HOLY SMOKES : Did i read this right? Dow below 10,000 S&P;1,100 Nasdaq 1500. Is this possible by October?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Muzie - My take is that the main reason Paulson is taking over F&F is because if either Fannie or Freddie defaulted on any of their debt, the payoff on the credit default swaps written on their debt is ginormous and would set off cascading defaults. I think this is the same reason Bernanke bailed out JPM by burying Bear Stearns in JPM's books.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1220733963]I have never read or heard of Jim Roger's books, but i have been heavily influenced on what i read in newpapers, media ,and different authors on this topic. Is he very bullish on China and commodities as well? What are some of the titles of his books?

</blockquote>


Is he bullish on China and commodities? Lol. Let's look at the titles:



<a href="http://www.amazon.com/Hot-Commodities-Anyone-Invest-Profitably/dp/0812973712/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1220713554&sr=1-2">Hot Commodities</a>

<a href="http://www.amazon.com/Bull-China-Investing-Profitably-Greatest/dp/B000W93E1G/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1220713554&sr=1-1">A Bull in China</a>



And he didn't write a book about it, but he's a huge dollar bear.



You're in good company, and as I said, he's been spot on for the last five years. In the last five years, commodities are up huge, dollar is down huge, and China is still a double if you bought three years ago.



Will the next five years be an exact repeat of the last five? I don't know. But the credit crisis we have now isn't just a blip on the radar so new data has to be digested; the credit crisis is such a big event, that I have difficulty seeing how the next five will be a continuation of the last five with no effect from the credit crisis in between. Right now, your investment ideas are simply what has worked before - there's no new data.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1199171008]Muzie, An interesting interview with Jim Rogers on his thoughts about bailing out Freddie and Fannie.</blockquote>...

<object width="325" height="250"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/youtube" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="325" height="250"></embed></object></blockquote>


Jim Rogers, Panda is starting to like this guy. Speak the truth brother!!! Word UP!



I like Jim's statement that the CEO of Fannie and Freddie shouldn't of been bailed out, but thrown in Jail. I can imagine the millions of dollars of bonuses funneled into their pockets right before all this went down. Gotta love Capitalism.
 
I having a feeling that the government will get together this week and intervene again to bail out Lehman. This dollar rally reminds me so much of the .com bubble in 2000 and the real estate bubble in 2006. The dumb money is flooding into the U.S. dollar rally with no fundamentals, and the crash in our currency will be that much more severe.



Panda
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1221268905]I having a feeling that the government will get together this week and intervene again to bail out Lehman. This dollar rally reminds me so much of the .com bubble in 2000 and the real estate bubble in 2006. <strong>The dumb money is flooding into the U.S. dollar rally with no fundamentals, and the crash in our currency will be that much more severe. </strong>



Panda</blockquote>


And you are smart money Panda?



Me thinks Panda is trying to "Get self Affirmation" LOL
 
[quote author="optimusprime" date=1221270166][quote author="PANDA" date=1221268905]I having a feeling that the government will get together this week and intervene again to bail out Lehman. This dollar rally reminds me so much of the .com bubble in 2000 and the real estate bubble in 2006. <strong>The dumb money is flooding into the U.S. dollar rally with no fundamentals, and the crash in our currency will be that much more severe. </strong>



Panda</blockquote>


And you are smart money Panda?



Me thinks Panda is trying to "Get self Affirmation" LOL</blockquote>


Optimus,



Self Affirmation??? What the hoot?? I thought that i already popped that pimple on my butt? You are back again.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1221270706][quote author="optimusprime" date=1221270166][quote author="PANDA" date=1221268905]I having a feeling that the government will get together this week and intervene again to bail out Lehman. <span style="color: green;"><strong>This dollar rally reminds me so much of the .com bubble in 2000 and the real estate bubble in 2006.</strong></span> <strong>The dumb money is flooding into the U.S. dollar rally with no fundamentals, and the crash in our currency will be that much more severe. </strong>



Panda</blockquote>


And you are smart money Panda?



Me thinks Panda is trying to "Get self Affirmation" LOL</blockquote>


Optimus,



Self Affirmation??? What the hoot?? I thought that i already popped that pimple on my butt? You are back again.</blockquote>


Yawn same ol' analogies. BTW....Please explain to me how the US Dollar's current rally is comparable to the .com bubble of 2000 and the RE bubble of 2006?



