Irvine home values up 36% in 5 years: How?s that rank nationally?

[irvinehomeowner]

Look one flaw with your method of demanding listing histories is that nobody values real estate that way.  There is a thing called comparable sales that allows agents to determine the value of a home that hasn't sold yet.  You take several homes that have sold with similar features and square footage and use those to estimate the value of the home in question.  That is the way you should be approaching this if you are serious.

But that's my point, you didn't do that with your Trulia post. You just said "4br homes, peak $1m, crash $7k, 30% drop'"

That didn't have any slicing on type of home, square footage, features or whatever.

So if you were serious, you would have dug in more like USC said.

You're comment is just as misleading as the "15%" claims because there is not like model comparison for those values.

I know you know what I mean but you are overlooking it just for arguments sake.

If in 2006, 5 3000sft 4br homes sold for $1m and then in 2011, 5 1800sft 4br condos sold for $700k, the "statistics" would say 4br homes drop 30%. But without the details, that is misleading. That's why I also want to see $/sft data, as that is at least slicing into actual size of home.

Secondly, the listings you have provided are ridiculous.

10 Quebrada sold in 1993 and then again in 2013.  How does this even apply to the time period in question when prices fell from 2007-2012?

15 Hermosa sold in 2002 and then again in 2012.  Nobody has argued that prices didn't rise over that 10 year timeframe.  This is true for almost any house in Orange County.

Uh yeah, it's showing you that they didn't drop, that's why you don't see any sell price during the peak in the $1.2m range for those to be 30% off. And you can extrapolate the data, if you look at Windstream inventory during that time period, most of those homes did not sell for more than 30% above those sale prices (2013 is close enough to 2011/2012). But really, my links were for R2D so she could see what type of stock I was looking at.

Again, your point about a 40-50% drop is a strawman because nobody on this thread has argued that is what happened.  The bears from IHB are long gone now, and I wasn't even a participant on IHB.

Why is it a strawman? IHB posters predicted that would be the drop, I'm not making that up. There is not one post in this thread where I said anyone is claiming that Irvine dropped that much, what I said is Irvine did NOT drop that much despite those predictions.

And if you weren't around on IHB then, why are you belaboring my call out to IHB? You're the one who keeps saying what I said is a strawman but you're not supporting your Trulia post. Show me a good number of Irvine 4br SFRs that dropped 30% or it's just as good as the 15% claim.

P.S. Sales detail history is actually how many people value real estate. You look at comparable homes in the area and their history. Isn't that why so many people post listings to compare to what other people are buying/selling for?

 

[eyephone]

Does it have a similar impact on the rentals as well? For instance, if home price drop would rent drop as well at the same time?
Rents in Irvine are very high, and they keep going up. Would there be anytime when we will see 4 Bed SFH listed less than 3K a month for rent?

I don't see that happening this time around. IF prices of homes does drop, it will be in tandem with substantial increase in mortgage interest rate to even out the playing field. Homes sold since 2011 goes into strict under-writting and people have to comes up with substantial down payment and got lots of skins in their housing.

Then when they do walk away either to foreclosed or sell at lost, they still gotta live somewhere, unless they join the homeless crowds, they will rent. Rent will be at the same level or could increase due to further demands from families needing shelters.

Under your scenario, companies will layoff and families that can?t afford will move to a cheaper place around town or out of town or move back with family.

I can see your doomsday points. However, with the current political of TRUMP Corporate Welfare and Job Acts. That ain't gonna happen.

You never know.

?Trump in 2007: ?I?m Excited? for Housing Market Crash?
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-2007-i-m-excited-housing-market-crash-n578761

 

[lnc]

This thread is turning into IHO vs the world.

Ha ha, this reminds me of good old IHB days, IHO was also fighting against the IHB world.

For what it's worth, I'm in IHO camp with this topic.  I don't have any good data to back it up but just base on my limited observation on the new home sales during that time, I draw the same conclusion.

I remember the new home's asking price peak around $400/s.f. in the late 2006 or early 2007 in WB.  And in the early 2012, the Lambert Ranch in PS was asking around $340/s.f., which is the lowest asking price $/s.f. for a new build at that time.  That's just about 15% drop from price peak to the price bottom.

