Housing Analysis

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irvinehomeowner said:
Liar Loan said:
Just don't listen to IHO when he says timing doesn't matter.  Irvine Housing Blog has documented thousands of poor fools that bought & borrowed in Irvine at the wrong time and lost everything.
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Thousands? What about the thousands who held (which In Irvine there were many because they were FCBs) and it worked out just fine.

There was more losers in other cities than Irvine... the data bears that out but you won't see it.
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Ok, so make a bad purchase because if you hold on long enough, eventually you'll break even?

You are minimizing the pain of not only those that lost their homes, but of those that held on that were feeling intense stress as their property values plummeted.
 
This link says it all about LL's 2018 call:
https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market

Irvine-5years-Apr22.png


The pain of a 60% gain!
 
Liar Loan said:
CalBears96 said:
irvinehomeowner said:
This link says it all about LL's 2018 call:
https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market

The pain of a 60% gain!
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Yeah, those people who bought in 2018 are feeling the Irvine pain right now.
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Haha...and you are paying 60% higher prices.  Congratulations!
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That's the difference between people who can do it, will do it, no matters. They will be happier.

The timing thing is a little outdated like 80's.

LL still stuck in the 80's. and the Great Recessions mind frame.
 
CalBears96 said:
Liar Loan said:
CalBears96 said:
irvinehomeowner said:
This link says it all about LL's 2018 call:
https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market

The pain of a 60% gain!
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Yeah, those people who bought in 2018 are feeling the Irvine pain right now.
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Haha...and you are paying 60% higher prices.  Congratulations!
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Fool, I'm selling my other 2 homes to cover for the cost. You're so ignorant it's not funny.
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Yes, two other homes you bought near the previous peak.  Like I said, congratulations!
 
Liar Loan said:
Yes, two other homes you bought near the previous peak.  Like I said, congratulations!
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Both of which are going to be sold at higher prices than they were bought. The second one was not bought at the peak. Bought for $600k and most likely to be sold north of $900k. That's about 50% pain.

One of them was paid for partially by my tenants.  The other one saves me from paying rent.

So yeah... stop being an ignorant fool.
 
CalBears96 said:
Liar Loan said:
Yes, two other homes you bought near the previous peak.  Like I said, congratulations!
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Both of which are going to be sold at higher prices than they were bought. The second one was not bought at the peak. Bought for $600k and most likely to be sold north of $900k. That's about 50% pain.

One of them was paid for partially by my tenants.  The other one saves me from paying rent.

So yeah... stop being an ignorant fool.
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Congratulations
 
One of my close friends did well too.
Bought a small house in Irvine in 2011 at the bottom, refied with sub 2.5% rate. Upgraded house 2X size last year and rent out the smaller house. They have two mortgages (the one for the new house is obviously larger) but with sub 2.5% rate the rent of the small house can cover the larger mortgage (PITI, HOA included) even after management fee. So they upgraded for free in terms of monthly outlay and the cash on cash return for the new house (according to recent comp) is more than 50% in a year.

Liar Loan said:
CalBears96 said:
Liar Loan said:
Yes, two other homes you bought near the previous peak.  Like I said, congratulations!
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Both of which are going to be sold at higher prices than they were bought. The second one was not bought at the peak. Bought for $600k and most likely to be sold north of $900k. That's about 50% pain.

One of them was paid for partially by my tenants.  The other one saves me from paying rent.

So yeah... stop being an ignorant fool.
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Congratulations
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LL can't admit he's wrong so his only retort is troll posts.

Never mind that many primary homeowners purchase to hold and of all the cities in OC, Irvine was one of the ones that fared the best yet he can't produce data that counters that so instead he cherry picks some statistic that in 2018+, Irvine did worse than the rest of OC without counting in new home sales and now admits that since 2018 there has been a 60% appreciation and is still trying to turn it into pain.

And then he says for investment properties, he doesn't recommend Irvine but for your primary it's fine... which we have been saying all along.

And the topper... he now says Irvine is a coastal city, so thus it falls into his collection of cities that do better during downturns... thus contradicting himself once again.

I hope all you TI readers have come to realize that LL is just pretending he's an educated contrarian... I mean he is educated and doesn't like Irvine, but hardly any of his evidence is entirely accurate nor solely relegated to just Irvine.

This thread was originally started to predict some "slowdown" in 2018, and while some argued vehemently for that (remember this was for housing in general, not just Irvine.... so by LL's own words (not put there by me), OC did well these last few years)... so what slowdown? Seems like history has proved them inaccurate.

And what happened to the voices who said it was going to happen... just wait... prices lag sales numbers... it's not seasonal etc etc. We even had a massive pandemic which you would think would have done something but it actually skyrocketed RE prices.

Just goes to show... no one knows everything... not Larry... not LL... not me... no one.

Just enjoy your home, whether you buy or rent. :)
 
You?re the one that used 2006.  I am
Just showing how you lie with statistics. Mr Broken Clock.

Liar Loan said:
AccidentalAnalytics said:
Since people want to lie with statistics: Based on historical rents below, rents have gone up 53% 2006-2021.  I?d say the P&I increase is healthy given this comparison.
https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/average-rent-by-year
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You are using the monster of all housing bubbles (2006) as a baseline in order to convince others that the current market looks healthy.  Most of us have been around long enough to see right through that.
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Redfin: The Pandemic-Driven Second-Home Boom Is Coming to an End
After last year?s frenzy for vacation homes, buyers are now backing off amid rising mortgage rates and an increase in loan fees for second homes.

Demand for vacation homes dropped sharply for the second month in a row in March, with mortgage-rate locks for second homes at their lowest level since May 2020.

