Perspective
Well-known member
GH said:
Wouldn't you trade a 52% larger lot needing landscaping for avoiding a shared courtyard driveway (all other things being equal).
Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers
- Thread starter usctrojancpa
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Wouldn't you trade a 52% larger lot needing landscaping for avoiding a shared courtyard driveway (all other things being equal).
OH! THERE'S the plan one at Saviero they never built a model for and is STILL unsold from phase one.
Heard thru the grapevine Tay Mo will accept way less than asking on this one so maybe now is your time to pounce on that easy decision.
The rule of thumb you should use, is that house prices track the annual inflation rate very closely over long periods, beating it by maybe a point or two. This doesn't work well for the period from 2008 to present because mortgage rates dropped 40% (from ~6.5% to below 4%). So, an adjustment to the standard rule of thumb is necessary.
Agree with everything, except the part about people spending a higher percentage of their income on housing. Current loans' front-end DTIs are averaging 24% in the US (with 37% back-end DTIs). We'll never know the real DTIs during the 2000s because borrowers lied about income and loan payments didn't always reflect the fully-indexed rate on a fully-amortized payment.
Wouldn't you trade a 52% larger lot needing landscaping for avoiding a shared courtyard driveway (all other things being equal).
Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
Perspective said:
OH! THERE'S the plan one at Saviero they never built a model for and is STILL unsold from phase one.
Heard thru the grapevine Tay Mo will accept way less than asking on this one so maybe now is your time to pounce on that easy decision.
Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
How much is Strada?
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Base is around $1.1-$1.2mReady2Downsize said:
Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
$1.1 Million for under 2200 square feet and no upgrades, window coverings or landscaping?
Good Lord. I hope this kool aid market doesn't turn sour.
Pretty confident if someone is a verified buyer of 250 Desert Bloom for Strada prices they can buy 12 Fairview for the same.
Good Lord. I hope this kool aid market doesn't turn sour.
Pretty confident if someone is a verified buyer of 250 Desert Bloom for Strada prices they can buy 12 Fairview for the same.
Coleman
New member
Anyone ever do any analysis of what a healthy market should have looked like from 1995 to 2015 then factor in the boom/bust of 2006-2010 section.
Someone once said that houses typically double in price every 10 years.
I often think about 2005 as not being that long ago, but it was 10 years ago! (wow- I am getting old)
So with that mentality
In 2005 - house costs $100
In 2015 - House should cost $200
However, if the house costs $140 in 2015 shouldn't it be pretty typical given that it would be 70% of a semi inflated 2005 number?
Someone once said that houses typically double in price every 10 years.
I often think about 2005 as not being that long ago, but it was 10 years ago! (wow- I am getting old)
So with that mentality
In 2005 - house costs $100
In 2015 - House should cost $200
However, if the house costs $140 in 2015 shouldn't it be pretty typical given that it would be 70% of a semi inflated 2005 number?
Perspective
Well-known member
Coleman said:
The rule of thumb you should use, is that house prices track the annual inflation rate very closely over long periods, beating it by maybe a point or two. This doesn't work well for the period from 2008 to present because mortgage rates dropped 40% (from ~6.5% to below 4%). So, an adjustment to the standard rule of thumb is necessary.
Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
Depends on where you bought in the housing cycle and the location. I've been thru several downturns in which prices significantly dropped. So if you buy at THE bottom, then maybe you'll get a double in 10 years in the right location. Plenty of places where houses barely even move in price in a low inflation environment.
A house would have to go up 7% every year for 10 years in a row to nearly double. To get that we'd have to see more inflation because ultimately houses will move with inflation.
My mom has owned her house for over 50 years and it has not doubled 5 times.
I've owned my house for 17 years and it would have to rise 48% in the next three years to double twice. (It did double after the first 10 years but then it dropped significantly).
The house I owned in Tustin Ranch will be 30 years old in 4 more years. It would have to nearly double again from today's prices to double three times (So......... a little more than doubled in 26 years time but it has been thru two significant downturns in which the value dropped 30% each time).
I would give better odds that we'll see houses not go up much or drop than doubling in the next 10 years from today's prices UNLESS we get significant inflation and wage increases.
A house would have to go up 7% every year for 10 years in a row to nearly double. To get that we'd have to see more inflation because ultimately houses will move with inflation.
My mom has owned her house for over 50 years and it has not doubled 5 times.
I've owned my house for 17 years and it would have to rise 48% in the next three years to double twice. (It did double after the first 10 years but then it dropped significantly).
The house I owned in Tustin Ranch will be 30 years old in 4 more years. It would have to nearly double again from today's prices to double three times (So......... a little more than doubled in 26 years time but it has been thru two significant downturns in which the value dropped 30% each time).
I would give better odds that we'll see houses not go up much or drop than doubling in the next 10 years from today's prices UNLESS we get significant inflation and wage increases.
min wage will increase 66% in 2 years, ripple effect everywhere which will lead to increase prices throughout
Also lead to slower growth in small businesses, a lot will actually cut staff or even shut down or move
Interest rates will go up next year with high probability
Days of doubling home values in 10 years would be more like 20-30 years...
Also lead to slower growth in small businesses, a lot will actually cut staff or even shut down or move
Interest rates will go up next year with high probability
Days of doubling home values in 10 years would be more like 20-30 years...
thelandofnoland
New member
Please contact me athttp://thenewhomeblog.wix.com/the-new-home-blogfor more information on the original post. Thank you.
paperboyNC
New member
Housing prices tend to go up with inflation. Inflation is around 2%. that means prices double every 36 years, but on a non-inflation basis they stay the same.
That's the guideline you should use.
That's the guideline you should use.
Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
I'll be happy if rates go up and home prices stay the same for a while.
do people actually think prices will rise exponentially? If you think prices will double every ten years, I suppose you do. Its one thing to say a house may double in price in a one 10 year period, its another thing to expect that to continue as a trend. Like someone mentioned earlier, if you bought at a bottom, perhaps a house may double in ten years. Otherwise no way in hell. Without studying a chart, I would expect that the only time that has happened was many years ago when you could purchase a house for 10K or during the early to mid 2000's which we all know was a bubble.
Houses will likely track inflation as it has done for many years.
Based on wages and income housing is currently overpriced. People are using a much higher percentage of their incomes for housing. At some point (which I believe to be now or very soon), incomes will not be able to support housing prices. So unless you expect wages to rise significantly as well, do not expect housing prices to grow exponentially. I actually would expect flat prices or maybe even a slight decline over the next several years. Homes bought today will NOT double in ten years. Based on today's valuation, I think you would be lucky if your house went up 10-15% over the next 10 years. Just my two cents.
Houses will likely track inflation as it has done for many years.
Based on wages and income housing is currently overpriced. People are using a much higher percentage of their incomes for housing. At some point (which I believe to be now or very soon), incomes will not be able to support housing prices. So unless you expect wages to rise significantly as well, do not expect housing prices to grow exponentially. I actually would expect flat prices or maybe even a slight decline over the next several years. Homes bought today will NOT double in ten years. Based on today's valuation, I think you would be lucky if your house went up 10-15% over the next 10 years. Just my two cents.
Perspective
Well-known member
hello said:
Agree with everything, except the part about people spending a higher percentage of their income on housing. Current loans' front-end DTIs are averaging 24% in the US (with 37% back-end DTIs). We'll never know the real DTIs during the 2000s because borrowers lied about income and loan payments didn't always reflect the fully-indexed rate on a fully-amortized payment.