How soon until Bitcoin crashes?

[Liar Loan]

With yesterday's drop, Bitcoin is now lagging the broader stock market (S&P, Dow) over 12 months.  The current crash ($69k --> $43k) is at -38%.

(Although measuring a peak-to-trough crash is now called #cherrypicking by CalBears and IHO...LOL)

For something that volatile, looking back in history, they are pretty short lived ~3months. We are 2 months from the top currently. In the end, it's not really an issue if you're not selling.

Well, now we are seven months and 55% from the peak.  Still HODLing strong?

It all depends on your point of entry. It's still up over 300% since the start of this thread in Nov 2017. Up almost 1000% if you got in at the lows in 2019.

My numbers say it's only up 170% since this thread started, but either way I don't know if there's any reason to be bullish in the short term.  The chart looks extremely bearish with the price breaking through the prior support levels of 2021. 

Bitcoin has a history of 80% price declines every few years.  Many people felt like this time would be different because institutions were getting in on the action, but it's starting to look like that won't matter. 

If Bitcoin's prior history is any indicator of where things are headed, this cycle could bottom out at $14k (80% decline peak-to-trough).  Of course, there is no prior history for crypto during a Fed-driven recession, so we'll have to see how far things go.

 

[Kenkoko]

anyone who entered that market after January 8, 2021 has lost money...every single one of them.

Not sure what your point is unless you're just realizing we're in a big market correction? 

This isn't unique to Bitcoin. 

Facebook, Amazon, Tesla, Netflix, the entire Nasdaq, all lost money since Jan 2021.

 

[morekaos]

Yah but those are real companies providing real goods and services. The stocks can be hedged and shorted. Bitcoin?not so much your either long or not long.  Prices there are supported by hopes and prayers not products, services, earnings revenues and assets?.unicorns and rainbows cannot sustain price.

 

[morekaos]

Pile on...

CRYPTO WORLD
Bitcoin investors are panicking as a controversial crypto experiment unravels

Crypto investors are keeping a close eye on UST, a controversial stablecoin, as the organization that supports it is sitting on billions of dollars in bitcoin.
Terra?s UST token sank below 70 cents late Monday, as holders continued to flee the controversial stablecoin.
Traders worry the project might have sold, or will sell, a large portion of its bitcoin to prop up UST.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/10/bit...rce=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail

 

[Liar Loan]

This guy is speculating with national wealth on his phone.

El Salvador?s Bitcoin Losses Swell to 28% as Bukele Buys More

President Nayib Bukele?s Bitcoin gambit is becoming onerous for cash-strapped El Salvador but that isn?t stopping him from adding to his stockpile.

Bukele?s bought 2,301 Bitcoins for the government since making them legal tender back in September, based on his announcements on Twitter. That?s 28% less than the $103 million Bukele paid for them, according to calculations by Bloomberg.

Bukele has shown himself to be a true believer in crypto, winning attention and admirers from around the world in the process, and says he trades the nation?s stockpile of coins on his phone. The 40-year-old has said he will push ahead with plans to issue a $1 billion blockchain bond to fund the construction of Bitcoin City, an income and capital gains tax-free jurisdiction he hopes to create on the country?s coast.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-swell-to-28-as-bukele-buys-more?cmpId=google

 

[Liar Loan]

This is going to get interesting...

Bitcoin Touches 11-Month Low While TerraUSD Extends Declines

The area around $30,000 had been an ?especially sensitive zone,? for Bitcoin, wrote James Malcolm, head of foreign exchange and crypto research at UBS. That?s where mining economics turn negative, ? which could potentially lead to increased coin sales by this key cohort,? he said. He added that long-term accumulators like MicroStrategy Inc. begin to fall below historical breakevens.

?Below this there is little technical support until the low-20ks, where margin calls kick in,? Malcolm wrote.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ter-than-expected-cpi-data?srnd=technology-vp

 

[Liar Loan]

This is just sad and I'm not at all joking here.  The top posts on the /TerraLuna reddit are suicide watch posts:

For everyone panicking, here are some National helpline numbers. (pinned thread)https://www.reddit.com/r/terraluna/comments/un57df/for_everyone_panicking_here_are_some_national/

For those considering suicide, here?s my story of attempted suicide.https://www.reddit.com/r/terraluna/comments/un0fni/for_those_considering_suicide_heres_my_story_of/

My ex-colleague attempted suicidehttps://www.reddit.com/r/terraluna/comments/un40h4/my_excolleague_attempted_suicide/

I lost over 450k usd, I cannot pay the bank. I will lose my home soon. I'll become homeless. suicide is the only way out for mehttps://www.reddit.com/r/terraluna/...t_over_450k_usd_i_cannot_pay_the_bank_i_will/

For background, Luna was a top 10 coin that went from $119 to $0.30 in about a month (most of it this past week).  Lots of foolish people placed a significant chunk of their savings into it because it was backed by an algorithmic "stable" coin pegged to the US dollar.  Not only that but it was the "future of finance", etc.

Ultimately, I think this is how the crypto mania will end for many people and it's not going to be pretty.

 

[zovall]

What happened to Terra is a big deal in crypto... They were providing the promise of a decentralized stable coin (UST) and there were many different teams building an ecosystem on top of it all. Crypto overall has been crashing hard and Terra's failure to maintain the peg (whether it was an attack or not) is huge setback.

 

[morekaos]

COIN is going the way of HOOD  and for that matter RIVN.....Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!!!
https://youtu.be/YWyCCJ6B2WE

 

[morekaos]

What happened to Terra is a big deal in crypto... They were providing the promise of a decentralized stable coin (UST) and there were many different teams building an ecosystem on top of it all. Crypto overall has been crashing hard and Terra's failure to maintain the peg (whether it was an attack or not) is huge setback.

