HOLY SMOKES : Did i read this right? Dow below 10,000 S&P;1,100 Nasdaq 1500. Is this possible by October?

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<blockquote>It's not the hedge funds silly, it's the companies that are crap are crap, and those that are solid are solid.</blockquote>


I'm sorry but not an inch of my body can agree with your statement. Market manipulation happens all the time. Perhaps not "just" a hedge fund, but rather I should say anybody with a large pool of money that can move stock significantly. Plenty of solid companies are played around with and manipulated. If you don't think hedge funds or other institutions with alot of money move stock prices either up or down to benefit their pocket while fundamentals are screeming the opposite, then you are missing part of the picture. There have been plenty of stocks that I bought based on strong fundamentals, yet the price of it went down or stayed stagnant as high as 3 years. Then all of a sudden when the big boys are done loading up, you experience mass appreciation.



WAKE UP! This isn't 1950 wall street.



I really hope graphrx that your statement is a joke or meant something else that I'm not seeing. If its not, I understand why you wanted to meet for lunch for advice.
 
[quote author="acpme" date=1223524201]what just happened here? optimus prime went megatron all of a sudden.</blockquote>


Ya that was weird. And uncalled for.



The market does that to people. It's so manic-depressive it's driving people against each other.
 
that makes absolutely no sense. even if they theoretically could move the mkt, why would any large pool of money purposely invest the wrong way?



so let's say i think company A is solid and company B sucks. i should do the opposite -- short A and go long B, hoping i can somehow manipulate the price of each to make a profit, while taking the risk if my plan doesnt work i'd be on the wrong side of trades i don't even fundamentally like? why wouldn't i just go long A and short B to begin with and save myself a lot of trouble, not to mention the risk.



market manipulation is a common fear although almost never the culprit, like worrying about mad cow or avian flu. the truth which people hate to admit is they made a bad stock pick. they like a company but their investment doesn't pan out. but since they thought it was a great stock, it *must* be... and the only reason it didn't go up was hedge funds screwed everyone over, right? sorry but if an apparently solid company that you like is stagnant for 3 yrs, there's probably something you don't know about that others do. THAT's the part of the picture you're missing.
 
Just another quick follow up. The big drops in stocks right now is a result of large amount of money flowing out. Due to people panicing; so does that mean these companies are worth less as a result?



Same can be compared when a hedge fund or another institution, entity...whatever...decides that they had enough profits and want to unload their shares, the value of the company can drop significantly. If the drop is significant enough, it can take weeks, months or years before the stock moves back to its high and maybe never. So is this company now all of a sudden worth 20% less because some hedge fund unloaded? Was CSCO solid in 2K when it was 90 a share? I mean it is solid right?



If you think solid companys are solid, then you should have bought MSFT, CSCO, FRO, MDR etc...weeks before this drop. I mean they are solid right? Well if you did then you lost a pretty penny. NO my friend, solid has JACK SH** to do with the price of stock. Wall Street is a gambling casino, and if you want to buy something solid but you are running towards the herd vs with it, you will be crushed.



Like I said...keep sticking to your 1950's mentality of investing. I'm sure you will do well in the long run.
 
[quote author="acpme" date=1223527130]that makes absolutely no sense. even if they theoretically could move the mkt, why would any large pool of money purposely invest the wrong way?



so let's say i think company A is solid and company B sucks. i should do the opposite -- short A and go long B, hoping i can somehow manipulate the price of each to make a profit, while taking the risk if my plan doesnt work i'd be on the wrong side of trades i don't even fundamentally like? why wouldn't i just go long A and short B to begin with and save myself a lot of trouble, not to mention the risk.



market manipulation is a common fear although almost never the culprit, like worrying about mad cow or avian flu. the truth which people hate to admit is they made a bad stock pick. they like a company but their investment doesn't pan out. but since they thought it was a great stock, it *must* be... and the only reason it didn't go up was hedge funds screwed everyone over, right? sorry but if an apparently solid company that you like is stagnant for 3 yrs, there's probably something you don't know about that others do. THAT's the part of the picture you're missing.</blockquote>


Is it me or do people here need an educational tour on market manipulation in wall street and how money supply effects prices of stocks?



