HOLY SMOKES : Did i read this right? Dow below 10,000 S&P;1,100 Nasdaq 1500. Is this possible by October?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="PANDA" date=1220431273][quote author="graphrix" date=1220422020]We don't get oil from Iran. We boycott their goods.



We won't attack the Saudis. Bush's dad and the Carlyle group would not approve.



The Saudis do not produce a lot of light sweet crude, which is used for fuel. Heavy crude is used for other products like plastic. If we ever did attack it would screw China 10 times more than us. Again, we won't attack the Saudis.



BTW, how has the dollar done the last two weeks? How did it do today?</blockquote>


Graph, you seem to be a very smart guy. Yes, the dollar did rally from its bottom for the past three weeks and yes, it did rally today crushing Commodities, Euros, Swiss Francs, and the London Pound. Let me ask you question? What do you believe are the true fundamentals allowing this dollar to rally? What economic factors are causing this rally in our dollar? Do believe it is happening naturally or there is some manipulation happening behind the scenes?



You have reminded me many times not to bet against the dollar. Why do believe that dollar has now finally come off the bottom and now it will rally against all commodities and other strong foreign currencies in the next 5 years?</blockquote>


Questions, questions, questions.

Panda shall now be named QUESTION-HEAD.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1220431273][quote author="graphrix" date=1220422020]We don't get oil from Iran. We boycott their goods.



We won't attack the Saudis. Bush's dad and the Carlyle group would not approve.



The Saudis do not produce a lot of light sweet crude, which is used for fuel. Heavy crude is used for other products like plastic. If we ever did attack it would screw China 10 times more than us. Again, we won't attack the Saudis.



BTW, how has the dollar done the last two weeks? How did it do today?</blockquote>


Graph, you seem to be a very smart guy. Yes, the dollar did rally from its bottom for the past three weeks and yes, it did rally today crushing Commodities, Euros, Swiss Francs, and the London Pound. Let me ask you question? What do you believe are the true fundamentals allowing this dollar to rally? What economic factors are causing this rally in our dollar? Do believe it is happening naturally or there is some manipulation happening behind the scenes?



You have reminded me many times not to bet against the dollar. Why do believe that dollar has now finally come off the bottom and now it will rally against all commodities and other strong foreign currencies in the next 5 years?</blockquote>


Panda...simple question for you...do you really think the Dow will go below 10,000?
 
Geez, CalGal???



How many names do i have?? Question-Head, Mini-Me, Little Awgee, Panda, Panda Dreaming of Irvine????

You realize Graph and BK has given me permission to ask two questions per week right?
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1220431791]Geez, CalGal???



How many names do i have?? Question-Head, Mini-Me, Little Awgee, Panda, Panda Dreaming of Irvine????

You realize Graph and BK has given me permission to ask two questions per week right?</blockquote>
Question-Head, how many questions did you ask Graph in your last post?
 
[quote author="optimusprime" date=1220431648][quote author="PANDA" date=1220431273][quote author="graphrix" date=1220422020]We don't get oil from Iran. We boycott their goods.



We won't attack the Saudis. Bush's dad and the Carlyle group would not approve.



The Saudis do not produce a lot of light sweet crude, which is used for fuel. Heavy crude is used for other products like plastic. If we ever did attack it would screw China 10 times more than us. Again, we won't attack the Saudis.



BTW, how has the dollar done the last two weeks? How did it do today?</blockquote>


Graph, you seem to be a very smart guy. Yes, the dollar did rally from its bottom for the past three weeks and yes, it did rally today crushing Commodities, Euros, Swiss Francs, and the London Pound. Let me ask you question? What do you believe are the true fundamentals allowing this dollar to rally? What economic factors are causing this rally in our dollar? Do believe it is happening naturally or there is some manipulation happening behind the scenes?



