How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
wait a second. Zero listing in Woodbury, 1 listing each in Cypress Village and Stonegate? didn?t know Irvine RE is still this hot. I am at peace leaving Irvine, which I feel it is overrated more and more everyday.
 
The California Court Company said:
wait a second. Zero listing in Woodbury, 1 listing each in Cypress Village and Stonegate? didn?t know Irvine RE is still this hot. I am at peace leaving Irvine, which I feel it is overrated more and more everyday.

As of 6pm on Saturday, Jan 15th there are 84 active listings in Irvine...4 in Cypress Village, 2 in Eastwood, 2 in Stonegate, and 0 in Woodbury.
 
Ready2Downsize said:
Compressed-Village said:
These moves, psychologically fanning urgency for buyers to move all the quicker, to buy now more than ever.

Of course we are talking about buyers that qualified and ready to buy.

On the sell side, builders this go round would not reduce price when rates goes higher because their cost of labors and raw materials substantially higher tomorrow than today.

Resale, homeowners are not motivated to reduce price, because tomorrow price will goes higher than today.

#TOUGHTIME

The cost to build the homes is going up. Sherwin Williams is raising paint prices 12%. I'm sure everything else is rising too.

I'm currently pricing out a commercial tenant improvement job and the labor + material costs are absolutely fucking insane.
 
HMart said:
Ready2Downsize said:
Compressed-Village said:
These moves, psychologically fanning urgency for buyers to move all the quicker, to buy now more than ever.

Of course we are talking about buyers that qualified and ready to buy.

On the sell side, builders this go round would not reduce price when rates goes higher because their cost of labors and raw materials substantially higher tomorrow than today.

Resale, homeowners are not motivated to reduce price, because tomorrow price will goes higher than today.

#TOUGHTIME

The cost to build the homes is going up. Sherwin Williams is raising paint prices 12%. I'm sure everything else is rising too.

I'm currently pricing out a commercial tenant improvement job and the labor + material costs are absolutely fucking insane.

It seems there has to be a point at which companies come to the conclusion it's saving them money to have people work at home rather than having everyone in offices they have to pay for.
 
Commercial spaces are suffering. A friend of mine went on some office tours and each property kept saying that they will configure it however they want, no problem. They've also added features like gyms, showers, reserve-able large conference space and other features to battle the WFH movement.

Commercial For Lease signs are the new Open House signs from the mid 2000s.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Commercial spaces are suffering. A friend of mine went on some office tours and each property kept saying that they will configure it however they want, no problem. They've also added features like gyms, showers, reserve-able large conference space and other features to battle the WFH movement.

Commercial For Lease signs are the new Open House signs from the mid 2000s.

It is all over the place. NYC commercial real estate are high as ever.
 
eyephone said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Commercial spaces are suffering. A friend of mine went on some office tours and each property kept saying that they will configure it however they want, no problem. They've also added features like gyms, showers, reserve-able large conference space and other features to battle the WFH movement.

Commercial For Lease signs are the new Open House signs from the mid 2000s.

It is all over the place. NYC commercial real estate are high as ever.

I wonder if that is spilling over into medical offices. A number of years ago my oncologist had to move because a church owned the building and they wanted to use the offices as a clinic for low income people. Had a really hard time finding a place.

This year my opthamologist moved one of their offices to an older medical building that gave them all kinds of freebies and redid the place to their exact specifications. Place looks brand new inside. They went from 4 small exam rooms to 16 bigger exam rooms. It was so bad their old office had to use their tiny coffee/break supply room to perform retinal scans.
 
eyephone said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Commercial spaces are suffering. A friend of mine went on some office tours and each property kept saying that they will configure it however they want, no problem. They've also added features like gyms, showers, reserve-able large conference space and other features to battle the WFH movement.

Commercial For Lease signs are the new Open House signs from the mid 2000s.

It is all over the place. NYC commercial real estate are high as ever.

I have a good friend that works as a high level analyst in the commercial RE space. He is telling me that commercial RE is very interesting in that B/C class properties cannot rent no matter how cheap they go. The Class A super luxurious offices with gyms, cafeterias, etc. are all renting sky high rents right now. It's bizarre right now.
 
