IHB Forum As An Economic Indicator - Address Threads

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[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1252558340][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252558133]Let's examine this little slice of sales:



34 Cezanne $2,200,000

51 Cezanne $2,295,000

20 Cezanne $2,375,000

21 Woodcrest $2,445,000

31 Canyon Ter $2,450,000

35 Canyon Ter $2,490,000

31 Starview $2,495,000

33 Ridgeview $2,525,000

29 Canyon Ter $2,590,000



Wagers on the drop from peak anyone? OK, Ridgeview was a big fall but the others have fallen very little.</blockquote>


34 Cezanne's old listing says it has $575K spent on upgrades. Does that count in the cost basis?



34 Cezanne is current listed for $2.05MM and has been on the market for 58 days.



34 Cezanne does not show ever being sold for $2.2MM - per redfin (too recent perhaps...)</blockquote>


34 Cezanne is competing with 52 and 58 Cezanne listed for $1.75 and $1.6 respectively.
 
I looked up 6 houses from that list at random and 5 were listed as active and one was listed as off market but last sold 2005. I'm just a noob who uses Redfin and don't have access to all the fancy schmancy realtor data you guys do, but is Redfin really that delayed? Or perhaps I'm misunderstanding what the world "closed" means in real estate?
 
[quote author="Oxtail" date=1252559471]I looked up 6 houses from that list at random and 5 were listed as active and one was listed as off market but last sold 2005. I'm just a noob who uses Redfin and don't have access to all the fancy schmancy realtor data you guys do, but is Redfin really that delayed? Or perhaps I'm misunderstanding what the world "closed" means in real estate?</blockquote>


You aren't cherry picking it correctly.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252551486]Face it, people are looking, making offers and buying. And more than at any other time in the past three years, I might add.</blockquote>


OK, I agree this is more or less true. But what conclusions about future prices can you draw from this observation? It's entirely possible to have a hot market one day followed by a 30%+ price decline over the next few years.
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1252558622][quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1252558340][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252558133]Let's examine this little slice of sales:



34 Cezanne $2,200,000

51 Cezanne $2,295,000

20 Cezanne $2,375,000

21 Woodcrest $2,445,000

31 Canyon Ter $2,450,000

35 Canyon Ter $2,490,000

31 Starview $2,495,000

33 Ridgeview $2,525,000

29 Canyon Ter $2,590,000



Wagers on the drop from peak anyone? OK, Ridgeview was a big fall but the others have fallen very little.</blockquote>


34 Cezanne's old listing says it has $575K spent on upgrades. Does that count in the cost basis?



34 Cezanne is current listed for $2.05MM and has been on the market for 58 days.



34 Cezanne does not show ever being sold for $2.2MM - per redfin (too recent perhaps...)</blockquote>


34 Cezanne is competing with 52 and 58 Cezanne listed for $1.75 and $1.6 respectively.</blockquote>


Jesus H Christ. Its funny how much trouble you all are going to to nit-pick the premises, when it's the argument that is most glaringly wrong.
 
[quote author="bigmoneysalsa" date=1252560580][quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1252558622][quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1252558340][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252558133]Let's examine this little slice of sales:



34 Cezanne $2,200,000

51 Cezanne $2,295,000

20 Cezanne $2,375,000

21 Woodcrest $2,445,000

31 Canyon Ter $2,450,000

35 Canyon Ter $2,490,000

31 Starview $2,495,000

33 Ridgeview $2,525,000

29 Canyon Ter $2,590,000



Wagers on the drop from peak anyone? OK, Ridgeview was a big fall but the others have fallen very little.</blockquote>


34 Cezanne's old listing says it has $575K spent on upgrades. Does that count in the cost basis?



34 Cezanne is current listed for $2.05MM and has been on the market for 58 days.



34 Cezanne does not show ever being sold for $2.2MM - per redfin (too recent perhaps...)</blockquote>


34 Cezanne is competing with 52 and 58 Cezanne listed for $1.75 and $1.6 respectively.</blockquote>


Jesus H Christ. Its funny how much trouble you all are going to to nit-pick the premises, when it's the argument that is most glaringly wrong.</blockquote>


I don't know what to say if you don't accept the importance of facts to an argument.
 
