Housing Analysis

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irvinehomeowner said:
eyephone said:
irvinehomeowner said:
@eyephone:

I've asked this previously but maybe you missed it.

Can you tell us how much % slowdown and for how long?

I think it?s a wait and see approach. (See what happens in 2019 Q1 to Q2)

Cue the music. I just read an article Zillow says buyer
market in 2020.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.zillow.com/research/2020-buyers-market-21145/amp/

So then I still don?t see how this is different from previous years.

This is happening nationwide. Also, not every year the tax implications of owning a home changes.
 
Compressed-Village said:
Rentals are in demands now more than ever.

Those that are priced out, waiting and timing the market gotta continue to live and rent in the meantime. Millennial will / is a huge driving force behind the rentals. They don?t believe in owning and tie down. Plus the recent grads are bunking together and guess what they prefer homes vs. apartment. There it?s something new and not in the news for y?all.

?Equity Residential Seeks Buyers for Two NYC Buildings

Publicly traded landlord Equity Residential is marketing two Manhattan apartment buildings, and just completed the sale of a third, as it seeks to reduce its holdings in a rental market that?s softening.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...-is-said-to-seek-buyers-for-two-nyc-buildings

Rental market softening? Equity Residential is a publicly trade reit.
 
eyephone said:
irvinehomeowner said:
eyephone said:
irvinehomeowner said:
@eyephone:

I've asked this previously but maybe you missed it.

Can you tell us how much % slowdown and for how long?

I think it?s a wait and see approach. (See what happens in 2019 Q1 to Q2)

Cue the music. I just read an article Zillow says buyer
market in 2020.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.zillow.com/research/2020-buyers-market-21145/amp/

So then I still don?t see how this is different from previous years.

This is happening nationwide. Also, not every year the tax implications of owning a home changes.

The flow/ebb cycle happens nationwide also.

I thought the new tax laws didn't really affect high-end buyers due to AMT and for those that don't finance, there was no mortgage interest write-off to begin with.

What else is different?
 
eyephone said:
Compressed-Village said:
Rentals are in demands now more than ever.

Those that are priced out, waiting and timing the market gotta continue to live and rent in the meantime. Millennial will / is a huge driving force behind the rentals. They don?t believe in owning and tie down. Plus the recent grads are bunking together and guess what they prefer homes vs. apartment. There it?s something new and not in the news for y?all.

?Equity Residential Seeks Buyers for Two NYC Buildings

Publicly traded landlord Equity Residential is marketing two Manhattan apartment buildings, and just completed the sale of a third, as it seeks to reduce its holdings in a rental market that?s softening.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...-is-said-to-seek-buyers-for-two-nyc-buildings

Rental market softening? Equity Residential is a publicly trade reit.

The other part of the article I forgot to mention. It looks like the Huge Reits are unloading properties.

?Cushman & Wakefield brokers Douglas Harmon and Adam Spies are representing Equity Residential and declined to comment. The sales team has also been hired by rival landlord AvalonBay Communities Inc., which is marketing a 50 percent stake in seven of its Manhattan properties, including one each in the West Side neighborhoods of Chelsea and Morningside Heights.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...-is-said-to-seek-buyers-for-two-nyc-buildings

Another article about high supply of rentals.

?Apartment landlords in Manhattan are contending with a flood of new supply that has limited their ability to raise rents. They?re cutting asking prices and granting tenants more breaks such as rent-free months as they struggle to keep their buildings full.

Bloomberg Intelligence: AvalonBay Tapping Investor Interest in NYC Assets

AvalonBay shares fell 0.7 percent Monday, closing at $167.58. They have fallen 6.1 percent this year.

The company, one of the biggest publicly traded U.S. apartment landlords, said the New York market was one of its weakest performers in the first quarter. Supply in the area ?is expected to peak late this year and then fall off considerably in 2019,? Chief Operating Officer Sean Breslin said on the company?s earnings call in April.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...d-to-offer-a-50-stake-in-manhattan-apartments


My thoughts: If the Big reits are unloading. Should you to?  ;)
 
eyephone said:
eyephone said:
Compressed-Village said:
Rentals are in demands now more than ever.

Those that are priced out, waiting and timing the market gotta continue to live and rent in the meantime. Millennial will / is a huge driving force behind the rentals. They don?t believe in owning and tie down. Plus the recent grads are bunking together and guess what they prefer homes vs. apartment. There it?s something new and not in the news for y?all.