I know the new build's asking price does not tell the whole story but their asking price "usually" are closely base on the market conditions.  Anyhow, it may be flawed but that's just how I draw my impression that Irvine's housing market only drop about 15% from the peak to the bottom. 

 

[woodburyowner]

I remember the new home's asking price peak around $400/s.f. in the late 2006 or early 2007 in WB.  And in the early 2012, the Lambert Ranch in PS was asking around $340/s.f., which is the lowest asking price $/s.f. for a new build at that time.  That's just about 15% drop from price peak to the price bottom.

I remember peak price was more than $400/s.f.  Portisol SFR in Woodbury basically started at high $3s/sq.ft. ($380-$390) when it was released late 2014 for move in mid 2015. 

 

[Hugo Township]

Does it have a similar impact on the rentals as well? For instance, if home price drop would rent drop as well at the same time?
Rents in Irvine are very high, and they keep going up. Would there be anytime when we will see 4 Bed SFH listed less than 3K a month for rent?

I don't see that happening this time around. IF prices of homes does drop, it will be in tandem with substantial increase in mortgage interest rate to even out the playing field. Homes sold since 2011 goes into strict under-writting and people have to comes up with substantial down payment and got lots of skins in their housing.

Then when they do walk away either to foreclosed or sell at lost, they still gotta live somewhere, unless they join the homeless crowds, they will rent. Rent will be at the same level or could increase due to further demands from families needing shelters.

Under your scenario, companies will layoff and families that can?t afford will move to a cheaper place around town or out of town or move back with family.

I can see your doomsday points. However, with the current political of TRUMP Corporate Welfare and Job Acts. That ain't gonna happen.

Oh good, I'm glad recessions are over. Cutting corporate taxes, exacerbating the federal deficit, and protectionist trade policy are the key to ending them forever!!! When government spending gets cut back I'm sure it will have a negligible effect on the economy.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Recession will be inevitable. The question here is, would it goes far enough and deep enough for people to dump their homes at 15 % or more from the peak? Even if TRUMP play GOD now, he can only do so much until the cycle arrive.

 

[Ready2Downsize]

People won't dump their houses (primary) unless they have to..... ie they can't make the payments such as with a job loss or reduced hours.

But if demand drops (less buyers due to job losses, higher rates changing rent vs. buying ratio for investors), prices will soften. S l o w grind lower.

If owners of multiple homes start selling (ie they can't keep them rented or rents drop affecting their cash flow) then it could drop a bit quicker.

Been there more times than I want to remember and it's always worse than one thinks and at the bottom no one thinks it won't go even lower.

Irvine company, Five Points and even some realtors actively market in China to bring buyers to Irvine (not Tustin) which has fueled houses higher within Irvine and should support prices but who knows? Chinese are pretty savvy and always look for "deals". They just might pull back and wait for better prices.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Does anyone think Irvine will see a huge drop in the next "crash"?

And if so... how huge? 15%? 30% 40-50%?

 

[OCLuvr]

15%

 

[qwerty]

Not sure you can call the  Chinese savvy buyers if they are the ones fueling the irvine price increases. Not many deals to be had in Irvine. Or anywhere.

 

[the.irvine]

Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled by more than 650 points in the biggest plunge since Donald Trump?s election.  The main concern is Fed raising interest rates, possibly three times a year.

 

[Ready2Downsize]

Not sure you can call the  Chinese savvy buyers if they are the ones fueling the irvine price increases. Not many deals to be had in Irvine. Or anywhere.

Irvine's been going up, right? Those who bought a year ago have houses worth more than they bought them for........ in Irvine that is.

 

[eyephone]

Does anyone think Irvine will see a huge drop in the next "crash"?

And if so... how huge? 15%? 30% 40-50%?

Yuge!

 

[Burn That Belly]

x

 

[Liar Loan]

Does anyone think Irvine will see a huge drop in the next "crash"?

And if so... how huge? 15%? 30% 40-50%?

Irvine has never avoided a crash before, so no reason to think it will start now.

The next crash won't be a financial crisis though, so I expect a 15-20% decline much like the mid-90's recession.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

My prediction is we rather not have a crash like 2008. We will get a ?CRASH?  this time the crash will be in the form of ultra low inventory of homes available for purchase and prices will be flat line for sometimes. Recession will abate the continued rate increase and even gives some back.