HOLY SMOKES : Did i read this right? Dow below 10,000 S&P;1,100 Nasdaq 1500. Is this possible by October?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<blockquote>4) You are a day trader. I am long-term investor. Do i really care that Gold goes down to $280, when i know in the long run Gold Prices will soar to $2000, $3000, $4000 an ounce? No, not really.... That's when i will be selling my Gold to you.</blockquote>


This particular statement reminds me of this...



I am a long-term investor. Do I really care that my home in the IE goes down to 150K, when I know in the long run my home will be worth 800K, 1M, 1.5M? No, not really.... That's when I will be selling my home to you.
 
You may be in good shape. Dow IMHO was a huge short cover today.



Kind of like the VW thing. Now thats some interesting reading.

For a few hours VW was bigger than Exxon in market cap. Go figure.

<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/27414247">http://www.cnbc.com/id/27414247</a>



As long as the VIX stays at insane levels we will see these wild swings

in the market. Timing it is more than an artform. Its blind idiot luck.
 
[quote author="bltserv" date=1225251160]You may be in good shape. Dow IMHO was a huge short cover today.



Kind of like the VW thing. Now thats some interesting reading.

For a few hours VW was bigger than Exxon in market cap. Go figure.

<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/27414247">http://www.cnbc.com/id/27414247</a>



As long as the VIX stays at insane levels we will see these wild swings

in the market. Timing it is more than an artform. Its blind idiot luck.</blockquote>


The news was bad today, no reason for it to react the way it did. I agree, a short squeeze. If it pops another 250-400 pts early tomorrow out of the gate I'll double up to cost average.



Thursday is GPD day so it should create volatility. Obviously I hope its bad. A nice gift on top of a bad GDP would be that Fed comes out and says they will not lower rates further (since the market is pricing in atleast a .50 drop).

.

.

.

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EDIT: Some have PM'd to know exactly what I bought. Here it is.



November

MT: 22.5@3.2 (30 Contracts) Current: 2.85

CSCO: 18@1.27 (50 Contracts) Current 1.1

XOM: 70@4.00 (15 Contracts) Current 3.5



Also, eyeing BAC or MS as a possibility.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225253423]Also, eyeing BAC or MS as a possibility.</blockquote>


I'm with you on BAC. The $20 strike puts for a $1 are looking really good.



Now, I just need to get in my time machine and buy the calls from this AM and have sold them in the afternoon.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1225259660][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225253423]Also, eyeing BAC or MS as a possibility.</blockquote>


I'm with you on BAC. The $20 strike puts for a $1 are looking really good.



Now, I just need to get in my time machine and buy the calls from this AM and have sold them in the afternoon.</blockquote>


Yeah, I almost want the market to pop in the morning so I can pick some up. I just don't want to buy BAC or anymore puts if market nose dives tomorrow.

The best scenario would be market to pop 300pts or so in the morning, load up on more puts (BAC) and start popping champaigne bottles or perhaps pop bullets in my head.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225268871]Yeah, I almost want the market to pop in the morning so I can pick some up. I just don't want to buy BAC or anymore puts if market nose dives tomorrow. The best scenario would be market to pop 300pts or so in the morning, load up on more puts (BAC) and start popping champaigne bottles or perhaps pop bullets in my head.</blockquote>


I'm on the same page. Wait and see what happens, and if rally continues, buy the puts. It looks like it could be headed that way. Asian markets are up at the moment, not that it means all that much. I will also be watching the $12.50 puts on C. Both were up in after hours, again, not that it means all that much. I have read a great paper on why after hours consistently doesn't mean much.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225253423][quote author="bltserv" date=1225251160]You may be in good shape. Dow IMHO was a huge short cover today.



Kind of like the VW thing. Now thats some interesting reading.

For a few hours VW was bigger than Exxon in market cap. Go figure.

<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/27414247">http://www.cnbc.com/id/27414247</a>



As long as the VIX stays at insane levels we will see these wild swings

in the market. Timing it is more than an artform. Its blind idiot luck.</blockquote>


The news was bad today, no reason for it to react the way it did. I agree, a short squeeze. If it pops another 250-400 pts early tomorrow out of the gate I'll double up to cost average.



Thursday is GPD day so it should create volatility. Obviously I hope its bad. A nice gift on top of a bad GDP would be that Fed comes out and says they will not lower rates further (since the market is pricing in atleast a .50 drop).

.

.

.

.

EDIT: Some have PM'd to know exactly what I bought. Here it is.



November

MT: 22.5@3.2 (30 Contracts) Current: 2.85

CSCO: 18@1.27 (50 Contracts) Current 1.1

XOM: 70@4.00 (15 Contracts) Current 3.5



Also, eyeing BAC or MS as a possibility.</blockquote>
Today was the mother of short squeezing but I kind of sensed it was gonna be an up day (not that big though). Still holding my 1 Dow put and 1 S&P put, but I picked up 3 QQQQ Nov calls @ $2.95 and 2 DOW Nov calls @ $5.95 and will hold until right before the FED makes their decision at 11:15am tomorrow (mainly to hedge my calls). I think then we sell off and get hammared on the horrible GDP number on Thursday.
 
I won't sleep tonight. My mind is on overload pondering various strategies and decisions...We might even see a short term bull market...I'm confused.



I just want tomorrow to come so I can know what move to make next.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225280618]I won't sleep tonight. My mind is on overload pondering various strategies and decisions...We might even see a short term bull market...I'm confused.



