Housing Analysis

[Ready2Downsize]

Anybody that bought in 2018 at 5% mortgage rates experienced a double whammy of pain.  First of all, their homes dropped in value.  This is indisputable, as market experts USCTrojanCPA and Cares have both confirmed.  Second of all, mortgage rates went way down.  Sure, they could have refi'd, but refi's have a cost.  Mortgage companies makes tons of money off of refi's, and it's partially through the fees/points paid by borrowers. 

Anybody that listened to me by avoiding Irvine in 2018 saved not only on the housing price, but on the cost of their mortgage, and ended up with monthly costs that declined meaningfully over the ensuing couple of years while they waited.  If they bought outside of Irvine instead, well they made out like bandits as the rest of OC continued to appreciate rapidly over those years.

It's funny how CalBears comments about my "predictions" in 2018, yet her registration date on this sight is from Fall of last year.  Hmm...

If they bought ANYWHERE in 2018 wouldn't they be at the same 5% mortgage rate? And if they wanted to buy in Irvine but bought in some other area instead and sold that with their gains to buy in Irvine, wouldn't their profit be eaten up by selling costs and additional moving costs?

The area I'm buying in has gone up 26% between end of 2017 and Feb 2020 and it's more than doubled since end of 2017. Does that mean that area outperformed? I don't know. Property taxes are WAY lower, HOA and insurance is also way lower. But since the property values are lower, the amount of appreciation is lower than Irvine.

Question is how many years can I fund my retirement from my profits on the two properties during that time? In AZ with the outsized gain %wise, I only would have gotten maybe 4 years out of it whereas Irvine property gets me at least 10 years.

So did the double outperform Irvine? Well if I would have bought several houses I guess.

To say one city was outperformed by others is to generalize. How do u know what people paid for any given property or how much remodeling was done to each property? Lots of flipping during that time in which people bought crappy properties and fixed them up to sell them. U think there were more or less of those in Irvine as compared to the outperforming areas?

There is more to think about than a percent on a paper imo.

 

[CalBears96]

I can see why you're LIAR loan. Anyone who refi'd in 2020 didn't pay any cost. It's called NO POINT, NO FEES refi.

You've been talking about your 2018 "predictions" so I didn't have to be here to comment about it. And there was only a slight drop from 2018 to 2020, so if people didn't buy back then, they would not own a house right now, because you didn't tell those people when to buy after that. So basically, people who didn't listen to you and bought in 2018 would be A LOT better off right now. Your play is just 20/20 hindsight.

 

[Liar Loan]

I can see why you're LIAR loan. Anyone who refi'd in 2020 didn't pay any cost. It's called NO POINT, NO FEES refi.

You've been talking about your 2018 "predictions" so I didn't have to be here to comment about it. And there was only a slight drop from 2018 to 2020, so if people didn't buy back then, they would not own a house right now, because you didn't tell those people when to buy after that. So basically, people who didn't listen to you and bought in 2018 would be A LOT better off right now. Your play is just 20/20 hindsight.

See you're getting what I said all wrong precisely because you weren't here back then.  I was bullish OC, just not Irvine.  I didn't tell people not to buy, I just said don't buy Irvine.  Anybody that bought OC excluding Irvine was making huge appreciation, then Covid happened and they made even more insane appreciation, while Irvine was still trying to catch up to the rest of OC.  So on a max-ROI basis, Irvine was the loser even to this day, and OC excluding Irvine was the clear winner.

Also, your knowledge of mortgage is understandably lacking.  Did the buyer in 2018 get a no point, no fee loan?  Not likely.  Those fees/points they paid in 2018 as a buyer are gone forever because they bought thinking rates were on their way up and it was the last mortgage they would ever need, so why not pay $10,000-$20,000 to buydown the rate?  I know how mortgage loan officers sell mortgages in times of rising rates, and lots of buyers pay boatloads of points to lock in a "low rate" forever.... only to refi again during the next crisis for no points and no fees (which isn't free either).  You build the points/fees into the rate and during times of declining rates it still feels like an amazing deal.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Whoah whoa waitaminnut... hold the goal posts movement.

This very thread is in General Real Estate... and the big "slowdown" everyone was predicting (except for a few us) was for ALL real estate... not just Irvine.

But Mr. LL said the pain would be especially bad in Irvine. Which it wasn't despite his constant reference to Cares and USC... what was the percentage you said it dropped again?

 

[Ready2Downsize]

I can see why you're LIAR loan. Anyone who refi'd in 2020 didn't pay any cost. It's called NO POINT, NO FEES refi.

