How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
irvinehomeowner said:
Liar Loan said:
irvinehomeowner said:
So 4 years later we are finally going to see that Irvine pain?
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2018 was a housing recession localized to Irvine, CA. 
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So now it was a housing recession? Just because you keep saying it doesn't make it true.

What was the percentage drop again? And did you count new home sales?

Post a chart that shows us this so-called "recession" (or "pain").

Coastal counties will fare better, but I would not expect them to escape unscathed.
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So not your safe havens anymore? Did you find your posts on this? Didn't put any words in your mouth... just showed your assertion was flawed.

As for rates... companies will get creative, Owning is now advertising a 3.75% 10-year fixed (ARM variant) so there is still ways for people to finance.
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You have seen the charts from Larry, Cares, Martin.  Please take your pick.

As for your geography lesson:  Irvine is in a coastal county. 

Glad I could clear that up for you.
 
Liar Loan said:
You have seen the charts from Larry, Cares, Martin.  Please take your pick.

As for your geography lesson:  Irvine is in a coastal county. 

Glad I could clear that up for you.
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Typical LL, already coming up with excuses.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
daedalus said:
irvinehomeowner said:
As for rates... companies will get creative
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I'm not sure you realize how scary that prospect is.  The last time "creative financing" was all the rage, things didn't end well. 
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It depends on the product but also on the underwriting.

O-ARMs (the ones with option payments and deferred interest) is actually okay if used responsibly and people really qualify for the P&I payment (not the minimum).

Today, underwriting is more stringent (although I hear ads for "undocumented income" loans) and the ARMs are "safer".

I've used various mortgage products through my lifetime (for a long time I was non-W2 worker)... if you know your finances... you can find a something that fits in your budget even in a high interest environment.

The dangerous part is the people who don't actually qualify or can't manage their money. Less of those today... but yes, the danger is still there.
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I would argue lots of Americans do not know how to manage their money. When more than half of the nation cannot afford a 1-2k emergency, that is concerning and speaks volumes.
 
Option ARM loans are Non-QM loans and a hedge fund with gonads of steel (or, to be inclusive, ovaries of iron...) could craft a product similar to the Option ARM's of ye olden days. The problem is that no MBS buyer wants to buy these turds at any price. Servicing these loans is also an absolute nightmare. Their overall loan performance historically has been less than stellar. In a rising rate, possible falling equity, RE Market Option ARM's go sour quickly.

;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D "if used responsibly..." (breath)  ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D - We are talking about American's here, AMIRITE?

;)
 
sleepy5136 said:
I would argue lots of Americans do not know how to manage their money. When more than half of the nation cannot afford a 1-2k emergency, that is concerning and speaks volumes.
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I totally agree.

Which argues the point of can people be trusted to rent and save/invest the difference?
 
Ready2Downsize said:
OCtoSV said:
You also lucked into your prime earning years corresponding with a 40 yr bull market in bonds and corresponding decline in long term int rates. Double coupons - I recall those were automatic at Ralphs. We used to use them in the mid 90s but our earnings have increased by almost 10x since then, reflective of the massive wage inflation skilled workers have seen in the Internet age, so I guess Gen X got something after all as my dad's best salary before retirement in the late 80s was 1/8 of what I made last year.
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Because we were young and had entered the job market right near the top of interest rates we benefited by inflation ratcheting up or salaries, bigley but on the way there, Boomers had inflation for a decade, year in and year out. By 1984, nurses were being cancelled and sent home early. New RNs had to start out in nursing homes just to find a job.

My friend's dad was in aerospace and lost his job. I walked to high school and and we stopped by her house to "pick her up" and he was always sitting with the paper combing the job listings. I remember thinking, GET A JOB and thinking it was sad that his wife was picking up every substitute teaching job she could get (she had retired as a school principal), but my mom told me it's HARD to get an aerospace job not knowing my parents were worried my dad would lose HIS job which was tied to aerospace.

The builder gave us a loan of 12.5% straight 5 year balloon and I was always worried what would happen when 5 years was up. Luckily rates dropped to 10% and we were able to refinance but there were others in the neighborhood who lost their house with those loans.

When I was in grade school most moms were stay at home moms and had only one car. Somewhere around then, moms started getting a job for a few extras. Sad today double incomes are required.

I was able to save money other ways though. Since I worked evenings, I only paid for a babysitter for a couple hours when I went back to work and worked every weekend so we didn't spend a lot on childcare. We were lucky she didn't kick us to the curb because sometimes my hubby would be late if the bus was late or he missed a connection. The preschool we went to was a morning only mom participation so it was really cheap (I think we paid $20 a month, worked one morning per week, provided snack once a month) and we even got a disneyland tix for mom and child at the end of the year. I never thought my kids learned any less and was happy to watch what was going on in person.

