How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...

[Liar Loan]

Fed Hawks Seek Half-Point Hikes With Data ?Screaming? Action

Two Federal Reserve hawks said they would argue for raising interest rates in half percentage-point steps in the face of economic data ?screaming? for prompt action as inflation soars.

Officials increased rates by a quarter point at their meeting this week and forecast six more such moves by the end of the year, according to their median estimate. The projections, known as the dot plot, also showed that almost half of the 16 current policy makers wanted to move faster.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who dissented in favor of a half-point hike and implementing a balance sheet reduction plan this week, said that he favored raising rates above 3% this year

Speaking a short while later, Governor Christopher Waller said the war in Ukraine was the reason he didn?t push for a half-point increase at the meeting, but that was definitely on the table for upcoming meetings.

?I really favor front-loading our rate hikes, that we need to do more withdrawal of accommodation now if we want to have an impact on inflation later this year and next year,? Waller said. ?In that sense, the way to front-load it is to pull some rate hikes forward, which would imply 50 basis points at one or multiple meetings in the near future.?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...k-half-point-hikes-amid-data-screaming-action

 

[AccidentalAnalytics]

Seeing LL post is like looking at a broken clock.

Fed Hawks Seek Half-Point Hikes With Data ?Screaming? Action

Two Federal Reserve hawks said they would argue for raising interest rates in half percentage-point steps in the face of economic data ?screaming? for prompt action as inflation soars.

Officials increased rates by a quarter point at their meeting this week and forecast six more such moves by the end of the year, according to their median estimate. The projections, known as the dot plot, also showed that almost half of the 16 current policy makers wanted to move faster.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who dissented in favor of a half-point hike and implementing a balance sheet reduction plan this week, said that he favored raising rates above 3% this year

Speaking a short while later, Governor Christopher Waller said the war in Ukraine was the reason he didn?t push for a half-point increase at the meeting, but that was definitely on the table for upcoming meetings.

?I really favor front-loading our rate hikes, that we need to do more withdrawal of accommodation now if we want to have an impact on inflation later this year and next year,? Waller said. ?In that sense, the way to front-load it is to pull some rate hikes forward, which would imply 50 basis points at one or multiple meetings in the near future.?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...k-half-point-hikes-amid-data-screaming-action

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I predict rates will go up or down some time in the future.

 

[Cares]

I predict rates will go up or down some time in the future.

100% prediction accuracy

 

[irvinebullhousing]

I think FED will do this, ha ha,

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1505884988662767616?s=20&t=aq4a0s65iSzELbRG22dhKw

 

[Liar Loan]

Seeing LL post is like looking at a broken clock.

Fed Hawks Seek Half-Point Hikes With Data ?Screaming? Action

Two Federal Reserve hawks said they would argue for raising interest rates in half percentage-point steps in the face of economic data ?screaming? for prompt action as inflation soars.

Officials increased rates by a quarter point at their meeting this week and forecast six more such moves by the end of the year, according to their median estimate. The projections, known as the dot plot, also showed that almost half of the 16 current policy makers wanted to move faster.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who dissented in favor of a half-point hike and implementing a balance sheet reduction plan this week, said that he favored raising rates above 3% this year

Speaking a short while later, Governor Christopher Waller said the war in Ukraine was the reason he didn?t push for a half-point increase at the meeting, but that was definitely on the table for upcoming meetings.

?I really favor front-loading our rate hikes, that we need to do more withdrawal of accommodation now if we want to have an impact on inflation later this year and next year,? Waller said. ?In that sense, the way to front-load it is to pull some rate hikes forward, which would imply 50 basis points at one or multiple meetings in the near future.?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...k-half-point-hikes-amid-data-screaming-action

And today pricing on Treasuries and MBS got significantly worse on the news.

MBS Live Morning: Sharply Higher Yields After Another Weekend Head Fake

For two Fridays in a row, bonds have leveled off in a way that offered some hope for consolidation and stability.  And for two Mondays in a row, the week is starting off with heavy selling crushing that hope. In today's case, it's coming from hawkish central bankers, and an over-the-weekend oil price surge that has Fed rate hike expectations up and over 2% by the end of 2022.

That means a 25bp hike at every meeting plus at least one 50bp hike!

10yr yields are 8bps higher at 2.23+ to start the day and MBS are down more than a quarter point.

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-03212022

 

[Liar Loan]

tic, tic, tic.... (the sound of a broken clock being correct again)

Calculated Risk: Mortgage Rates Moving Closer to 5%

Yesterday, a large mortgage lender shared their rate sheet with me that showed that they were quoting 30-year mortgages at 5.00% with zero points. There are other lenders with lower rates.

