Ladera Ranch

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[quote author="SoCal78" date=1240470471][quote author="Sunshine" date=1240466067]Most people? You guess? What is your basis for making such broad-sweeping, speculative, stereotypical statements </blockquote>


What they see on TV / Real Housewives of the OC is the basis. My 23 y.o. nephew just moved out here because he liked what he saw on the Laguna Beach show. Those shows shape people's perceptions. Just my 2 cents.</blockquote>


yep. before the shows there was no "oc". People said they live in MV or Irvine or Fullerton. Now all the inland OC cities have people saying they live in the mythical place that is "Orange County" in an effort to cling to the newport image. Then in order to live up to the image, they over extend themselves and pretend they are something they are not. Of course it's not everyone but to say there isn't a lot of materialism and living above means in the inland OC cities (especially the southern ones) is a bit disingenuous.
 
</blockquote> Of course it's not everyone but to say there isn't a lot of materialism and living above means in the inland OC cities (especially the southern ones) is a bit disingenuous.</blockquote>


I don't disagree that many in OC are living above their means. My point was that it's a macro issue, and IMO, isn't appropriately directed toward any one OC city (or unincorporated area) in order to draw the conclusion that such OC location is therefore not a good place to raise children.
 
If Ladera is full of people living well beyond their means then it's only a matter of time before the bloodbath hits. I'm sure part of the bloodbath that has started is partly b/c of this lifestyle that many are living, but I suppose there are many still holding on for dear life. I think it would be interesting to check out property tax payments for Ladera Ranch. How many are late? Perhaps there are good reasons for being late, but not many. LR has been hit so hard and a part of me wonders how it could go down further. I can't help but think it will though-- rising unemployment, high HOAs, bad OC economy, and many more households who are going to finally lose the grip on their home and finances in the coming years.



I don't know that Ladera has more "phonys" than the rest of the OC. But why does it SEEM that way?
 
Personally, the rediclously high HOA's are why I haven't purchased in Ladera. Yeah, it's cookie cutter and not that convenient traffic wise, but it's still no Santa Ana.



There were a couple places in Covenant Hills that were close to $1,000 a month for HOA's. Work that into your affordability model and you're not getting much bang for your buck.
 
The Covenant Hills HOAs are RIDICULOUS. Plain and simple. I know of people who live in Avendale and they pay about $200 a month. Granted, $200 is a fair amount of change, BUT.... you have access to many pools, tennis courts, and other amenities. Additionally, the grounds throughout Ladera are meticulously kept. I think $200 is more than fair for what you get (certainly better than most condo hoas). But close to $1000/month all for a stupid gate??? NO THANK YOU. Not worth it. Of course, to many living in CH, the mere name "Covenant Hills" is enough for them to shell out that money. Ludicrous to me, but I suppose that backs up the "image-obsessed" claim that exists in Ladera.



As for cookie-cutter.... I find Ladera to be refreshingly unique-looking. Sure, it is a tract development and you can't completely get away from that look, but kudos to the developers for really trying to make the place look original. I love the downtown part and the fact that it's within walking distance to MOST homes there is super. The parks, pools, clubhouses, etc. are all wonderful. Hate the powerlines and traffic on Crown Valley is a nightmare. But what place is truly perfect? Well, maybe a beachfront home in Laguna, but not many of us can afford that :)



Having said all these nice things about LR, I still contend it will continue to go down for several more years.
 
I think the $1000 per month HOA is for 1 specific attached townhome project that had a bunch of extra/unnecessary services like concierege, etc. I think the typical Covenant Hills HOA is $400 per month. The rest of Ladera's HOA is $190 to $200 per month. So the extra fee for just being behind the Covenant Hills gate is $200 per month. Covenant also has higher Mello Roos than the rest of Ladera.



If I were looking in Ladera right now I wouldn't pick Covenant anyway. It has extra HOA. It has higher Mello Roos. There is going to be construction going on for the next 10 years on all of those unfinished custom lots. It is not walking distance to the 2 shopping centers like most of the rest of Ladera is. And kids there go to the new San Juan Hills high school - the north half of Ladera goes to Tesoro, which is a much better school.
 
[quote author="Joe33" date=1240536397]I think the $1000 per month HOA is for 1 specific attached townhome project that had a bunch of extra/unnecessary services like concierege, etc. I think the typical Covenant Hills HOA is $400 per month. The rest of Ladera's HOA is $190 to $200 per month. So the extra fee for just being behind the Covenant Hills gate is $200 per month. Covenant also has higher Mello Roos than the rest of Ladera.