You've been talking about your 2018 "predictions" so I didn't have to be here to comment about it. And there was only a slight drop from 2018 to 2020, so if people didn't buy back then, they would not own a house right now, because you didn't tell those people when to buy after that. So basically, people who didn't listen to you and bought in 2018 would be A LOT better off right now. Your play is just 20/20 hindsight.

See you're getting what I said all wrong precisely because you weren't here back then.  I was bullish OC, just not Irvine.  I didn't tell people not to buy, I just said don't buy Irvine.  Anybody that bought OC excluding Irvine was making huge appreciation, then Covid happened and they made even more insane appreciation, while Irvine was still trying to catch up to the rest of OC.  So on a max-ROI basis, Irvine was the loser even to this day, and OC excluding Irvine was the clear winner.

Also, your knowledge of mortgage is understandably lacking.  Did the buyer in 2018 get a no point, no fee loan?  Not likely.  Those fees/points they paid in 2018 as a buyer are gone forever because they bought thinking rates were on their way up and it was the last mortgage they would ever need, so why not pay $10,000-$20,000 to buydown the rate?  I know how mortgage loan officers sell mortgages in times of rising rates, and lots of buyers pay boatloads of points to lock in a "low rate" forever.... only to refi again during the next crisis for no points and no fees (which isn't free either).  You build the points/fees into the rate and during times of declining rates it still feels like an amazing deal.

Yeah. That big huge appreciation for the OC:

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Just so everyone can see for themselves.

Liar Loan hopes that no one will go back and search for his predictions but here you go in September of 2019... over a year and half later after this thread started and there still wasn't a significant slowdown (which he attributed to prices lags after sales volume). So he doubled down on his predictions for BOTH OC and Irvine:

We are still in the early innings though.  The "big" drops will probably begin next year once the rest of OC starts declining like Irvine.  There's still a long ways to go before this bottoms out.

Does that sound like he was bullish on OC?

He's putting words in his own mouth I guess.

And one of many of his "Irvine pain" quotes:

Irvine is in for many more years of pain.

So based on his recent posts... prices starting going back up after 2020 (instead of "big drops")... and this prediction was in October of 2019, so maybe he meant some other future timeframe in which he will come back here and remind us how right he was?

morekaos should start a thread of "Funny things Liar Loan says...".

 

[usctrojancpa]

Maybe he meant to say.....HOPEFUL Irvine BUYERS is in for many more years of pain.

 

[Liar Loan]

IHO - In 2018 I was bullish on OC and now you are shifting the timeline to late 2019, almost two years later.  What I said in Fall 2019 was, of course, not a prediction about 2018.

In the quote cited, I was reaffirming my correct call about Irvine in 2018 and making a new prediction that the rest of OC was due for some pain.  Did I predict 2020 would lead to the largest money printing operation in history?  No, of course not, but that only made the problems in housing worse, and the ultimate pain that will be suffered is going to hurt that much more.

 

[Liar Loan]

New home sales almost never drop from February to March, but they did this year.  How's that for seasonality?

New Home Sales Drop 12.6 Percent From Prior Year and 8.6 Percent From Prior Month

Sales of new single?family houses in March 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 763,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.6 percent below the revised February rate of 835,000 and is 12.6 percent below the March 2021 estimate of 873,000.

The months of supply increased in March to 6.4 months from 5.6 months in February.

This is above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/march-new-home-sales-little-completed?s=r

 

[irvinehomeowner]

IHO - In 2018 I was bullish on OC and now you are shifting the timeline to late 2019, almost two years later.  What I said in Fall 2019 was, of course, not a prediction about 2018.

In the quote cited, I was reaffirming my correct call about Irvine in 2018 and making a new prediction that the rest of OC was due for some pain.  Did I predict 2020 would lead to the largest money printing operation in history?  No, of course not, but that only made the problems in housing worse, and the ultimate pain that will be suffered is going to hurt that much more.

Typical double speak. You should be a politician.

Why don't you show us the post in 2018 where you said you were bullish on OC?

I'm not shifting the timeline... that's the follow-up conversation where I was asking why have the prices not dropped a year and half later after this Housing Analysis thread had started. I picked that particular set to demonstrate that 1.5 years later in late 2019, you were still contending there would be a "big drops in OC" and "pain in Irvine" despite the fact that prices had not significantly dropped since March 2018 (which you attributed to lags following sales volume).

And let's use simple logic here... if you were expecting big drops in OC in 2020, how could you be bullish in 2018? You harp so much on timing so being bullish in 2018 a whole 2 years before your predicted price drops isn't really good timing is it?

