Irvinecommuter said:
I can't speak to your particular situation but I am pretty certain that rates are going up in the next few years so there is no reason to believe that you can refinance in a few years at better rates. Also, with the prices as high as they are, it makes the move-up strategy more and more difficult. So, a lot of people are just buying the most house they can and staying there for awhile.
ARM products can be good for certain situations but I would say that it's not for most people.
As for the tax deduction...I don't think anyone gets a 30 year fixed because of the tax deductions. It's just an ancillary consideration.
The move-up market is mostly caused by family situations. I have several friends in the OC area that moved up to larger homes in the last year - all did it because of an expanding family. You might be surprised how many people live in apartments, rentals or small homes that can afford buying a huge home with 20%+ down payment.
I know that as soon as my wife got pregnant she insisted we move out of our 2 bedroom apartment and into a house. I pointed out that all of our neighbors had kids so obviously it was possible to raise 1 baby in a 2 bedroom apartment and she pointed out that our neighbors probably couldn't afford a nice house like we could or they'd move too. She won and we moved and stopped saving as much.