Like Lehman or as I always compared it to, Enron....

Could Terra fall prove to be Lehman Brothers moment for crytocurrencies?
Explainer: Questions asked about whether other ?stablecoins? may follow suit ? and if so, what else?

Billions were wiped off the cryptocurrency market this week with the collapse of the Terra ?stablecoin?. But is its failure just another example of the here-today-gone-tomorrow nature of the sector, or could it be the beginning of a wider downturn?
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/may/11/terra-price-cryptocurrency-stablecoin

 

[zubs]

do we see blood in the streets yet?
time to buy?

perhaps a little longer....

 

[Liar Loan]

What happened to Terra is a big deal in crypto... They were providing the promise of a decentralized stable coin (UST) and there were many different teams building an ecosystem on top of it all. Crypto overall has been crashing hard and Terra's failure to maintain the peg (whether it was an attack or not) is huge setback.

Like Lehman or as I always compared it to, Enron....

Could Terra fall prove to be Lehman Brothers moment for crytocurrencies?
Explainer: Questions asked about whether other ?stablecoins? may follow suit ? and if so, what else?

Billions were wiped off the cryptocurrency market this week with the collapse of the Terra ?stablecoin?. But is its failure just another example of the here-today-gone-tomorrow nature of the sector, or could it be the beginning of a wider downturn?
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/may/11/terra-price-cryptocurrency-stablecoin

Tether is supposed to be pegged to the US dollar by actual reserves, but it's believed they don't actually have the reserves they claim to.  Now that stable coins are on the SEC's radar it's going to lead to greater scrutiny.  The SEC chief just likened stable coins to a money laundering scheme as they allow black market participants to participate in crypto while sidestepping anti-money laundering and know your customer laws.  If Tether goes down, the entire stable coin ecosystem goes down, and stable coins underpin so much of the activity in crypto that it could lead to a cataclysm.

do we see blood in the streets yet?
time to buy?

perhaps a little longer....

The bleeding has only just begun... I don't know that the streets are filled with it yet.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

COIN is going the way of HOOD  and for that matter RIVN.....Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!!!

So now you shifted to Rivian over Telsa?

So funny.

 

[morekaos]

COIN is going the way of HOOD  and for that matter RIVN.....Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!!!

So now you shifted to Rivian over Telsa?

So funny.

I made money on the short side?like when WM, countywide and New century bit it.  I don?t care as long as I?m on The right side of the trade.  Unicorns and rainbows.

 

[morekaos]

And the hits just keep on comn!

Coinbase warns its 98million customers they may lose ALL their crypto if company goes bankrupt after shares plunged 27% this week

In a new SEC filing, the company referred to customers as 'unsecured creditors' meaning they would not have access to their crypto if the company went belly-up
The company's CEO Brian Armstrong, who purchased a $133 million Bel Air compound in January, told shareholders: 'You money safe with Coinbase'
Coinbase attributed its poor earnings report to a decrease in users and the falling price of bitcoin
The company says that they hold $256 billion in crypto and fiat money on behalf of their customers
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...tomers-lose-crypto-company-goes-bankrupt.html
https://youtu.be/WQZqJ_-WAO8

 

[The Motor Court Company]

Crypto.com bought naming rights to Laker's arena for 20 years...lol they absolutely paid  at top of the market, and they may not exist 5 years from now, let alone 20...

 

[morekaos]

I hate always being right?.

The end is neigh...Repent!!! Repent!! ;D ;D >

The Staples Center?home of the Los Angeles Lakers?is getting a new name: the Crypto.com Arena

https://fortune.com/2021/11/17/crypto-staples-center-new-title-sponsor-renaming-los-angeles-lakers-clippers/

The Stadium Curse: Naming Deals Gone Bust

When a company spends millions to put their company name on a major stadium, controversy often follows as the value of such an expenditure is difficult to track. Major stadium naming deals have also seen another trend: corporate failures.

Throughout the booms and busts of the American economy, many companies who have chosen to embark on a naming rights contract have seen their companies suffer financially or even collapse within several years of a naming deal. Although external, indirectly related factors are certainly at play, the correlation is quite impressive: In many cases naming deals parallel a corporate ?boom? spending mentality that contributes to a company?s weakness when a bubble bursts.

https://www.cnbc.com/2010/01/20/The-Stadium-Curse:-Naming-Deals-Gone-Bust.html

 

[irvinehomeowner]

COIN is going the way of HOOD  and for that matter RIVN.....Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!!!

So now you shifted to Rivian over Telsa?

So funny.

I made money on the short side?like when WM, countywide and New century bit it.  I don?t care as long as I?m on The right side of the trade.  Unicorns and rainbows.

Keep dancing... you called for the collapse of Telsa... hasn't happened. Smoke and mirrors.

 

[morekaos]

Yet.

 

[morekaos]

Don?t try to catch a falling knife?

The cryptocurrency bubble bursts? but is it a sign of a stock market crash to come? Digital investors lose fortunes as Ethereum sheds 20% of its value in 24 hours, Luna drops NINETY-EIGHT per cent and Coinbase warns customers may lose ALL their money


Ethereum has plunged 20 per cent in 24 hours as part of the latest crypto crash
Bitcoin has also plunged 11.24 per cent as investors suffer heavy losses
Luna, another large cryptocurrency, lost almost all of its value overnight
Despite the downturn, traditional tech stocks are faring even worse
Amazon has lost 30 per cent of its value in just one month of trading
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...digital-currency-loses-20-value-24-hours.html