I own 95% of company A. Its worth 100 Million. I decide I no longer want to hold company A because maybe I met my investors objective of 10% and want to cash out. Do you have any clue what dumping a significant amount of share will do to the price of a stock? Hammer it to the point where it might take years to recover. So if the company based on your claim of it being "solid" is worth 100 million and now only worth half as much. Why such a drastic change over night?



Now. Do you know how company A will unload its shares? By market manipulation. This is done by unloading chunks of their shares, flooding the market (during low volume trading) with little orders pushing the stock price up, then unloading another chunk of shares, then during low volume trading flooding the market with little tiny 100 share orders pushing the stock price up, then unloading another chunk...you get the point.



THIS IS HOW WALL STREETS BIG BOYS WORK. WAKE UP!!!



EDIT Previous Line: THIS IS HOW WALL STREETS BIG BOYS WORK <strong>MY FRIEND</strong>. WAKE UP!!!



I started sounding like McCain.
 
I can spin it another way. Lets say there is only ONE company in all of Wall Street with two investors in it. All of a sudden another investor decides to enter the stock market and wants to invest as well (increase in money supply) thus pushing the price of the stock up. Is this company now "more solid" as a result? lol, come on now.



If two all of a sudden wanted nothing to do with the market and exited selling their shares for whatever to the only investor, does that mean now the company is "less solid".
 
[quote author="bltserv" date=1223520959]As far as prognostication is concerned.

Dont forget even a broken watch is correct twice a day.



We still have a huge bottom to form. This could be way worse than

anticipated. At least from the equity perspective.

The Markets are off over 30-35% YTD. And we could see another 20%

at a minimum.



Here we go into the last few minutes again. Market looks like a submarine

going back underwater.</blockquote>


I don't know about you, but every single god darn book I've ever read on investing has told me you need to buy when things are down, and sell when they are up. Aka the old "buy when there is blood on the streets".



Every indicator I hear about is super-oversold. Bullish sentiment is 9%, lowest since 1987. VIX is highest since 1987. YTD this is the largest decline IN HISTORY. I look at the markets and I think to myself maybe there's a war and people are dying and somehow I didn't hear about it. Maybe people really are standing in soup lines already. Maybe we're already at 25% employment. Maybe we're all alone out there and the Fed and the world's banks are letting us die all over.



But we're not. But the market certainly is acting like we are.



It's funny how I read all these investment books and reading them "duh of course that seems so obvious". Yet again and again I see now people do in fact do the opposite of what they've learned. I don't think we've EVER seen a market where it's SO obvious everbody is shouting "SELL! DON'T THINK! JUST GET ME OUT!". Now I'm seeing arguments from people saying we have plenty more to go, because we "only" dropped 40% and the Great Depression saw a decline of 90% (which, to put in perspective the enormity of this, would put the median home value in the US at 30,000$...).



Not saying we should all buy stocks here. But everybody's playing the "let's pick the most outrageous number the Down Jones could drop to" game.
 
i'm not sure we agree on the definition of "solid". those companies took a beating because everything else took a beating, and everything took a beating because there are very few people who believe the economy is on solid footing. tech and oil-related took a especially good beating because anyone that isn't living under a rock knows the growth prospects in those industries have obviously changed in the past few weeks.



fund outflows is not market manipulation. if a hedge fund with a large stake in a company decides they're pulling out and the stock price plummets, yes it's worth 20% less. when a large investor loses confidence in a company and decides it's time to go, why shouldn't we dock the company's value? the stock mkt may just be a casino to you, but to the world economy it's still the single largest source of capital anywhere.



if half your neighbors go into foreclosure and the other half decide to dump their homes and high-tail out of town, guess what, your house is worth less. you can blame your neighbors for bailing and cry foul that nothing has fundamentally changed with your home. it's still nice and shiny and well-landscaped. good for you, but the next guy moving on the street is still not going to pay anywhere close to what you paid.



i guess it shouldnt be all that surprising that people are applying the same its-someone-elses-fault mentality to their declining stock portfolios as they used to rationalize their declining property values.
 
