Is the California (Irvine) Market Ahead of the US Market?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1224913075][quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1224912070]Again, it is OK to be a renter, but you can't speak for homeowners unless you are already one.</blockquote>
I am a Irvine home owner... and I regret my decision to buy while the prices were over-inflated.



Even though I can afford the home I am currently in and selling right now would be basically throwing almost my entire down payment away... it would be better (for me) to save that extra $xxk a year renting a nicer home and then when the prices are low enough... I can buy a nicer home for less than what my current loan is.



It's speculation of course... but based on where the market is, income, credit and loan affordability... it's not that hard to take this risk. Of course... people will always buy for whatever reason they have (I mean I bought like an idiot when prices were already too high)... but if you can wait and rent for less... wouldn't that be a better choice?</blockquote>


We all can have a syndrome called "buyer's remorse". I just hoped that when you bought your home, you didn't expect to get rich overnight. People who bought a home in 1992, 93 and 94 suffered the same regrets as you have now, but most people got their money back after 2000. I am glad you have the staying power. To make yourself feel better, think of those unfortunate people who just lost their life savings in stock market or squandered their money in "toys". You avoid all these mistakes because your money is in a safer place: real estate.
 
[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1224914996][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1224913075][quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1224912070]Again, it is OK to be a renter, but you can't speak for homeowners unless you are already one.</blockquote>
I am a Irvine home owner... and I regret my decision to buy while the prices were over-inflated.



Even though I can afford the home I am currently in and selling right now would be basically throwing almost my entire down payment away... it would be better (for me) to save that extra $xxk a year renting a nicer home and then when the prices are low enough... I can buy a nicer home for less than what my current loan is.



It's speculation of course... but based on where the market is, income, credit and loan affordability... it's not that hard to take this risk. Of course... people will always buy for whatever reason they have (I mean I bought like an idiot when prices were already too high)... but if you can wait and rent for less... wouldn't that be a better choice?</blockquote>


We all can have a syndrome called "buyer's remorse". I just hoped that when you bought your home, you didn't expect to get rich overnight. People who bought a home in 1992, 93 and 94 suffered the same regrets as you have now, but most people got their money back after 2000. I am glad you have the staying power. To make yourself feel better, think of those unfortunate people who just lost their life savings in stock market or squandered their money in "toys". You avoid all these mistakes because your money is in a safer place: real estate.</blockquote>


Safer place? or illiquid?
 
[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1224913723] A broken clock will tell the right time twice a day. That is why I don't believe in forcast. There are so many uncertainties out there. </blockquote>


Not to oversimplify... but... if you throw a ball up in the air, do you believe there is only a partial chance it will come back down? (I guess there is another option. Refer to my avatar.)
 
[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1224912070]It would extremely difficult to prove that 453 new property owners who bought homes in Irvine over last 3 months were wrong in their decision makings. These people happen to make steady higher income, save enough money for down-payment, have good credits to qualify for a loan. Some of these buyers actually pay all cash. Now it is absurd to judge other people without first knowing their financial situations and personal expectations. Now who is more credible and successful? Someone is sitting on the couch day dreaming, or someone actually went out kicking tires and made his dream a reality? Again, it is OK to be a renter, but you can't speak for homeowners unless you are already one.</blockquote>


Uh actually, it is pretty easy to determine if they made bad decisions. All we have to do revisit these purchases next year and see how much money they could have SAVED if they had been "Informed". Even the NAHB is predicting an outright 5% decline in home price nationally next year. I think it is safe to say that the majority of this forecasted decline in prices, from this optimistic estimate, will be felt in sunbelt regions (CA, NV, AZ, FL, all the previous high fliers).
 
[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1224913723]I respect your choice. I wish I could time the market.</blockquote>


I'm sorry you don't have the education in economics to understand how the statistics and trends give you the ability to time the market. I really feel sorry for you. There are many stats that historically have shown and proven to be correct every housing cycle.



<blockquote>I wish people didn't trade (or treat) real estate as stock for short-term profit. Even Greenspan admitted days ago he could be wrong 40% of time forecasting the market. A broken clock will tell the right time twice a day. That is why I don't believe in forcast.</blockquote>


Greenspan failed in so many ways as the Fed chief it is deplorable. Prior to being Fed chief, he was a failed economic forecasting businessman. It is easy to see how he is a broken clock, but what is funny is not recognizing the broken clock when it is staring right back at you.



