INFLATION IS OUR FRIEND

[usctrojancpa]

High inflation and high Fed rates may lead to recessions.
Recessions lead to unemployment.
Unemployment should mean more distress sales/foreclosures/short sales

We live however in a "no-consequence" world where you cannot be foreclosed upon, and "why make a payment when the government will?" morality has run amok. That's an unrealistic and unsustainable economic viewpoint. At some point in time during a recession, more homes at a lower price will come to market.

The never ending buyer cash that lead to high prices in the 2000's were due to "liar loans". The 2008-2010 housing recovery came from hedgies and foreign cash buying bulk. The 2020 foreclosure epidemic was prevented by forbearance measures and taxpayer bailouts of landlords / small businesses. We printed and deferred our way out the 2020 crash. We would be in a much different place if these deferrals weren't in place.

These same measures may be deployed to keep housing prices high, but they cannot be guaranteed to arrive in time or to work. If none of these measures reoccur, housing prices will fall until we see a balance between seller inventory and buyer acceptance of current prices.

I would welcome a more balances market.  This hot seller's market makes even bad realtors look good.  Good agents shine in a balanced.

Come on Martin. You know you want the market to be seller market so brokers can maximize their pockets.

No, I prefer a balanced market where I can still shine on the listing side and negotiate to get better deals for my buyers.  Before Covid and the craziness started, most of my listings were selling quickly with multiple offers and setting model match closed comp records and my average days to escrow was below 20 days which almost no agent could touch.  Today, 99% of homes are flying into escrow within days so yeah today a monkey can list a home and look like a superstar.  One thing that I'm most proud of is that I was able to get over 20 resale buyers homes in 2021 despite the insane bidding wars.

 

[sleepy5136]

High inflation and high Fed rates may lead to recessions.
Recessions lead to unemployment.
Unemployment should mean more distress sales/foreclosures/short sales

We live however in a "no-consequence" world where you cannot be foreclosed upon, and "why make a payment when the government will?" morality has run amok. That's an unrealistic and unsustainable economic viewpoint. At some point in time during a recession, more homes at a lower price will come to market.

The never ending buyer cash that lead to high prices in the 2000's were due to "liar loans". The 2008-2010 housing recovery came from hedgies and foreign cash buying bulk. The 2020 foreclosure epidemic was prevented by forbearance measures and taxpayer bailouts of landlords / small businesses. We printed and deferred our way out the 2020 crash. We would be in a much different place if these deferrals weren't in place.

These same measures may be deployed to keep housing prices high, but they cannot be guaranteed to arrive in time or to work. If none of these measures reoccur, housing prices will fall until we see a balance between seller inventory and buyer acceptance of current prices.

even if our economy/markets crash, government like you said will put some forbearance. government for some reason feels owning a property is a "right".

 

[Ready2Downsize]

High inflation and high Fed rates may lead to recessions.
Recessions lead to unemployment.
Unemployment should mean more distress sales/foreclosures/short sales

We live however in a "no-consequence" world where you cannot be foreclosed upon, and "why make a payment when the government will?" morality has run amok. That's an unrealistic and unsustainable economic viewpoint. At some point in time during a recession, more homes at a lower price will come to market.

The never ending buyer cash that lead to high prices in the 2000's were due to "liar loans". The 2008-2010 housing recovery came from hedgies and foreign cash buying bulk. The 2020 foreclosure epidemic was prevented by forbearance measures and taxpayer bailouts of landlords / small businesses. We printed and deferred our way out the 2020 crash. We would be in a much different place if these deferrals weren't in place.

These same measures may be deployed to keep housing prices high, but they cannot be guaranteed to arrive in time or to work. If none of these measures reoccur, housing prices will fall until we see a balance between seller inventory and buyer acceptance of current prices.

even if our economy/markets crash, government like you said will put some forbearance. government for some reason feels owning a property is a "right".

At some point, there is going to be hell to pay over all this free money. I'm on this fence...... one more hurrah in stocks and then a decade or two of misery.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

High inflation and high Fed rates may lead to recessions.
Recessions lead to unemployment.
Unemployment should mean more distress sales/foreclosures/short sales

We live however in a "no-consequence" world where you cannot be foreclosed upon, and "why make a payment when the government will?" morality has run amok. That's an unrealistic and unsustainable economic viewpoint. At some point in time during a recession, more homes at a lower price will come to market.