Muzie. The stock market is based on money supply. The more money goes in, the higher it goes up. When the money exits(like now) the prices drop.



The strategy is simple. Follow money trends and where money moves and invest accordingly. God I mean same applies to housing. Money went in, prices shot up. It has nothing to do with the fact if something is solid or not. During the housing bubble, crap homes also shot up in value. Does that mean they are worth now more all of a sudden? No. Its money supply artificially holding prices up. When you look at the fundamentals, you know that prices don't justify the math.



When I posted on babyboomers, I'm simply trying to rationalize the different things that are happening in the economy and in the future that will effect money supply. I'm still sticking to my view that even though babyboomers are not the only ones responsible of the DOW hitting 14K, but it is true that a lot of money has flooded in the market over the past 10 years. Artificially holding values up. Now that people are shaken up, money is flying out. It has nothing to do with whether or not something is solid.
 
[quote author="blackvault" date=1223528534]I can spin it another way. Lets say there is only ONE company in all of Wall Street with two investors in it. All of a sudden another investor decides to enter the stock market and wants to invest as well (increase in money supply) thus pushing the price of the stock up. Is this company now "more solid" as a result? lol, come on now.</blockquote>


Your conspiracy theory doesn't hold water. I have never worked for a hedge fund, don't know exactly how they operate, and don't know what type of people work there. I also don't know exactly how I would go about to drive a ask up by buying stuff but then magically dump the same amount of stock stealthily without driving the bid up. Just magic I guess. I'm 99% sure you don't know either, and you're just connecting things in your head that seem to make sense but have no validation in practice.



There's no point in a hedge fund dumping his stocks because "he met his profit objective". What kind of crap motive is that? Gee I made 15% on my stock, but let me drive down my profits to an average of 8% by dumping my stock blatantly because, well, I just feel like it.



Listen, there's no need for complicated theories when a simple one will suffice. People are fearful, the stocks are going down, they panic, they sell. Stock goes down. Stock goes up, people get giddy, they overpay. And that's that. Somewhere in between, real people establish real companies and try to earn real income from real goods & services. IN THE LONG RUN, you're not going to see a bankrupt company with an insane stock price nor will you see a cash cow with a zero stock price.
 
<blockquote>

I own 95% of company A. Its worth 100 Million. I decide I no longer want to hold company A because maybe I met my investors objective of 10% and want to cash out. </blockquote>


if you're the 95% owner of a company and decide you're pulling out, that WOULD be a negative reflection against the company. tell me why that shouldn't be reflected in the stock price? if TIC decides they want out of orange county and puts all their holdings on the market, why shouldn't any potential buyer suspect they know things are much worse than expected.



<blockquote>

Now. Do you know how company A will unload its shares? By market manipulation. This is done by unloading chunks of their shares, flooding the market (during low volume trading) with little orders pushing the stock price up, then unloading another chunk of shares, then during low volume trading flooding the market with little tiny 100 share orders pushing the stock price up, then unloading another chunk...you get the point.

</blockquote>


explain how you drive stock prices UP by unloading shares, irregardless of the volume? because if thats the case i guess we should all love it when investors unload shares.



where did you get your education on the markets?
 
[quote author="blackvault" date=1223528534]I can spin it another way. Lets say there is only ONE company in all of Wall Street with two investors in it. All of a sudden another investor decides to enter the stock market and wants to invest as well (increase in money supply) thus pushing the price of the stock up. Is this company now "more solid" as a result? lol, come on now. </blockquote>


yes. someone else has decided there's more opportunity in the stock than where he had his money before.



<blockquote>

If two all of a sudden wanted nothing to do with the market and exited selling their shares for whatever to the only investor, does that mean now the company is "less solid".</blockquote>


yes. 2/3rds of the companies investors decided to get out. either they know something bad about the company or they've discovered something that yields a better opportunity. in either case the company is a less solid investment than it used to be.
 
