Housing Analysis

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Orange County home sales jump 37% as median price hits $732,750
Median is 1% off the county?s record high of $740,000 set in October 2018.

STAFF GRAPHIC
By JONATHAN LANSNER | jlansner@scng.com | Orange County Register
PUBLISHED: January 28, 2020 at 11:59 am | UPDATED: January 28, 2020 at 2:19 pm
Orange County homebuying rose and prices increased as Southern California?s median hit an all-time high in December.

Orange County home sales totaled 3,109 in December ? up 37% in a year, CoreLogic/DQ News reported. Still, Orange County?s latest sales count is still 12% off the December average of 3,533 since 1988.

The countywide median selling price was $732,750 ? up 3.2% over 12 months. The latest median is 1% off the county?s record high of $740,000 set in October 2018.



So, looks like the trends is moving up. Another black dice comes out. We will have to continue to wait and see if the next black swan event to occur before the shift of downward buying demands. Can cheap money, even gets cheaper in the next crisis? FED caved in before, so it can possibly do it further.



 
So despite lower volume... and after all this time for prices to catch up, December is actually closer to the all time high?

How does the data explain this?
 
In 2008 when IHB was talking about all the shadow inventory and how Irvine was doomed to 40% drops or more, no one expected the FED to rescue housing and the economy with such great gusto!......and it worked.

So now 2018-2019 realestate looks wobbly....once again the fed comes to the rescue and we only drop 5%.

Every time the FED rescues the US economy the gini coefficient increases....now you gotta decide which side of the equation you wanna be.


It's like the Chinese wealthy who buy properties in China knowing the government will never let it drop....same shit here.


So what's the take away?
The US government will prop up our economy forever no matter what. (for the rich)
They will kick the can as long as possible until we end up in momopi paradise.
In the end, the people who bought in the 2006 high got their valuation back about 10 years later.
 
zubs said:
In 2008 when IHB was talking about all the shadow inventory and how Irvine was doomed to 40% drops or more, no one expected the FED to rescue housing and the economy with such great gusto!......and it worked.

So now 2018-2019 realestate looks wobbly....once again the fed comes to the rescue and we only drop 5%.

Every time the FED rescues the US economy the gini coefficient increases....now you gotta decide which side of the equation you wanna be.


It's like the Chinese wealthy who buy properties in China knowing the government will never let it drop....same shit here.


So what's the take away?
The US government will prop up our economy forever no matter what. (for the rich)
They will kick the can as long as possible until we end up in momopi paradise.
In the end, the people who bought in the 2006 high got their valuation back about 10 years later.
Click to expand...


Yeah, one of the thread late last year discussed about pricing in 2018 / 2019 and my thought was that by 2025 I should have bought in 2020 when prices were ways lower.

People forget that Local government relies heavily on real estate and taxes collections to let the shit hit the fan.


And you have private equities and corps flushes with cash and credit lines up the wazoo playing the residential real estate market and scoops up properties and willing to hold it on their books. Banks still practice with cautions. All this will support and prevents any type of crazy low price.

 
If there is a no sign of a price drop, then that?s a good thing. There is a no sign of the insane price increase either, so that?s a better thing. But for the a huge price drop to happen, that would be something the whole nation has to suffer together, not just Irvine or OC. As of now, it seems like some zip codes in Irvine home prices decreased and some appreciated by a very little %.
 
Okay... new year... let's reset.

It seems like volume data doesn't have the impact on pricing as we would have thought (unless someone can explain otherwise).

So... now that we see that... what do we think housing will look like in the next 1, 2, or 5 years?

Since housing is usually cyclical, aren't we overdue for a big drop (I think that's what the slowdowners were betting on because it's been over 10 years since the last significant drop)? I remember from a long time ago that real estate was 7 year cycles but I'm not sure if that applies now. If 94 and 08 were the last troughs (14 years difference!), would 22 be the next one?
 
Denying that the new Trump tax law had no effect for housing is laughable.

Sorry it?s political, but that?s what happened clear and simple.
 
eyephone said:
Denying that the new Trump tax law had no effect for housing is laughable.

Sorry it?s political, but that?s what happened clear and simple.
Click to expand...

I don't think anyone has denied anything.

I did not even mention that in my last post. What I did say was that the reduction in volume of sales has not had a considerable effect on prices as some thought it would.
 
I love the flaw of the tax plan. Let?s reduce the tax burden on businesses and increase taxes on individuals. But wait the big businesses are paying taxes or like nothing.
 
@eyephone,

Are you saying because of this Trump tax law, the housing will crash soon?

Or are you simply saying it will have some sort of affects and it might actually recover if the tax law is reversed (or if Trump is out) ?
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Okay... new year... let's reset.

It seems like volume data doesn't have the impact on pricing as we would have thought (unless someone can explain otherwise).

So... now that we see that... what do we think housing will look like in the next 1, 2, or 5 years?

Since housing is usually cyclical, aren't we overdue for a big drop (I think that's what the slowdowners were betting on because it's been over 10 years since the last significant drop)? I remember from a long time ago that real estate was 7 year cycles but I'm not sure if that applies now. If 94 and 08 were the last troughs (14 years difference!), would 22 be the next one?
Click to expand...

No one knows. If anyone predicts right, people would worship him/her until that person fails to predict the next one.

I don't think anyone predicted someone wouldn't pay their mortgage, but it happened in last crash.

If there is a crash or any huge housing slowdown, then it would be by something no one's predicted. And yeah, no one knows when.
 
Well... some people act like they know... based on data. :)

History says a drop should happen some time... like I said, maybe coronavirus is the next financial crisis.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Well... some people act like they know... based on data. :)

History says a drop should happen some time... like I said, maybe coronavirus is the next financial crisis.
Click to expand...

Well that's what we do all the time. We try to play God and epic fails come at the end. However, I don't think there is anything wrong with having an estimated guess based on datas, history, or experts' sayings like how some of us are doing here. But it's all guesses, only God knows the future clear.

I personally don't think coronavirus will cause the next housing down turn.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top