You have reminded me many times not to bet against the dollar. Why do believe that dollar has now finally come off the bottom and now it will rally against all commodities and other strong foreign currencies in the next 5 years?</blockquote>


Panda...simple question for you...do you really think the Dow will go below 10,000?</blockquote>


Optimus, I think so. I think that October will be a very ugly month for the U.S. stock market. I think that the U.S. stock market will be pretty flat in the next 10 years. I am betting my money on foreign markets and commodities for the long haul. We are not going to see the great 20 year stock market boom we saw in the U.S. stock market from the 1980 - 2000. I think that generally it will be flat with some major down turns. Again, if you bought the DOW at the top of 2000, you still have not made your money back today. I strongly believe in what Awgee says that we are 6 years in a major commodity boom that started about 2002.
 
[quote author="CalGal" date=1220432017][quote author="PANDA" date=1220431791]Geez, CalGal???



How many names do i have?? Question-Head, Mini-Me, Little Awgee, Panda, Panda Dreaming of Irvine????

You realize Graph and BK has given me permission to ask two questions per week right?</blockquote>
Question-Head, how many questions did you ask Graph in your last post?</blockquote>


OK, Panda (AKA Question-Head), so Graph and BK said you can ask two questions <u>per week</u>. Let's count <strong><u>todays</u></strong> questions in this <u><strong>ONE</strong></u> thread:



<blockquote>1.HOLY SMOKES : Did i read this right? Dow below 10,000 S&P;1,100 Nasdaq 1500. Is this possible by October? ]Holy Smokes, Did I Read This Right?</blockquote>
<blockquote>2. Still faced with major credit and mortgage problems behind our back, could this rally be for real, or a simple manipulated dollar prop up without any fundamentals backing it up?</blockquote>
<blockquote>3. I?ve also heard rumors that the U.S. is ready to attack the Saudis. If they completely cut off our oil supply are we still going to see below $100 gas prices then? </blockquote>
<blockquote>4. Any Bulls want to make a statement?? </blockquote>
<blockquote>5. The question is by when did Bill Gross predict this?</blockquote>
<blockquote>6. My end of this year ?? </blockquote>
<blockquote>7. By 2010 - 2012...?? </blockquote>
<blockquote>8. Why Nasdaq at 2000? Any reason? </blockquote>
<blockquote>9. Is U.S. really going into war with Iran??</blockquote>
<blockquote>10. We may be seeing $180 if Iran really screws us by cutting our supply of oil?</blockquote>
<blockquote>11. What if Iran teams up with Russia? </blockquote>
<blockquote>12. What is George Bush smoking????</blockquote>
<blockquote>13. Where is all this money going to come from?</blockquote>
<blockquote>14. From the U.S. citizen?s butts??</blockquote>
<blockquote>15. Does he not care about us?</blockquote>
<blockquote>16. Will someone tell me what?s going on??? </blockquote>
<blockquote>17. What do you believe are the true fundamentals allowing this dollar to rally?</blockquote>
<blockquote>18. What economic factors are causing this rally in our dollar? </blockquote>
<blockquote>19. Do believe it is happening naturally or there is some manipulation happening behind the scenes?</blockquote>
<blockquote>20. Was this luck or was this manipulation? </blockquote>
<blockquote>21. Why do believe that dollar has now finally come off the bottom and now it will rally against all commodities and other strong foreign currencies in the next 5 years? </blockquote>
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1220432181][quote author="optimusprime" date=1220431648][quote author="PANDA" date=1220431273][quote author="graphrix" date=1220422020]We don't get oil from Iran. We boycott their goods.



We won't attack the Saudis. Bush's dad and the Carlyle group would not approve.



The Saudis do not produce a lot of light sweet crude, which is used for fuel. Heavy crude is used for other products like plastic. If we ever did attack it would screw China 10 times more than us. Again, we won't attack the Saudis.