This will be good.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1221268905]I having a feeling that the government will get together this week and intervene again to bail out Lehman. This dollar rally reminds me so much of the .com bubble in 2000 and the real estate bubble in 2006. The dumb money is flooding into the U.S. dollar rally with no fundamentals, and the crash in our currency will be that much more severe.



Panda</blockquote>


You should read some of Mish's discussions on the dollar. With the rest of the world going into recession, central banks will be lowering their interest rates. This is very bullish for the dollar.

<a href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/08/mark-faber-bullish-on-us-bearish-on.html">Marc Faber - Bullish On The US$, Bearish On Commodities</a>
 
[quote author="optimusprime" date=1221272251][quote author="PANDA" date=1221270706][quote author="optimusprime" date=1221270166][quote author="PANDA" date=1221268905]I having a feeling that the government will get together this week and intervene again to bail out Lehman. <span style="color: green;"><strong>This dollar rally reminds me so much of the .com bubble in 2000 and the real estate bubble in 2006.</strong></span> <strong>The dumb money is flooding into the U.S. dollar rally with no fundamentals, and the crash in our currency will be that much more severe. </strong>



Panda</blockquote>


And you are smart money Panda?



Me thinks Panda is trying to "Get self Affirmation" LOL</blockquote>


Optimus,



Self Affirmation??? What the hoot?? I thought that i already popped that pimple on my butt? You are back again.</blockquote>


Yawn same ol' analogies. BTW....Please explain to me how the US Dollar's current rally is comparable to the .com bubble of 2000 and the RE bubble of 2006?



This will be good.</blockquote>




I consider anything that goes up without any fundamentals a bubble.



1. .Com bubble of 2000: "100 P/E ratios on tech stocks are totally normal in this new internet environment to measure the valuations of stocks. 5000 - 6000 Nasdaq is easily in the bag by 2000 - 2002." It doesn't matter if the internet companies are not generating any revenues right now, because you are buying into the future earning potential, which is going to be soooo HUGE!!!



2. 2006 Real estate bubble: "The affordability index does not apply here in SoCal as most people already have a lot of equity in their existing homes. It doesn't matter that the rent/own ratios are so out of wack in Socal, everybody needs a roof over their head and every one wants to live in Irvine where the weather is 70 degrees all year round. People will pay a 100% premium for that. Also we have this huge influx of Rich foreign Chinese immigrants who will buy up every inventory in Socal, so the home prices have to rise 20% percent a year until 2016. Every rich foreigner wants to own a home in OC/LA.



3. Dollar bubble: Bad news, after bad news, after bad news, the dollar is rallying: Indymac down, dollar up. Bear Sterns down, dollar up, Freddie and Fannie down, dollar up, Lehman and Wamu down, dollar up. In the near future: Goldman and Merril down, the dollar surges. Gustav and Ike hits our nation like never before, and the U.S. stock market and the Dollar rallies. The government is going to solve all of our problem so the dollar will continue to rally. All the other foreign countries are doing much worse than us, so they will dump all their own currency and buy up our dollar. All the foreigners will buy up our dollars as there is no other safe place to invest today, therefore the dollar will go up. The election is coming in November so the dollar has to be up. The FEDs are probably cut rates this year, but the government will figure out some way for the dollar to rally. Again, we can't under estimate the power of government because they can do whatever they want right?
 
Ten predictions made by Thomas Tan for 2008 in Dec 27, 2007. I have to say that i am pretty impressed. I wonder what his predictions are for 2009?



http://seekingalpha.com/article/58478-my-ten-predictions-for-2008



So let me ask the people on the IHB? What are some of your predictions for 2009?



I will start out with five of my own predictions:



1) Oil Price are above $150 a barrel

2) 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 7-8%

3) Gold Price above $1200 an ounce.

4) Dollar will continue its long term decline where the index will reach below 70.

5) DOW at the high 9000 or low 10,000 range.
 
What the chances of something like this happening? My goodness, haven't we had enough in the past couple of weeks?



Russian aggression could pull U.S. into war

WASHINGTON, D.C. Taking a hard line on national security, Sarah Palin said yesterday the U. S. could be forced into war against Russia to help defend future NATO allies from possible aggression by Moscow.



http://www.nationalpost.com/news/world/story.html?id=787005
 
Ummm, I was holding out to get back long in the mkt to

10000, but now may want to wait til it gets even lower.



