usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Actually you need to look at things a big deeper....prices for detached condos/single family homes dropped around 15-20% (depending on floor plan and location) and prices for attached condos dropped 30-35%.
Irvine home values up 36% in 5 years: How?s that rank nationally?
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Whoah. How many of these $1m 4-br Irvine homes were $700k during the crash?
Links?
The reason for that crash wasn't due to irresponsible lending by banks? Now a days its not easy to qualify for a home loan. Dont you agree increase in inflation, higher wages, will cause home prices to go up as consumer confidence is growing. Whether you like this or not, new tax changes will have a positive impact on the economy. If we get into an international crisis/war, that is a separate story.
That was a joke. And my home actually only dropped about 5%.
You are skewing the other way. Sure there were price drops in Irvine, just not the 40-50%... and "loads of short sales" is how many? What percentage compared to surrounding cities?
I don't recall many $1m Irvine homes selling for $700k... at least not "loads" of them. All I know is that the stock I was looking for during the bottom, 4-5 br SFRs (or even detached condos), there weren't many in the $700k range... and for sure very few that sold for $1m previously.
It's easy to look at Trulia and make some type of analysis but I was actively searching for homes from 2008 on, we probably looked at over 100 homes in person and way more via Redfin and the inventory I saw did not reflect 40%+ drops (I posted this on IHB on numerous occasions).
IHO - I'm assuming you went to college? Ever take a statistics class? Median value is the midpoint of all sales for a given time frame. It doesn't mean there is literally a house, or hundreds of houses, that at one time sold for $1M that then sold for $700k four years later. You are making unreasonable demands of the data here. This is aggregate market data so you have to accept that the market as a whole declined by 30%. Some houses did worse (condos) and others did better (whatever neighborhoods FCB's were buying in).
When you say Irvine didn't drop by 40-50% that is a strawman argument. Nobody has suggested that is the case, but several people on this thread have stated Irvine only declined by 15% and that is demonstrably false, whether you want to use aggregated data or links to actual home sales.
If you do want to research individual home sales, here is a link to all 4-5 bd homes that sold for $700k or less in Irvine, many of which closed between 2010-2012. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of examples to choose from.
https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA...se,max-price=700k,min-beds=4,include=sold-all
Strawman? You started it. I wasn't the one who claimed Irvine will drop 40-50% and by your own posts, it didn't. If you want to talk statistics, if USC says the low end was 15% and the high end was 35%, isn't the median more like 25%?
And like USC said, you have to divide the data out by type of home, you can't just say 4-br homes sold for X in 2006 and then sold for X in 2011 and then say that all 4-br as a median dropped by that difference. You even said Trulia doesn't make that distinction.
For all we know all the cheap 4brs were attached condos or homes in The Willows or Orangetree and then all the expensive ones were SFRs in FCB desired locations.
My point was it's not the same house so your conclusion is skewed. I don't need to take statistics to know that the sample data should be the same if you're going to compare over time.
See, you won't even find me the data and make me do the work. You should fact check your links, I just clicked on the first 3 or 4 and none of those sold for $1m in mid 2000s and then for $700k in the 2010s.
Now for those who did show links:
@rkp: I toured that home twice. It was bad on the inside and it was distressed, listed and de-listed multiple times... next to 2 main roads didn't help. But that was not the "median" or whatever term LL wants to use. There weren't many Woodbury 4-br SFRs that had a 30% drop, most were holding because they did just buy them.
@bones: How many in Northpark? I saw a few too but again, not the majority.
But like LL says, everyone's personal experience will color the perspective... I just don't know of anyone else who has looked as many homes for the the length of time that I have other than realtors... and USC seems to be backing my experience.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Liar Loan said:
Whoah. How many of these $1m 4-br Irvine homes were $700k during the crash?
Links?
the.irvine
Active member
irvinehomeowner said:
The reason for that crash wasn't due to irresponsible lending by banks? Now a days its not easy to qualify for a home loan. Dont you agree increase in inflation, higher wages, will cause home prices to go up as consumer confidence is growing. Whether you like this or not, new tax changes will have a positive impact on the economy. If we get into an international crisis/war, that is a separate story.
Loco_local
Active member
Are wages rising enough to keep pace with inflation? Will rising interest rates make it more difficult for people to afford a home? Will the new tax law make people reluctant to move up to a more expensive home?
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Liar Loan said:
That was a joke. And my home actually only dropped about 5%.
You are skewing the other way. Sure there were price drops in Irvine, just not the 40-50%... and "loads of short sales" is how many? What percentage compared to surrounding cities?
I don't recall many $1m Irvine homes selling for $700k... at least not "loads" of them. All I know is that the stock I was looking for during the bottom, 4-5 br SFRs (or even detached condos), there weren't many in the $700k range... and for sure very few that sold for $1m previously.
It's easy to look at Trulia and make some type of analysis but I was actively searching for homes from 2008 on, we probably looked at over 100 homes in person and way more via Redfin and the inventory I saw did not reflect 40%+ drops (I posted this on IHB on numerous occasions).
the.irvine
Active member
Where is our USC? He would know this inside out.
