INFLATION IS OUR FRIEND

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
morekaos

morekaos

Well-known member
Cycles are cycles are cycles....

Faster than expected inflation ?is actually a good sign,? White House official says

On Thursday, President Joe Biden traveled to Ohio to make the case that the economy is headed in the right direction. ?We?ve turned the tide,? he told the crowd in Cleveland.
Shortly afterward, during an appearance on Yahoo Finance Live, one of his top economic advisers acknowledged that in areas like inflation and in the labor market, ?there's going to be some bumps in the road? as the economy continues to right itself following the pandemic.

However, National Economic Council Deputy Director Bharat Ramamurti also told Yahoo Finance that the recent inflation jump is actually a positive sign. ?The faster than expected increase in some of those prices is actually a good sign in the sense that it's a sign that the economy is recovering faster than a lot of people expected,? he said.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/faster-than-expected-inflation-is-actually-a-good-sign-white-house-official-says/ar-AAKunfm?ocid=BingNewsSearch

Dan Akroyd pretending to be President Jimmy Carter on Saturday Night Live and 45 years ahead of his time:

?President Jimmy Carter: Good evening. On Tuesday, we Americans will have the opportunity to exercise our role as citizens in a free democracy. Yet, only a third of the eligible voters will actually cast ballots. The other two-thirds are, in a sense, very lucky. Because they do not know what?s going on.

?Last week, I delivered a message on inflation. Since then, the dollar has dropped in value, the stock market has sustained record losses, and the whole Dow price index increased 0.9%. In other words, our economic system is screwed, blued and tatooed! We just have to face the fact that there is simply no way to fight inflation in a capitally-intensive, highly-technological, conflict-riddled, anything-for-a-thrill world of today. That?s why, tonight, I want you to try to look at inflation in an entirely new way: Inflation is our friend.

?For example, consider this: in the year 2000, if current trends continue, the average blue-collar annual wage in this country will be $568,000. Think what this inflated world of the future will mean ? most Americans will be millionaires. Everyone will feel like a bigshot. Wouldn?t you like to own a $4,000 suit, and smoke a $75 cigar, drive a $600,000 car? I know I would! But what about people on fixed incomes? They have always been the true victims of inflation. That?s why I will present to Congress the ?Inflation Maintenance Program?, whereby the U.S. Treasury will make up any inflation-caused losses to direct tax rebates to the public in cash. Then you may say, ?Won?t that cost a lot of money? Won?t that increase the deficit?? Sure it will! But so what? We?ll just print more money! We have the papers, we have the mints. I can just call up the Bureau of Engraving and say, ?Hi! This is Jimmy. Roll out some of them twenties! Print up a couple thousand sheets of those Century Notes!? Sure, all these dollars will cause even more inflation, but who cares? Everyone will be a millionaire!

?In my speech last week, I said that America would have to undergo an austerity program, but since this revolutionary new approach welcomes inflation, our economy will be free to grow, and we can spend, spend, spend! I believe the watchwords for the ?80s should be ?Let?s Party!?

https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/jimmy-carter-on-inflation-cold-open/3007609
 
The Fed has declared any undesirable inflation (that which is above the normal yet undefined desired inflation) to be transitory.  Or, to paraphrase, "It?s going to disappear. One day ? it?s like a miracle ? it will disappear.?
 
This is good...right?

'Biden's inflation crisis is here': Inflation jumps to 5% through April in the quickest rise since the Great Recession as Republicans blame soaring prices on massive Democrat stimulus programs
Overall consumer prices rose 0.6% in May, totaling 5% over the prior 12 months
It is the fastest rise in inflation since August 2008 during the Great Recession
Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was up 3.8% in fastest increase since 1992
Republicans blame freewheeling Fed monetary policy and Democrats' massive federal spending

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9672595/Inflation-jumps-5-April-quickest-rise-2008.html
 
daedalus said:
It's not yet widely accepted but everywhere I look I see inflation.  We have asterisked unfavorable economic measures with a COVID caveat, but I think the inflation will remain long after COVID is no longer a front page news item, and income disparity will get worse.  Not the stuff of healthy and stable societies.
Click to expand...

