Midterm Elections
- Thread starter eyephone
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Curious to see if the jobs numbers are legit. 100+K jobs in March...a 50,000 downward revising for the January and February numbers.
hard for them to mess with this data - even if they wanted to, they are just understaffed (dont have enough minions to tamper w established career bureaucrats) - so yes, they are legit
if you hear wall street and financial advisors , there is some weather related excuse for march. but as you know, there is always some excuse. when the number is good , it is all about the strong economy, when it is bad , it is always something else, etc.
the bottomline is this -- everyone will craft a soothing story AFTER the event has happened . If you ask me the financial investment arena is the one place where scam artists can continue thrive even after repeatedly being wrong because no one is keeping track. you just have to look and sound knowledgeable on tv / radio / print.
the $50 / day was what he paid -- less than 20% of the market going rate for the condo owned by the lobbyist -- people have summarily been fired in the past for lot less (under both the parties administrations).
As to comparing Democratic misdeeds - no one is saying there are/were none .
But Trump and his antics make Bill Clinton look like George Washington. As a finance person , you should know -- there is some thing like " relative valuation "
Oh...what I meant was whether the numbers are going to be a trend or just a bump...one month numbers are pretty much useless. Need to look at 3 to 6 months at a minimal.
After this trade war nonsense, i just don't know.
Before i would have said, job growth will continue healthy but slow down a tad simply becasue we are reaching peak employment (down to 4%)
But now, Trump's negotiating tactic may backfire . What began as a bargaining tool may become something both Trump and Xi may lose control of. And once you lose the market's confidence , it takes a long time to get it back
Businesses that were planning to ramp up capital expenditures (say, from tax cuts) may now pause again - waiting to see how the tarriffs play out , before making a move .
it is this indecisiveness that is the kiss of death for growth. Then consumers follow , retrenching demand and then soon we are talking about the Federal Reserve CUTTING rates !
Problem is Trump is way too dumb and stuck in the 80s to realize how global trade works now. The adults have all left (Cohn). Our last best hope is Kudlow , however crankpot he may otherwise be. But look at that article I posted about how even Kudlow was out of the loop on these 100 bn of new tarriffs
we are truly in uncharted territory
Screaming MAGA-heads dont want to understand all this - my hope is someone who is smart and balanced will show up on fox and friends and convince trump to change course a bit.
China is not losing the trade war...it would materially undermine their prestige internationally and domestically. The CCP will take the trade war to its grave.
US government serves business interests...in China, business interests serve the government.
When you are a hammer, everything looks like a nail
US assets and US dollar are always at a premium because US has the one thing most of the world doesn't - transparency, accountability and respect for intellectual property rights and law - all backed by military might
Most people have absolutely no idea what policy goes in to lubricate the world economy - very easy to pass sound bites and judgements.
We could have easily imploded in 2011, or 2015 -- but the " gentlemen and ladies" of the world came together to set up currency swap lines for global banks (too much arcane to explain here but can do it offline if anyone wants) that prevented a repeat of 2008 or 1998 - all this was done quietly and behind the scenes - and no one got credit for it.
Soft spoken and ungainly looking policy makers and bureaucrats who don't have silcone-infused model wives on their arms don't draw the same level of attention and don't need to.
What happens if we debase ourselves and stop respecting contracts -- and change policy at whim ? It means the world will get a shock at first but over the longer term , gradually adjust and pivot away from us.
I would have had more faith in this threat-driven negotiating tactic if there was any sort of plan or someone adults around trump to catch him when he went too far . the thing is we don't and that's the reality we have to live with
What we are in right now is unstable equilibrium. You better hope it stays that way and does not tip into chaos. Otherwise all the financial advisors , mortgage brokers and real estate agents may have to downsize from their AMG or M-performance cars into Toyota Camrys (not that there is anything wrong with a Camry
Irvinecommuter
New member
eyephone said:
Curious to see if the jobs numbers are legit. 100+K jobs in March...a 50,000 downward revising for the January and February numbers.
Irvinecommuter said:
hard for them to mess with this data - even if they wanted to, they are just understaffed (dont have enough minions to tamper w established career bureaucrats) - so yes, they are legit
if you hear wall street and financial advisors , there is some weather related excuse for march. but as you know, there is always some excuse. when the number is good , it is all about the strong economy, when it is bad , it is always something else, etc.
the bottomline is this -- everyone will craft a soothing story AFTER the event has happened . If you ask me the financial investment arena is the one place where scam artists can continue thrive even after repeatedly being wrong because no one is keeping track. you just have to look and sound knowledgeable on tv / radio / print.
morekaos said:
the $50 / day was what he paid -- less than 20% of the market going rate for the condo owned by the lobbyist -- people have summarily been fired in the past for lot less (under both the parties administrations).
