HOLY SMOKES : Did i read this right? Dow below 10,000 S&P;1,100 Nasdaq 1500. Is this possible by October?

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[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1224102768][quote author="awgee" date=1224097556]It seems like there are alot of folks talking about bargain prices and great values. Doesn't sound like a bottom to me. I would guess the main topic at the bottom will be how risky it is to invest in stocks, not how someone may miss the bus if they keep waiting, or how you don't want to sell at the bottom.</blockquote>


Just like in our housing market, the first stage of the bear market decline is greeted with denial and optimism. When this market grinds lower for 6-9 months, then nobody will be talking about bargains anymore.</blockquote>


At that point, I am counting on you to tell me what the bargains are. I am not so good at going long or picking stocks.
 
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...pe=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on



Between 1962 - 1980 we can see that the DOW moved sideways for almost 20 years. The chart sort of looks like two big Butts from the Rap Video from Sir Mix a Lot from the 1990s.



I am wondering if DOW of 2000 - 2020 cycle is going to repeat 1960 - 1980 cycle. The interesting part is that we can see sharp declines and sharp increase but at the end we are at the same place.



I have feeling that the DOW will shoot back up to the 11,000 - 12,000 range and then decline sharply again to the 7500 - 8500 range and then rise sharply again until 2020. By 2020, I am thinking that we may be only 5% - 7% higher than where the DOW was at 2000. Perhaps from 2020 - 2040 will be the next Biggest stock market rally in U.S. history where the DOW does reach new highs to 40,000.



If you look at the DOW from 2000 until 2008, we are pretty much in the same spot as year 2000. The biggest bull market in the United States was from 1980 - 2000, which ended in year 2000. What i am trying to say is that the REAL bull market ended in the year 2000, not in 2007. Alan Greenspan has postponed our Butts getting slapped to now instead of 2000, excect we going to get out Butts slapped 10 times harder had we gotten our spanking in eight years ago.



I am no expert on the DOW, I am just expressing my observation. What do you guys think?
 
[quote author="acpme" date=1224107697]there's only one constant bargain out there...

norms steak and eggs</blockquote>
That sounds really good right now. =oD..............
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1224102768][quote author="awgee" date=1224097556]It seems like there are alot of folks talking about bargain prices and great values. Doesn't sound like a bottom to me. I would guess the main topic at the bottom will be how risky it is to invest in stocks, not how someone may miss the bus if they keep waiting, or how you don't want to sell at the bottom.</blockquote>


Just like in our housing market, the first stage of the bear market decline is greeted with denial and optimism. When this market grinds lower for 6-9 months, then nobody will be talking about bargains anymore.</blockquote>


Right on.



So many knife catchers and so why not keep throwing knives?
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1224038990]Well I bent over and took it hard....how enjoyable.</blockquote>


Did you hold these puts? If you did, you must be very happy today.
 
Never a point of <strong>selling</strong> when you were down 75%...I did load up on nov puts yesterday to counter my timing.



I sold my october puts just about 10 minutes ago for a 37% gain. Novs are up about 42% but holding on for now.



I half way got back into the Panda's challange and I try to mimic what I do IRL, but I don't get to it all.



As far as happy? Yeah, I'm already half drunk...



EDIT: I worded that wrong. Never a point of selling when are down 75% not holding :P

EDIT2: I just dumped the rest of Nov as well. No point of being greedy.
 
[quote author="acpme" date=1224107697]there's only one constant bargain out there...

norms steak and eggs</blockquote>


How about the two Jack in the Box tacos for $0.99?
 
McCormick and Schmicks has a Happy Hour Burger for $1.95 on Main Street

in Santa Ana. Its like $ 7.95 on the Lunch Menu.

Full size Burger and Fries. Starts at 4:00 PM. Best deal around.

<a href="http://www.mccormickandschmicks.com/media/Bar_Menu.pdf">http://www.mccormickandschmicks.com/media/Bar_Menu.pdf</a>

Maybe good at Irvine too.





Today just goes to show how fake that "Monday" rally was on low volume. The bottom is still

down stream. Lets see how Asia does tonight. At least Oil is falling and the dollar

is rebounding. Time to roll over my CD`s tomorrow. It might not be much profit. But with days like today I sure as hell sleep better. Its call preservation of assets. Screw the risk.
 
For a peek-a-boo on the destination of the Dow:



<a href="http://paul.kedrosky.com/WindowsLiveWriter/Dow7000.MyFault_EDD9/dow-trend-7000_thumb.png">Dow chartporn</a>
 
I am at work and right now the Nikkei is going to open

off about 12% if you look at the futures on CNBC Australia.

