How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...

[Ready2Downsize]

I don't know. They are taking up the entire lower floor wing. Lots of ophthalmologists  in their practice. Place looks brand spanking new. They had just moved in when I had my appointment. I wanted to go to the bathroom before the doctor came in and they marked the room where I was so they wouldn't forget which room it was because they all look alike from the hall.

 

[usctrojancpa]

2006-2007: Exotic loans like low start rate ARM's, neg AM, and NINJA mortgages allow borrowers to purchase or cash out refinance with proceeds used primarily for purchases of rental units "second homes" in Nevada, Arizona, and Florida as well as to help overcome qualifying "issues" for those with under-reported income.

2022 - NonQM loans and cash out refinances being an exponentially growing percentage of funded loans today - purchase and/or refinance. FNMA / FHLMC Agency rules are tightening against second home transactions due to occupancy fraud, risk, and loss mitigation. 3, 12, 24 month bank statement products, NINJA-like mortgages are now deployed to overcome qualifying issues experienced by those with under-reported income.

Same issues simply expressed through fractionally differing word salads.

Not sure what shadow banking means to @compressed-village. If it's speaking about hedgies lending operations or mortgage bankers (not the "too big to fail" entities), yes, as rates rise non-bank lenders margins will be squeezed so tightly that many of these companies will be unable to make it past Q1 2023.

This is part of the real estate cycle - one that's been delayed by can kicking the systemic problems down the road. We're approaching a cul-de-sac not far ahead IMHO.

My .02c

Yup, the prices keep melting up more and more buyers will need "more creative" loans to bid up to purchase their next home.  We'll have to watch this very carefully.

 

[AccidentalAnalytics]

Curious if you have seen any buyers with ?lock and shop? pre approvals. 

 

[sgip]

Lenders are beginning to re-introduce Lock and Shop programs.

Most follow the same pricing policies as long term rate locks example: If current -0- point rate is 3.0, a 90 day lock and shop will price (key term) at 3.125 for -0- points, with an upfront fee of $200-$500.

When you close (key term), 3.0 might be -0- points, or the 3.125 you locked might be a great deal. The short term lock fee will be applied to closing costs. Closing with another lender would mean the short term lock fee is retained by the lender you first locked with.

YMMV.

 

[Cares]

Pretty bad week for MBS. The 3% coupon dropped so much this week that I wouldn't be surprised that we switch to tracking the 3.5% coupon soon.

 

[Liar Loan]

Now the new question for this thread is how high can we go?

30 year fixed up to 4.5 - 4.75 in 2023?

Not gonna happen.  We might top out around 4% +/- a bit before heading back down.

It only took a month to hit 4% rates and the Fed hasn't even taken significant action yet.  Consumer inflation is still rising and now sits at 7.5%.

Care to revise your prediction?

 

[usctrojancpa]

Now the new question for this thread is how high can we go?

30 year fixed up to 4.5 - 4.75 in 2023?

Not gonna happen.  We might top out around 4% +/- a bit before heading back down.

It only took a month to hit 4% rates and the Fed hasn't even taken significant action yet.  Consumer inflation is still rising and now sits at 7.5%.

Care to revise your prediction?

Rates are not 4% yet with the lenders that I refer to my buyers...they were around 3.625% earlier this week but I'm sure after today it's around 3.75%. That's for conforming rates.  Jumbo rates were around 3.125-3.25% earlier this week. Can they go higher?  Sure but they'll only go up so high.

I want more inventory and less bidding, I have a ton of frustrated buyers ready to buy but keep getting outbid because there are 15-30 offers on each month that we put on an offer on. 

 

[CalBears96]

Now the new question for this thread is how high can we go?

30 year fixed up to 4.5 - 4.75 in 2023?

Not gonna happen.  We might top out around 4% +/- a bit before heading back down.

It only took a month to hit 4% rates and the Fed hasn't even taken significant action yet.  Consumer inflation is still rising and now sits at 7.5%.

Care to revise your prediction?