As to comparing Democratic misdeeds - no one is saying there are/were none .
But Trump and his antics make Bill Clinton look like George Washington. As a finance person , you should know -- there is some thing like " relative valuation "
nosuchreality
Well-known member
JIMHO, we should hope for Trump to stop firing people because frankly the replacements make the originals look awesome.
Kind of like if Trump get's forced out, you get the Torquemada and a vindictive horde to support him.
Kind of like if Trump get's forced out, you get the Torquemada and a vindictive horde to support him.
Irvinecommuter
New member
fortune11 said:
Oh...what I meant was whether the numbers are going to be a trend or just a bump...one month numbers are pretty much useless. Need to look at 3 to 6 months at a minimal.
Irvinecommuter said:
After this trade war nonsense, i just don't know.
Before i would have said, job growth will continue healthy but slow down a tad simply becasue we are reaching peak employment (down to 4%)
But now, Trump's negotiating tactic may backfire . What began as a bargaining tool may become something both Trump and Xi may lose control of. And once you lose the market's confidence , it takes a long time to get it back
Businesses that were planning to ramp up capital expenditures (say, from tax cuts) may now pause again - waiting to see how the tarriffs play out , before making a move .
it is this indecisiveness that is the kiss of death for growth. Then consumers follow , retrenching demand and then soon we are talking about the Federal Reserve CUTTING rates !
Problem is Trump is way too dumb and stuck in the 80s to realize how global trade works now. The adults have all left (Cohn). Our last best hope is Kudlow , however crankpot he may otherwise be. But look at that article I posted about how even Kudlow was out of the loop on these 100 bn of new tarriffs
we are truly in uncharted territory
Screaming MAGA-heads dont want to understand all this - my hope is someone who is smart and balanced will show up on fox and friends and convince trump to change course a bit.
Irvinecommuter
New member
fortune11 said:
China is not losing the trade war...it would materially undermine their prestige internationally and domestically. The CCP will take the trade war to its grave.
US government serves business interests...in China, business interests serve the government.
nosuchreality
Well-known member
Unfortunately most of the world still operates on the Trump level. Obama was great, polished, educated, refined, and as some say, an adult in the room. That's nice except he's often sitting at a dive bar's table with Pablo Escobar and striking a gentleman's understanding.
nosuchreality said:
When you are a hammer, everything looks like a nail
US assets and US dollar are always at a premium because US has the one thing most of the world doesn't - transparency, accountability and respect for intellectual property rights and law - all backed by military might
Most people have absolutely no idea what policy goes in to lubricate the world economy - very easy to pass sound bites and judgements.
We could have easily imploded in 2011, or 2015 -- but the " gentlemen and ladies" of the world came together to set up currency swap lines for global banks (too much arcane to explain here but can do it offline if anyone wants) that prevented a repeat of 2008 or 1998 - all this was done quietly and behind the scenes - and no one got credit for it.
Soft spoken and ungainly looking policy makers and bureaucrats who don't have silcone-infused model wives on their arms don't draw the same level of attention and don't need to.
What happens if we debase ourselves and stop respecting contracts -- and change policy at whim ? It means the world will get a shock at first but over the longer term , gradually adjust and pivot away from us.
I would have had more faith in this threat-driven negotiating tactic if there was any sort of plan or someone adults around trump to catch him when he went too far . the thing is we don't and that's the reality we have to live with
What we are in right now is unstable equilibrium. You better hope it stays that way and does not tip into chaos. Otherwise all the financial advisors , mortgage brokers and real estate agents may have to downsize from their AMG or M-performance cars into Toyota Camrys (not that there is anything wrong with a Camry
morekaos
Well-known member
The other guy blinked
China's Xi announces plans to 'open' China, including lowering tariffs on imported autos
He discussed plans to further open up the Chinese economy, including "significantly" lowering import tariffs for autos, decreasing duties on other products, enforcing the legal intellectual property of foreign firms and improving the investment environment for international companies.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/09/chinese-president-xi-jinping-speaks-at-boao-forum-for-asia.html
China's Xi announces plans to 'open' China, including lowering tariffs on imported autos
He discussed plans to further open up the Chinese economy, including "significantly" lowering import tariffs for autos, decreasing duties on other products, enforcing the legal intellectual property of foreign firms and improving the investment environment for international companies.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/09/chinese-president-xi-jinping-speaks-at-boao-forum-for-asia.html