Starting the week off with more red. Down 41 bps this morning.
 

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Most 30 fixed rate preferring home buyers who are closing in February have been shifting towards the 7 and 10 ARM products. It wouldn't be a bad idea for long term rate locks to be considered if your new home build is closing April - June. Most of these products have reasonable "repricing" options (AKA "float downs") or relatively cheap upfront costs that could make sense to abandon if pricing whipsaws back to the low 3's and you wish to close with another lender.

My .02c
 
Hard day for mortgage rates. Powell and Company are actively reducing their Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) purchase levels to rebalance the Fed's balance sheet. Treasuries will still be purchased in volume, but MBS's will for the most part be culled from the herd. It's often the case that people will watch the 10yr T as a benchmark for rate direction but it's the MBS prices that really determine mortgage rates. If you see a 10yr T rally, don't expect mortgage rates to move in the same manner.

My .02c
 
The heat is on for the FED and chopped the MBS purchase is neccessary for the hot running real estate sector. If anyone think jackup rate to reduce purchase price for residential is in for a rude awakening. Builders are having a hard time pulling their supplies to fullfil projects. This will translate to higher prices and much longer delivery time. Ask anyone on the list waiting for delivery and if they haven't have to ask for wait additional time because of several delays, sometimes by several months, they will be notify soon.


I feel for today buyers. Its a bitch.

 
The Goog-le has this:https://www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com/cake-mortgage-review/

Their transparency is a bit overstated. Today (2/3/2022) for an $800k rate and term refinance on a $1m owner occupied SFR, Cake shows a 3.875% rate with a "cost" of $1,688. However........

A) One might say "WOW" that's a low cost. Drill down into the actual fees and find that $1,688 is the discount point only, not escrow, title, lender fees, etc. At the end of it the "cost" isn't $1,688 but $5,554. This is only if you impound - adding another $2,000 to your closing cost moving the needle above $7k.

or

B) One might say "WOW", that's really out of the market because I can go to Wells, or BofA, or Union Bank and get 3.375% with zero fees because they are not using FNMA Agency money, but balance sheet jumbo stuff.


Details.... details.... that's where the Devil lives.
 
I like it when the insiders tell me what Google can't.

I guess Owning still advertises... just heard one of their ads where the interest rate is fixed at 1.99% for the first 10 years (I guess this is 10/1 ARM?).
 
irvinehomeowner said:
I like it when the insiders tell me what Google can't.

I guess Owning still advertises... just heard one of their ads where the interest rate is fixed at 1.99% for the first 10 years (I guess this is 10/1 ARM?).

Likely a 10/6 ARM. Most have moved to 6 month adjustment periods instead of 1 year. This allows them to offer lower teaser rates because they can adjust more frequently so less risk to them.

Edit: Yea I just checked it is 1.99% for 10/6 ARM but with 2.589% APR. That's a hefty amount of costs involved.
 
Owning also removed 2 Mil. plus loan all together.

They are tightening and reduce risks.

The other major risks that no one talk about is the shadow bankings. If rate continue to ratchet higher, they will collapse.
 
2006-2007: Exotic loans like low start rate ARM's, neg AM, and NINJA mortgages allow borrowers to purchase or cash out refinance with proceeds used primarily for purchases of rental units "second homes" in Nevada, Arizona, and Florida as well as to help overcome qualifying "issues" for those with under-reported income.

2022 - NonQM loans and cash out refinances being an exponentially growing percentage of funded loans today - purchase and/or refinance. FNMA / FHLMC Agency rules are tightening against second home transactions due to occupancy fraud, risk, and loss mitigation. 3, 12, 24 month bank statement products, NINJA-like mortgages are now deployed to overcome qualifying issues experienced by those with under-reported income.

Same issues simply expressed through fractionally differing word salads.

Not sure what shadow banking means to @compressed-village. If it's speaking about hedgies lending operations or mortgage bankers (not the "too big to fail" entities), yes, as rates rise non-bank lenders margins will be squeezed so tightly that many of these companies will be unable to make it past Q1 2023.