In Woodbury, houses definitely dropped by 30%+ from the peak.
Example:https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/20-Bungalow-92620/home/5950553
Builder sold for $1,057K (without landscaping and upgrades)
Sold in Dec 2012 for $742K - 30% discount
Sold in Nov 2014 for $1,225K - 65% increase from bottom and 15% increase from previous peak
House today will sell for $1,300K easily
Of course anecdotal but many houses in Woodbury fell 25-30%.
Example:https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/20-Bungalow-92620/home/5950553
Builder sold for $1,057K (without landscaping and upgrades)
Sold in Dec 2012 for $742K - 30% discount
Sold in Nov 2014 for $1,225K - 65% increase from bottom and 15% increase from previous peak
House today will sell for $1,300K easily
Of course anecdotal but many houses in Woodbury fell 25-30%.
woodburyowner
Well-known member
My Irvine condo was $650k at the peak and then sold for low $4s during the crash. The SFR I bought was mid-high $7s and previously purchased at over $1MM. I saw a few examples of similar SFRs selling for low $7s and even high $6s when I was looking. Remember, during the short sale days, there was fraud everywhere and prices paid were not indicative of the "true" market value. I would have paid $7s for some properties that closed at high $6s, but agent wouldn't call me back or wanted some cash concessions. It was a very interesting time.
Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
Our home in Irvine dropped by over 33% peak to trough. (still was worth 50% more than what we paid plus upgrades, landscaping etc from the time we bought it in the late 90's).
I remember one of the sales was a foreclosure and I thought wow............... you must have refinanced it cuz u should have plenty of equity.
None of the other homes were foreclosures, just people who wanted to sell and kept dropping the prices.
I remember one of the sales was a foreclosure and I thought wow............... you must have refinanced it cuz u should have plenty of equity.
None of the other homes were foreclosures, just people who wanted to sell and kept dropping the prices.
Liar Loan
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:
IHO - I'm assuming you went to college? Ever take a statistics class? Median value is the midpoint of all sales for a given time frame. It doesn't mean there is literally a house, or hundreds of houses, that at one time sold for $1M that then sold for $700k four years later. You are making unreasonable demands of the data here. This is aggregate market data so you have to accept that the market as a whole declined by 30%. Some houses did worse (condos) and others did better (whatever neighborhoods FCB's were buying in).
When you say Irvine didn't drop by 40-50% that is a strawman argument. Nobody has suggested that is the case, but several people on this thread have stated Irvine only declined by 15% and that is demonstrably false, whether you want to use aggregated data or links to actual home sales.
If you do want to research individual home sales, here is a link to all 4-5 bd homes that sold for $700k or less in Irvine, many of which closed between 2010-2012. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of examples to choose from.
https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA...se,max-price=700k,min-beds=4,include=sold-all
OC_relocation
Member
Let me ask a dumb question. If you have to buy now which one you would buy, and which home will hold its value better?
1.4M 4 years old SFH or 1.4M Brand new SFH, both in a same neighborhood with similar floor plans.
Obviously considering older home has all the upgrades, yard done etc, and newer home would need all the makeup.
1.4M 4 years old SFH or 1.4M Brand new SFH, both in a same neighborhood with similar floor plans.
Obviously considering older home has all the upgrades, yard done etc, and newer home would need all the makeup.
the.irvine
Active member
LOLs. Where is BTB? We need his new car vs old car example here. I think NEW
Burn That Belly
New member
x
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Liar Loan said:
Strawman? You started it. I wasn't the one who claimed Irvine will drop 40-50% and by your own posts, it didn't. If you want to talk statistics, if USC says the low end was 15% and the high end was 35%, isn't the median more like 25%?
And like USC said, you have to divide the data out by type of home, you can't just say 4-br homes sold for X in 2006 and then sold for X in 2011 and then say that all 4-br as a median dropped by that difference. You even said Trulia doesn't make that distinction.
For all we know all the cheap 4brs were attached condos or homes in The Willows or Orangetree and then all the expensive ones were SFRs in FCB desired locations.
My point was it's not the same house so your conclusion is skewed. I don't need to take statistics to know that the sample data should be the same if you're going to compare over time.
See, you won't even find me the data and make me do the work. You should fact check your links, I just clicked on the first 3 or 4 and none of those sold for $1m in mid 2000s and then for $700k in the 2010s.
Now for those who did show links:
@rkp: I toured that home twice. It was bad on the inside and it was distressed, listed and de-listed multiple times... next to 2 main roads didn't help. But that was not the "median" or whatever term LL wants to use. There weren't many Woodbury 4-br SFRs that had a 30% drop, most were holding because they did just buy them.
@bones: How many in Northpark? I saw a few too but again, not the majority.
But like LL says, everyone's personal experience will color the perspective... I just don't know of anyone else who has looked as many homes for the the length of time that I have other than realtors... and USC seems to be backing my experience.