You keep claiming how correct your predictions are but that's your own hearsay because you don't quote any posts where you have made these predictions.

In fact, you have yet to dispute your own Irvine pain predictions as being COMPLETELY off.

You can dance all you want but your whole dissertation on how awesome your timing is isn't really aligning with your very own posts in this thread. Or maybe we are still waiting for those prices that lag sales volume?

 

[Liar Loan]

IHO - In 2018 I was bullish on OC and now you are shifting the timeline to late 2019, almost two years later.  What I said in Fall 2019 was, of course, not a prediction about 2018.

In the quote cited, I was reaffirming my correct call about Irvine in 2018 and making a new prediction that the rest of OC was due for some pain.  Did I predict 2020 would lead to the largest money printing operation in history?  No, of course not, but that only made the problems in housing worse, and the ultimate pain that will be suffered is going to hurt that much more.

Typical double speak. You should be a politician.

Why don't you show us the post in 2018 where you said you were bullish on OC?

I'm not shifting the timeline... that's the follow-up conversation where I was asking why have the prices not dropped a year and half later after this Housing Analysis thread had started. I picked that particular set to demonstrate that 1.5 years later in late 2019, you were still contending there would be a "big drops in OC" and "pain in Irvine" despite the fact that prices had not significantly dropped since March 2018 (which you attributed to lags following sales volume).

And let's use simple logic here... if you were expecting big drops in OC in 2020, how could you be bullish in 2018? You harp so much on timing so being bullish in 2018 a whole 2 years before your predicted price drops isn't really good timing is it?

You keep claiming how correct your predictions are but that's your own hearsay because you don't quote any posts where you have made these predictions.

In fact, you have yet to dispute your own Irvine pain predictions as being COMPLETELY off.

You can dance all you want but your whole dissertation on how awesome your timing is isn't really aligning with your very own posts in this thread. Or maybe we are still waiting for those prices that lag sales volume?

The entire premise of your comment is off, because Irvine did experience significant price drops.  Martin has confirmed it.  Cares reluctantly agreed.  Zillow, Trulia, Redfin, OC Housing News.  Every data source shows it.

So the first step is you admitting to yourself that Irvine price drops occurred and the second step is admitting that you didn't see it coming.  Then you need to ask yourself why?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

The entire premise of your comment is off, because Irvine did experience significant price drops.  Martin has confirmed it.  Cares reluctantly agreed.  Zillow, Trulia, Redfin, OC Housing News.  Every data source shows it.

And you accuse me of putting words in others mouth.

Quote the posts where Martin and Cares confirmed "significant price drops".

I've posted the Redfin chart multiple times for Irvine 2018-2020 (which you conveniently ignore) and there was nothing "signifcant" on there.

And I know what your next trick is... "significant" will be some small percentage that you claim as huuuuuge.

So the first step is you admitting to yourself that Irvine price drops occurred and the second step is admitting that you didn't see it coming.  Then you need to ask yourself why?

Price drops? Looked seasonal to me. And where are the prices now? Extend your time frame from 2018 to now... and it's a SIGNIFICANT gain. Ask yourself why you keep stopping at 2020? Because it fits your flawed narrative?

See... I can double speak too.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

And still waiting on that quote where you were bullish in 2018... I won't be distracted.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

This link says it all about LL's 2018 call:
https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market

The pain of a 60% gain!

Here try again.

Show me where on Redfin that "significant" price drop for Irvine is? 2018? 2019? Maybe 2020? If you smooth out the peaks and valleys... what is the ONLY significant thing you see?

 

[Liar Loan]

And still waiting on that quote where you were bullish in 2018... I won't be distracted.

You've already dug through all of my 2018-2019 posts, so I don't need to.  I owned four non-Irvine properties in 2018, so of course I was bullish.

Redfin shows a 7% loss in 2018-19 that took until the end of 2020 to recover.  Irvine is still lagging the rest of OC to this day.

 

[CalBears96]

Here try again.

Show me where on Redfin that "significant" price drop for Irvine is? 2018? 2019? Maybe 2020? If you smooth out the peaks and valleys... what is the ONLY significant thing you see?

As I mentioned before, LL disingenuously cherry picked the highest price in 2018 against the lowest price in 2020 to justify his "significant" drop, even though if you look at the average of 2018 against the average of 2020, it's only a SLIGHT drop, if even that. I mean, you could have used the lowest price of 2018 and the highest price of 2020 and claimed it's a "significant" gain.

 

[Liar Loan]

Here try again.

