Irvine home values up 36% in 5 years: How?s that rank nationally?

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36% in 5 years is around 7.2% appreciation a year. This number is pretty much the average of the 20 composite index. The case shiller LA-index shows appreciation of 5.5% from Jan 01 2017 to Oct 30th, 2017. Nov and Dec data is not out yet, but if I take the average the LA index appreciation should around 6.6%, so the appreciation of Irvine is slightly above the LA-index. Seattle appreciated the most in 2017 at 13.44% and Las Vegas at 10.68%. These are just estimates looking at the case shiller data from Jan to Oct 2017.

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Near term the job market is robust in Orange County CA. To see the housing market reverse you will need to see spike in unemployment like we have seen in 1993 and 2011.

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OCluvr, I would assume that the Irvine market bottomed around the same time as the LA-index which is May 2009, therefore the Irvine market bottomed sometime during the summer of 2009. I was hoping that the Irvine market would correct 40% back during the financial crisis in 2008, but seems that the Irvine market only corrected 15% from the peak. Other B- and C class markets like La Habra, Santa Ana and parts of Anaheim did drop 35-40%. You see Irvine downside was far less than the average of the LA index. If we see another major spike in the unemployment in Orange County, Irvine will again be much stronger to hold its value and weather the storm. This is the market strength of holding real estate in A-class areas.
 
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Currently the Irvine housing market is making record lows in terms of inventory. The best time to buy in Irvine was in July 2011 where the inventory peaked to 1352 units. Currently we are sitting on only 23% of the that peak inventory.
 
You are right. Bottom was 2009, but in that case if one wants to really compare appreciation for Irvine, shouldn't they take 2009 as benchmark for appreciation, as most other cities bottomed in 2012?
 
OCLuvr said:
You are right. Bottom was 2009, but in that case if one wants to really compare appreciation for Irvine, shouldn't they take 2009 as benchmark for appreciation, as most other cities bottomed in 2012?
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Hard to say.. The LA market did a dead cat bounce of 2.9% in 2009 but then dropped another 5.7% in 2010 and 2011. Some may argue that 2011 was the bottom. Notice how similar the appreciation between LA and Atlanta has been. The appreciation of the A class markets like Alpharetta, South Forsyth, and Johns Creek has beaten the Atlanta index similar to that of Irvine vs the LA-index.
 
From what I could tell, we sorta had a double bottom in 2009 and then 2011 because in between we had the free gov't money of up to $8k for primary purchases which was a bit of a temporary sugar rush that juiced things up in 2010 then we came back down in 2011.  Anyone that bought in 2009, 2nd half of 2011, or 1st half of 2012 in most parts of Orange County basically bought at the bottom. 
 
I met a sad face dude today, and he was trying to convince why renting is better than buying a 1.3+m home because sky is going to fall in 2019/2020, where home prices will fall more than 20% including in Irvine. This was the last thing i wanted to hear after signing up for a new home :).
 
I doubt prices would correct up to 20%in Irvine. Even in 2008, they were down by 15%.

the.irvine said:
I met a sad face dude today, and he was trying to convince why renting is better than buying a 1.3+m home because sky is going to fall in 2019/2020, where home prices will fall more than 20% including in Irvine. This was the last thing i wanted to hear after signing up for a new home :).
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I have this same question. Is there a source for Irvine specifically and not just Orange County? Also is there anything that breaks this down between condos/townhomes vs SFR?
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Liar Loan said:
Where is this widely cited statistic that Irvine only dropped 15% coming from?
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That's from my home. :)

On average I think it was more... but it wasn't no 40-50% as predicted on the IHB.
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Seriously?  Everybody on this thread thinks Irvine only fell 15% because that's what you said your home fell by?

It's interesting to see how much the mythology of Irvine differs from reality.  There were loads of short sales in Irvine.  Does anybody want to inform those people that lost their homes that prices don't ever drop in Irvine?
 
Liar Loan said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Liar Loan said:
Where is this widely cited statistic that Irvine only dropped 15% coming from?
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That's from my home. :)

On average I think it was more... but it wasn't no 40-50% as predicted on the IHB.
Click to expand...

Seriously?  Everybody on this thread thinks Irvine only fell 15% because that's what you said your home fell by?

It's interesting to see how much the mythology of Irvine differs from reality.  There were loads of short sales in Irvine.  Does anybody want to inform those people that lost their homes that prices don't ever drop in Irvine?
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There are still homes that haven?t gotten back to purchase price in Irvine.  Some from 2007 come to mind.
 
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