If I were looking in Ladera right now I wouldn't pick Covenant anyway. It has extra HOA. It has higher Mello Roos. There is going to be construction going on for the next 10 years on all of those unfinished custom lots. It is not walking distance to the 2 shopping centers like most of the rest of Ladera is. And kids there go to the new San Juan Hills high school - the north half of Ladera goes to Tesoro, which is a much better school.</blockquote>


That's interesting to know about the CH HOAs. And I agree with everything you say. I would never buy in CH either. I don't see the upside for all the extra $ you have to spend. My friends who live in Avendale say the big draw is the gate. WHO CARES?! (sorry, my opinion only) The San Juan Hills High School vs. Tesoro factor is huge also (and something I didn't think of). I haven't heard good things about SJHHS. I think Avendale, Oak Knoll and Flintridge are all great.... established, more mature trees, walking distance to town centers, etc..



When I look at homes in those neighborhoods in the 3000 sq ft range they seem to be listed anywhere from 700K to 1.3K. It's crazy. Why the discrepancy? Are realtors just being dishonest with their clients? Are there really some 3000sqft homes worth 1.2K and others worth only 700K? Seems weird to me. I know lot-size and location can affect a price in that town a lot, but this range has been nuts to see.



Personally, if I could get a 3000 sqft home in a good neighborhood in LR for 500-600K, I'd go for it.
 
[quote author="not a realtor" date=1240471311][quote author="SoCal78" date=1240470471][quote author="Sunshine" date=1240466067]Most people? You guess? What is your basis for making such broad-sweeping, speculative, stereotypical statements </blockquote>


What they see on TV / Real Housewives of the OC is the basis. My 23 y.o. nephew just moved out here because he liked what he saw on the Laguna Beach show. Those shows shape people's perceptions. Just my 2 cents.</blockquote>


yep. before the shows there was no "oc". People said they live in MV or Irvine or Fullerton. Now all the inland OC cities have people saying they live in the mythical place that is "Orange County" in an effort to cling to the newport image. Then in order to live up to the image, they over extend themselves and pretend they are something they are not. Of course it's not everyone but to say there isn't a lot of materialism and living above means in the inland OC cities (especially the southern ones) is a bit disingenuous.</blockquote>


By the way, median household income in Ladera is $88K. Median household income in Newport Beach is $107K. With only a $19K difference in median income, which community seems to be living beyond its means? Newport Beach invented living beyond its means.
 
[quote author="Joe33" date=1240553226]By the way, median household income in Ladera is $88K. Median household income in Newport Beach is $107K. With only a $19K difference in median income, which community seems to be living beyond its means? Newport Beach invented living beyond its means.</blockquote>


That is a bad data comparison. NB nearly 50% rentals, whereas Ladera is mostly owner occupied. Even when factoring in those adjustments, Ladera has about 20 times as many foreclosures as NB does. The foreclosure stats prove that the majority of Ladera residents lived beyond their means. The foreclosures there are only topped by Santa Ana, Anaheim, and Lake Forest.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1240554525][quote author="Joe33" date=1240553226]By the way, median household income in Ladera is $88K. Median household income in Newport Beach is $107K. With only a $19K difference in median income, which community seems to be living beyond its means? Newport Beach invented living beyond its means.</blockquote>


That is a bad data comparison. NB nearly 50% rentals, whereas Ladera is mostly owner occupied. Even when factoring in those adjustments, Ladera has about 20 times as many foreclosures as NB does. The foreclosure stats prove that the majority of Ladera residents lived beyond their means. The foreclosures there are only topped by Santa Ana, Anaheim, and Lake Forest.</blockquote>


plus places with real wealth don't necessarily have high incomes. That said, newport is probably living above its means too. All of OC is probably with the exception of more established areas like Yorba Linda, etc.
 
I have been living in LR for the past 6 years (renting from friend) and I love it here, but it is pretty damn far from Irvine, which is where I work. I have been looking on Redfin and see a lot of really good prices- however they are all shortsales. Are these prices legit? For example, this <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Ladera-Ranch/15-Arlington-St-92694/home/7218839">place</a> here is listed at 365K but last sold for 595K? I see a lot of houses short selling for over 150K off their original purchase price. Can anyone explain to me exactly how a short sale works? Are the low prices used to attract people into a bidding war?
 
I believe they need to generate some offers before they go to the bank for approval. So while they may get an offer of their list price......or even higher than list, that does not mean the bank will approve it.



I know a few people that are in that stage where they got some offers (most under list) and they took the highest ones to the bank and are waiting on their approval or not.
 
Are we expecting a huge bloodbath in the coming years in Ladera? I mean, things have already gotten pretty bad there. But I don't see how they could avoid further serious depreciation because of rising unemployment, significant #s of residents living well beyond their means, large numbers of ARMs due to reset in the next 2 years.... How does LR avoid further SIGNIFICANT depreciation? I just don't see it! I am not bashing the place. Rather I am speaking selfishly here. I'd love the chance to buy a 3000 sq footer with a nice yard for 500-600K. I do think that would be a deal. Question is.... will it get that low?????
 
