Liar Loan said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
lnc said:
Now the new question for this thread is how high can we go?
30 year fixed up to 4.5 - 4.75 in 2023?
Not gonna happen. We might top out around 4% +/- a bit before heading back down.
It only took a month to hit 4% rates and the Fed hasn't even taken significant action yet. Consumer inflation is still rising and now sits at 7.5%.
Care to revise your prediction?
USC last chance to revise.
MND is showing a 4.95% average for 30 Yr conforming, with jumbos at 4.20%.
Lender profitability is in the crapper right now, so they can't afford to be caught flat-footed holding lower coupon garbage on their credit lines. In theory, they should be hedged against these rapid daily price moves, but it doesn't always work out that way in practice. Hedging is still an art, not a science.
The reason I'm getting into the weeds here is I think lenders are trying to get
ahead of further price deterioration in the MBS market. The way to do that is by increasing rates faster than Fed actions would indicate is necessary. That's part of the reason the spread between 30 Yr Fixed rates and 10 Yr Treasuries is rapidly widening. At the end of the day, mortgage rates are set by lenders that need to make a profit, and Treasuries are set by supply/demand in the bond market.
Maybe SGIP or Cares have additional flavor or a completely different opinion to share?