Lumber is the product du jour for many discussions about inflation.  It's seriously messed up, for anyone who hasn't yet heard. For a more specific look, OSB is a great example, which is commonly used for sheathing houses; i.e., a lot of it is needed to build a house.  2 years ago a 4x8 sheet was about $10, give or take.  Today you can expect to pay about $70 for that same sheet.  2x4 lumber, or "sticks", are even more ubiquitous in home building. What used to cost about $3 is now about $12.  I read that a recent study shows that the cost of lumber today is adding $38000 to the average price of building a home, which I think is complete BS.  That would suggest it used to cost under $10000 for the lumber in a home.  No way has that been the case in a very long time.

The common wisdom I read in online comments is people who can afford to wait are doing so, and holding off on completing optional projects.  Sheds, porches, add-ons, etc...folks are waiting to pay $3 for that 2x4 before they will commit to the project.  I'm afraid that if they stick to their guns, the projects will never get done.  We might not see $12 sticks forever, but I don't think we'll see $3 prices again in the next 2 years and, depending on other inflationary winds, maybe never again.
 
morekaos said:
This is good...right?

'Biden's inflation crisis is here': Inflation jumps to 5% through April in the quickest rise since the Great Recession as Republicans blame soaring prices on massive Democrat stimulus programs
Overall consumer prices rose 0.6% in May, totaling 5% over the prior 12 months
It is the fastest rise in inflation since August 2008 during the Great Recession
Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was up 3.8% in fastest increase since 1992
Republicans blame freewheeling Fed monetary policy and Democrats' massive federal spending

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9672595/Inflation-jumps-5-April-quickest-rise-2008.html
Click to expand...

I doubt one person here remembers the days of inflation. I must be older than most everyone and I was young enough (parents bought food, lived at home to go to college etc) to only know the tail end when I couldn't buy a house cuz prices had gone up so much and interest rates ended up being sky high to fight it.

I know it's going to hurt the lower income people the worst by far and no amount of hey ma, look at min. wage is going to help.

 
Ready2Downsize said:
morekaos said:
This is good...right?

'Biden's inflation crisis is here': Inflation jumps to 5% through April in the quickest rise since the Great Recession as Republicans blame soaring prices on massive Democrat stimulus programs
Overall consumer prices rose 0.6% in May, totaling 5% over the prior 12 months
It is the fastest rise in inflation since August 2008 during the Great Recession
Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was up 3.8% in fastest increase since 1992
Republicans blame freewheeling Fed monetary policy and Democrats' massive federal spending

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9672595/Inflation-jumps-5-April-quickest-rise-2008.html
Click to expand...

I doubt one person here remembers the days of inflation. I must be older than most everyone and I was young enough (parents bought food, lived at home to go to college etc) to only know the tail end when I couldn't buy a house cuz prices had gone up so much and interest rates ended up being sky high to fight it.

I know it's going to hurt the lower income people the worst by far and no amount of hey ma, look at min. wage is going to help.
Click to expand...

I'm same age-ish, I remember talking to my credit union about a used car loan when I was working through college, the rate for a 2 year loan would have been 18%.  I remember my short term CDs 3 month and 6 month were paying double digits.

I remember the family dinner talk during the Oil Embargo, concerns Dad's union would strike, and the rising price talk leading up to Reagan's election
 
I was a kid but I remember it.  I asked my mother what the word meant because it was mentioned so much.  I remember the angst the word brought.  I remember numismatics, gold and silver were in vogue.  My father dragged me to coin shows to look for rarities.  And to the beach with his metal detector to do the same there.  He did find some interesting things.  Eventually the city would start combing the sand nightly with a large zamboni-like beach cleaner and the treasures were no more.

Maybe it's time to stock up on toilet paper again, to avoid the annual 5% price hikes that are coming.  Or maybe globalization will come to our rescue.
 
I think we are definitely not in a "transitory" inflationary period.  Once people think inflation is here, prices rise all over the place and the price will never go back down.  My house cleaner just upped her rate by 22% and said he is asking all her customers to pay more.  I am now increasing all my tenant's rent during renewal 5-7% (previous 5 years I only did 2-3%).  I was able to raise my rent 9% on a recent vacancy.  My actual cost has not gone up these percentages, but since everyone is talking inflation it seems like people are more understanding/willing to pay a higher rent.
 
daedalus said:
I was a kid but I remember it.  I asked my mother what the word meant because it was mentioned so much.  I remember the angst the word brought.  I remember numismatics, gold and silver were in vogue.  My father dragged me to coin shows to look for rarities.  And to the beach with his metal detector to do the same there.  He did find some interesting things.  Eventually the city would start combing the sand nightly with a large zamboni-like beach cleaner and the treasures were no more.

