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[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252555283]Turtle Ridge and Shady Canyon 2009 closings:



5 SHADE TREE? $1,050,000?

..

21 Ridgeview? $5,400,000?</blockquote>


This list is actually missing some closings (Vernal Springs in Shady is notably absent). However, posting closing is irrelevant if the question if price movement.
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1252556235][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252555283]Turtle Ridge and Shady Canyon 2009 closings:



5 SHADE TREE? $1,050,000?

..

21 Ridgeview? $5,400,000?</blockquote>


This list is actually missing some closings (Vernal Springs in Shady is notably absent). However, posting closing is irrelevant if the question if price movement.</blockquote>


How much do you think this one will close for?



http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/30-Watercress-92603/home/5856215
 
Dataquick prices per sqft:



92603 July 2008 $528 ---- July 2009 $425 <strong>(-19.5%)</strong>



92603 June 2009 $458 ---- July 2009 $425 <strong>(-7.2%)</strong>
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1252556437][quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1252556235][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252555283]Turtle Ridge and Shady Canyon 2009 closings:



5 SHADE TREE? $1,050,000?

..

21 Ridgeview? $5,400,000?</blockquote>


This list is actually missing some closings (Vernal Springs in Shady is notably absent). However, posting closing is irrelevant if the question if price movement.</blockquote>


How much do you think this one will close for?



http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/30-Watercress-92603/home/5856215</blockquote>
WTF?



Date Event Price Appreciation Source

Aug 29, 2009 Listed <strong>$5,495,000</strong> -- SoCalMLS #S587468

Aug 01, 2008 Delisted * -- Inactive SoCalMLS #1

Jul 31, 2008 <strong>Sold $4,450,000</strong> -- Public Records

Mar 15, 2008 Price Changed * -- Inactive SoCalMLS #1

Aug 23, 2007 Listed * -- Inactive SoCalMLS #1
 
[quote author="bltserv" date=1252555810][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252555020][quote author="awgee" date=1252554821][quote author="Geotpf" date=1252554436][quote author="BondTrader" date=1252551898][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252551486]Good lord, does the self-delusion (and cross-complimenting) ever end? Face it, people are looking, making offers and buying. And more than at any other time in the past three years, I might add.</blockquote>


TARP Bankers: Thanks for providing a good laugh for guys in the trading room here after lunch.....we need guys like you to help pumping up the stock and real estate market before we dumped all on you, again and again and again.</blockquote>


Irvine house prices sure look like they've bottomed. Look at a dollar/sq ft graph at any website such as Redfin. Now, it might be a temporary, false bottom, and just because prices have bottomed doesn't mean they are going back up any time soon. But prices in Irvine have been basically flat for about a full year now.</blockquote>


That is completely false. There are some areas in Irvine in which the prices have flattened. There are other areas such as Shady Canyon and Turtle Ridge in which the prices are collapsing.</blockquote>


It's obviously not "completely false" when you pick 2 villages out of how many? At the same time, there are homes closing in both of those spots that are not what I would call collapsing.</blockquote>




From August 14 Data Quick.



Skippy.

I dont see any plus signs next to those prices buddy.

Maybe your fuzzy math works different than mine.



Irvine 92602 $626,000 -3.8% 33 +43.5%

Irvine 92603 $683,000 -14.4% 21 -44.7%

Irvine 92604 $490,000 -10.9% 18 -21.7%

Irvine 92606 $660,000 -7.0% 13 +8.3%

Irvine 92612 $410,000 -1.9% 33 -5.7%

Irvine 92614 $530,000 -5.4% 19 +18.8%</blockquote>




Median gargage? Puhleeze.
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1252556235][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252555283]Turtle Ridge and Shady Canyon 2009 closings:



5 SHADE TREE? $1,050,000?

..