[quote author="Oxtail" date=1252559471]I looked up 6 houses from that list at random and 5 were listed as active and one was listed as off market but last sold 2005. I'm just a noob who uses Redfin and don't have access to all the fancy schmancy realtor data you guys do, but is Redfin really that delayed? Or perhaps I'm misunderstanding what the world "closed" means in real estate?</blockquote>


Those are closed (completed) sales. I can't explain why your data aren't right. I also don't know what's happening at the Recorder's office, but property records are a mess these days.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252570835]

I don't know what to say if you don't accept the importance of facts to an argument.</blockquote>


Some facts are important to deciding the soundness of an argument. Others aren't.



For example, I could make an argument that because my name starts with an 'S', I must drive a red car. Obviously this is wrong because a person's name has no bearing on what color car they drive. If you see that my car is blue, are you going to try to disprove the fact that my name starts with 'S'? Or would you ignore my name and sensibly point out that my reasoning is wrong?



Like I said, I more or less agree with your characterization of the market I quoted above. But some like Geotpf are drawing from this the false conclusion that the market has bottomed. I just want to remind people how obviously wrong that line of reasoning is.
 
<em>REAL ESTATE: Low rates and low prices spur signs of improvement in the county housing market.

<strong>September 29, 1993</strong>

Byline: KELLY BARRON

The Orange County Register



Believe it or not, Orange County home sales have been hot this summer.

The formula for the sales surge is simple: Low interest rates, bargain home prices and motivated home sellers have lured buyers back into the market. So much so that August was the busiest sales month in two years. Overall, home sales were up 12 percent from last summer, according to La Jolla-based Dataquick Information Systems. And single-family resales, the largest segment of the market, were up 21 percent.</em>



Sound familiar?



And what happened to home prices in 94, 95, and 96?



What was the difference in the job market?



Was there a backlog of foreclosures then, and what happened with foreclosures in the next three years?



When was the bottom of the last cycle?



Wash, rinse, and repeat. It is not different this time.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252555475]Carry your own water</blockquote>"Get your own data source" is getting tired
 
[quote author="bigmoneysalsa" date=1252560448][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252551486]Face it, people are looking, making offers and buying. And more than at any other time in the past three years, I might add.</blockquote>


OK, I agree this is more or less true. But what conclusions about future prices can you draw from this observation? It's entirely possible to have a hot market one day followed by a 30%+ price decline over the next few years.</blockquote>


There were many, many, many people looking, making offers and buying in 2005 and 2006. It wasn't the bottom then either.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1252554821][quote author="Geotpf" date=1252554436][quote author="BondTrader" date=1252551898][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252551486]Good lord, does the self-delusion (and cross-complimenting) ever end? Face it, people are looking, making offers and buying. And more than at any other time in the past three years, I might add.</blockquote>


TARP Bankers: Thanks for providing a good laugh for guys in the trading room here after lunch.....we need guys like you to help pumping up the stock and real estate market before we dumped all on you, again and again and again.</blockquote>


Irvine house prices sure look like they've bottomed. Look at a dollar/sq ft graph at any website such as Redfin. Now, it might be a temporary, false bottom, and just because prices have bottomed doesn't mean they are going back up any time soon. But prices in Irvine have been basically flat for about a full year now.</blockquote>


That is completely false. There are some areas in Irvine in which the prices have flattened. There are other areas such as Shady Canyon and Turtle Ridge in which the prices are collapsing.</blockquote>


I will fully admit that shady canyon is clearly not at a bottom and those buyers are going to be feeling the pain for a couple years. While I did call a bottom on the first time buyer market (at least how that's defined by irvine), my comment was more directed at the realturds lurking on this site. I'm fairly convinced that most of you are trying to coddle new clients, especially when the dude from SF states he's looking to buy in shady or pelican hill and none of the veterans publicly gives him grief or tries to talk him down.



Also, calling that loft you share with the UCI student a "trading room" is a stretch.
 