Off like 1145 Points. Yikes.

All this talk about Hedge Funds going belly up as everyone

wants redemption's is getting dangerous too.



We could be at that 7000 number this week.

At 700 Points a day we only have a little more than a week in the tank

still.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1224138977]For a peek-a-boo on the destination of the Dow:



<a href="http://paul.kedrosky.com/WindowsLiveWriter/Dow7000.MyFault_EDD9/dow-trend-7000_thumb.png">Dow chartporn</a></blockquote>


dude draws red line on graph, says market will bottom at the end of said line
 
[quote author="upperlowerclass" date=1224140371][quote author="awgee" date=1224138977]For a peek-a-boo on the destination of the Dow:



<a href="http://paul.kedrosky.com/WindowsLiveWriter/Dow7000.MyFault_EDD9/dow-trend-7000_thumb.png">Dow chartporn</a></blockquote>


dude draws red line on graph, says market will bottom at the end of said line</blockquote>


Plotting that same data on a logarithmic scale would tell a significantly different story.
 
[quote author="reid" date=1224144223][quote author="upperlowerclass" date=1224140371][quote author="awgee" date=1224138977]For a peek-a-boo on the destination of the Dow:



<a href="http://paul.kedrosky.com/WindowsLiveWriter/Dow7000.MyFault_EDD9/dow-trend-7000_thumb.png">Dow chartporn</a></blockquote>


dude draws red line on graph, says market will bottom at the end of said line</blockquote>


Plotting that same data on a logarithmic scale would tell a significantly different story.</blockquote>


What story would it tell?
 
Okay! That's it! This has gone far enough!



<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aAivN03d0_mk&refer=home">Nascar</a>
 
Instead of looking for a bottom throught technical analysis or historical P/E ratios, you may want to think about historical dividend yields. Once folks get over the idea of speculating on stock appreciation, they will look at dividends.



What do you think the historical average dividend yield is? And what do you think it is today? And what has it been at market bottoms?



Oh yeah! Dividends! What a concept.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1224157400]Instead of looking for a bottom throught technical analysis or historical P/E ratios, you may want to think about historical dividend yields. Once folks get over the idea of speculating on stock appreciation, they will look at dividends.



What do you think the historical average dividend yield is? And what do you think it is today? And what has it been at market bottoms?



Oh yeah! Dividends! What a concept.</blockquote>


PCU, FRO, and AGNC purchased at the end of todays trading session for my own personal account. (I'm in early accumulation stage)
 
Lets see if we get another final hour submarine plunge of the market

again today. This thing is like a basketball game last couple weeks.

The final hour is the entire day.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1224157400]Instead of looking for a bottom throught technical analysis or historical P/E ratios, you may want to think about historical dividend yields. Once folks get over the idea of speculating on stock appreciation, they will look at dividends.



What do you think the historical average dividend yield is? And what do you think it is today? And what has it been at market bottoms?



Oh yeah! Dividends! What a concept.</blockquote>


you could argue the div yields are worse than they look too. as focused as everyone is right now at falling prices, i think its also wise to be skeptical of earnings, including the possibility of companies not covering their divs or cutting them.
 
[quote author="acpme" date=1224216747][quote author="awgee" date=1224157400]Instead of looking for a bottom throught technical analysis or historical P/E ratios, you may want to think about historical dividend yields. Once folks get over the idea of speculating on stock appreciation, they will look at dividends.



What do you think the historical average dividend yield is? And what do you think it is today? And what has it been at market bottoms?



Oh yeah! Dividends! What a concept.</blockquote>


you could argue the div yields are worse than they look too. as focused as everyone is right now at falling prices, i think its also wise to be skeptical of earnings, including the possibility of companies not covering their divs or cutting them.</blockquote>


Part of the reason few people look at dividends anymore is because it is so rare that a stock is valued at its cashflow basis. Our housing market detaches from its cashflow basis (rental parity) and stay inflated for extended periods, but at least it returns periodically and stays there a while. Stocks have detached from the dividend cashflow fundamental for so long that analysts had to invent P/E ratios to establish a "new" fundamental for stock valuation. I had read that the last time stocks were properly valued on a cashflow basis was during the deep market correction of 1973/1974.



Awgee and Acpme are both right though. Cashflow basis should form an solid bottom in the equities markets, assuming of course, the cashflow is real and sustainable.
 
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