Losses Outside of Irvine

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<p>Holy reality check, Batman!</p>

<p>From ZipRealty:</p>

<p>1310 NORTH CATALPA AVENUE, Anaheim</p>

<p>Bedrooms: 4


Full Baths: 2


Square Feet: 1,584


Lot Size: 6,000 Sq. Ft.


Year Built: 1954


Listing Date: 08/13/07


On Market: 59 days </p>

<p>Last Sale: 05/17/06


Sales Price: $599,000 </p>

<p>Price Reduced: 09/12/07 -- $629,900 to $520,000


Price Reduced: 09/22/07 -- $520,000 to $450,000


Price Reduced: 10/04/07 -- $450,000 to $449,000


Price Reduced: 10/10/07 -- $449,000 to $389,000 </p>

<p>Price/sqft Based on List Price: $246 </p>

<p><a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1051261">http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1051261</a></p>
 
<p>Cayci - GOOD FIND!</p>

<p>I haven't had my morning caffeine yet, but I think it's a <strong>$229,450 loss or 38</strong><strong>% </strong>assuming 5% re commission.</p>

<p><strong>And it <u>STILL</u> hasn't sold.</strong></p>
 
Here's a lovely property in Santa Ana that's 32% off. Too bad I didn't buy it back in 1988 for $4,500





1318 North Spurgeon ST #3

Santa Ana, CA 92701






Price: $165,900


Sales History








<strong>Date</strong>

<strong>Price</strong>

<strong>Appreciation</strong>





03/26/2007

$244,689



3.6%/yr







11/09/2004

$225,000



36.9%/yr







01/22/2004

$175,000



24.7%/yr







05/12/1999

$62,000



>1,000%/yr







09/04/1998

$4,471



-76.2%/yr







04/25/1997

$31,500



-82.9%/yr







09/19/1996

$90,258



0.5%/yr







11/22/1989

$87,500



--



















<a href="http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=659942">http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=659942</a>
 
I'm not quite sure what this property is in La Jolla, but it looks like someone is going to lose more than $3 million.








Price: $1,250,000





Sales History


Date Price


11/01/2004 $4,550,000


10/14/2003 $1,215,000


-





401 BONAIR ST


La Jolla, CA 92037


Beds: 2


Baths: 2.5


Sq. Ft.: 1,620


$/Sq. Ft.: $772


Lot Size: -


Lot: Common Interest


PROPERTY TYPE: Single Family Attached, Condominium


YEAR BUILT: 2007


STORIES: 3 Story


VIEW: Ocean, Other (See Remarks)


SUBDIVISION: Windansea


County: San Diego


MLS#: 066096466


Status: Active


On Redfin: 328 days





<a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=392713">http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=392713</a>
 
ABC123 - i dont think they will be losing 3 million. They probably bought some older building, tore it down, and now built condos there with each unit selling for over $1 million.
 
<p>Another big loser.</p>

Price: $560,000

Last sold 07/19/2006 $680,000

21286 Forest Meadow

Lake Forest, CA 92630

Beds: 4

Baths: 3

Sq. Ft.: 1,644

$/Sq. Ft.: $341

Lot Size: 5,085 sq. ft.

Property Type: Single Family, Detached

Style: Contemporary

Year Built: 1978

Stories: 2 Levels

County: Orange

MLS#: I956392

Status: Active

On Redfin: 1 day

<p> and another</p>

Price: $725,900

Last Sale 10/31/2005 $845,000

Redfin Savings: $14,518*

29822 White Otter LN

Laguna Niguel, CA 92677

Beds: 4

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 2,158

$/Sq. Ft.: $336

Lot Size: 5,000 sq. ft.

Type: Single Family Residence

Style: Other

Year Built: 1979

Stories: One Level

View(s): City Lights, Hills, Mountain, Panoramic

Area: Laguna Niguel West, North of Crown Valley, West of Niguel

County: Orange

MLS#: S508885

Status: Active

On Redfin: 1 day
 
A $160,000 hit, assuming 5% commission.



I am guessing the last sale was the lender taking back the property in a trustee sale, since no flipper would buy a property and try to sell it at a steep lose after only 2 months. I wonder how much did the foreclosed ex-owner pay for this house? Is this a case of home ATM gone bad?



List Price: $675,900

Last Sale: $804,473 (6/18/2007)





6 Sachem WAY

Ladera Ranch, CA 92694



SFR

2,330 sq. ft.

4 beds

lot size: 3,800

year built: 2002

MLS# S500147

days on Redfin: 66







<p> </p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>I'm looking at the one on Gingham in RSM since that 31% loss on a single family home does look significant, but I have to agree with <a href="http://forums.irvinehousingblog.com/account/393/">Daedalus</a> that from a historical perspective it's still not exacly a bargain.</p>

<p>We're looking at an average $90,000 appreciation every year from 1999 until the 2005 sale. That's crazy!</p>

<p>Even backing off to the current asking price of $800,000 it averages out to $46,000+ appreciation a year every year from 1999-2007</p>

<p>Yes it sucks for the 2005 buyer, but how could anyone really believe appreciation rates like that were sustainable?</p>
 