Rates are not 4% yet with the lenders that I refer to my buyers...they were around 3.625% earlier this week but I'm sure after today it's around 3.75%. That's for conforming rates.  Jumbo rates were around 3.125-3.25% earlier this week. Can they go higher?  Sure but they'll only go up so high.

I want more inventory and less bidding, I have a ton of frustrated buyers ready to buy but keep getting outbid because there are 15-30 offers on each month that we put on an offer on.

I just talked to Union Bank (preferred lender for IP) and I'm still getting 3% for jumbo loan.

 

[morekaos]

Thank god. Just closed a 3% cash our refi with our credit union.  Checked this morning and same loan is at 3 5/8%.  Locked just before the rates started to rise.  With inflation and tax benefits we are being paid to live on the water.

 

[Irvinehomeseeker]

I highly recommend  Sherry Wang at Citibank. If you are looking to lock 6 months to get the peace of mind, she is someone to contact to get the best rate . She will also work closely with you throughout the process. On my recent closing,  first the builder was delayed and then wire transfer was stuck for over 2 days  - She helped  me throughout with timely responses and follow ups. Her number is +16263212911 .. Just wanted to share her info based on my recent very positive experience working with her.

 

[sleepy5136]

I highly recommend  Sherry Wang at Citibank. If you are looking to lock 6 months to get the peace of mind, she is someone to contact to get the best rate . She will also work closely with you throughout the process. On my recent closing,  first the builder was delayed and then wire transfer was stuck for over 2 days  - She helped  me throughout with timely responses and follow ups. Her number is +16263212911 .. Just wanted to share her info based on my recent very positive experience working with her.

I also worked with her for my condo and can vouch for her as well. Best rate and super quick with responses/updates and closed on time.

 

[Cares]

3% coupon just fell below 100.

 

[box]

Is there anyone still offering 3.0% or less on a 30-year fixed jumbo loan? Ideally with no closing costs.

 

[OCtoSV]

Now the new question for this thread is how high can we go?

30 year fixed up to 4.5 - 4.75 in 2023?

Not gonna happen.  We might top out around 4% +/- a bit before heading back down.

It only took a month to hit 4% rates and the Fed hasn't even taken significant action yet.  Consumer inflation is still rising and now sits at 7.5%.

Care to revise your prediction?

Rates are not 4% yet with the lenders that I refer to my buyers...they were around 3.625% earlier this week but I'm sure after today it's around 3.75%. That's for conforming rates.  Jumbo rates were around 3.125-3.25% earlier this week. Can they go higher?  Sure but they'll only go up so high.

I want more inventory and less bidding, I have a ton of frustrated buyers ready to buy but keep getting outbid because there are 15-30 offers on each month that we put on an offer on.

Here is a view from the Bay area. Anything under $2M gets 30-50+ offers. I seriously need to sell my place and find my $1-1.25M pad in Mission Viejo or someplace modest so I can bank that tax free capital gain.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/update-unprecedented-real-estate-market-mike-kenyon-mike-kenyon/?trackingId=S%2Bd4qJtQTOS9MfmjIATx8g%3D%3D

 

[Irvinehomeseeker]

Is there anyone still offering 3.0% or less on a 30-year fixed jumbo loan? Ideally with no closing costs.

Call Sherry Wang...she may be able to help. Her number is 626-321-2911. Citi offers that rate i believe for Jumbo

 

[usctrojancpa]

Russia getting frisky may bring rates down a bit...

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Russia getting frisky may bring rates down a bit...

Putin about to give Irvine buyers a real nice break. Or is the crazy about to get super lunacy?

 

[Liar Loan]

Now the new question for this thread is how high can we go?

30 year fixed up to 4.5 - 4.75 in 2023?

Not gonna happen.  We might top out around 4% +/- a bit before heading back down.

It only took a month to hit 4% rates and the Fed hasn't even taken significant action yet.  Consumer inflation is still rising and now sits at 7.5%.

Care to revise your prediction?

