Is Tustin Fields getting killed?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Just popped onto Redfin recently and whoa...so many houses listed for sale in such a tiny community and most within the last month or 2!





Plus, many of the homes are listed at prices that are considerably less than their purchase price a year or two ago, when home prices peaked. Some homes are 20% or more, I think....still overpriced, but still!





Are the majority of the folks in Tustin Fields underwater?





IR: will you do any profiles on the wreckage that this neighborhood is turning out to be?
 
Is there something wrong with tustin fields? A lot of houses in Irvine have gone into escrow recently and tustin fields is in the irv school district so I would have thought the price would hold but noone is buying. People have mentioned the train being an issue but in Tustin fields 2 you can hardly hear it.





We were very close to buying 3200sq ft house in there for the bargain price of $850K but didn't make the offer in the end since it backs onto the road that leads into the airbase and could get busy in the future
 
<p>That's one of the big problems with TF stuff it. Everything backs to Jambo/Peters Canyon, Harvard, Edinger, or Moffett. Just not that many interior places. Most of the sales and for sales are on the perimeter. People don't buy backing to busy streets in a buyers market. They can afford to wait and be picky.</p>

<p>I was in escrow on one of the interior places there, 2950sf, and got spooked. We were in an $945K in August 2007. That place is probably worth $800-825K today. Yikes!</p>

<p>Yes, you can hear the train quite clearly. It's loud even down in Columbus Grove...</p>
 
So basically, if I'm hearing correctly, is that if you bought in Tustin Fields brand new in 2005/2006, you're now screwed if you need to sell.





There are some mighty big houses in there, although my wife didn't like the looks of the homes or neighborhood.
 
I haven't been profiling these because they are in Tustin, but it isn't a stretch to see this is the future of house prices in the rest of Irvine.
 
<p>"So basically, if I'm hearing correctly, is that if you bought in Tustin Fields brand new in 2005/2006, you're now screwed if you need to sell."</p>

<p>Indeed, that is exactly correct. Many bank-owned properties up for sale right now there. A number of REOs helped started the downward price slide. Some poor fools spent $1.2M on 3200sf homes there that are worth $875K today. </p>
 
<p>"I haven't been profiling these because they are in Tustin, but it isn't a stretch to see this is the future of house prices in the rest of Irvine. "</p>

<p>One part of Irvine is already right there with TF:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1523599">http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1523599</a></p>

<p>Notice they didn't even put up window coverings... Can you say specuvestor?! These people are down 27%, over $300K, if they get list. This one has the power lines along Warner practically right overhead and the trash place just a few short blocks away.</p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>Yeah, to see an Alexandria model at CG listed sub $900K, wow... Bound to happen since a bank owned one just like this plan on Desert Willow just sold for $910K and that was located much better, i.e. no power lines above and not on Harvard.</p>

<p>Here's a juicy drop in TF:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1531531">http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1531531</a></p>

<p>Paid $1.07M and put some bucks into landscaping, perhaps $40K I'd say. All-in cost of over $1.1M and will likely sell at $825-850K. This is a 30% loser after commissions... </p>
 
IR, if you are going to profile honey locust, you may want to include this one:





<a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1524675">www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing</a>





Went on at the same time for 200K more for a similar house
 
<p>Oh my, assessed value $1.237M on that Desert Willow property and it backs to Harvard. Wowzer. Current value based on REO comp just down the street is $875-900K. After commissions it would be a $400K loss! </p>
 
<p>About a year ago I wrote about the branding of a community and compared it to the Irvine Villages. The promotional aspect and marketing a brand is extremely important. People want expensive brand for a cheap price. Expensive brands are never on sale. When an expensive brand has a sale of 5% a line is formed out the door. Louis Vuitton, Gucci, and Chanel stores at South Coast Plaza are the examples. A little discount of an excellent brand could get the consumer excited vs the weekly sale over at Walmart.</p>

<p>There is a brand perception difference for Tustin Field and Irvine Villages. The word “field” subliminally conjured images in my head of a place of tents for temporary holding of refugees and concentration camp for political prisoners (Japanese American during WWII). Residents of Tustin Field are not proud of the place that they live in because I seldom heard them mentioning “I live in Tustin Field”. This thread could be called the Killing Fields like the movie from the 80’s about Cambodian refugees. Slashing prices would attract the first wave of the knife catchers. Further slashing of prices turns the first wave of knife catchers into angry home homeowners. Vultures are waiting for the weak and bleeding homeowners before going in for the kill. </p>

<p>When Aliso Viejo started in the 80’s developer were hoping that it can become the expensive neighbor to Laguna Beach since it is practically located on the other side of the hills. Shoppers can sense quality when they see it. Now that Aliso Viejo is built out after 28 years there is not much to show for. The element of prestige is not there. Prestige is not by adding fake stones to the neighborhood sign with gold letters. It takes good design with restraints. </p>

<p>Tustin Fields and the surrounding area are excellent locations with good schools, shopping, and freeway access. However, the formula is not complete when it is missing the element of prestige. Flight path, train noise, and land toxicity may have also contributed a negative effect on the quality perception. Bargain shoppers care about the brands just as much as the wealthy shoppers. I drove through the Tustin Airbase neighborhoods and they reminded me the infancy of Aliso Viejo. I do not think the design and its infrastructure would age gracefully into a classic community that can stand the test of time. I have case studied classic neighborhoods of America and I have not seen one yet survived near the landing strip of a flight path. </p>

<p>Once the brand is ruined it is hard for its recovery. I think home buyers are willing to pay more to live in a Irvine Village knowing that the comp is less likely to erode. In the case of Tustin Fields Lennar has shut down many of their divisions due to financial strain and the goal is to flee like a war torn country where the government is the first one to bail out and leaving the people to defend for themselves.</p>
 
Lennar is the master developer for all the community infrastructure. Builders like JL and Lyon bought parcels from Lennar. Similar to TIC operation where the master mind is TIC while builders developed various parcels but TIC is there to insure quality and aesthetic. Lennar does not have this capability of enforcement. Many builders will cut corner if the master developer is weak in enforcement and lacking grand vision.
 
One other thing to keep in mind re Tustin Field is that the perimeter houses (at least in TF 1, I believe), which back to the streets and the canyon, etc., all face a centrally located section of the development that includes "Affordable Housing." That is most likely severely affecting value on these homes. We were seriously considering buying a fully loaded/upgraded model there at a decent price as our "in between home" (before we're able to move to a bigger house in Irvine in 10 years or so), until we learned about the affordable housing. That made it an easy no, because for an in-between home, built-in resale value is very important.
 
<p>Gil,</p>

<p>The perception of brand and status is the preference for all segment of homeshoppers. Homeowners feel that the poors will degrade the neighborhood and ghetto friends will park their non Lexus car in front of MY HOUSE. It is all about prestige and class. I know this sound rude and politically incorrect but it is the reality.</p>
 
<p>Ipop,</p>

<p>When Lennar was active projects were developed so-so quality. Now that Lennar is not all that interested because the people who started the Tustin projects are no longer with the company and where do you think the future of Tustin Legacy and adjacencies will end up. Recently, Wickes slashed prices to get out of the furniture business. Will Lennar do the same to phase out of the neighborhood?</p>
 
bkshopr just hit the nail on the head...



another reason to buy Irvine company communities.



I think IR will love the Irvine company once he becomes a homeowner in an Irvine Company village! haha
 
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