Almost 130,000 with commision

30902 CLUBHOUSE DRIVE #7 J, Laguna Niguel, CA 92677

List Price: $400,000

Last Sale: 11/29/06

Sales Price: $510,000

Bedrooms: 2

Full Baths: 2

Partial Baths: 0

Square Feet: 1,059

Lot Size: N/A

Year Built: 1989

Listing Date: 10/12/07

On Market: 2 days

Type: CONDO/TH

Status: ACTIVE

MLS #: S509244
 
Price: $549,900


last sale 04/20/2005 $617,500


18 Passaflora LN


Mission Viejo, CA 92694


Beds: 3


Baths: 2.5


Sq. Ft.: 2,106


$/Sq. Ft.: $261


Type: Condominium


Style: Contemporary/Modern


Year Built: 2005


Stories: Three or More Levels


Area: Ladera Ranch


County: Orange


MLS#: S508998


Status: Active


On Redfin: 1 day

 
260,000 loss


25332 ADELANTO DRIVE, Laguna Niguel, CA 92677


List Price: $700,000


Last Sale: 03/16/06


Sales Price: $930,000


Bedrooms: 3


Full Baths: 2


Partial Baths: 0


Square Feet: 2,300


Lot Size: 8,500 Sq. Ft.


Year Built: 1974


Listing Date: 10/10/07


On Market: 4 days


Type: SFR


Status: ACTIVE


MLS #: S508921

 
<p>awgee,</p>

<p>I guess I'm new enough to CA real estate that I just can't see that $800,000 price tag as a bargain, even if it is a huge reduction off the original million+ dollar list price, good neighborhood and/or schools notwithstanding.</p>

<p>Say you buy into the industry line that housing is a safe investment that always appreciates over time and you allow for 5% yearly increases, every year, no peaks or valleys, from the sale in 1998 to the present. </p>

<p>Assuming the1998 price of $380,000 was in line with market conditions and neighborhood comps, and allowing my hypothetical 5% appreciation rate; that house on Gingham should be worth roughly $580,000 today. </p>

<p>Even if you allow for 8% yearly increases, it would put the price tag at around $760,000 so still under the current bargain basement, slashed 8 times since April, price of $800,000</p>

<p>IMO allowing for steady price increases of 5%-8% every year is being generous (Of course to be upfront... I don't think any investment, housing included, is a sure thing that is guaranteed to ALWAYS appreciate)</p>

<p>BTW, no personal experience with Wagon Wheel Elementary or Las Flores Middle, but I have it on good authority that if you attend Tesoro High School and DON'T live 'behind the gates' you better have pretty thick skin, so sharing schools with Coto while not actually living there may not necessarily be a positive thing.</p>

<p> </p>
 
Axoim, you forget one variable in your analysis. RATES.





Rates were much higher the late 90s. You must calibrate for the much lower rates currently. We all know that most people don't buy houses with cash, but by borrowing money. If the cost of borrowing is much lower, the price can be higher than avg increase of 5% yoy, and maintain the same affordability.
 
<p>Axiom - Hold on there Babalouie. I never said an $800,000 price tag was a bargain. All I said was that you get the same schools in Wagon Wheel that you do in Coto for much less cost.</p>

<p>My preference for leasing is Wagon Wheel because you get the schools for less monthly. My preference for owning is Coto because you get the extra appreciation, and the security of being behind the gates. Don't get me wrong. I do not think living behind the gates is perfectly secure, but if you look up the Megan's law sites, you will see there are no listed sexual criminals in Coto, but there are a few "outside".</p>

<p>And I would <strong>NEVER</strong> say that so cal re always appreciates. How stupid do you think I am? Well, don't answer that.</p>

<p>I tend to think that if you wait, you will be able to purchase that same home in Wagon Wheel for much less in inflation adjusted dollars, in the future.</p>

<p>Your good authority is pretty good. But, the truth is that your kids have better have a pretty thick skin if they go to Tesoro, even if they do live behind the gates. And the same is true of Troy, CDM, Uni, etc. The only school which shows great performance and doesn't include a high amount of social pressure is Orange County High School of the Arts. And at OCHSA there can still be a large amount of other types of pressure including academics and performing.</p>
 
I posed today on a 2003 rollback in RSM:





<a href="http://www.southoctracker.com/2007/10/rsm-condo-falls-beneath-2003-price.html">http://www.southoctracker.com/2007/10/rsm-condo-falls-beneath-2003-price.html</a>





Some details:





<a href="http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1204066"><strong>8 Mirlo #87</strong>


</a>2 beds, 2 baths, 882 sq ft


<strong>Asking price:</strong> $259,900


<strong>Purchase price:</strong> $298,260


<strong>Purchase date:</strong> 1/30/2007


<strong>Other recent sales history:</strong> 12/8/2005: $352,500


6/30/2004: $315,000


12/24/2003: $260,000


<strong>Listing description:</strong> <em>LOWER CONDO UNIT W/ W/ D HOOK UPS, SMALL PATIO, FIREPLACE, UPDATED KITCHEN W/ NEWER CABINETS. NICE COMPLEX, OVERLOOKS POOL, CARPORT PARKING.


</em><strong>Potential loss (incl 6% selling costs):</strong> $53,954


<strong>Potential % decline from last sale (not incl. selling costs):</strong> 13%


<strong>Potential % decline from peak sale in 2005</strong>: 26%
 
The $159k 1/1 in RSM is <a target="_blank" href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1058954">still on the market</a>, too. I was sure that someone would've snapped it up already.
 
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