BTW, how has the dollar done the last two weeks? How did it do today?</blockquote>


Graph, you seem to be a very smart guy. Yes, the dollar did rally from its bottom for the past three weeks and yes, it did rally today crushing Commodities, Euros, Swiss Francs, and the London Pound. Let me ask you question? What do you believe are the true fundamentals allowing this dollar to rally? What economic factors are causing this rally in our dollar? Do believe it is happening naturally or there is some manipulation happening behind the scenes?



You have reminded me many times not to bet against the dollar. Why do believe that dollar has now finally come off the bottom and now it will rally against all commodities and other strong foreign currencies in the next 5 years?</blockquote>


Panda...simple question for you...do you really think the Dow will go below 10,000?</blockquote>


Optimus, I think so. I think that October will be a very ugly month for the U.S. stock market. I think that the U.S. stock market will be pretty flat in the next 10 years. I am betting my money on foreign markets and commodities for the long haul. We are not going to see the great 20 year stock market boom we saw in the U.S. stock market from the 1980 - 2000. I think that generally it will be flat with some major down turns. Again, if you bought the DOW at the top of 2000, you still have not made your money back today. I strongly believe in what Awgee says that we are 6 years in a major commodity boom that started about 2002.</blockquote>


Friendly wager than Panda.... $50.



If the Dow drops below 10,000 from now until Dec. 31, 2008....you win. If not, then I win.



We will use the honor system and refer to this thread....you post here often and I come on here all the time, I think I registered since early 2007. Plus we have tons of IHB witnesses.



You up for the bet?
 
<blockquote>Friendly wager than Panda.... $50.

If the Dow drops below 10,000 from now until Dec. 31, 2008....you win.

If not, then I win.

We will use the honor system and refer to this thread....you post here often and I come on here all the time, I think I registered since early 2007.

Plus we have tons of IHB witnesses.

You up for the bet?</blockquote>
Good bet. Panda, you in?

I'm backing Optimusprime.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1220434360]HAhaha!!! Are you seriously counting those as my questions? Tough crowd i tell ya.



12. What is George Bush smoking????

14. From the U.S. citizen?s butts??</blockquote>
Question-Head, I believe you ended your sentence with a question mark - therefore, it's a question.

Even if you took those two questions out, you still have twenty or so questions.

And I didn't even look at your other posts today. I only took into consideration this post.
 
Go on, Brave Sir Robin...



<object width="325" height="250"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/youtube" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="325" height="250"></embed></object>
 
I have a rant coming soon in the foreign ETF thread about the dollar and the fundamentals. The clear as day but you are blinded by emotion fundamentals kind of rant. But, I want to [strike]wait a while longer[/strike] see you take a beating on betting against the dollar first. And, I will set up a private game over at <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/">Investopedia</a>, called the Panda challenge. I will invite a few others, maybe CalGal would like to join, and awgee too. We can do updates monthly, quarterly, or every six months if you would like, and we would all have to suck it up and post the stats here.



Time to step up and see if you are the big bad bear that you say you are. You think that I am just picking on you, but what I am really trying to do is save you from losing a lot of money. I am trying to save you from having your down payment fund dwindling down from a place in Irvine to a place in Rialto. You are right, I am a smart guy, and I trying to save you from adding to the worst investment mistake thread. You invest with way, way, way, too much emotion, and emotion is the greatest evil when it comes to investing.
 
<blockquote>As a nation we are consuming and investing about 6 percent more than we are producing.

-Paul Volcker</blockquote>
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1220447512]I have a rant coming soon in the foreign ETF thread about the dollar and the fundamentals. The clear as day but you are blinded by emotion fundamentals kind of rant. But, I want to [strike]wait a while longer[/strike] see you take a beating on betting against the dollar first. And, I will set up a private game over at <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/">Investopedia</a>, called the Panda challenge. I will invite a few others, maybe CalGal would like to join, and awgee too. We can do updates monthly, quarterly, or every six months if you would like, and we would all have to suck it up and post the stats here.



