to rent out the home and try again later but the fact is that more homes will be coming onto the market and that'll continue to put pressure on prices, especially in the higher end of the market.  Patience will be rewarded with those high end home buyers.

Be careful advising people to wait to buy.  IHO and CV will blast you for this.  Just look at what happened with eyephone. 

 

[usctrojancpa]

It will happen, those delusional sellers just need some time to help them sober up.  There will be those stubborn ones who'll keep their home on the market forever at their inflated asking price and some will decide to rent out the home and try again later but the fact is that more homes will be coming onto the market and that'll continue to put pressure on prices, especially in the higher end of the market.  Patience will be rewarded with those high end home buyers.

Be careful advising people to wait to buy.  IHO and CV will blast you for this.  Just look at what happened with eyephone. 

I'm just the local TI realtor speaking his mind but I'm sure most people including IHO and CV would agree with me except for delusional sellers like 107 Cardinal.  haha

 

[Mety]

One question. Kinda off topic (not really), but since we are in accusing people mode.

Are BK and IHS the same person?

I plead the 5th.

I kinda thought their speaking or writing styles were similar. I don't know if that's the Chinese style of language or expression they are used to. I don't even know if they are Chinese, but just saying I find similarity. Anyways, like zubs said, it don't really matter if they are the same person or not. Chinese or American or Mexican I don't really care. Just got curious all the sudden. And as far as I know, BTB isn't back. There are some suspicious ones, but we will see.  8)

 

[irvinebullhousing]

It will happen, those delusional sellers just need some time to help them sober up.  There will be those stubborn ones who'll keep their home on the market forever at their inflated asking price and some will decide to rent out the home and try again later but the fact is that more homes will be coming onto the market and that'll continue to put pressure on prices, especially in the higher end of the market.  Patience will be rewarded with those high end home buyers.

Be careful advising people to wait to buy.  IHO and CV will blast you for this.  Just look at what happened with eyephone.

Everyone entitled to their opinions. You can wait, or you can buy as long as you happy with it, whoever saying is just noise.

 

[Mety]

It will happen, those delusional sellers just need some time to help them sober up.  There will be those stubborn ones who'll keep their home on the market forever at their inflated asking price and some will decide to rent out the home and try again later but the fact is that more homes will be coming onto the market and that'll continue to put pressure on prices, especially in the higher end of the market.  Patience will be rewarded with those high end home buyers.

Be careful advising people to wait to buy.  IHO and CV will blast you for this.  Just look at what happened with eyephone.

Everyone entitled to their opinions. You can wait, or you can buy as long as you happy with it, whoever saying is just noise.

Well said, sir.

 

[eyephone]

Seems like pretty simple to me.  They (as in IHO, Zubs, CV) argue that housing is strong and there is no slowdown.  They see people (like eye, me, you and few others) claiming it is slowing down.  They attack those people like us.  Everyone finds out the truth that housing is truly slowing down.  They act now to discredit those people that proved them wrong through attacks completely unrelated to topic on hand.  Soon they will change the story and claim they knew housing was slowing and they saw it.   

This couldn't be farther from the truth.

Go back and read the Housing Analysis thread... I was asking for eyephone's analysis and opinions on why he thinks that way. I also asked for details like how much and how long.

No one attacked... we just asked for clarification, analysis and details (of which you finally stepped in and provided which I appreciated).

If anyone is attacking, it's you for questioning my credibility when I answered all the questions you asked of me, I even provided historical posts to give you context which instead you tried to turn into more ways to try to prove me wrong.

That was my mistake for trying to have a discussion with you. I thought you were only interested in providing data and facts... so why do you keep posting your opinion on my credibility? Why is that so important to you? Does it make you feel superior on an anonymous forum to question my credibility?

LOL

Since this is an anonymous forum. Is it okay to talk nonsense like what you are doing? It?s plain and simple that you are trolling. You shouldn?t be surprised it people second guess your posts.

 

[Mety]

Seems like pretty simple to me.  They (as in IHO, Zubs, CV) argue that housing is strong and there is no slowdown.  They see people (like eye, me, you and few others) claiming it is slowing down.  They attack those people like us.  Everyone finds out the truth that housing is truly slowing down.  They act now to discredit those people that proved them wrong through attacks completely unrelated to topic on hand.  Soon they will change the story and claim they knew housing was slowing and they saw it.   

This couldn't be farther from the truth.

Go back and read the Housing Analysis thread... I was asking for eyephone's analysis and opinions on why he thinks that way. I also asked for details like how much and how long.

No one attacked... we just asked for clarification, analysis and details (of which you finally stepped in and provided which I appreciated).

If anyone is attacking, it's you for questioning my credibility when I answered all the questions you asked of me, I even provided historical posts to give you context which instead you tried to turn into more ways to try to prove me wrong.

That was my mistake for trying to have a discussion with you. I thought you were only interested in providing data and facts... so why do you keep posting your opinion on my credibility? Why is that so important to you? Does it make you feel superior on an anonymous forum to question my credibility?

LOL

Since this is an anonymous forum. Is it okay to talk nonsense like what you are doing? It?s plain and simple that you are trolling. You shouldn?t be surprised it people second guess your posts.

Just post this whenever he trolls you.

 

[zubs]

Seems like pretty simple to me.  They (as in IHO, Zubs, CV) argue that housing is strong and there is no slowdown.  They see people (like eye, me, you and few others) claiming it is slowing down.  They attack those people like us.  Everyone finds out the truth that housing is truly slowing down.  They act now to discredit those people that proved them wrong through attacks completely unrelated to topic on hand.  Soon they will change the story and claim they knew housing was slowing and they saw it.   

We never said that housing was strong and there was no slowdown...I guess you could imply all the seasonality crap from IHO as us saying there is no slowdown...a bit of a stretch though.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Rick Rude is awesome.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Seems like pretty simple to me.  They (as in IHO, Zubs, CV) argue that housing is strong and there is no slowdown.  They see people (like eye, me, you and few others) claiming it is slowing down.  They attack those people like us.  Everyone finds out the truth that housing is truly slowing down.  They act now to discredit those people that proved them wrong through attacks completely unrelated to topic on hand.  Soon they will change the story and claim they knew housing was slowing and they saw it.   

This couldn't be farther from the truth.

Go back and read the Housing Analysis thread... I was asking for eyephone's analysis and opinions on why he thinks that way. I also asked for details like how much and how long.

No one attacked... we just asked for clarification, analysis and details (of which you finally stepped in and provided which I appreciated).

If anyone is attacking, it's you for questioning my credibility when I answered all the questions you asked of me, I even provided historical posts to give you context which instead you tried to turn into more ways to try to prove me wrong.

That was my mistake for trying to have a discussion with you. I thought you were only interested in providing data and facts... so why do you keep posting your opinion on my credibility? Why is that so important to you? Does it make you feel superior on an anonymous forum to question my credibility?

LOL

Since this is an anonymous forum. Is it okay to talk nonsense like what you are doing? It?s plain and simple that you are trolling. You shouldn?t be surprised it people second guess your posts.

Blah blah blah. Zero calorie post.