I just want tomorrow to come so I can know what move to make next.</blockquote>
I'll be gettin up at 6am and keepin an eye on CNBC until 9am when I have to leave for work. This market is nutz, I hope we got limit up on futures so I can dump my calls tomorrow. I really think we sell off on the FED decision and then take another step down on Thursday due (I'm also hopping for a horrible GDP number). The Dow just does not want to go below 8000 and the S&P doesn't want to go below 850, but the NASDAQ touched new lows yesterday. Short covering rallies usually have little steam and staying power...up too high, too fast.
 
The herd is afraid.



If your stomach can take it and your reflexes sharp, there's money to made.



Just don't be in the bathroom when the bit of news hits that spooks the herd.



What exactly was announced at 2PM that made the market run nearly 800 points?
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1225281426]What exactly was announced at 2PM that made the market run nearly 800 points?</blockquote>


There was a false rumor that IrvineRenter called the bottom for housing. Tomorrow morning will see the sell off when everyone realizes it was false.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1225281426]The herd is afraid.



If your stomach can take it and your reflexes sharp, there's money to made.



Just don't be in the bathroom when the bit of news hits that spooks the herd.



What exactly was announced at 2PM that made the market run nearly 800 points?</blockquote>
All I know is that I bought my calls within the first 15 minutes of the open (bought a bit too early once again) and then the market began to tank after the consumer confidence numbers were released at 7am until it hit bottom at 9am (I was too afraid to pick up more calls and thought that we might sell off into the close like yesterday...nope, mother of short squeezes). I think this rally fizzles quickly and it was short covering and on relatively low volume.
 
Here is our future...following the footsteps of Japan towards our lost decade...or two.



NIKKEI
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Followed by where we are at now and going...
<fieldset class="gc-fieldset">
<legend> Attached files </legend> <a href="http://www.talkirvine.com/converted_files/images/forum_attachments/153_XBJs5ArLRSC3RUQxPiyN.png"><img src="http://www.talkirvine.com/converted_files/images/forum_attachments/153_XBJs5ArLRSC3RUQxPiyN.png" class="gc-images" title="us collapse.png" style="max-width:300px" /></a> <a href="http://www.talkirvine.com/converted_files/images/forum_attachments/154_faBoJ4ovpvcT2oW47ebR.png"><img src="http://www.talkirvine.com/converted_files/images/forum_attachments/154_faBoJ4ovpvcT2oW47ebR.png" class="gc-images" title="$spx-target.png" style="max-width:300px" /></a> </fieldset>
 
AND TADA...our own Lost Decade (s)...
<fieldset class="gc-fieldset">
<legend> Attached files </legend> <a href="http://www.talkirvine.com/converted_files/images/forum_attachments/152_61aYdwZp1uWTkoMB9e8h.png"><img src="http://www.talkirvine.com/converted_files/images/forum_attachments/152_61aYdwZp1uWTkoMB9e8h.png" class="gc-images" title="us future.png" style="max-width:300px" /></a> </fieldset>
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225279456][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225253423][quote author="bltserv" date=1225251160]You may be in good shape. Dow IMHO was a huge short cover today.



Kind of like the VW thing. Now thats some interesting reading.

For a few hours VW was bigger than Exxon in market cap. Go figure.

<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/27414247">http://www.cnbc.com/id/27414247</a>



As long as the VIX stays at insane levels we will see these wild swings

in the market. Timing it is more than an artform. Its blind idiot luck.</blockquote>


The news was bad today, no reason for it to react the way it did. I agree, a short squeeze. If it pops another 250-400 pts early tomorrow out of the gate I'll double up to cost average.



Thursday is GPD day so it should create volatility. Obviously I hope its bad. A nice gift on top of a bad GDP would be that Fed comes out and says they will not lower rates further (since the market is pricing in atleast a .50 drop).

.

.

.

.

EDIT: Some have PM'd to know exactly what I bought. Here it is.



November

MT: 22.5@3.2 (30 Contracts) Current: 2.85

CSCO: 18@1.27 (50 Contracts) Current 1.1

XOM: 70@4.00 (15 Contracts) Current 3.5



Also, eyeing BAC or MS as a possibility.</blockquote>
Today was the mother of short squeezing but I kind of sensed it was gonna be an up day (not that big though). Still holding my 1 Dow put and 1 S&P put, but I picked up 3 QQQQ Nov calls @ $2.95 and 2 DOW Nov calls @ $5.95 and will hold until right before the FED makes their decision at 11:15am tomorrow (mainly to hedge my calls). I think then we sell off and get hammared on the horrible GDP number on Thursday.</blockquote>
Sold the 3 QQQQ calls @ $5.30 and the 2 DOW calls @ $11.55 about 10 minutes ago. I'm still holding onto my 1 DOW put and 1 S&P put.
 
Good luck. But 1 put won't kill you if you call it wrong. I'm trading about 5% of my portfolio, which is more than I like to place on a simple bet...
 
I'm hoping for a .25 cut, but .50 will be ok too. .75 or higher will be a horrid scenario.



Remember the market is about 100% priced in for .50...so we won't get upward movement on .50 but might actually drop 300-400 pts since market is betting (46% probability) that we will get a .75, so that is priced in as well.

If we get a .75 I"m expecting a 300-400 pts jump. IF we get 1% (low probability) look for a 800pt jump.



A 0% rate cut, and you're looking at a -800 pt drop.
 
LOL Volume right now is going insane...everybody making last minute adjustments...insanity.



Something has leaked...but mainstreet doesn't know yet.
 
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