21 Ridgeview? $5,400,000?</blockquote>


This list is actually missing some closings (Vernal Springs in Shady is notably absent). However, posting closing is irrelevant if the question if price movement.</blockquote>


It's far from irrelevant. It shows the overall price range and volume.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252557175]Median gargage? Puhleeze.</blockquote>


Is a 3 car garage the median gargage you are talking about?
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1252556631]Dataquick prices per sqft:



92603 July 2008 $528 ---- July 2009 $425 <strong>(-19.5%)</strong>



92603 June 2009 $458 ---- July 2009 $425 <strong>(-7.2%)</strong></blockquote>


As bigger homes close these numbers become distorted. I'm thinking that would not have escaped attention had it supported "the cause".
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1252557323][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252557175]Median gargage? Puhleeze.</blockquote>


Is a 3 car garage the median gargage you are talking about?</blockquote>


Ouch, ya got me again.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252557246][quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1252556235][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252555283]Turtle Ridge and Shady Canyon 2009 closings:



5 SHADE TREE? $1,050,000?

..

21 Ridgeview? $5,400,000?</blockquote>


This list is actually missing some closings (Vernal Springs in Shady is notably absent). However, posting closing is irrelevant if the question if price movement.</blockquote>


It's far from irrelevant. It shows the overall price range and volume.</blockquote>


No it is purely irrelevant. You questioned the assertion that Shady and Ridge prices were collapsing, then posted a bunch of closed sales with no reference to previous sale prices. Your posting was irrelevent to direction of price. Closed prices indicate only a point in time and not direction (much less trend)
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1252557473][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252557246][quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1252556235][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252555283]Turtle Ridge and Shady Canyon 2009 closings:



5 SHADE TREE? $1,050,000?

..

21 Ridgeview? $5,400,000?</blockquote>


This list is actually missing some closings (Vernal Springs in Shady is notably absent). However, posting closing is irrelevant if the question if price movement.</blockquote>


It's far from irrelevant. It shows the overall price range and volume.</blockquote>


No it is purely irrelevant. You questioned the assertion that Shady and Ridge prices were collapsing, then posted a bunch of closed sales with no reference to previous sale prices. Your posting was irrelevent to direction of prices as the prices indicate only a point in time.</blockquote>


Are they lower than peak? Significantly. Are they lower than 12 months ago? Not nearly as much. Can I find a few that support catastrophe? Yes. Can I find some that are not so bad? Yes. Let's take for instance the little Fiore homes that are still closing close to $1.5m.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252557619][quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1252557473][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252557246][quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1252556235][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252555283]Turtle Ridge and Shady Canyon 2009 closings:



5 SHADE TREE? $1,050,000?

..

21 Ridgeview? $5,400,000?</blockquote>


This list is actually missing some closings (Vernal Springs in Shady is notably absent). However, posting closing is irrelevant if the question if price movement.</blockquote>


It's far from irrelevant. It shows the overall price range and volume.</blockquote>


No it is purely irrelevant. You questioned the assertion that Shady and Ridge prices were collapsing, then posted a bunch of closed sales with no reference to previous sale prices. Your posting was irrelevent to direction of prices as the prices indicate only a point in time.</blockquote>


Are they lower than peak? Significantly. Are they lower than 12 months ago? Not nearly as much. Can I find a few that support catastrophe? Yes. Can I find some that are not so bad? Yes. Let's take for instance the little Fiore homes that are still closing close to $1.5m.</blockquote>


Huh?
 
Seventy-six million and multi-million dollar homes have closed this year in these two villages.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252557175][quote author="bltserv" date=1252555810][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252555020][quote author="awgee" date=1252554821][quote author="Geotpf" date=1252554436][quote author="BondTrader" date=1252551898][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252551486]Good lord, does the self-delusion (and cross-complimenting) ever end? Face it, people are looking, making offers and buying. And more than at any other time in the past three years, I might add.</blockquote>


TARP Bankers: Thanks for providing a good laugh for guys in the trading room here after lunch.....we need guys like you to help pumping up the stock and real estate market before we dumped all on you, again and again and again.</blockquote>


Irvine house prices sure look like they've bottomed. Look at a dollar/sq ft graph at any website such as Redfin. Now, it might be a temporary, false bottom, and just because prices have bottomed doesn't mean they are going back up any time soon. But prices in Irvine have been basically flat for about a full year now.</blockquote>


That is completely false. There are some areas in Irvine in which the prices have flattened. There are other areas such as Shady Canyon and Turtle Ridge in which the prices are collapsing.</blockquote>


It's obviously not "completely false" when you pick 2 villages out of how many? At the same time, there are homes closing in both of those spots that are not what I would call collapsing.</blockquote>




From August 14 Data Quick.



Skippy.

I dont see any plus signs next to those prices buddy.