[quote author="ScubaSteve" date=1240612437]I have been living in LR for the past 6 years (renting from friend) and I love it here, but it is pretty damn far from Irvine, which is where I work. I have been looking on Redfin and see a lot of really good prices- however they are all shortsales. Are these prices legit? For example, this <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Ladera-Ranch/15-Arlington-St-92694/home/7218839">place</a> here is listed at 365K but last sold for 595K? I see a lot of houses short selling for over 150K off their original purchase price. Can anyone explain to me exactly how a short sale works? Are the low prices used to attract people into a bidding war?</blockquote>


The bank may be willing to accept an offer for the amount listed or it may not. There is no way to know. And in some ways it is irrelevant. What is more relevant is what is the property worth to you? Each short sale is different. The one commonality is that all short sale offers must be accepted by the bank, and that approval can take awhile. And each bank's short sale policy can change from one day to the next.
 
[quote author="butterflymama" date=1240617409]Are we expecting a huge bloodbath in the coming years in Ladera? I mean, things have already gotten pretty bad there. But I don't see how they could avoid further serious depreciation because of rising unemployment, significant #s of residents living well beyond their means, large numbers of ARMs due to reset in the next 2 years.... How does LR avoid further SIGNIFICANT depreciation? I just don't see it! I am not bashing the place. Rather I am speaking selfishly here. I'd love the chance to buy a 3000 sq footer with a nice yard for 500-600K. I do think that would be a deal. Question is.... will it get that low?????</blockquote>


ARM resets aren't necessarily a bad thing. If its not sub-prime or option arm then a reset would give a significant discount as of today. I know 5 families that live in LR, and 3 of them have 5 years ARMs that are due to reset. They are not refinancing because they're looking at a 4% rate after the reset. Also, many people have ARMs throughout their mortgage and just let them float year to year.



All I mean is that ARM reset does NOT equal imminent foreclosure. Some will, some won't. On the other hand, interest only payments that get stopped at the 7 or 10 year mark, leaving a fully amortized 20 year balance will give a big price jump. The two year option ARMs are already reset and those foreclosures are on the market. IO loans will have a modest bump.
 
[quote author="Goofy" date=1240620010][quote author="butterflymama" date=1240617409]Are we expecting a huge bloodbath in the coming years in Ladera? I mean, things have already gotten pretty bad there. But I don't see how they could avoid further serious depreciation because of rising unemployment, significant #s of residents living well beyond their means, large numbers of ARMs due to reset in the next 2 years.... How does LR avoid further SIGNIFICANT depreciation? I just don't see it! I am not bashing the place. Rather I am speaking selfishly here. I'd love the chance to buy a 3000 sq footer with a nice yard for 500-600K. I do think that would be a deal. Question is.... will it get that low?????</blockquote>


ARM resets aren't necessarily a bad thing. If its not sub-prime or option arm then a reset would give a significant discount as of today. I know 5 families that live in LR, and 3 of them have 5 years ARMs that are due to reset. They are not refinancing because they're looking at a 4% rate after the reset. Also, many people have ARMs throughout their mortgage and just let them float year to year.



All I mean is that ARM reset does NOT equal imminent foreclosure. Some will, some won't. On the other hand, interest only payments that get stopped at the 7 or 10 year mark, leaving a fully amortized 20 year balance will give a big price jump. The two year option ARMs are already reset and those foreclosures are on the market. IO loans will have a modest bump.</blockquote>


I definitely agree with what you said. However, what I hear from many who live there is that there is a large number of people in LR who stretched BIG TIME to get in and won't be able to handle their mortgage after the re-set. So, you're right in that resets don't necessarily = bad. But.... in Ladera? I don't know if that will be the case. But really-- what do I know? I'm asking :)
 
Some will re<strong>CAST</strong> in addition to resetting, and the result will be ugly no matter if the interest rate lowers or raises.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1240620646]Some will re<strong>CAST</strong> in addition to resetting, and the result will be ugly no matter if the interest rate lowers or raises.</blockquote>


It is my understanding that only option pay loans will recast. A 5/1 type loan will just adjust. The option pay loans ceased in 2007 and almost always have a two year schedule so those are pretty much done as of now, with the bulk of them in 2008.



I'm not trying to be "Captain Save a Ho(od)", but LR is a pretty nice area and the people that "I KNOW" are just normal folk that are a little stretched. The hummer driving real estate investors foreclosed a while ago, and the mom n pops are left with their toddlers and big house payments. The new post-foreclosure replacements in the neighborhoods seems to be nice as well. Its really neighborhood dependent. CH being the epicenter of obnoxious Real Housewives OC wannabe's, but there are some nice homes.
 
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