?Equity Residential Seeks Buyers for Two NYC Buildings

Publicly traded landlord Equity Residential is marketing two Manhattan apartment buildings, and just completed the sale of a third, as it seeks to reduce its holdings in a rental market that?s softening.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...-is-said-to-seek-buyers-for-two-nyc-buildings

Rental market softening? Equity Residential is a publicly trade reit.

The other part of the article I forgot to mention. It looks like the Huge Reits are unloading properties.

?Cushman & Wakefield brokers Douglas Harmon and Adam Spies are representing Equity Residential and declined to comment. The sales team has also been hired by rival landlord AvalonBay Communities Inc., which is marketing a 50 percent stake in seven of its Manhattan properties, including one each in the West Side neighborhoods of Chelsea and Morningside Heights.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...-is-said-to-seek-buyers-for-two-nyc-buildings

Another article about high supply of rentals.

?Apartment landlords in Manhattan are contending with a flood of new supply that has limited their ability to raise rents. They?re cutting asking prices and granting tenants more breaks such as rent-free months as they struggle to keep their buildings full.

Bloomberg Intelligence: AvalonBay Tapping Investor Interest in NYC Assets

AvalonBay shares fell 0.7 percent Monday, closing at $167.58. They have fallen 6.1 percent this year.

The company, one of the biggest publicly traded U.S. apartment landlords, said the New York market was one of its weakest performers in the first quarter. Supply in the area ?is expected to peak late this year and then fall off considerably in 2019,? Chief Operating Officer Sean Breslin said on the company?s earnings call in April.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...d-to-offer-a-50-stake-in-manhattan-apartments


My thoughts: If the Big reits are unloading. Should you to?  ;)

Herd mentality? Always works against small fish.
 
Compressed-Village said:
eyephone said:
eyephone said:
Compressed-Village said:
Rentals are in demands now more than ever.

Those that are priced out, waiting and timing the market gotta continue to live and rent in the meantime. Millennial will / is a huge driving force behind the rentals. They don?t believe in owning and tie down. Plus the recent grads are bunking together and guess what they prefer homes vs. apartment. There it?s something new and not in the news for y?all.

?Equity Residential Seeks Buyers for Two NYC Buildings

Publicly traded landlord Equity Residential is marketing two Manhattan apartment buildings, and just completed the sale of a third, as it seeks to reduce its holdings in a rental market that?s softening.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...-is-said-to-seek-buyers-for-two-nyc-buildings

Rental market softening? Equity Residential is a publicly trade reit.

The other part of the article I forgot to mention. It looks like the Huge Reits are unloading properties.

?Cushman & Wakefield brokers Douglas Harmon and Adam Spies are representing Equity Residential and declined to comment. The sales team has also been hired by rival landlord AvalonBay Communities Inc., which is marketing a 50 percent stake in seven of its Manhattan properties, including one each in the West Side neighborhoods of Chelsea and Morningside Heights.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...-is-said-to-seek-buyers-for-two-nyc-buildings

Another article about high supply of rentals.

?Apartment landlords in Manhattan are contending with a flood of new supply that has limited their ability to raise rents. They?re cutting asking prices and granting tenants more breaks such as rent-free months as they struggle to keep their buildings full.

Bloomberg Intelligence: AvalonBay Tapping Investor Interest in NYC Assets

AvalonBay shares fell 0.7 percent Monday, closing at $167.58. They have fallen 6.1 percent this year.

The company, one of the biggest publicly traded U.S. apartment landlords, said the New York market was one of its weakest performers in the first quarter. Supply in the area ?is expected to peak late this year and then fall off considerably in 2019,? Chief Operating Officer Sean Breslin said on the company?s earnings call in April.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...d-to-offer-a-50-stake-in-manhattan-apartments


My thoughts: If the Big reits are unloading. Should you to?  ;)

Herd mentality? Always works against small fish.

so we should buy now!?!?    ???
 
meccos12 said:
Compressed-Village said:
eyephone said:
eyephone said:
Compressed-Village said:
Rentals are in demands now more than ever.

Those that are priced out, waiting and timing the market gotta continue to live and rent in the meantime. Millennial will / is a huge driving force behind the rentals. They don?t believe in owning and tie down. Plus the recent grads are bunking together and guess what they prefer homes vs. apartment. There it?s something new and not in the news for y?all.

?Equity Residential Seeks Buyers for Two NYC Buildings

Publicly traded landlord Equity Residential is marketing two Manhattan apartment buildings, and just completed the sale of a third, as it seeks to reduce its holdings in a rental market that?s softening.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...-is-said-to-seek-buyers-for-two-nyc-buildings

Rental market softening? Equity Residential is a publicly trade reit.