Maybe your fuzzy math works different than mine.



Irvine 92602 $626,000 -3.8% 33 +43.5%

Irvine 92603 $683,000 -14.4% 21 -44.7%

Irvine 92604 $490,000 -10.9% 18 -21.7%

Irvine 92606 $660,000 -7.0% 13 +8.3%

Irvine 92612 $410,000 -1.9% 33 -5.7%

Irvine 92614 $530,000 -5.4% 19 +18.8%</blockquote>




Median gargage? Puhleeze.</blockquote>


Spellchecker please. Tisk Tisk.



You like the month to month better ? Not the last year comparison ?

But you would use the same numbers if the market was going up like it used too.

Again. Selective use of available data ?



I know the one or two month pimple that shows the slide has flattened is reason to

Buy Buy Buy Buy NOW. Never mind government incentives or other influences. Those dont count. Right ?



Its the bottom. We have arrived. Get out the brass band and the dancing girls. Yippee. NOT.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252557745]Seventy-six million and multi-million dollar homes have closed this year in these two villages.</blockquote>


And this says what about collapsing prices? Forgive me, perhaps I am a little slow, but I am continuing to fail to the see the "logic".



To be fair, perhaps there was probably a bit of hyperbole in Awgee's statement. Perhaps we can all be comfortable with "material and ongoing" price drops when referencing T Ridge and Shady.
 
"Spellchecker please. Tisk Tisk.



You like the month to month better ? Not the last year comparison ?

But you would use the same numbers if the market was going up like it used too.

Again. Selective use of available data ?



I know the one or two month pimple that shows the slide has flattened is reason to

Buy Buy Buy Buy NOW. Never mind government incentives or other influences. Those dont count. Right ?



Its the bottom. We have arrived. Get out the brass band and the dancing girls. Yippee. NOT."



I'll ignore the fact that you don't write in sentences. I would suggest you study the proper use of the word "to".
 
Let's examine this little slice of sales:



34 Cezanne $2,200,000

51 Cezanne $2,295,000

20 Cezanne $2,375,000

21 Woodcrest $2,445,000

31 Canyon Ter $2,450,000

35 Canyon Ter $2,490,000

31 Starview $2,495,000

33 Ridgeview $2,525,000

29 Canyon Ter $2,590,000



Wagers on the drop from peak anyone? OK, Ridgeview was a big fall but the others have fallen very little.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252557345][quote author="graphrix" date=1252556631]Dataquick prices per sqft:



92603 July 2008 $528 ---- July 2009 $425 <strong>(-19.5%)</strong>



92603 June 2009 $458 ---- July 2009 $425 <strong>(-7.2%)</strong></blockquote>


As bigger homes close these numbers become distorted. I'm thinking that would not have escaped attention had it supported "the cause".</blockquote>


The numbers are for SFRs only. How does the size of the home affect prices on price per sqft? Wouldn't larger premium homes in Shady skew the data higher with their higher per sqft prices?
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252558133]Let's examine this little slice of sales:



34 Cezanne $2,200,000

51 Cezanne $2,295,000

20 Cezanne $2,375,000

21 Woodcrest $2,445,000

31 Canyon Ter $2,450,000

35 Canyon Ter $2,490,000

31 Starview $2,495,000

33 Ridgeview $2,525,000

29 Canyon Ter $2,590,000



Wagers on the drop from peak anyone? OK, Ridgeview was a big fall but the others have fallen very little.</blockquote>


34 Cezanne's old listing says it has $575K spent on upgrades. Does that count in the cost basis?



34 Cezanne is current listed for $2.05MM and has been on the market for 58 days.



34 Cezanne does not show ever being sold for $2.2MM - per redfin (too recent perhaps...)
 
Newportskipper -

Why do you write in 1 line responses? Your communication skills are poor. It's like there is a lot of shit going through your head, and you expect everyone to understand it already.



I'll be honest with you. I'm stupid. I don't know what a lot of people are talking about on this board. It really is way over my head. The other thread that got closed...I thought I understood it, then you came in and totally confused the hell out of me. At first I was glad there was someone to take on the other position, but your responses were quite short, and usually some personal attack. You really need to spell it out if you want me to understand what you are trying to say. I cannot read your mind. On that note, Graphrix is also too technical at times. I'm just the stupid internets.
 
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