Mortgage News Daily reports that the most prevalent 30-year fixed rate is now at 4.66% for top tier scenarios.

Mortgage lenders were already roughly an eighth of a point higher in terms of 30yr fixed rates this morning. After Powell, rates nearly doubled that move (i.e. some lenders are a quarter of a point higher in rate versus Friday's latest levels). That makes today one of only 5 days with this big of a spike in more than a decade.
https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/mortgage-rates-moving-closer-to-5

 

[irvinebullhousing]

The FED is an idiot. They should have done this since early last year, instead of twiddle their thumbs and risk of loosing  credibility now more than ever.

With everything going on. I am suprise that rate not yet at 8%. It will get there, later rather than sooner, and in the mean time the cost of everything is beyond through the roof.

Like I said before, they are doing dis-service to the American people when they stick with this BS, transitory. They want to be aggressive in combatting inflation. Oh, and what do they do? .25 hike and call this a day. They are smarter than me, so why are they coming accross so dumb? Then you have China beg not to raise rate, hell, if China beg for something, I would double down and bring rate to 10%.

 

[morekaos]

Was screaming that almost a year ago...

They know it but want to hide the facts...bad optics but the reality is not easy to hide...The Carter years are coming back.  New York is already there.. ;D ;D >

White House has quietly met with economists fearing inflation could last YEARS - not months - despite publicly saying it would be a 'temporary bottleneck' after the largest surge in prices in 13 years
Top Biden economic aides met with economist Larry Summers Tuesday
Summers has warned about inflation and inveighed against Biden's American Rescue Plan
Fed Chair Powell testified in Congress this week after the government released figures showing a 5.4 per cent jump in inflation in June compared to a year ago
It was the largest spike in 13 years
Powell said inflation will remain 'elevated'
On Thursday Powell called it a 'big uptick'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9793363/White-House-secretly-indicating-inflation-YEARS.html

 

[Ready2Downsize]

Once you get inflation you can't put that genie back in the bottle. It's like a snowman rolling down hill collecting more snow as he moves.

Inflation leads to less buying power which leads to wage increase demands which leads to increased prices  etc etc and in this day the government has to put their stupid hands in the pot handing out more and more money to try to reduce the effects which will only lengthen the pain.

The cure is a deep recession wherein people don't buy stuff.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/inflation-rate-cpi

 

[Ready2Downsize]

The FED is an idiot. They should have done this since early last year, instead of twiddle their thumbs and risk of loosing  credibility now more than ever.

With everything going on. I am suprise that rate not yet at 8%. It will get there, later rather than sooner, and in the mean time the cost of everything is beyond through the roof.

Like I said before, they are doing dis-service to the American people when they stick with this BS, transitory. They want to be aggressive in combatting inflation. Oh, and what do they do? .25 hike and call this a day. They are smarter than me, so why are they coming accross so dumb? Then you have China beg not to raise rate, hell, if China beg for something, I would double down and bring rate to 10%.

I lived thru the Volker recession and I thought it was the worst recession I have lived thru. Me and the hubby were young then but we had newly minted jobs in very good areas and we were cheap labor so it didn't matter but down the road even nurses couldn't find a job and had to go to nursing homes out of school.

He topped it out by raising rates bigly but that was after rates had been going up for years.

Mortgages should go back to 7% where they were in the 60's and the 90's. People can get adjustable rates, except the prices are so dang high now, thanks to the FED....... oops.

 

[morekaos]

Once you get inflation you can't put that genie back in the bottle. It's like a snowman rolling down hill collecting more snow as he moves.

Inflation leads to less buying power which leads to wage increase demands which leads to increased prices  etc etc and in this day the government has to put their stupid hands in the pot handing out more and more money to try to reduce the effects which will only lengthen the pain.

The cure is a deep recession wherein people don't buy stuff.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/inflation-rate-cpi

The snowball grows....
California grocery workers vote on strike authorization
Thousands of southern and central California grocery workers have started voting on whether to authorize their union to call a strike against several major supermarket chains

The union said the next day that the companies' wage proposal amounted to a 60-cent increase that was ?shockingly low? and well below workers' cost-of-living needs. Employees were asking for a $5-an-hour raise, among other proposals.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireS...ry-workers-vote-strike-authorization-83588920

 

[sgip]

Around Summer of 2021 I had been telling my borrowers and business contacts that the RE environment seems awfully reminiscent of 2006-2007.

