HOLY SMOKES : Did i read this right? Dow below 10,000 S&P;1,100 Nasdaq 1500. Is this possible by October?

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[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225329827]0.5% cut...Market should decline...</blockquote>
Sure looks like it...Dow is down 30+ as we speak. The last 90 minutes shall be very interesting. I have about $1,600 of value in those puts now which is less than 3% of the funds I have in my trading account.
 
My speculation is that this news will be priced in at some point till the end of day. A 300 pt drop or so.



900 point gain yesterday was based on a 100% of a .50 cut and a 46% of a .75. SO .75 should be discounted back.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225330408]My speculation is that this news will be priced in at some point till the end of day. A 300 pt drop or so.



900 point gain yesterday was based on a 100% of a .50 cut and a 46% of a .75. SO .75 should be discounted back.</blockquote>
Market wants to close up again today, at 11:33am it stopped the drop on a dime and shot up...man, this market is insane. I just don't see how much more steam to keep going up is left in the market above 9,200 in the Dow and above 950 in the S&P especially when companies are lowering forecasts left and right and we'll start getting horrible economic news.



When I make my option trades on the indexs I carefully look at the advance/decline numbers and was well as the volume on the upticks and down ticks on the ETFs (DIA, SPY, and QQQQ). When we rally and the number of decliners is higher, that smells to me big time and I enter into puts. When you see big volume on upticks and small volume on downticks with a slightly positive number of advancing stocks, it's time to buy calls.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225331362][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225330408]My speculation is that this news will be priced in at some point till the end of day. A 300 pt drop or so.



900 point gain yesterday was based on a 100% of a .50 cut and a 46% of a .75. SO .75 should be discounted back.</blockquote>
Market wants to close up again today, at 11:33am it stopped the drop on a dime and shot up...man, this market is insane. I just don't see how much more steam to keep going up is left in the market above 9,200 in the Dow and above 950 in the S&P especially when companies are lowering forecasts left and right and we'll start getting horrible economic news.</blockquote>


I'm not worried. THe worst is behind us. I was scared of a .75 or even a 1.0 rate cut. That would have been a big blow.



I wanted a .25...don't mind a .50. The market is trying to digest it right now, but it will go south. If we close flat today (which I doubt), then we'll just blow up tomorrow. Last chance to lock in gains IMO. If it does go up big at the end (doubtful) I will load up more. Thats how confident I feel.



People just like to catch knives imo, but I have been wrong before.
 
I'm going to PM you from here on out. I don't think people here appreciate us littering the economy forum with our speculative chit-chat.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225331588][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225331362][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225330408]My speculation is that this news will be priced in at some point till the end of day. A 300 pt drop or so.



900 point gain yesterday was based on a 100% of a .50 cut and a 46% of a .75. SO .75 should be discounted back.</blockquote>
Market wants to close up again today, at 11:33am it stopped the drop on a dime and shot up...man, this market is insane. I just don't see how much more steam to keep going up is left in the market above 9,200 in the Dow and above 950 in the S&P especially when companies are lowering forecasts left and right and we'll start getting horrible economic news.</blockquote>


I'm not worried. THe worst is behind us. I was scared of a .75 or even a 1.0 rate cut. That would have been a big blow.



I wanted a .25...don't mind a .50. The market is trying to digest it right now, but it will go south. If we close flat today (which I doubt), then we'll just blow up tomorrow. Last chance to lock in gains IMO. <strong> If it does go up big at the end (doubtful) I will load up more.</strong> Thats how confident I feel.



People just like to catch knives imo, but I have been wrong before.</blockquote>
Ditto, I'll pick up a few more puts. It's not so much knife catchers, but it's the heard mentality of not wanting to be left behind on a huge rally and shorts running for the door to cover. Either way, those rallies are short lived because the smart bears pounce once they see things settle down.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225331960]I'm going to PM you from here on out. I don't think people here appreciate us littering the economy forum with our speculative chit-chat.</blockquote>Says who? I'm getting ready to retire from the trades you've posted. :cheese:
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225333061][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225331588][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225331362][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225330408]My speculation is that this news will be priced in at some point till the end of day. A 300 pt drop or so.



900 point gain yesterday was based on a 100% of a .50 cut and a 46% of a .75. SO .75 should be discounted back.</blockquote>
Market wants to close up again today, at 11:33am it stopped the drop on a dime and shot up...man, this market is insane. I just don't see how much more steam to keep going up is left in the market above 9,200 in the Dow and above 950 in the S&P especially when companies are lowering forecasts left and right and we'll start getting horrible economic news.</blockquote>


I'm not worried. THe worst is behind us. I was scared of a .75 or even a 1.0 rate cut. That would have been a big blow.



I wanted a .25...don't mind a .50. The market is trying to digest it right now, but it will go south. If we close flat today (which I doubt), then we'll just blow up tomorrow. Last chance to lock in gains IMO. <strong> If it does go up big at the end (doubtful) I will load up more.</strong> Thats how confident I feel.