On the day before doomsday?
 
Lawyerliz,



So how low do you think the DOW will go? I agree that there will be a time again where the DOW will be greatly undervalued, which I do not think the time is now. This will be the perfect time to buy back into the DOW again.
 
I know there's fear in the air, per Buffett (get greedy when others are fearful)



But I suspect the bear market is far from over:



There's still a lot of toxic paper out there that hasn't reset yet



I'll probably try to jump in after recovery has started, but the hard part is trying to differentiate a bear market rally from the real thing
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1221336201][quote author="optimusprime" date=1221272251][quote author="PANDA" date=1221270706][quote author="optimusprime" date=1221270166][quote author="PANDA" date=1221268905]I having a feeling that the government will get together this week and intervene again to bail out Lehman. <span style="color: green;"><strong>This dollar rally reminds me so much of the .com bubble in 2000 and the real estate bubble in 2006.</strong></span> <strong>The dumb money is flooding into the U.S. dollar rally with no fundamentals, and the crash in our currency will be that much more severe. </strong>



Panda</blockquote>


And you are smart money Panda?



Me thinks Panda is trying to "Get self Affirmation" LOL</blockquote>


Optimus,



Self Affirmation??? What the hoot?? I thought that i already popped that pimple on my butt? You are back again.</blockquote>


Yawn same ol' analogies. BTW....Please explain to me how the US Dollar's current rally is comparable to the .com bubble of 2000 and the RE bubble of 2006?



This will be good.</blockquote>




I consider anything that goes up without any fundamentals a bubble.



1. .Com bubble of 2000: "100 P/E ratios on tech stocks are totally normal in this new internet environment to measure the valuations of stocks. 5000 - 6000 Nasdaq is easily in the bag by 2000 - 2002." It doesn't matter if the internet companies are not generating any revenues right now, because you are buying into the future earning potential, which is going to be soooo HUGE!!!



2. 2006 Real estate bubble: "The affordability index does not apply here in SoCal as most people already have a lot of equity in their existing homes. It doesn't matter that the rent/own ratios are so out of wack in Socal, everybody needs a roof over their head and every one wants to live in Irvine where the weather is 70 degrees all year round. People will pay a 100% premium for that. Also we have this huge influx of Rich foreign Chinese immigrants who will buy up every inventory in Socal, so the home prices have to rise 20% percent a year until 2016. Every rich foreigner wants to own a home in OC/LA.



3. Dollar bubble: Bad news, after bad news, after bad news, the dollar is rallying: Indymac down, dollar up. Bear Sterns down, dollar up, Freddie and Fannie down, dollar up, Lehman and Wamu down, dollar up. In the near future: Goldman and Merril down, the dollar surges. Gustav and Ike hits our nation like never before, and the U.S. stock market and the Dollar rallies. The government is going to solve all of our problem so the dollar will continue to rally. All the other foreign countries are doing much worse than us, so they will dump all their own currency and buy up our dollar. All the foreigners will buy up our dollars as there is no other safe place to invest today, therefore the dollar will go up. The election is coming in November so the dollar has to be up. The FEDs are probably cut rates this year, but the government will figure out some way for the dollar to rally. Again, we can't under estimate the power of government because they can do whatever they want right?</blockquote>


Pretty good...too bad the US Dollar "BUBBLE" was 2000 to 2001 :)
 
Stocks fall sharply following Lehman bankruptcy, Merrill sale; Dow falls more than 500 points



http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080915/wall_street.html



Alright my fellow IHBloggers, I am going to be brutally honest with all of you. Panda is now starting to get a little scared. Mother of all creatures! DOW is down more than 500 points, I've never seen this type of drop since 9/11.



OK, Panda is scared.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1221538010]Stocks fall sharply following Lehman bankruptcy, Merrill sale; Dow falls more than 500 points



http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080915/wall_street.html



Alright my fellow IHBloggers, I am going to be brutally honest with all of you. Panda is now starting to get a little scared. Mother of all creatures! DOW is down more than 500 points, I've never seen this type of drop since 9/11.



OK, Panda is scared.</blockquote>


When the rest of the general public is scared, we are at the bottom...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top