The never ending buyer cash that lead to high prices in the 2000's were due to "liar loans". The 2008-2010 housing recovery came from hedgies and foreign cash buying bulk. The 2020 foreclosure epidemic was prevented by forbearance measures and taxpayer bailouts of landlords / small businesses. We printed and deferred our way out the 2020 crash. We would be in a much different place if these deferrals weren't in place.

These same measures may be deployed to keep housing prices high, but they cannot be guaranteed to arrive in time or to work. If none of these measures reoccur, housing prices will fall until we see a balance between seller inventory and buyer acceptance of current prices.

There are a lot more cans to kick, but the road now turn to river. No more roads soon ahead.

What will they do? What other scheme will they come up with? I guess if there is a will, there is a way. Suffering will be prolong, for much more people.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

High inflation and high Fed rates may lead to recessions.
Recessions lead to unemployment.
Unemployment should mean more distress sales/foreclosures/short sales

We live however in a "no-consequence" world where you cannot be foreclosed upon, and "why make a payment when the government will?" morality has run amok. That's an unrealistic and unsustainable economic viewpoint. At some point in time during a recession, more homes at a lower price will come to market.

The never ending buyer cash that lead to high prices in the 2000's were due to "liar loans". The 2008-2010 housing recovery came from hedgies and foreign cash buying bulk. The 2020 foreclosure epidemic was prevented by forbearance measures and taxpayer bailouts of landlords / small businesses. We printed and deferred our way out the 2020 crash. We would be in a much different place if these deferrals weren't in place.

These same measures may be deployed to keep housing prices high, but they cannot be guaranteed to arrive in time or to work. If none of these measures reoccur, housing prices will fall until we see a balance between seller inventory and buyer acceptance of current prices.

even if our economy/markets crash, government like you said will put some forbearance. government for some reason feels owning a property is a "right".

At some point, there is going to be hell to pay over all this free money. I'm on this fence...... one more hurrah in stocks and then a decade or two of misery.

One more, just one more, sound like an addiction to me.

When the QE started, it was temporary. Now it seem like we cant get off of it. Addicted to poison.

 

[Ready2Downsize]

High inflation and high Fed rates may lead to recessions.
Recessions lead to unemployment.
Unemployment should mean more distress sales/foreclosures/short sales

We live however in a "no-consequence" world where you cannot be foreclosed upon, and "why make a payment when the government will?" morality has run amok. That's an unrealistic and unsustainable economic viewpoint. At some point in time during a recession, more homes at a lower price will come to market.

The never ending buyer cash that lead to high prices in the 2000's were due to "liar loans". The 2008-2010 housing recovery came from hedgies and foreign cash buying bulk. The 2020 foreclosure epidemic was prevented by forbearance measures and taxpayer bailouts of landlords / small businesses. We printed and deferred our way out the 2020 crash. We would be in a much different place if these deferrals weren't in place.

These same measures may be deployed to keep housing prices high, but they cannot be guaranteed to arrive in time or to work. If none of these measures reoccur, housing prices will fall until we see a balance between seller inventory and buyer acceptance of current prices.

even if our economy/markets crash, government like you said will put some forbearance. government for some reason feels owning a property is a "right".

At some point, there is going to be hell to pay over all this free money. I'm on this fence...... one more hurrah in stocks and then a decade or two of misery.

One more, just one more, sound like an addiction to me.

When the QE started, it was temporary. Now it seem like we cant get off of it. Addicted to poison.

IMO, the fed took money from poor people and gave it to rich people. Every time the government does something to reduce the large difference between upper and lower financial/social class it benefits the upper class and the bottom gets farther and farther behind, more and more dependent on government handouts to just survive. Lets give the poor rental assistance and it flows right into the landlords hands. Lets keep rates low so the poor can buy a house and they get beat out by the rich who end up their landlords. Lets raise min. wage and they only fall farther behind with less buying power.

Debt, debt, debt. Rising rates going to make it worse for the feds and eventually something has to give and it's going to hurt.

 

[eyephone]

They could of improve guest experience through simple basic forecasting.

Attendance forecast: expected attendance at the resort
Labor demand planning: help plan labor effectively

Skiing has always been an expensive activity but the increases over the past few years are crazy. Yet, there is so much demand because there is just so much money out there. There are some resorts (very few it seems) that limit the number of skiers on the mountain. We are going next week (not to Vail) - fingers crossed

Outside online article: Vail Resorts Sold a Record Number of Passes. Now Their Ski Areas Are Facing a Logistical Nightmare.
Employees fear the corporate behemoth bit off more than it could chew, while pass holders cry foul about overcrowding and reduced hours

Eleven months after announcing its record sales, Vail is mired in a seemingly endless barrage of complaints, social media vitriol, and negative news stories.
https://www.outsideonline.com/outdo.../vail-resorts-record-ski-passes-overcrowding/

There is too much to post regarding this topic. If your interested in the alleged complaints by employees and guests click the link.