People just like to catch knives imo, but I have been wrong before.</blockquote>
Ditto, I'll pick up a few more puts. It's not so much knife catchers, but it's the heard mentality of not wanting to be left behind on a huge rally and shorts running for the door to cover. Either way, those rallies are short lived because the smart bears pounce once they see things settle down.</blockquote>


As I mentioned in the PM I wouldn't cost average with Nov puts. Buy Dec or Jan.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225335588]Thats what I'm talking about. I knew they had to price in the .75 rate cut bet....suckas!!!</blockquote>
Yeah, what the hell was that bullcrap late day rally try all about???
 
Thats a typical lets take advantage of the idiots that don't understand what is already priced in the market and what isn't.



So why not let idiots push prices up further. Then the smart players sold into the rally. If GDP numbers are bad tomorrow, its going to be a bloodbath on wall-st. Also, we all know that the FED lost all control of the market. The 50% cut is their way of trying to still say "we are in control" but that control was lost ages ago.



The market will be at mercy of the market itself.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225336802]Thats a typical lets take advantage of the idiots that don't understand what is already priced in the market and what isn't.



So why not let idiots push prices up further. Then the smart players sold into the rally. If GDP numbers are bad tomorrow, its going to be a bloodbath on wall-st. Also, we all know that the FED lost all control of the market. The 50% cut is their way of trying to still say "we are in control" but that control was lost ages ago.



The market will be at mercy of the market itself.</blockquote>
Very true, the Fed is just about out of bullets and they have little influence in the market for now. The market is just made of momentum money (mo-mo) either pushing the market up or hammaring down. I enjoy watching CNBC in the morning before work as they just keep asking every since guest about whether we've hit bottom and if it's time to buy now...such cheerleaders. Don't they know that they only sucker the idiot money in to get slaughtered???
 
[quote author="Astute Observer" date=1225333284][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225331960]I'm going to PM you from here on out. I don't think people here appreciate us littering the economy forum with our speculative chit-chat.</blockquote>


No one complainted, so that should be a good indicator that the chit-chat are welcomed.... but then, I am in the minority sometimes.</blockquote>


The chit-chat are useful. I'm thinking of starting to trade myself. Where to open an account is the next question? I used to have Brown & Company that gives a lot of trading info.
 
[quote author="skek" date=1225338199]Let me add to the others -- please don't take this conversation offline. I'm following the market on a daily basis out of sheer entertainment value, and I appreciate the commentary from experienced traders like blackvault and trojan. I *may* have placed a few trades myself, but I'll only admit it if they make money...</blockquote>
I have no problem letting you guys in and what I'm doin in the market with part of my sales proceeds. I normally have no more than 5% of my brokerage cash balance in one position (I buy either calls or puts on indexs because I've had my arse handed to me on individual stock option trades). If I do have more than 5% it's because I have bets on both sides (calls and puts) like I did earlier today. I dont mind posting up both my winning and losing trades.
 
[quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1225341241][quote author="Astute Observer" date=1225333284][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225331960]I'm going to PM you from here on out. I don't think people here appreciate us littering the economy forum with our speculative chit-chat.</blockquote>


No one complainted, so that should be a good indicator that the chit-chat are welcomed.... but then, I am in the minority sometimes.</blockquote>


The chit-chat are useful. I'm thinking of starting to trade myself. Where to open an account is the next question? I used to have Brown & Company that gives a lot of trading info.</blockquote>
Either Scottstrade, TDAmeritrade, or Charles Schwab. I'm with TDAmeritrade for now, but will be switching over to Charles Schwab in Jan. after I get my bonus because they pay a higher interest rate on brokerage account cash balances than TDAmeritrade plus I found out they have about the same pricing for trades as TDAmeritrade if you do 120+ trades per year (I'll do at least 200).
 
Isn't it odd that this sudden interest in trading all starts after, well, most of the easy action was already played out? I mean, the easy money for bears was made in September and early October. Any money made by bears these past two weeks was definitely not "easy" :-P. I'm seeing so many people (not here) that have recently started daytrading their IRAs... This can't end well, one way or the other.



People bang on Panda but it should be remarked he DID start this thread on September 2nd, which nails almost to the day the begin of the decline. So the talk about Panda being some kind of contrarian indicator is rather harsh :-). Don't bet against the Panda! I did jump off the gold bandwagon though, you're alone on that one :-P.



I'm sitting happy on the gains form the covered calls I sold. Capped gains, but the calls have a loooong way to go before I even show up any kind of loss on my end (-30% drop on the underlying from here). Slow & steady wins the race.
 
Yeah Baby!!!! Panda doing the MOON WALK.



Let the Swiss Francs Rise!

Let the Canadian Rise!

Let the Euros Rise!

Let the Japanese Yen Rise!



Last but not least, let the Gold Rise!
 
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