MOST IMPORTANT POST EVER

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<p>Some interesting excerpts from the Indymac layoff letter:</p>

<p><em> When I discussed the results of the voluntary resignation and severance program in an email to all of you on October 12, I stated, “I believe that we are largely done with staff reductions at this time except for some small, targeted layoffs over the next 30 days … unless, of course, the mortgage market takes another turn for the worse.” The reality is that since October 12 conditions have gotten worse in our industry. The private secondary market remains virtually frozen</em></p>

<p><em>Frankly, given the fact that Indymac’s previous core business … non-GSE mortgage banking … is currently gone</em></p>

<p><em>In light of these market conditions, this action to further right-size our costs is a necessary step in our drive to return Indymac to profitability soon. </em>LOL on that one !


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Conforming rates are going up, up, up. Not good. The 10 year yield has been going down the last 2 days, but mortgage rates have been going up. I've confirmed this with other banks and wholesale broker. I think the risk premium factor is really starting to kick in. Purchase transactions at the bank are all but non-existent.
 
<p>Lendingmaestro,</p>

<p>Are rates still low for excellent credit and more than 20% down??? Will all us conservative folks waiting it out still be able to secure better rates due to money down and financially responsible? Or will all rates go "up up up"?</p>
 
It must be coming as a shock to many people that rates would go up in the face of major drops in the FED funds rate. I am rather surprised it has taken lenders this long to properly price in their risk. Now with the FED rate drops causing more inflation, the two seem to cancel each other out, or maybe inflation has even a greater effect. I hope rates continue to rise for the next several years. I would like to take out a 12% loan for a property because the principal amount will be small (prices will be low) and I will be able to refinance at a lower rate in the future.
 
The FED funds rate is only loosly correlated with mortgage rates. The FED cut the rate to bail out the banks, not help homebuyers. Long term rates are based on percieved risk and some speculation on where interest rates will be several years from now. The anticipation is the FED will cut the short term rate once or twice more this year but that because of inflation rates will be hiked back up starting in the third quarter.
 
Refi now. Lat week a 5 year ARM was 4.875- 5.125% with no points and a 30 year fixed was 5.375% with no points.





Now a 5 year ARM is still around 5% with no points, but the 30 yr fixed has jumped to 6% or more.





The spread between short term rates and long term rates is normalizing. By that I mean the spread is widening as it should, avoiding a negative (inverted) yield curve.
 
<p>I still think that with money vanishing what we are in for is some inflation, followed by deflation. If prices drop (you should excuse the expression) countrywide 20 %, thats 4 trillion dollars of (illusory) worth vanished. 30%, 6 Trillion. And then all that other debt in the exotic pools and stuff which has vanished. I don't think Bernake even wil realize just how much money he has to print.</p>

<p>Gosh, I have a ri-fi to do. Rejoice everyone. A respite from evictions, foreclosure defense and real estate litigation.</p>

<p>My former secy (not the one who is doing HELOCs) started a title company some years ago. I'm pretty sure she borrowed against her house to do it. I'd like to know how she is doing but am sorta afraid to call her.</p>
 
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