I am just reacting to the headline and a paragraph highlighted in bold in the article. To me does not sound like an inflation problem. Maybe more of a pricing, scheduling, operational , guest forecasting company issue.

I did not post this to get into the labor issues.  Simple model to see that lowering prices increases demand (for anything).  In this case demand rose a bit too much.  Prices will rise to choke off demand and bring the crowds into balance.  Same can be said for bigger more complex systems where inflation and interest rates will have a similar balancing affect....Rates are going up and probably more that people suspect.  Said that more than a year ago when inflation started and was erroneously or stupidly called "transient".

 

[sgip]

@Compressed-Village

You can't take money from the poor and give it to the rich. That's why they are poor - they have no money.

You can print a bajjillion of new money, then put it into investments that the poor cannot access - like low rates for Ng with tight guidelines, or 401k benefits most low income employers don't offer, forgiveable PPP loans for businesses, etc.

Yes, this is a generalization, but in reality our ever weaker dollar, ravaged by inflation, makes everyone poor.

My .0002 c

 

[morekaos]

ECONOMY
Inflation surges 7.5% on an annual basis, even more than expected and highest since 1982

The consumer price index for all items rose 0.6% in January, driving up annual inflation by 7.5%.
That marked the biggest gain since February 1982 and was even higher than the Wall Street estimate.
Core inflation rose 6%, which also was a notch above expectations.
Real earnings for workers increased just 0.1% on the month when accounting for inflation.
Weekly jobless claims declined to 223,000, below the 230,000 estimate.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/10/jan...er-the-past-year-even-more-than-expected.html

This speech is coming....Malaise.
https://youtu.be/kakFDUeoJKM

 

[eyephone]

crickets

They could of improve guest experience through simple basic forecasting.

Attendance forecast: expected attendance at the resort
Labor demand planning: help plan labor effectively

Skiing has always been an expensive activity but the increases over the past few years are crazy. Yet, there is so much demand because there is just so much money out there. There are some resorts (very few it seems) that limit the number of skiers on the mountain. We are going next week (not to Vail) - fingers crossed

Outside online article: Vail Resorts Sold a Record Number of Passes. Now Their Ski Areas Are Facing a Logistical Nightmare.
Employees fear the corporate behemoth bit off more than it could chew, while pass holders cry foul about overcrowding and reduced hours

Eleven months after announcing its record sales, Vail is mired in a seemingly endless barrage of complaints, social media vitriol, and negative news stories.
https://www.outsideonline.com/outdo.../vail-resorts-record-ski-passes-overcrowding/

There is too much to post regarding this topic. If your interested in the alleged complaints by employees and guests click the link.

I am just reacting to the headline and a paragraph highlighted in bold in the article. To me does not sound like an inflation problem. Maybe more of a pricing, scheduling, operational , guest forecasting company issue.

I did not post this to get into the labor issues.  Simple model to see that lowering prices increases demand (for anything).  In this case demand rose a bit too much.  Prices will rise to choke off demand and bring the crowds into balance.  Same can be said for bigger more complex systems where inflation and interest rates will have a similar balancing affect....Rates are going up and probably more that people suspect.  Said that more than a year ago when inflation started and was erroneously or stupidly called "transient".

 

[morekaos]

...or they will raise prices and the problem will solve itself.

 

[sleepy5136]

...or they will raise prices and the problem will solve itself.

I hope you know you can only raise prices so much....

 

[eyephone]

In business you will come across people who complain, but do not have the knowledge to problem solve or recommend a solution.

Also, maybe they should of done dynamic pricing.

 

[morekaos]

...or they will raise prices and the problem will solve itself.

I hope you know you can only raise prices so much....

Lots of room.  Mammoth was at over $220.00 a day for lift tickets before the pandemic.  Business finds that sweet spot where price and demand meet.  Vail will too.

 

[eyephone]

...or they will raise prices and the problem will solve itself.

I hope you know you can only raise prices so much....

Dynamic pricing would work. But not the unlimited pass pricing.
I was going to suggest that they could make more money on food and drinks. But one of the season pass gives a 20% discount on food. (smh)

I never been there, but I am not sure if they charge for parking or valet services. hehe

Parking and food should be easy money revenue.