The other part of the article I forgot to mention. It looks like the Huge Reits are unloading properties.

?Cushman & Wakefield brokers Douglas Harmon and Adam Spies are representing Equity Residential and declined to comment. The sales team has also been hired by rival landlord AvalonBay Communities Inc., which is marketing a 50 percent stake in seven of its Manhattan properties, including one each in the West Side neighborhoods of Chelsea and Morningside Heights.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...-is-said-to-seek-buyers-for-two-nyc-buildings

Another article about high supply of rentals.

?Apartment landlords in Manhattan are contending with a flood of new supply that has limited their ability to raise rents. They?re cutting asking prices and granting tenants more breaks such as rent-free months as they struggle to keep their buildings full.

Bloomberg Intelligence: AvalonBay Tapping Investor Interest in NYC Assets

AvalonBay shares fell 0.7 percent Monday, closing at $167.58. They have fallen 6.1 percent this year.

The company, one of the biggest publicly traded U.S. apartment landlords, said the New York market was one of its weakest performers in the first quarter. Supply in the area ?is expected to peak late this year and then fall off considerably in 2019,? Chief Operating Officer Sean Breslin said on the company?s earnings call in April.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...d-to-offer-a-50-stake-in-manhattan-apartments


My thoughts: If the Big reits are unloading. Should you to?  ;)

Herd mentality? Always works against small fish.

so we should buy now!?!?    ???

I wouldn?t. This is just the beginning. In my opinion
 
eyephone said:
meccos12 said:
Compressed-Village said:
eyephone said:
eyephone said:
Compressed-Village said:
Rentals are in demands now more than ever.

Those that are priced out, waiting and timing the market gotta continue to live and rent in the meantime. Millennial will / is a huge driving force behind the rentals. They don?t believe in owning and tie down. Plus the recent grads are bunking together and guess what they prefer homes vs. apartment. There it?s something new and not in the news for y?all.

?Equity Residential Seeks Buyers for Two NYC Buildings

Publicly traded landlord Equity Residential is marketing two Manhattan apartment buildings, and just completed the sale of a third, as it seeks to reduce its holdings in a rental market that?s softening.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...-is-said-to-seek-buyers-for-two-nyc-buildings

Rental market softening? Equity Residential is a publicly trade reit.

The other part of the article I forgot to mention. It looks like the Huge Reits are unloading properties.

?Cushman & Wakefield brokers Douglas Harmon and Adam Spies are representing Equity Residential and declined to comment. The sales team has also been hired by rival landlord AvalonBay Communities Inc., which is marketing a 50 percent stake in seven of its Manhattan properties, including one each in the West Side neighborhoods of Chelsea and Morningside Heights.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...-is-said-to-seek-buyers-for-two-nyc-buildings

Another article about high supply of rentals.

?Apartment landlords in Manhattan are contending with a flood of new supply that has limited their ability to raise rents. They?re cutting asking prices and granting tenants more breaks such as rent-free months as they struggle to keep their buildings full.

Bloomberg Intelligence: AvalonBay Tapping Investor Interest in NYC Assets

AvalonBay shares fell 0.7 percent Monday, closing at $167.58. They have fallen 6.1 percent this year.

The company, one of the biggest publicly traded U.S. apartment landlords, said the New York market was one of its weakest performers in the first quarter. Supply in the area ?is expected to peak late this year and then fall off considerably in 2019,? Chief Operating Officer Sean Breslin said on the company?s earnings call in April.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...d-to-offer-a-50-stake-in-manhattan-apartments


My thoughts: If the Big reits are unloading. Should you to?  ;)

Herd mentality? Always works against small fish.

so we should buy now!?!?    ???

I wouldn?t. This is just the beginning. In my opinion

Buy, not buy is not for me to tell you. If you have to sell then you should have done that earlier this year.

Where is Mety, he kept on telling sell now for MAX ROI since earlier this year.
 
Compressed-Village said:
eyephone said:
meccos12 said:
Compressed-Village said:
eyephone said:
eyephone said:
Compressed-Village said:
Rentals are in demands now more than ever.

Those that are priced out, waiting and timing the market gotta continue to live and rent in the meantime. Millennial will / is a huge driving force behind the rentals. They don?t believe in owning and tie down. Plus the recent grads are bunking together and guess what they prefer homes vs. apartment. There it?s something new and not in the news for y?all.