This is part of the real estate cycle - one that's been delayed by can kicking the systemic problems down the road. We're approaching a cul-de-sac not far ahead IMHO.

My .02c
 
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shadow-banking-system.asp#:~:text=The%20Breadth%20of%20the%20Shadow%20Banking%20System&text=These%20include%20investment%20banks%2C%20mortgage,of%20credit%20in%20the%20economy.

When rate ramp up quickly and higher, these shadow banks would not able to turn to low borrow sources to borrowing and could buckle. The FED is walking a tight rope. I wonder how JPowell sleep at night?


Understanding Shadow Banking Systems
The shadow banking system has escaped regulation primarily because unlike traditional banks and credit unions, these institutions do not accept traditional deposits. Shadow banking institutions arose as innovators in financial markets who were able to finance lending for real estate and other purposes but who did not face the normal regulatory oversight and rules regarding capital reserves and liquidity that are required of traditional lenders in order to help prevent bank failures, runs on banks, and financial crises.

As a result, many of the institutions and instruments have been able to pursue higher market, credit, and liquidity risks in their lending and do not have capital requirements commensurate with those risks. Many shadow banking institutions were heavily involved in lending related to the boom in subprime mortgage lending and loan securitization in the early 2000?s. Subsequent to the subprime meltdown in 2008, the activities of the shadow banking system came under increasing scrutiny due to their role in the over-extension of credit and systemic risk in the financial system and the resulting financial crisis.

The Breadth of the Shadow Banking System
Shadow banking is a blanket term to describe financial activities that take place among non-bank financial institutions outside the scope of federal regulators. These include investment banks, mortgage lenders, money market funds, insurance companies, hedge funds, private equity funds and payday lenders, all of which are a significant and growing source of credit in the economy.

Despite the higher level of scrutiny of shadow banking institutions in the wake of the financial crisis, the sector has grown significantly. In May 2017, the Switzerland-based Financial Stability Board released a report detailing the extent of global non-bank financing. Among the findings, the board found that non-bank financial assets had risen to $92 trillion in 2015 from $89 trillion in 2014. A more narrow measure in the report, used to indicate shadow banking activity that may give rise to financial stability risks, grew to $34 trillion in 2015, up 3.2% from the prior year and excluding data from China. Most of the activity centers around the creation of collateralized loans and repurchase agreements used for short-term lending between non-bank institutions and broker-dealers. Non-bank lenders, such as Quicken Loans, account for an increasing share of mortgages in the United States. One of the fastest-growing segments of the shadow banking industry is peer-to-peer (P2P) lending, with popular lenders such as LendingClub.com and Prosper.com. P2P lenders initiated more than $1.7 billion in loans in 2015.

Who Is Watching the Shadow Banks?
The shadow banking ind
 
Ready2Downsize said:
eyephone said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Commercial spaces are suffering. A friend of mine went on some office tours and each property kept saying that they will configure it however they want, no problem. They've also added features like gyms, showers, reserve-able large conference space and other features to battle the WFH movement.

Commercial For Lease signs are the new Open House signs from the mid 2000s.

It is all over the place. NYC commercial real estate are high as ever.

I wonder if that is spilling over into medical offices. A number of years ago my oncologist had to move because a church owned the building and they wanted to use the offices as a clinic for low income people. Had a really hard time finding a place.

This year my opthamologist moved one of their offices to an older medical building that gave them all kinds of freebies and redid the place to their exact specifications. Place looks brand new inside. They went from 4 small exam rooms to 16 bigger exam rooms. It was so bad their old office had to use their tiny coffee/break supply room to perform retinal scans.

I don't know how that's possible. I'm in a TI now with zero plumbing and it's $100 a sq ft to move some walls and doors (and the associated demolition/HVAC/electrical/flooring/repaint).

Suppose you are renting a 5,000 sq ft class B commercial space for $2.50/sqft/mo aka $30/sqft/yr full service gross. That's $150k/yr in rent and then you're going to go do a full TI for the tenant at $500k?
 
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