Maybe it's time to stock up on toilet paper again, to avoid the annual 5% price hikes that are coming.  Or maybe globalization will come to our rescue.
Click to expand...

If you need diapers, time to buy some extras. When I have too many extra bucks at cvs I sometimes buy diapers (I sell some baby gifts that use diapers in them, so I can always use some but not as many as I got trying to burn my bucks when the lockdown started). I sometimes sell the extras on offer up and my price used to be a little higher than could be had on amazon........ not any more. Not sure if pg/kimberly clark has already raised what they are going to for the year but if not, sticker shock is coming in a few months.
 
Maybe I?m the only one that believes in the fed here. Inflation is definitely here but I don?t see it impacting people to the degree that some people think it will.

It?s unsurprising prices are going up now since factories are not able to keep up with the demand. This goes for produce, travel, lumbar, etc. Once you lock up an economy and everyone is stuck at home, everyone will want to go out. So yes, there will be an initial shock to the system which is currently happening in front of us but eventually people will have traveled, production will get back to ?normal? and be able to meet the demand of the consumers.

I mean how many times can one travel a year? How many fruits/meat can one eat in a household? Lumbar is dropping dramatically as well. I think inflationary concerns will be ongoing until after a couple months after the eviction and forbearance moratorium ends.

This isn?t to say that prices will go down. It?s to explain that prices will go up but will stabilize once things are back to normal.
 
"You keep using that word...I Don thin that means what you thin it means.."  Inugo Montoyo
https://youtu.be/dTRKCXC0JFg


"The Transitory Scam" - Ten Companies Warn About Passing Along Rising Costs To Consumers

Campbell Soup Company
On June 9, in Campbell Soup's third quarter, 2021 conference call, the word "inflation" was mentioned 35 times by execs and analysts.

The company revealed it was "impacted by a rising inflationary environment," and CEO Mark Clouse said he expects "sustained inflationary pressures through the remainder of the year."

Campbell's said it will be raising food prices this summer to offset the rising costs. Although CEO Mark Clouse noted, "we are going to be very thoughtful about it. The last thing we want to do is shut down the growth that we've worked fairly hard to have."

The JM Smucker Company
In JM Smucker's fourth-quarter, 2021 conference call on June 3, there were 10 mentions of inflation, and CEO Mark Smucker said the company would be raising prices to offset rising costs.

"Broad-based inflation is impacting many of the commodities, packaging materials, and transportation channels that are important to our business. We are mitigating the impacts through a combination of higher pricing inclusive of list price increases, reduced trade and net revenue optimization strategies, as well as continued cost management," Smucker said.

Stanley Black & Decker
In Stanley Black & Decker's first quarter 2021 earnings presentation on April 28, in a slide entitled "Commodity Inflation Update," the company said steel, resin, base metals, electrical components, and batteries have pushed incremental inflation costs up for 2021 by $160 million vs. January guidance.

The slide showed Black & Decker's plans to increase prices to offset costs.

Whirlpool
In an interview with Yahoo Finance in April, Whirlpool's CFO Jim Peters said the company was seeing price increases and would pass the costs onto consumers.

"We took price increases in every region of the world, that range from 5% to 12%," Peters said. "Those are driven by commodity cost increases, and it's something we have done historically."

The company said in its first-quarter conference call that the price increase actions "will offset the impact of global supply constraints and rising input costs."

Kimberly-Clark
Kimberly-Clark said it would be raising prices on products like Scott toilet paper and Huggies diapers by "mid-to-high single digits" in late March.

Then, in the company's April 23 first-quarter earnings call, execs said they saw "sharp rises in input costs."

Michael Hsu, Kimberly-Clark's chairman and chief executive officer, said the company was "moving rapidly, especially with selling price increases to offset commodity headwinds."

Honeywell
Honeywell's CEO Darius Adamczyk announced that "inflation is taking hold" and affecting his business' bottom line in the company's first-quarter 2021 conference call on April 23.

The CEO said, "there's no doubt about it. We knew it. We see it." Honeywell announced it would be "quickly taking action" on pricing to stay ahead of the problem

The Clorox Company
Clorox's VP of Investor relations Lisah Burhan told investors in the company's third-quarter 2021 results on April 30 that the company has seen "significant resin price inflation."