?Equity Residential Seeks Buyers for Two NYC Buildings

Publicly traded landlord Equity Residential is marketing two Manhattan apartment buildings, and just completed the sale of a third, as it seeks to reduce its holdings in a rental market that?s softening.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...-is-said-to-seek-buyers-for-two-nyc-buildings

Rental market softening? Equity Residential is a publicly trade reit.

The other part of the article I forgot to mention. It looks like the Huge Reits are unloading properties.

?Cushman & Wakefield brokers Douglas Harmon and Adam Spies are representing Equity Residential and declined to comment. The sales team has also been hired by rival landlord AvalonBay Communities Inc., which is marketing a 50 percent stake in seven of its Manhattan properties, including one each in the West Side neighborhoods of Chelsea and Morningside Heights.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...-is-said-to-seek-buyers-for-two-nyc-buildings

Another article about high supply of rentals.

?Apartment landlords in Manhattan are contending with a flood of new supply that has limited their ability to raise rents. They?re cutting asking prices and granting tenants more breaks such as rent-free months as they struggle to keep their buildings full.

Bloomberg Intelligence: AvalonBay Tapping Investor Interest in NYC Assets

AvalonBay shares fell 0.7 percent Monday, closing at $167.58. They have fallen 6.1 percent this year.

The company, one of the biggest publicly traded U.S. apartment landlords, said the New York market was one of its weakest performers in the first quarter. Supply in the area ?is expected to peak late this year and then fall off considerably in 2019,? Chief Operating Officer Sean Breslin said on the company?s earnings call in April.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...d-to-offer-a-50-stake-in-manhattan-apartments


My thoughts: If the Big reits are unloading. Should you to?  ;)

Herd mentality? Always works against small fish.

so we should buy now!?!?    ???

I wouldn?t. This is just the beginning. In my opinion

Buy, not buy is not for me to tell you. If you have to sell then you should have done that earlier this year.

Where is Mety, he kept on telling sell now for MAX ROI since earlier this year.

Well I think he was right on that one.  If you want or need to sell, a few months ago was the best time to do it.
 
meccos12 said:
Compressed-Village said:
eyephone said:
meccos12 said:
Compressed-Village said:
eyephone said:
eyephone said:
Compressed-Village said:
Rentals are in demands now more than ever.

Those that are priced out, waiting and timing the market gotta continue to live and rent in the meantime. Millennial will / is a huge driving force behind the rentals. They don?t believe in owning and tie down. Plus the recent grads are bunking together and guess what they prefer homes vs. apartment. There it?s something new and not in the news for y?all.

?Equity Residential Seeks Buyers for Two NYC Buildings

Publicly traded landlord Equity Residential is marketing two Manhattan apartment buildings, and just completed the sale of a third, as it seeks to reduce its holdings in a rental market that?s softening.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...-is-said-to-seek-buyers-for-two-nyc-buildings

Rental market softening? Equity Residential is a publicly trade reit.

The other part of the article I forgot to mention. It looks like the Huge Reits are unloading properties.

?Cushman & Wakefield brokers Douglas Harmon and Adam Spies are representing Equity Residential and declined to comment. The sales team has also been hired by rival landlord AvalonBay Communities Inc., which is marketing a 50 percent stake in seven of its Manhattan properties, including one each in the West Side neighborhoods of Chelsea and Morningside Heights.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...-is-said-to-seek-buyers-for-two-nyc-buildings

Another article about high supply of rentals.

?Apartment landlords in Manhattan are contending with a flood of new supply that has limited their ability to raise rents. They?re cutting asking prices and granting tenants more breaks such as rent-free months as they struggle to keep their buildings full.

Bloomberg Intelligence: AvalonBay Tapping Investor Interest in NYC Assets

AvalonBay shares fell 0.7 percent Monday, closing at $167.58. They have fallen 6.1 percent this year.

The company, one of the biggest publicly traded U.S. apartment landlords, said the New York market was one of its weakest performers in the first quarter. Supply in the area ?is expected to peak late this year and then fall off considerably in 2019,? Chief Operating Officer Sean Breslin said on the company?s earnings call in April.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...d-to-offer-a-50-stake-in-manhattan-apartments


My thoughts: If the Big reits are unloading. Should you to?  ;)

Herd mentality? Always works against small fish.

so we should buy now!?!?    ???

I wouldn?t. This is just the beginning. In my opinion

Buy, not buy is not for me to tell you. If you have to sell then you should have done that earlier this year.

Where is Mety, he kept on telling sell now for MAX ROI since earlier this year.