<blockquote>There are so many uncertainties out there. As far as local market is concerned, I might disagree with most people's assessment. I am still waiting to see a coherent analysis of supply/demand in Irvine market from anyone here. All I see is supply-side speculation. In my view, it is a TRUE denial of the fact that affordability has come back to the market. That is why Irvine has about only 4 months inventory. This is a fact, and you know for certain for the last 12 months, we have had a heathy balance of supply and demand.</blockquote>


I find it funny that the one who provides the stats, says that he doesn't rely on stats. Then, goes on to state that one stat, months of inventory, is a fact that the Irvine market has a healthy balance of supply and demand. All the while ignoring the fact that pending sales have remained stable, and yet units sold have fallen off a cliff. Awgee was right, you should change your moniker, but I think the more appropriate choice would be uninformed_contradictions.



We have shown you many times over how there is a bunch of shadow inventory out there. But, just as you like to only see one stat that is good and ignore the rest, you ignore the factual and coherent analysis of foreclosures from many of the posters here. You keep the rose colored glasses on, and we will continue to see the bigger picture. The track record of the IHBer's who see and recognize the bigger picture have proven to be very correct over the last few years, and it looks like we will continue to be correct. Maybe if you showed some respect to the posters here, and open your mind a bit, then you might not be attacked like you do every time you post so many contradicting points.



Since reading how there is a shadow inventory and a foreclosure problem in Irvine hasn't sunk in for you, then maybe a picture will be easier for you to understand. Here are the NODs, NTSs, and REOs, posted in the foreclosure thread (a thread that you still obviously haven't read in its entirety, if at all) by the very respected IHBer IrvineRealtor from Foreclosure Radar.



http://irvinerealtorsite.com/irvineforeclosures1021.JPG



Ignorance is bliss!
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1224914560]BTW, everyone, please be nice to ID. It is nice to have a bull around.</blockquote>


For the record, I am neither a bull nor a bear. I am a realist.



To illustrate my point: I bought my first home in Irvine in Spring 2003, mentally prepared that it would drop 20% in price. I bought it for my growing family and the best schools, I didn't look to make a quick profit. I still hold it today as rental ($4500 monthly gross rent, compared to $478K original price). I jumped the gun last Nov to buy a forelclosure as primary residence (monthly mortgage payment approx $2300, with close to $499 in principal). I knew it might not be the lowest price yet, but I were able to get finaced then at 5.25% fixed 30 years.)



If I waited till I see every thing clearly, I would not have accomplished any of the above. Many people fail to appreciate opportunity costs, which is difficult to quantify. There are always risks when buying in a turbulent market. Without risks, so gone opportunities.



As a real estate professional, I don't make forecast, I only focus on finding today's best deals with a safety margin to hedge against future price erosion. Most people I work with are educated and well informed with realistic expectations. They have their own needs and priorities, my job is to help them balance and facilitate them.



National and state statitics does matter to me, but not as important as local market trends. As someone who is active in the market, I naturally see things other don't see. I calls these empirical data and gut feel. However, you don't have to take my words for it. These won't be relevant to you unless you enter the market.
 
[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1224917709][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1224914560]BTW, everyone, please be nice to ID. It is nice to have a bull around.</blockquote>


As a <strong>real estate professional</strong>, I don't make forecast, I only focus on finding today's best deals with a safety margin to hedge against future price erosion.

</blockquote>
This says it all.
 
[quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1224917992][quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1224917709][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1224914560]BTW, everyone, please be nice to ID. It is nice to have a bull around.</blockquote>


As a <strong>real estate professional</strong>, I don't make forecast, I only focus on finding today's best deals with a safety margin to hedge against future price erosion.

</blockquote>
This says it all.</blockquote>


<strong>You are not on my list, and you never will. </strong> Most people I work with are educated and well informed with realistic expectations. They have their own needs and priorities, my job is to help them balance and facilitate them.



I take pride in helping people save money, reduce tax and build long-term equity. I don't waste time with people who doesn't need my help. And I value my precious time so much that I won't engage in attacks like you do. I believe you are entitled to your own view. So does everyone here!
 