From <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/32773345">Meredith Whitney</a>:





<em>"Home prices in the US could fall by another 25 percent because of high unemployment and another leg down will come for stocks, banking analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC Thursday."</em>







<em>"No bank underwrote a loan with 10 percent unemployment on the horizon," Whitney said. "I think there is no doubt that home prices will go down dramatically from here, it's just a question of when."</em>
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1252616480]From <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/32773345">Meredith Whitney</a>:





<em>"Home prices in the US could fall by another 25 percent because of high unemployment and another leg down will come for stocks, banking analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC Thursday."</em>







<em>"No bank underwrote a loan with 10 percent unemployment on the horizon," Whitney said. "I think there is no doubt that home prices will go down dramatically from here, it's just a question of when."</em></blockquote>


So basically, the 25% was pulled directly out of her derriere.
 
This must have been missed:



34 Cezanne $2,200,000

51 Cezanne $2,295,000

20 Cezanne $2,375,000

21 Woodcrest $2,445,000

31 Canyon Ter $2,450,000

35 Canyon Ter $2,490,000

31 Starview $2,495,000

33 Ridgeview $2,525,000

29 Canyon Ter $2,590,000



Why isn't anyone commenting on the fact that 3500 sf homes are selling for $2.5 million in Turtle Ridge? Awgee's "it wasn't the bottom in 2005 either" argument was nonsensical - I need more. Maybe if you had said prices were collapsing and will resume again" I could go along, but you didn't. Please address the facts as they are.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252617606]This must have been missed:



34 Cezanne $2,200,000

51 Cezanne $2,295,000

20 Cezanne $2,375,000

21 Woodcrest $2,445,000

31 Canyon Ter $2,450,000

35 Canyon Ter $2,490,000

31 Starview $2,495,000

33 Ridgeview $2,525,000

29 Canyon Ter $2,590,000



Why isn't anyone commenting on the fact that 3500 sf homes are selling for $2.5 million in Turtle Ridge? Awgee's "it wasn't the bottom in 2005 either" argument was nonsensical - I need more. Maybe if you had said prices were collapsing and will resume again" I could go along, but you didn't. Please address the facts as they are.</blockquote>


I am sorry I guess you missed several of my post pointing out that 34 Cezanne was currently on the market for $2.05. Included $500K+ in upgrades, is competing with several matching comps that are prices $300-400K less...



I am not going to bother with the rest considering the premise you are trying to substantiate (that prices in higher end areas are not collapsing) is patently absurd as even the first example you posted demonstrates.
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1252619076][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252617606]This must have been missed:



34 Cezanne $2,200,000

51 Cezanne $2,295,000

20 Cezanne $2,375,000

21 Woodcrest $2,445,000

31 Canyon Ter $2,450,000

35 Canyon Ter $2,490,000

31 Starview $2,495,000

33 Ridgeview $2,525,000

29 Canyon Ter $2,590,000



Why isn't anyone commenting on the fact that 3500 sf homes are selling for $2.5 million in Turtle Ridge? Awgee's "it wasn't the bottom in 2005 either" argument was nonsensical - I need more. Maybe if you had said prices were collapsing and will resume again" I could go along, but you didn't. Please address the facts as they are.</blockquote>


I am sorry I guess you missed several of my post pointing out that 34 Cezanne was currently on the market for $2.05. Included $500K+ in upgrades, is competing with several matching comps that are prices $300-400K less...



I am not going to bother with the rest considering the premise you are trying to substantiate (that prices in higher end areas are not collapsing) is patently absurd as even the first example you posted demonstrates.</blockquote>


You are correct - my mistake. They nevertheless closing again, most at around $1.8m.
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1252619966]Ok, so according to your data recent ASKS are ~25% of slightly less recent closings.



Looks like a collapsing market to me...</blockquote>


And it looks like a plateau to me.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252620127][quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1252619966]Ok, so according to your data recent ASKS are ~25% of slightly less recent closings.



Looks like a collapsing market to me...</blockquote>


And it looks like a plateau to me.</blockquote>


Ok. YOU can go buy a place.



I will wait happily on the sidelines. I'll buy when Kiesel does.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/2009708518_housringpredict23.html
 
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