The slowdown in demand for vacation homes joins other early signals that the historically fast rise in mortgage rates and record-high home prices are pricing out some buyers.

?The pandemic-driven surge in sales of vacation homes is coming to an end as mortgage rates rise at their fastest pace in history, causing some second-home buyers to back off,? said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. ?When rates and prices shoot up so much that a vacation home starts to look more like a burden than a good investment and a fun place to bring your family on the weekends, a lot of prospective buyers have second thoughts. The new second-home loan fees that kicked in on April 1 were also a deterrent. Plus, some buyers? down payments?and their nerves?probably took a hit when the stock market dipped over the last few months.?

Another deterrent to demand was the impending rise in loan fees for second-home loans, which increased by about 1% to 4% starting on April 1. The change adds about $13,500 to the cost of purchasing a $400,000 home for the typical vacation-home buyer and will continue to cool interest in vacation homes in the coming months.

march-second-homes.png

https://www.redfin.com/news/second-home-demand-drop-march-2022/
 
BTW:

I heard on the radio that even more buyers are trying to get homes before the rates go higher so it's actually continuing to push prices up because demand isn't waning like it should be (and because move up buyers are going to the sidelines, inventory goes down).

Eventually there should be a tipping point... but because housing has so many non-fundamental factors... it's hard to predict when.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
So does this mean we are finally going to see pain in all housing?
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I know you speak from a place of privilege, but a 63% increase in housing costs is pain.  I still remember what it was like in the early 2000's, feeling like owning a home was an impossible dream.

Today's FTHB's are experiencing real pain as they watch their dreams evaporate before their eyes.  They either need to right-size their expectations of what they can afford by substituting down, or drop out of the search altogether and just pray that either prices or interest rates drop again.

This is a very sad thing for our society, but I'm glad you can make light of it because you got yours.

irvinehomeowner said:
I heard on the radio that even more buyers are trying to get homes before the rates go higher so it's actually continuing to push prices up because demand isn't waning like it should be (and because move up buyers are going to the sidelines, inventory goes down).
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This is a narrative based on contracts entered into prior to the massive increases in mortgage rates.
 
Liar Loan said:
irvinehomeowner said:
So does this mean we are finally going to see pain in all housing?
Click to expand...

I know you speak from a place of privilege, but a 63% increase in housing costs is pain.  I still remember what it was like in the early 2000's, feeling like owning a home was an impossible dream.

Today's FTHB's are experiencing real pain as they watch their dreams evaporate before their eyes.  They either need to right-size their expectations of what they can afford by substituting down, or drop out of the search altogether and just pray that either prices or interest rates drop again.

This is a very sad thing for our society, but I'm glad you can make light of it because you got yours.
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Nice virtue signaling... where was this societal concern when you were making fun of Irvine home buyers the last 4 years?

Obviously this is an issue for anyone trying to buy a home... but where was your crystal ball back in 2018 where you should have been telling people they should buy back then because 4 years later, it would be close to impossible for them to buy because it would cost 63% more?

It's sad that you totally miss the irony in your posts.

That's why I've contended that if you have the wherewithal to buy and stay put... you should do it because you can never know what the future holds... which you don't want to admit... you were so wrong on your predictions on ALL home prices... not just Irvine.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Liar Loan said:
irvinehomeowner said:
So does this mean we are finally going to see pain in all housing?
Click to expand...

I know you speak from a place of privilege, but a 63% increase in housing costs is pain.  I still remember what it was like in the early 2000's, feeling like owning a home was an impossible dream.

Today's FTHB's are experiencing real pain as they watch their dreams evaporate before their eyes.  They either need to right-size their expectations of what they can afford by substituting down, or drop out of the search altogether and just pray that either prices or interest rates drop again.

This is a very sad thing for our society, but I'm glad you can make light of it because you got yours.
Click to expand...

Nice virtue signaling... where was this societal concern when you were making fun of Irvine home buyers the last 4 years?

Obviously this is an issue for anyone trying to buy a home... but where was your crystal ball back in 2018 where you should have been telling people they should buy back then because 4 years later, it would be close to impossible for them to buy because it would cost 63% more?

It's sad that you totally miss the irony in your posts.

That's why I've contended that if you have the wherewithal to buy and stay put... you should do it because you can never know what the future holds... which you don't want to admit... you were so wrong on your predictions on ALL home prices... not just Irvine.
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This is why I have no respect for LL. He makes wrong predictions, but won't admit it. Then he cherry picks data to virtue signal.

He was pretty much making fun of people buying in 2018 by claiming the "Irvine Pain" due to slight drop from 2018 to 2020. But now he says that the 63% increase is pain. Pain for whom? Pain for the same people who bought in 2018 that he made fun of, who are now seeing 63% increase?
 
Anybody that bought in 2018 at 5% mortgage rates experienced a double whammy of pain.  First of all, their homes dropped in value.  This is indisputable, as market experts USCTrojanCPA and Cares have both confirmed.  Second of all, mortgage rates went way down.  Sure, they could have refi'd, but refi's have a cost.  Mortgage companies makes tons of money off of refi's, and it's partially through the fees/points paid by borrowers. 

Anybody that listened to me by avoiding Irvine in 2018 saved not only on the housing price, but on the cost of their mortgage, and ended up with monthly costs that declined meaningfully over the ensuing couple of years while they waited.  If they bought outside of Irvine instead, well they made out like bandits as the rest of OC continued to appreciate rapidly over those years.

It's funny how CalBears comments about my "predictions" in 2018, yet her registration date on this sight is from Fall of last year.  Hmm...
 
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