Show me where on Redfin that "significant" price drop for Irvine is? 2018? 2019? Maybe 2020? If you smooth out the peaks and valleys... what is the ONLY significant thing you see?

As I mentioned before, LL disingenuously cherry picked the highest price in 2018 against the lowest price in 2020 to justify his "significant" drop, even though if you look at the average of 2018 against the average of 2020, it's only a SLIGHT drop, if even that. I mean, you could have used the lowest price of 2018 and the highest price of 2020 and claimed it's a "significant" gain.

I posted four years of data.  That's not cherry picking.

On an inflation-adjusted, or better yet opportunity cost-adjusted basis, Irvine did terrible over those three years.  Absolutely terrible. 

Paying a 5% mortgage for the privilege of losing 7% (not even including closing costs) was an absolute disaster for those first time buyers.  And guess what?  There were several first time buyers posting here and asking for advice back then, but you don't see them anymore because they know they got smoked.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

You've already dug through all of my 2018-2019 posts, so I don't need to.

You do, because I can't find where you said you were bullish on the OC in 2018.

I owned four non-Irvine properties in 2018, so of course I was bullish.

This kind of statement doesn't prove anything.

Were they in OC? Did you buy them in 2018? Did you sell any of these or any other properties and when?

Again, show us the post where you were bullish... your "proof" smells like something spelled similarly.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Redfin shows a 7% loss in 2018-19 that took until the end of 2020 to recover.  Irvine is still lagging the rest of OC to this day.

I thought you were smart?

7% loss in one year doesn't really mean much if it recovered and then gained after that in just a year... that's why the advice was you need to be able to stay put. You are cherry picking because you are only looking at one point in time... how are those homeowners who bought then doing now? In a much better position if they had not bought and are trying to buy today.

But you can't admit that... because you are the source of that pain.

There were several first time buyers posting here and asking for advice back then, but you don't see them anymore because they know they got smoked.

Yeah, because they listened to you and waited and not only prices jumped up but so did rates. Great job LL, you were not only wrong on housing prices but also interest rates (or are you going to change history again and say you predicted rising rates in 2018?)... so again, it was YOU they got smoked by.

And I need to quote this again for posterity:

So does this mean we are finally going to see pain in all housing?

I know you speak from a place of privilege, but a 63% increase in housing costs is pain.  I still remember what it was like in the early 2000's, feeling like owning a home was an impossible dream.

Today's FTHB's are experiencing real pain as they watch their dreams evaporate before their eyes.  They either need to right-size their expectations of what they can afford by substituting down, or drop out of the search altogether and just pray that either prices or interest rates drop again.

This is a very sad thing for our society, but I'm glad you can make light of it because you got yours.

So now the pain you are talking about is the high prices and unaffordability?

Once again... changing the story. The "pain" I am referring to and you kept boasting about was how the prices in Irvine were going to drop... I mean you just mentioned some 7% in one year pain that disappeared a year later.

So now that your version of pain did not materialize... you are pivoting to the pain of first time home buyers not being able to afford houses and trying to put that on us? Where were you to tell them that the prices were going back up and they should get in before it's too late? Oh yeah. You can't find that post.

Another point of hypocrisy on your part... but didn't you purchase your current home within that 2018-2020 time period? The same time period you said people should not be buying? Oh wait... you're probably going to come up with some excuse that your data pinpointed the exact time to purchase so that you minimized all pain. So really.. who is speaking from the place of privilege and got his without helping out all these first time homebuyers? Instead, you are boasting about rising interest rates and how that's going put downward pressure on pricing. Make sure you start a thread telling everyone when to pull the trigger since you claim you know better than the rest of us so you can save the world.

Sorry man... you may not see it, but no one is supporting your position... maybe get Larry back over here to help you out because it looks like OCHN hasn't been updated since December 2021.

P.S. Still waiting on your proof that Cares and USC confirmed that there were "significant'" (not seasonal?) drops in Irvine compared to the OC. Or are you putting words in their mouths?

 

[Liar Loan]

We can all rest easy because Lawrence Yun has assured us that home prices won't go down.

Housing market: Pending home sales tumble for fifth straight month

Rising borrowing costs are cooling off what was once a blistering hot housing market.

Pending home sales, a leading indicator of health for the housing market, declined for the fifth straight month in March, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The trade group?s index that tracks the number of homes under contract to be sold fell 1.2% to a reading of 103.7 in March from the previous month and sank 8.2% from a year ago.

Overall, Yun expects existing sales this year to be down 9% from ?the heated pace of last year.?

?Home prices are in no danger of decline on a nationwide basis,? he said...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-pending-home-sales-tumble-155119332.html