It wasn't all rosy. Money was really tight for us for many years and we got absolutely NO help from any grandparents whose attitudes were that they put in their time and now it's my time to raise my kids by myself. Their loss. But we did benefit big time from inflation ramping up or salaries. We would have done better if we were a few years older but that's the way it goes. You make your own luck.
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I appreciate your walk down memory lane - I'm younger than you but remember the tenuous job situation my father experienced as an engineer (non-aerospace) in the early 80, though later once i was in my career I realized most people that get laid off are the ones that are disliked or have no comprehension of "managing up". Sounds like you learned all the right lessons growing up and built a nice life for yourself and your family. Very sorry to hear about the cancer - funding retirement healthcare expenses is a definite wildcard based on one's health trajectory.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
sleepy5136 said:
I would argue lots of Americans do not know how to manage their money. When more than half of the nation cannot afford a 1-2k emergency, that is concerning and speaks volumes.
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I totally agree.

Which argues the point of can people be trusted to rent and save/invest the difference?
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Well, let?s be nice to renters. They continue to keep the economy alive with their spendings. We need moar spendings please. Responsibly, of course. Hopefully.
 
Peak or Not Yet the Peak?

There will be highs and lows over the next few months, and I'm sure many new home buyers are wondering if they should pull the trigger on a long term lock. At this time it's hard to say if you would be locking at a "worse case scenario" peak, or protecting yourself from seeing a low 6 handle rate - assuming you lock a 30 fixed of course. Is there much risk with a long term lock considering you've got a one time float down and a return / credit of your long term rate deposit?

If anyone is at least 90 days or more from delivery, and considering a long term rate lock (fixed or ARM) please PM me with questions you may have. Please note I cannot answer "what's a long term rate lock like today" in an open thread as every situation is wildly different from each others... (FICO/Price/Delivery/Term/Employment/etc, ad infinitum)

My .02c
 
Liar Loan said:
Liar Loan said:
The 30 Yr Fixed has breached 5%. 

tic, tic, tic, tic....
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Another week, another .25%

The 30 Yr Fixed is now 5.25%

tic, tic, tic...
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The more rates go up, the more current homeowners are less likely to sell. Sorry homebuyers. Rising rates is just bad news in more than one way for ya all.
 
Ready2Downsize said:
Liar Loan said:
Liar Loan said:
The 30 Yr Fixed has breached 5%. 

tic, tic, tic, tic....
Click to expand...

Another week, another .25%

The 30 Yr Fixed is now 5.25%

tic, tic, tic...
Click to expand...

The more rates go up, the more current homeowners are less likely to sell. Sorry homebuyers. Rising rates is just bad news in more than one way for ya all.
Click to expand...

All realtors, appraisers, title officers, escrow officers, and loan officers should just start looking for new work!
 
Liar Loan said:
Ready2Downsize said:
Liar Loan said:
Liar Loan said:
The 30 Yr Fixed has breached 5%. 

tic, tic, tic, tic....
Click to expand...

Another week, another .25%

The 30 Yr Fixed is now 5.25%

tic, tic, tic...
Click to expand...

The more rates go up, the more current homeowners are less likely to sell. Sorry homebuyers. Rising rates is just bad news in more than one way for ya all.
Click to expand...

All realtors, appraisers, title officers, escrow officers, and loan officers should just start looking for new work!
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Nah. They can get work in areas that are still growing, where new builders are still putting up houses.

Eventually the fed is going to step in and do something to stop rates from rising anyway........... cuz the government is not going to be able to service their own debt if rates just keep going up and we can't have a U.S. debt crisis on our hands and they know that.
 
freedomcm said:
Aren't Canadian mortgages all 5-year duration?

The California Court Company said:
What if we can be like Canada where you can take the mortgage with you even when you sell and buy another house?
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Nope, Canadian mortgages are all ARMs....no fixed rate loans from what I was told.
 
I remember it was only a few weeks ago CalBears was calling me names and saying low inventory was the culprit.  Nope.

Purchase Mortgages Crater in Latest Weekly Survey

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 8 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

?The drop in purchase applications was evident across all loan types. Prospective homebuyers have pulled back this spring, as they continue to face limited options of homes for sale along with higher costs from increasing mortgage rates and prices. The recent decrease in purchase applications is an indication of potential weakness in home sales in the coming months.?
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/04/mba-mortgage-applications-decrease-in_01084909843.html
 
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