Well I think he was right on that one.  If you want or need to sell, a few months ago was the best time to do it.

The house would of sold or sit like many other homes a few months ago.
 
Homes flippers are going to get wipe out this round, and the next few.

Short term in my mind is anything less than 5 years hold. There are a few exceptions that some hold for a decade and break even or even at loss when price in all of the cost of ownership. So this is a loan owner not a homeowner after all.
 
Soylent Green Is People said:
Most of the pro flippers will be long out of the market by then, leaving only the "I watch HGTV and it looks reeeely easy" types holding the bag.

Where will the flippers go? Seems like to the Rust Belt. An interesting article from a week ago:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-financial-crisis2008-houseflipping/how-tech-jobs-helped-rust-belt-become-house-flipping-hotspot-idUSKCN1LS1H2

My .02c

Here's a Floral Park home that a flipper picked up for $710k and slapped some lipstick on wanting a $120k profit before costs.  Well, not so fast...they dropped the price by $30k in 18 days and I doubt they'll get a buyer to bite.  They'll be luck to get around $750k and break even on this one after all of the closing and carrying costs.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Ana/2110-N-Greenbrier-St-92706/home/3044659
 
If the price is not a turn off for you then search the zipcode in the link.


https://www.meganslaw.ca.gov/Search.aspx



Floral Park nice as it maybe, and many of the hoods alike will have to dig a bit deeper and see the potential dangers that you put your family, especially children at risks. Multiple offenders and sex offenders a stone throw away from your nice porch.....


now try Irvine.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Soylent Green Is People said:
Most of the pro flippers will be long out of the market by then, leaving only the "I watch HGTV and it looks reeeely easy" types holding the bag.

Where will the flippers go? Seems like to the Rust Belt. An interesting article from a week ago:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-financial-crisis2008-houseflipping/how-tech-jobs-helped-rust-belt-become-house-flipping-hotspot-idUSKCN1LS1H2

My .02c

Here's a Floral Park home that a flipper picked up for $710k and slapped some lipstick on wanting a $120k profit before costs.  Well, not so fast...they dropped the price by $30k in 18 days and I doubt they'll get a buyer to bite.  They'll be luck to get around $750k and break even on this one after all of the closing and carrying costs.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Ana/2110-N-Greenbrier-St-92706/home/3044659

what is the allure of this neighborhood?  schools are 4, 1, and 3.  $800k for a 3 bed in santa ana is a hard pass for me
 
800k for that house is a big turn off for me too.

I know many on this forum have a strong negative opinion about Santa Ana. Some people won?t even step foot in it. But I am a proponent of Santa Ana, at least for investment purposes. Its central location and proximity to job hobs and Irvine will draw people to live there. I lived in Santa Ana in my rental briefly while waiting for my new home construction to finish. It was honestly not that bad.

It?s also just like Eastwood village, only about 50% of people speaks English  >:D
 
If you live in Floral Park, your kids are going to private school. There's allure if you're a doctor or lawyer, with hospitals and courthouses very close. I know two Floral Park families. They love it. The biggest complaint is the homeless problem ever present in the area.
 
Perspective said:
If you live in Floral Park, your kids are going to private school. There's allure if you're a doctor or lawyer, with hospitals and courthouses very close. I know two Floral Park families. They love it. The biggest complaint is the homeless problem ever present in the area.

Majority of the services for the homeless are in Santa Ana.
 
Perspective said:
If you live in Floral Park, your kids are going to private school. There's allure if you're a doctor or lawyer, with hospitals and courthouses very close. I know two Floral Park families. They love it. The biggest complaint is the homeless problem ever present in the area.

so you save $50-100k on the price of a similar home in irvine, then you pay $10-15k per kid per year for private school for 12 years each....doesn't sound like a good roi to me?
 
Phew... that is a sloppy flip. How many flooring types are in the home? I counted 5 different styles. Couldn't see an air conditioning compressor anywhere, but if it's not installed, really a stupid move on the flippers part.

"West Floral Park" is akin to saying "Westside Costa Mesa". Sure, it's beach close Costa Mesa, but it's also brimming with those down on their luck - as I suspect these flippers are going to be once the market determines the real value of this property.

Mater Dei is where the high school kids go, or to some of the private HS in Orange.

Think of it this way - you could pay $10k in Mello Roos and HOA fees for the same home in IUSD, or 10k for a private school education. As noted by others it's also a very, very short commute for those in the healthcare and legal biz.

My .02c
 
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