MOST IMPORTANT POST EVER

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
I also wouldn't give to much creedence to these graphs. I will admit that while my numbers I gave in my previous post SHOULD deter people from moving up, that is not always the case. At some point, a person can nolonger move up, and with rates rising, and guidlines tightening, the time is drawing near for many people.
 
And don't forget "<a href="http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2007/08/if-i-didnt-have-that-jenae-magic-in.html">Super Jenae</a>," and others like her. Bubble Tracking is highlighting some very fraud-like transactions in SD.
 
I think the data is legit, I wonder about the underlying deals. I also agree with the plankton theory. I also know what my eyes see in the market which is that the top end is moving much better than the lower end.
 
Some "experts" finally get it!!!!! From CNBC: <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/20196859">www.cnbc.com/id/20196859</a>





Quote:





"It's a disaster, not just down the road, right now -- everybody is sugar coating this and glossing over it," said Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital. "The evidence points to a crash landing (in housing), it's a Hindenburg."

<p class="textBodyBlack">"We've been going on this unprecedented consumption binge and flooding the world with these worthless subprime mortgages and the world has been recycling their export earnings into our mortgage paper," he added. "Now they're finding out they aren’t worth the values that they think."</p>
 
<p>Are there any pre-emptive measures that banks such as Countrywide are taking in anticipation of the massive amounts of resets (hence walking away from properties) that are going to occur in the next 6 months? Or are they absolutely not going to be able to do anything about it (with the exception of a government bailout of the homeowners)?</p>

<p><img alt="" src="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/03/reset.PNG" /></p>

<p><img alt="" src="http://bp2.blogger.com/_A2btxwmKXXg/RrChc4sRz6I/AAAAAAAAApM/sz01EBzRBdE/s400/foreclosures.gif" /></p>
 
<p>Actually yes,</p>

<p>I am doing totally free note modifications for borrowers that are in ARMs. We don't need appraisal, credit, nothing. Some people see there 6.875 arm get reduced to a 10 year arm @ 6.375%,</p>

<p>Would you believe that half the people I talk to, do not call me back</p>
 
<p>awgee,</p>

<p>I appreciate your kindness. I must agree with graphrix that your comment was pretty funny, and very good too may I add. I did get a big laugh out of it, in a good way, which is good. Many thanks.</p>

<p>I imagine there are lots of money out there from foreign countries due to economic booms. These available money need a safe place to be, I am thinking US is the best place. In addition, the fed can just print even more money. I am thinking the available money can not just evaporate overnight. I admit, I need to read more about econ. Credit worthy borrowers can still get affordable loans funded, as I experienced. The spike in cost to borrow jumbo loans should be just a spike.</p>

<p>Now, I have clients who borrow much over $1M for home purchase. What can they do to write off the interest above $1M loan amount. Thank you so much in advance for your advice.</p>
 
<em>"the fed can just print even more money."





</em>Actually they did just that this morning along with the ECB....lol. I think it was in the tune of $24B
 
<p>>>>Would you believe that half the people I talk to, do not call me back.<<<</p>

<p>I guess they didn't know what they got into, and they don't know how to get out of it. Even if the answer is right in front of them.</p>

<p>I guess a government bailout of many residential homeowners is all but inevitable. You can't count on these homeowners to take the right steps themselves in order to mitigate the damage.</p>
 
<p><em>Inre the 50% not calling you back, what do you suspect they're looking for? Cash-out? A $700/mo lower payment?</em> </p>

<p>They're looking for the same kind of deal that got them in the home, an option ARM that only requires a $450 per $150,000 borrowed. A $600,000 loan had a payment of $1800. At 6+3/8ths, the payment is $3743, IO only is still $3187 which is probably still 50% more than they can afford.</p>

<p>It's been one of my arguments from early on that restructuring loans isn't going to save the boat, the majority of people that got the toxic loans can't afford the IO payment on their balance even if they get a straight T-bill rate.</p>

<p>The OC Register used to have two charts under their zip code chart when published. One was a year long graph of median price, the other a year long graph of the payment using traditional financing. From 2001 to 2004 the price kept going up, but the payment stayed the same, then all hell broke loose and the payment chart started to climb, then I don't recall seeing it any more.</p>
 
<p>>>>From 2001 to 2004 the price kept going up, but the payment stayed the same, then all hell broke loose and the payment chart started to climb, then I don't recall seeing it any more.<<<</p>

<p>That's interesting to hear. I don't get the OC Register but do remember seeing the charts to which you are referring.</p>
 
<p>NIR - There is no tax compliant method to deduct mortgage interest on loan amounts more than $1 mil on single family primary residence. And 99% of those seeking a $1mil loan will not be able to deduct all their mortgage interest due to high income deduction phase outs and AMT.</p>

<p>masterofdamoney - Actually in our fractional reserve system, money does just evaporate, in exactly the opposite way it is created. When loans are paid back, the money dissappears, exactly the opposite of how it is created when it is borrowed. The discreation or dissappearance of money is deflation, the big bugaboo for the fed.</p>
 
@IrvineCommuter





Peter Schiff didn't finally get it, he has been saying that for a long long time. Take a look at the videos at his site europac.net





Better yet, take a look at this <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoZV5jt9puc">www.youtube.com/watch</a>





I'm still trying to finish his book, Crash Proof.
 
oc-conservative: regarding that scary looking chart of mortgage resets, Countrywide has stated publicly that it is misleading because 2/3 of the borrowers whose loans were going to be reset this fall have already refinanced. That's one explanation for why risks are overblown (although keep in mind Countrywide's CEO also said he doesn't see market improvement until 2009).
 
eek,





Such a great video. . . thanks for link.. . . I did not realize that Tony Little was in the real estate market.





I like the guy who was laughing at the end, I wonder what he is doing now?
 
<p>It is times like this that I think the gov't needs to legalize marijuana. There, I've said it. They can make money off of the sale and distribution of it. Tax it to holy-hell. Use this money to fund a housing program. The homeowners are going to need some "green relief" anyways since their dollars are burning up in flames.</p>

<p>ahh..but I digress</p>
 
Wow. I think i learned more about the money system in awgee's post than in basic econ. I've never heard of fiat currency and am now reading about it on wikipedia. :) This thread has been quite informative, I must say. Thanks to all the contributors!





From all the posts, it seems like the best move right now would be to pull all my cash out and dump it in a foreign bond market using a less volatile currency. Yuan here I come, I guess.





edit: eek. Great video. Mr. Spiff actually seems like he knows what he's talking about. Let us know how the book is!
 
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