I should have picked 1979-1980 as my example of where we were heading - a weak and clueless president (Carter), Russia invading a sovereign nation (Afghanistan), rampant inflation, a crucial election, plus a Fed well behind the curve.

My .0002c (adjusted for inflation)

 

[Kenkoko]

It's fine to blame the Federal Reserve, but let's not conflate fiscal policy and monetary policy.

We don't get here without years of loose fiscal policy.

We've been pumping aggregate demand directly through increase in government spending for decades. Now people are shocked we finally have inflation when supply can't keep up with demand?

This and the trillions of stimulus since Trump had nothing to do with the Federal Reserve.

 

[Ready2Downsize]

It's fine to blame the Federal Reserve, but let's not conflate fiscal policy and monetary policy.

We don't get here without years of loose fiscal policy.

We've been pumping aggregate demand directly through increase in government spending for decades. Now people are shocked we finally have inflation when supply can't keep up with demand?

This and the trillions of stimulus since Trump had nothing to do with the Federal Reserve.

That too but it didn't start with Trump. Bush shoved a small amount of money and then came bail out Obama. That imo changed our attitudes forever. The government is always there for you. No need to worry. There will always be free money around the corner to equalize the people. Problem is it goes right up to the people who don't need it and the ones who cry for more because they just can't make a living wage end up worse and worse off.

The haves and the have nots just keep getting farther and farther apart and that is just not a good thing. I'm not a socialist. Socialists might think it's a good thing to just keep pouring money at the poor even if it makes things worse in the longer term.

 

[Ready2Downsize]

Around Summer of 2021 I had been telling my borrowers and business contacts that the RE environment seems awfully reminiscent of 2006-2007.

I should have picked 1979-1980 as my example of where we were heading - a weak and clueless president (Carter), Russia invading a sovereign nation (Afghanistan), rampant inflation, a crucial election, plus a Fed well behind the curve.

My .0002c (adjusted for inflation)

But inflation was a problem for years before 1979-80. Year on year on year. Prices just kept going up but in those days no one knew you were on welfare and taking food stamps because it was shameful to live off the government.

We didn't go to fast food places unless we were not going to be home for some reason. We knew how to cook and we had our families eating with us. There was no daily lattes either.

When I was a nurse then (on the evening shift), EVERYONE brought their dinner to work and microwaved it.

There is a whole lot of cutting people can do but omg we can't do THAT! Please Prez......... we need more $$$$$.

 

[sgip]

In our decade long "consequence free world" everything either has been or should be "free"..... Until it's not.

 

[lnc]

Now the new question for this thread is how high can we go?

30 year fixed up to 4.5 - 4.75 in 2023?

Looks like I'm off by a year, average 30 year fixed conforming mortgage hit 4.72 today.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/mor...ists-to-lower-their-home-sales-forecasts.html

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage hit 4.72% Tuesday, moving 26 basis points higher since just Friday, according to Mortgage News Daily.

Most estimates at the end of last year had the average 30-year mortgage rate hitting 4.5% by the end of 2022, but the war in Ukraine, rising oil prices and inflation have all lit a fire under interest rates.

 

[Liar Loan]

Now the new question for this thread is how high can we go?

30 year fixed up to 4.5 - 4.75 in 2023?

Looks like I'm off by a year, average 30 year fixed conforming mortgage hit 4.72 today.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/mor...ists-to-lower-their-home-sales-forecasts.html

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage hit 4.72% Tuesday, moving 26 basis points higher since just Friday, according to Mortgage News Daily.

Most estimates at the end of last year had the average 30-year mortgage rate hitting 4.5% by the end of 2022, but the war in Ukraine, rising oil prices and inflation have all lit a fire under interest rates.

Average Jumbo rates also hit 4.10% today.  I'm guessing the banking contacts mentioned earlier in this thread can do better than that, but it's the direction and swiftness of the move that matters.

If the Dallas Fed's predicted recession leads to a liquidity crisis, bank balance sheets will no longer be flush with cash and Jumbo rates will skyrocket past the conforming 30 year rate.  This was last seen in March 2020 at the start of the covid mini-recession.  Unlike last time, it will be hard to justify flooding the system with new rounds of stimulus unless inflation rapidly cools off. 

Then again, the Fed has been known to act recklessly in the past.

 

[teddybear]

Yep! go buy your 7bucks frapp and tip $3 and then ask the prez for free rent, loan forgiveness, money for sex change, lol. And why work when can I be an instagram influencer.