 

[sleepy5136]

...or they will raise prices and the problem will solve itself.

I hope you know you can only raise prices so much....

Lots of room.  Mammoth was at over $220.00 a day for lift tickets before the pandemic.  Business finds that sweet spot where price and demand meet.  Vail will too.

Mammoth tickets is a bad example. Inflation in necessities are more of a concern than stuff like travel. Right now it's due to food, rents, gas, and more that are up. But how much higher can toilet papers go? How much can a bag of veggies go? You can increase prices on them, but there is only so much that you can increase.

 

[morekaos]

...or they will raise prices and the problem will solve itself.

I hope you know you can only raise prices so much....

Lots of room.  Mammoth was at over $220.00 a day for lift tickets before the pandemic.  Business finds that sweet spot where price and demand meet.  Vail will too.

Mammoth tickets is a bad example. Inflation in necessities are more of a concern than stuff like travel. Right now it's due to food, rents, gas, and more that are up. But how much higher can toilet papers go? How much can a bag of veggies go? You can increase prices on them, but there is only so much that you can increase.

You are reading too far into that example. I used it because it is a simple system that illustrates supply and demand pricing and the effects it can have on consumption.  If you want to know how high goods prices can go, watch that Carter Speech,  It was a plea from a weak president (sound familiar?) in a similar situation.  Remember inflation then was running double digits.  Unemployment was also high.  A 30 year mortgage was in the high teens, you were getting almost double digits on a bank savings account (no risk or cost). Double tax free bonds were double digits.    We have lots of room from here for those who are young and do not remember living through those days.

 

[zovall]

IMO, the fed took money from poor people and gave it to rich people. Every time the government does something to reduce the large difference between upper and lower financial/social class it benefits the upper class and the bottom gets farther and farther behind, more and more dependent on government handouts to just survive. Lets give the poor rental assistance and it flows right into the landlords hands. Lets keep rates low so the poor can buy a house and they get beat out by the rich who end up their landlords. Lets raise min. wage and they only fall farther behind with less buying power.

I agree with what you stated above. The systems/institutions are so messed up..

 

[eyephone]

In this situation, I THINk it is a business decision to offer unlimited pricing vs dynamic pricing. For example a company could charge more on the weekend and also the time that they enter the park.

The 20% discount on food for certain pass holders. I am sure did not help increase revenue for the company.

This is me just spending 5 minutes on this situation.

 

[BlackKnight]

High inflation and high Fed rates may lead to recessions.
Recessions lead to unemployment.
Unemployment should mean more distress sales/foreclosures/short sales

We live however in a "no-consequence" world where you cannot be foreclosed upon, and "why make a payment when the government will?" morality has run amok. That's an unrealistic and unsustainable economic viewpoint. At some point in time during a recession, more homes at a lower price will come to market.

The never ending buyer cash that lead to high prices in the 2000's were due to "liar loans". The 2008-2010 housing recovery came from hedgies and foreign cash buying bulk. The 2020 foreclosure epidemic was prevented by forbearance measures and taxpayer bailouts of landlords / small businesses. We printed and deferred our way out the 2020 crash. We would be in a much different place if these deferrals weren't in place.

These same measures may be deployed to keep housing prices high, but they cannot be guaranteed to arrive in time or to work. If none of these measures reoccur, housing prices will fall until we see a balance between seller inventory and buyer acceptance of current prices.

even if our economy/markets crash, government like you said will put some forbearance. government for some reason feels owning a property is a "right".

At some point, there is going to be hell to pay over all this free money. I'm on this fence...... one more hurrah in stocks and then a decade or two of misery.

One more, just one more, sound like an addiction to me.

When the QE started, it was temporary. Now it seem like we cant get off of it. Addicted to poison.

IMO, the fed took money from poor people and gave it to rich people. Every time the government does something to reduce the large difference between upper and lower financial/social class it benefits the upper class and the bottom gets farther and farther behind, more and more dependent on government handouts to just survive. Lets give the poor rental assistance and it flows right into the landlords hands. Lets keep rates low so the poor can buy a house and they get beat out by the rich who end up their landlords. Lets raise min. wage and they only fall farther behind with less buying power.

Debt, debt, debt. Rising rates going to make it worse for the feds and eventually something has to give and it's going to hurt.

no shit, Sherlock

Where else you think peons get services/foods from?  8)