[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1224917709]As someone who is active in the market, I naturally see things other don't see. I calls these empirical data and gut feel. However, you don't have to take my words for it. These won't be relevant to you unless you enter the market.</blockquote>


I am confused by this statement. Do you mean because you are a real estate broker that you are active in the market, and know more than me or anyone else here? Aside from that being arrogant and obviously ignorant of the knowledge of posters like me and many others here, it makes it even more arrogant and ignorant when the MLS stats show you are not very active in the market at all.



Or, do you mean because you are a property owner, and arrogantly and ignorantly assume that everyone here are not owners or have never been owners, that you have a superior knowledge of the RE market? Because, I will happily sell you my home for more than its current market in a few years, or even longer say five years. Hell, I will sell it to you today for its 2006 price.



Again, ignorance is bliss!
 
[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1224918761][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1224917992][quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1224917709][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1224914560]BTW, everyone, please be nice to ID. It is nice to have a bull around.</blockquote>


As a <strong>real estate professional</strong>, I don't make forecast, I only focus on finding today's best deals with a safety margin to hedge against future price erosion.

</blockquote>
This says it all.</blockquote>


<strong>You are not on my list, and you never will. </strong> Most people I work with are educated and well informed with realistic expectations. They have their own needs and priorities, my job is to help them balance and facilitate them.



I take pride in helping people save money, reduce tax and build long-term equity. I don't waste time with people who doesn't need my help. And I value my precious time so much that I won't engage in attacks like you do. I believe you are entitled to your own view. So does everyone here!</blockquote>


ID says: Doh! Lost another one to IR2!
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1224919367][quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1224917709]As someone who is active in the market, I naturally see things other don't see. I calls these empirical data and gut feel. However, you don't have to take my words for it. These won't be relevant to you unless you enter the market.</blockquote>


I am confused by this statement. Do you mean because you are a real estate broker that you are active in the market, and know more than me or anyone else here? Aside from that being arrogant and obviously ignorant of the knowledge of posters like me and many others here, it makes it even more arrogant and ignorant when the MLS stats show you are not very active in the market at all.



Or, do you mean because you are a property owner, and arrogantly and ignorantly assume that everyone here are not owners or have never been owners, that you have a superior knowledge of the RE market? Because, I will happily sell you my home for more than its current market in a few years, or even longer say five years. Hell, I will sell it to you today for its 2006 price.



Again, ignorance is bliss!</blockquote>


Graphix, the less assumptions you make, the better. Again, you can't judge others with your self-rightousness. As a moderator of this forum, you disappoint me!!! You rather have one voice here, you can't seem to tolerate other views.
 
[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1224913723] I am still waiting to see a coherent analysis of supply/demand in Irvine market from anyone here. All I see is supply-side speculation. </blockquote>


Stop waiting and start reading. I do not think you realize that we have all heard your real estates sales horse manure and have thoroughly and completely shown it for the lies that it is. Go back a year or more in the posts and start reading if you can handle the truth.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1224914560]BTW, everyone, please be nice to ID. It is nice to have a bull around.</blockquote>Bullishness is great. Bullshit is boring.
 
[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1224919962][quote author="graphrix" date=1224919367][quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1224917709]As someone who is active in the market, I naturally see things other don't see. I calls these empirical data and gut feel. However, you don't have to take my words for it. These won't be relevant to you unless you enter the market.</blockquote>


I am confused by this statement. Do you mean because you are a real estate broker that you are active in the market, and know more than me or anyone else here? Aside from that being arrogant and obviously ignorant of the knowledge of posters like me and many others here, it makes it even more arrogant and ignorant when the MLS stats show you are not very active in the market at all.



Or, do you mean because you are a property owner, and arrogantly and ignorantly assume that everyone here are not owners or have never been owners, that you have a superior knowledge of the RE market? Because, I will happily sell you my home for more than its current market in a few years, or even longer say five years. Hell, I will sell it to you today for its 2006 price.



Again, ignorance is bliss!</blockquote>


Graphix, the less assumptions you make, the better. Again, you can't judge others with your self-rightousness. As a moderator of this forum, you disappoint me!!! You rather have one voice here, you can't seem to tolerate other views.</blockquote>


So... are you going to answer my questions or not? Not answering my questions is disappointing. Having a different view is great, but you fail to see your own ignorance and arrogance in making assumptions, as I clearly pointed out, especially when you avoid answering my questions.
 
[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1224914996][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1224913075][quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1224912070]Again, it is OK to be a renter, but you can't speak for homeowners unless you are already one.</blockquote>
I am a Irvine home owner... and I regret my decision to buy while the prices were over-inflated.