Rates are not 4% yet with the lenders that I refer to my buyers...they were around 3.625% earlier this week but I'm sure after today it's around 3.75%. That's for conforming rates.  Jumbo rates were around 3.125-3.25% earlier this week. Can they go higher?  Sure but they'll only go up so high.

I want more inventory and less bidding, I have a ton of frustrated buyers ready to buy but keep getting outbid because there are 15-30 offers on each month that we put on an offer on.

Do you think the Federal Reserve will be checking in with your lenders or with nationally recognized sources of mortgage news?  Also, it's not clear if you are quoting zero points or not.  The average for all lenders with zero points is 4.05%... and climbing.

Mortgage Rates Hit 4.0% For First Time Since May 2019

For decades, the most prevalently-quoted source has been Freddie Mac's weekly primary mortgage market survey.

Freddie's survey showed an increase from 3.55 last week to 3.69 this week.  This assumes a best case scenario 30yr fixed with 0.8 points paid upfront.  I don't love the idea of building points into rate indices if points can change over time.  I'd rather just adjust the rates to reflect the points since there's reliable math for that purpose.

For example, at most lenders right now, you'd pay 1 point to drop the rate by 0.25%.  If Freddie made that adjustment, their 3.69 would rise to 3.89.  But remember, that would have applied to Monday/Tuesday based on Freddie's methodology.

In case it wasn't already clear based on the headline, the average is currently up to 4.02% (4.05% as of Friday).  Keep in mind that is is an average among top tier scenarios.  Adding any complexity to the scenario would mean a different rate.
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-02102022

 

[usctrojancpa]

Now the new question for this thread is how high can we go?

30 year fixed up to 4.5 - 4.75 in 2023?

Not gonna happen.  We might top out around 4% +/- a bit before heading back down.

It only took a month to hit 4% rates and the Fed hasn't even taken significant action yet.  Consumer inflation is still rising and now sits at 7.5%.

Care to revise your prediction?

Rates are not 4% yet with the lenders that I refer to my buyers...they were around 3.625% earlier this week but I'm sure after today it's around 3.75%. That's for conforming rates.  Jumbo rates were around 3.125-3.25% earlier this week. Can they go higher?  Sure but they'll only go up so high.

I want more inventory and less bidding, I have a ton of frustrated buyers ready to buy but keep getting outbid because there are 15-30 offers on each month that we put on an offer on.

Do you think the Federal Reserve will be checking in with your lenders or with nationally recognized sources of mortgage news?  Also, it's not clear if you are quoting zero points or not.  The average for all lenders with zero points is 4.05%... and climbing.

Mortgage Rates Hit 4.0% For First Time Since May 2019

For decades, the most prevalently-quoted source has been Freddie Mac's weekly primary mortgage market survey.

Freddie's survey showed an increase from 3.55 last week to 3.69 this week.  This assumes a best case scenario 30yr fixed with 0.8 points paid upfront.  I don't love the idea of building points into rate indices if points can change over time.  I'd rather just adjust the rates to reflect the points since there's reliable math for that purpose.

For example, at most lenders right now, you'd pay 1 point to drop the rate by 0.25%.  If Freddie made that adjustment, their 3.69 would rise to 3.89.  But remember, that would have applied to Monday/Tuesday based on Freddie's methodology.

In case it wasn't already clear based on the headline, the average is currently up to 4.02% (4.05% as of Friday).  Keep in mind that is is an average among top tier scenarios.  Adding any complexity to the scenario would mean a different rate.
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-02102022

All the rates that I quoted were for 0pts.  Jumbo rates are not as volatile as conforming rates as they don't move based upon MBS bond pricing hence why they are significantly lower than conforming rates today.

 

[CalBears96]

All the rates that I quoted were for 0pts.  Jumbo rates are not as volatile as conforming rates as they don't move based upon MBS bond pricing hence why they are significantly lower than conforming rates today.

Yup, 30-year fixed jumbo loan is still 3.125%.