Time to step up and see if you are the big bad bear that you say you are. You think that I am just picking on you, but what I am really trying to do is save you from losing a lot of money. I am trying to save you from having your down payment fund dwindling down from a place in Irvine to a place in Rialto. You are right, I am a smart guy, and I trying to save you from adding to the worst investment mistake thread. <strong>You invest with way, way, way, too much emotion, and emotion is the greatest evil when it comes to investing</strong>.</blockquote>


Really you don't say? I would have never guessed based on Panda's posts hahaha ;-P



That's why I want to become bullish lol
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1220447512]I have a rant coming soon in the foreign ETF thread about the dollar and the fundamentals. The clear as day but you are blinded by emotion fundamentals kind of rant. But, I want to [strike]wait a while longer[/strike] see you take a beating on betting against the dollar first. And, I will set up a private game over at <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/">Investopedia</a>, called the Panda challenge. I will invite a few others, <span style="color: red;">maybe CalGal would like to join,</span> and awgee too. We can do updates monthly, quarterly, or every six months if you would like, and we would all have to suck it up and post the stats here.



Time to step up and see if you are the big bad bear that you say you are. You think that I am just picking on you, but what I am really trying to do is save you from losing a lot of money. I am trying to save you from having your down payment fund dwindling down from a place in Irvine to a place in Rialto. You are right, I am a smart guy, and I trying to save you from adding to the worst investment mistake thread. You invest with way, way, way, too much emotion, and emotion is the greatest evil when it comes to investing.</blockquote>
I'm in.
 
Graph,



I'm curious. what are you invested in? If you are such a dollar-bull you must be in either be all cash (dollars) or heavily invested in U.S. equities with no foriegn and commodity exposure? or shorting everything Panda is invested in. Am i right?



We must make this game fun. If i am heavily invested in anti-dollar investments like Euro, commodities, and foreign equities, you better be invested in mostly dollar bullish investments like the DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P;and CDs in U.S. currency. Let's let the noise settle down and see where we are both at by dec 31, 2008. One of us will be buying a small detached condo in Santa Ana, and the other a nice SFR in Irvine in 2010.



By the end of this year, everyone on the Irvine Housing Blog will know who the TRUE NUTTER is.
 
Interesting insight on the dollar I picked up from another blog



"James Turk - GoldMoney.com August 7, 2008



So what happened to cause the dollar to rally over the past three weeks? In a word, intervention. Central banks have propped up the dollar, and here's the proof.

When central banks intervene in the currency markets, they exchange their currency for dollars. Central banks then use the dollars they acquire to buy US government debt instruments so that they can earn interest on their money. The debt instruments central banks acquire are held in custody for them at the Federal Reserve, which reports this amount weekly.

On July 16, 2008 (the closest date of the weekly reports to the July 15th low in the Dollar Index), the Federal Reserve reported holding $2,349 billion of US government paper in custody for central banks. In its report released today, this amount had grown over the past three weeks to $2,401 billion, a 38.4% annual rate of growth. To put this phenomenally high growth rate into perspective, for the twelve months ending this past July 16th, assets in the Federal Reserve's custody account grew by 17.3%, which is less than one-half the growth rate experienced over the past three weeks.

So central banks were accumulating dollars over the past three weeks at a rate far above what one would expect as a result of the US trade deficit. The logical conclusion is that they were intervening in currency markets. They were buying dollars for the purpose of propping it up, to keep the dollar from falling off the edge of the cliff and doing so ignited a short covering rally, which is not too difficult to do given the leverage employed in the markets these days by hedge funds and others. So central banks pushed in one direction and funds and traders then stepped on board. In other words, central banks ignited the fuse of a bear market rally.

"



Seems to be a good explantion for the unfounded dollar rally we have had lately. Especially since there is no fundemental reason for a dollar rally (any suggestions?).



Once foreign central banks realize that they are doing us a favor by reducing their quality of life, the floor will drop out on the dollar.
 
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