Even though I can afford the home I am currently in and selling right now would be basically throwing almost my entire down payment away... it would be better (for me) to save that extra $xxk a year renting a nicer home and then when the prices are low enough... I can buy a nicer home for less than what my current loan is.



It's speculation of course... but based on where the market is, income, credit and loan affordability... it's not that hard to take this risk. Of course... people will always buy for whatever reason they have (I mean I bought like an idiot when prices were already too high)... but if you can wait and rent for less... wouldn't that be a better choice?</blockquote>


We all can have a syndrome called "buyer's remorse". I just hoped that when you bought your home, you didn't expect to get rich overnight. People who bought a home in 1992, 93 and 94 suffered the same regrets as you have now, but most people got their money back after 2000. I am glad you have the staying power. To make yourself feel better, think of those unfortunate people who just lost their life savings in stock market or squandered their money in "toys". You avoid all these mistakes because your money is in a safer place: real estate.</blockquote>
Wow... did I just get Kung Fu Hustled?



You know that scene where Stephen Chow is in the village and he says he'll fight anyone and then proceeds to pick who he feels are the weaker opponents and then when they stand up he changes his mind because they are either taller or more muscular than he thought?



What I don't feel better about is that I should have gotten over the stigma of renting during this price run-up since the difference was so wide that I could have probably saved over $200k in the last 3 years renting a similar house to what I currently own. And what about those unfortunate people who squandered their life savings in real estate and either can't afford the payments now and are homeless or squeezing just to make payments on a house that's worth less than their loan?



The difference between now and the early 90's cycle is our peak was abnormal, fueled by exotic loans and creative financing... unless people start quadrupuling their income... it's going to be a long time before we hit 2006 prices again (in my owner-ish opinion).
 
[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1224914996][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1224913075][quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1224912070]Again, it is OK to be a renter, but you can't speak for homeowners unless you are already one.</blockquote>
I am a Irvine home owner... and I regret my decision to buy while the prices were over-inflated.



Even though I can afford the home I am currently in and selling right now would be basically throwing almost my entire down payment away... it would be better (for me) to save that extra $xxk a year renting a nicer home and then when the prices are low enough... I can buy a nicer home for less than what my current loan is.



It's speculation of course... but based on where the market is, income, credit and loan affordability... it's not that hard to take this risk. Of course... people will always buy for whatever reason they have (I mean I bought like an idiot when prices were already too high)... but if you can wait and rent for less... wouldn't that be a better choice?</blockquote>


We all can have a syndrome called "buyer's remorse". I just hoped that when you bought your home, you didn't expect to get rich overnight. People who bought a home in 1992, 93 and 94 suffered the same regrets as you have now, but most people got their money back after 2000. I am glad you have the staying power. To make yourself feel better, think of those unfortunate people who just lost their life savings in stock market or squandered their money in "toys". You avoid all these mistakes because your money is in a safer place: real estate.</blockquote>


I was a home owner until 2005. We took our profits, invested, and have doubled our investments. Stop spewing your nonsense sales jargon and start listening. He did not have buyers remorse. He told you the way it is, but you will not listen to anything but that what you want to hear. Do you realize just how disingenuous and condescending it is to tell irvine home owner that he does not know his own situation and you know better?



Deuce, can you see why agents have such a bad rep? It is agents like this guy who give your occupation a bad name. The NAR really needs to get rid of the bad apples and enforce some ethics.
 
[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1224918761]

You are not on my list, and you never will. </blockquote>


Count your blessing WestparkRenter. Count me as one of the ignorant and misinformed. Instead of buying and being mentally prepared to lose 20%, I sold and and enjoying making 100%.
 
"So... are you going to answer my questions or not? Not answering my questions is disappointing. Having a different view is great, but you fail to see your own ignorance and arrogance in making assumptions, as I clearly pointed out, especially when you avoid answering my questions.</blockquote>"



Graphrix, admit it. We have two different ideologies. When looking at a half-filled water glass, I see it half-full, while you see it half-empty, you even attempt to devise trickery ways to measure it. What is the use answering your questions while you don't seem to at least appreciate other's view? So my answer is NO.



The only thing I can say is I respect your convictions, however I can't appreciate the way you and other buddies treat different viewpoints. For your health sake, calm down and let it be. You and I are not here to fight to save the world, or whatever is in your mind.
 
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