In order to "manage those rising costs," Clorox announced "pricing action" effective in July. "As we've mentioned, we'll manage inflationary pressures holistically using all the tools in our toolbox," Burhan said.

Procter & Gamble
Procter & Gamble COO Jon Moeller told analysts in an April 20 earnings call that "this is one of the bigger increases in commodity costs that we've seen over the period of time that I've been involved with this, which is a fairly long period of time."

The company said it will begin "the process of implementing price increases on its Baby Care, Feminine Care, and Adult Incontinence product categories in the United States to offset a portion of the impact of rising commodity costs," noting that the "exact amount of the price increase will vary by brand and sub-brand in the range of mid-to-high single-digit percentages and will go into effect in mid-September."

Coca-Cola
In mid-April, Coca-Cola's CEO James Quincey told CNBC's Sara Eisen on "Squawk on the Street" that the company would be increasing prices to offset rising costs.

"We are well-hedged in '21, but there's pressure built up for '22, and so there will have to be some price increases," Quincey said.

"We intend to manage those intelligently, thinking through the way we use package sizes and really optimize the price points for consumers," he added.

Reynolds Consumer Products
Reynolds Consumer Products revealed that a three-step price increase is already underway on some of its most popular products last month.

"Price increases have been implemented, and a second-round is underway, with plans for a third-round to be implemented in the third quarter," Michael Graham, Reynolds chief financial officer, said during the company's first-quarter earnings call on May 8.

Even as nominal wages are increasing, real wages aren't keep up with soarign prices for food at the supermarket or fuel at the gas station.

The Fed will have a severe problem when inflationary pressures remain, and economic growth subsides, opening up a can of stagflation.



https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/inflation-outlook-impact-transitory-10-companies-already-passing-costs-consumers-2021-6
 
Good thing Americans saved 16 cent in the July 4th BBQ to offset the coming inflation. The smart ones could do some YOLOing in the stock market to make a killing.
 
They know it but want to hide the facts...bad optics but the reality is not easy to hide...The Carter years are coming back.  New York is already there.. ;D ;D >:D

White House has quietly met with economists fearing inflation could last YEARS - not months - despite publicly saying it would be a 'temporary bottleneck' after the largest surge in prices in 13 years
Top Biden economic aides met with economist Larry Summers Tuesday
Summers has warned about inflation and inveighed against Biden's American Rescue Plan
Fed Chair Powell testified in Congress this week after the government released figures showing a 5.4 per cent jump in inflation in June compared to a year ago
It was the largest spike in 13 years
Powell said inflation will remain 'elevated'
On Thursday Powell called it a 'big uptick'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9793363/White-House-secretly-indicating-inflation-YEARS.html
 
It is quite sad Americans need  to rely on other countries news agency to get neutral unbiased view of our own state affairs. CNN and MSNBC are nothing more than liberal mouthpiece


morekaos said:
They know it but want to hide the facts...bad optics but the reality is not easy to hide...The Carter years are coming back.  New York is already there.. ;D ;D >:D

White House has quietly met with economists fearing inflation could last YEARS - not months - despite publicly saying it would be a 'temporary bottleneck' after the largest surge in prices in 13 years
Top Biden economic aides met with economist Larry Summers Tuesday
Summers has warned about inflation and inveighed against Biden's American Rescue Plan
Fed Chair Powell testified in Congress this week after the government released figures showing a 5.4 per cent jump in inflation in June compared to a year ago
It was the largest spike in 13 years
Powell said inflation will remain 'elevated'
On Thursday Powell called it a 'big uptick'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9793363/White-House-secretly-indicating-inflation-YEARS.html
Click to expand...
 
If you think inflation is NOT transitory, then it should be ok to buy a house now even with the crazy 25% runup from a year ago.
 
I wouldn't call the DailyMail an unbiased foreign news agency but that's just me  ;D

I couldn't find what they meant by years in the article (3 years, 10 years or more?), it would have been nice.
 
zubs said:
If you think inflation is NOT transitory, then it should be ok to buy a house now even with the crazy 25% runup from a year ago.
Click to expand...
Is it possible to run high inflation and low interest rates for sustained periods?  Will house prices keep up with inflation if mortgage rates are 6% and increasing?  God help us. 
 
I remember when Bernanke was doing QE and he was saying it's never been done before.....we don't know what will happen.
Well that was 10 years ago.  So far so good?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top