How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
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There's been a selloff in the MBS market which has pushed up rates.
Do they give you a 1 time free float down of an eighth if rates drop before you close? I say lock now, and if it drops again in a few months you can always refi again. I've only seen rates go up recently, 3.125 is good enough for a 30 and if you pulled $ out of the market you can do relationship $ to drop it another eighth or quarter depending on how much cash is sitting on the sidelines to buy back in.
Not 100% certain but I think we came close to 3% in 2011/2012 but never actually hit 3%.
I think if my overall outlook is more align with yours, then taking the 3.125% now indeed makes sense.
But I personally wouldn't do it because 1) my conviction is that we are heading for a deep recession and 2) Dethman said he has a 2K cost. I wouldn't want to pay that since I am even more bearish now than I was in late 2018. I started shorting since December and is now approx 85% actively shorting and 15% cash.
Easy Nostradamus... you didn't predict Corona.
You were actually very quiet the last 3 months or so when housing prices didn't drop like you expected in 2019.
And now that we have this totally unrelated pandemic that no one mentioned (just like Fed intervention) you are breaking out the "I told you so"s? If I recall correctly, the primary driver for your housing slowdown theory was the backing off of Chinese investments. And for economic slowdown, you kept citing AI and automation.
Let's not be revisionist historians here.
potsticker
Active member
Have heard there is overwhelming volume of refi applications and shops are raising rates to slow the pipeline.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
eyephone said:
There's been a selloff in the MBS market which has pushed up rates.
sgip
Well-known member
Nuff said:
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/938844.aspx
This was a very big move. There isn't much left in the Fed's arsenal to work with other than debt destruction. My guess is Trump will send out $1,000 cash to all tax payers, similar to what Bush did in the early 2000's to stimulate the economy.
My .02c
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/938844.aspx
This was a very big move. There isn't much left in the Fed's arsenal to work with other than debt destruction. My guess is Trump will send out $1,000 cash to all tax payers, similar to what Bush did in the early 2000's to stimulate the economy.
My .02c
dethman said:
Do they give you a 1 time free float down of an eighth if rates drop before you close? I say lock now, and if it drops again in a few months you can always refi again. I've only seen rates go up recently, 3.125 is good enough for a 30 and if you pulled $ out of the market you can do relationship $ to drop it another eighth or quarter depending on how much cash is sitting on the sidelines to buy back in.
I would take it as there is no guarantee you'll see a better offer anytime soon given the crazy demand. I'm closing Wed on 2.99 jumbo conforming 15 yr, no fee (lender credit), appraisal waiver. Initiated late Feb. For once in my life I had good timing.Kenkoko said:
I personally would wait because I've been bearish since mid-late 2018.
And I just do not see much of anything that can significantly move the rate upward.
But I am aware that most people on TI are bullish, so in that case a 3.125 is good enough on a 30 yr.
I think we are heading into a deep recession. My prediction in 2018 is turning out to be quite true.
And I just do not see much of anything that can significantly move the rate upward.
But I am aware that most people on TI are bullish, so in that case a 3.125 is good enough on a 30 yr.
I think we are heading into a deep recession. My prediction in 2018 is turning out to be quite true.
Kenkoko said:
I'm not bullish, I'm 90% cash right now waiting to buy back in. But if you can refi now at 3.125% and if rates never go down further you're good to go, if rates go down further you can always refi again. Did the 30yr hit 3.0 during 2008 or after?
If the coronavirus never happened I don't think the market would have crashed like it did.
If the coronavirus never happened I don't think the market would have crashed like it did.
Kenkoko said:
akkord said:
Not 100% certain but I think we came close to 3% in 2011/2012 but never actually hit 3%.
I think if my overall outlook is more align with yours, then taking the 3.125% now indeed makes sense.
But I personally wouldn't do it because 1) my conviction is that we are heading for a deep recession and 2) Dethman said he has a 2K cost. I wouldn't want to pay that since I am even more bearish now than I was in late 2018. I started shorting since December and is now approx 85% actively shorting and 15% cash.
Wish I could short, but due to where my wife and I work, we have 60 day min hold periods, options/shorts need to be pre-cleared through compliance which isn't happening in this market. Tough to do for us.
Depending on the loan amount and if dethman plans to pay the same amount as his/her current mortgage payment and more into the principal each month, the interest you save and the years you don't have to pay for paying the loan off earlier, make up the 2k no problem. It's the ARM play but with a 30yr and a lower rate. And if what you say is true (I hope it is then we can all refi and save $), the next refi should hopefully be a no cost refi, so you're hedging your bets with a 3.125 rate now. Rates go up, you got an awesome 30 yr fixed rate, if rates go down you have the option to refi again.
Depending on the loan amount and if dethman plans to pay the same amount as his/her current mortgage payment and more into the principal each month, the interest you save and the years you don't have to pay for paying the loan off earlier, make up the 2k no problem. It's the ARM play but with a 30yr and a lower rate. And if what you say is true (I hope it is then we can all refi and save $), the next refi should hopefully be a no cost refi, so you're hedging your bets with a 3.125 rate now. Rates go up, you got an awesome 30 yr fixed rate, if rates go down you have the option to refi again.
Kenkoko said:
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
akkord said:
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Kenkoko said:
Easy Nostradamus... you didn't predict Corona.
You were actually very quiet the last 3 months or so when housing prices didn't drop like you expected in 2019.
And now that we have this totally unrelated pandemic that no one mentioned (just like Fed intervention) you are breaking out the "I told you so"s? If I recall correctly, the primary driver for your housing slowdown theory was the backing off of Chinese investments. And for economic slowdown, you kept citing AI and automation.
Let's not be revisionist historians here.