<blockquote>i guess it shouldnt be all that surprising that people are applying the same its-someone-elses-fault mentality to their declining stock portfolios as they used to rationalize their declining property values.</blockquote>


You keep bring this up. I'm assuming now you are indicating that I"m losing money. Some the have been reading my posts for a little longer already know that I cashed out of the market over a year ago waiting for the election to close so I can re-align my positions. Well thats not true, i'm 90% cashed out and the rest is in options that i trade on a daily basis. Mainly puts, but I do straddles once in a while.



So if you are indicating that I'm trying to blame others for losing, lol, then thats fine whatever makes you feel good. You know what I do all day? Other than read posts on numerous blogs? I stare at 3 different computer screens, watching red/green lights flicker all day. Do you know what that does for you after 11 years? Gives you an opportunity to learn peoples behavours in markets. You learn to "anticipate" things well in advance. You know how news will effect day to day stock movements. Each stock movement is essentially the behavior of the investor. AND YES, you also get to witness market manipulation by the big boys. Kinda hillarious to watch, but an unbelievable opportunity if you can spot it.

I don't fear the market like I did when I first started investing....because I'm very comfortable with it and I can stomach whatever it throws at me. I don't have a personal attachment to anything I do other than its a pure business transaction.



Personally, I hope the DOW goes to 1K. My sentiment is: VERY BEARISH.
 
[quote author="muzie" date=1223528767][quote author="bltserv" date=1223520959]As far as prognostication is concerned.

Dont forget even a broken watch is correct twice a day.



We still have a huge bottom to form. This could be way worse than

anticipated. At least from the equity perspective.

The Markets are off over 30-35% YTD. And we could see another 20%

at a minimum.



Here we go into the last few minutes again. Market looks like a submarine

going back underwater.</blockquote>


I don't know about you, but every single god darn book I've ever read on investing has told me you need to buy when things are down, and sell when they are up. Aka the old "buy when there is blood on the streets".



Every indicator I hear about is super-oversold. Bullish sentiment is 9%, lowest since 1987. VIX is highest since 1987. YTD this is the largest decline IN HISTORY. I look at the markets and I think to myself maybe there's a war and people are dying and somehow I didn't hear about it. Maybe people really are standing in soup lines already. Maybe we're already at 25% employment. Maybe we're all alone out there and the Fed and the world's banks are letting us die all over.



But we're not. But the market certainly is acting like we are.



It's funny how I read all these investment books and reading them "duh of course that seems so obvious". Yet again and again I see now people do in fact do the opposite of what they've learned. I don't think we've EVER seen a market where it's SO obvious everbody is shouting "SELL! DON'T THINK! JUST GET ME OUT!". Now I'm seeing arguments from people saying we have plenty more to go, because we "only" dropped 40% and the Great Depression saw a decline of 90% (which, to put in perspective the enormity of this, would put the median home value in the US at 30,000$...).



Not saying we should all buy stocks here. But everybody's playing the "let's pick the most outrageous number the Down Jones could drop to" game.</blockquote>


Its not just picking numbers. Look at the US Automakers for example.

When do you think they will show a profit again ? 5 Years ? Anyone with half a brain

would dump these stocks. GM was a large part of todays DOW slide. GM off 8.6%

There cars are built like JUNK. I would never own an American Car. After 100,000 miles

they are trash. Terrible build quality and they know it.



How about Bank of America ? Just absorbed Countrywide and Merrill Lynch. It lost 7% today.

We have NO IDEA if this Megabank is going to survive. NO IDEA what the balance sheet really is or how much of this bailout they will receive. I sure would not be buying this equity

anytime soon. The just dumped 455 Million shares on the market. Can you say dilution ?



How about Home Depot ? Think housing is about to just explode ? Tell you what.

Go into the Home Depot at Woodbury and see if you can find many customers.



These 3 components of the DOW have a ways to fall further. And its just not on panic.

They are poor investments IMHO. We are entering a deep recession at best.
 
and so why are you bearish? because you believe the markets are will be manipulated downward... or is it because companies aren't as "solid" as they're currently priced at?
 
[quote author="blackvault" date=1223529364]Muzie. The stock market is based on money supply. The more money goes in, the higher it goes up. When the money exits(like now) the prices drop.



The strategy is simple. Follow money trends and where money moves and invest accordingly. God I mean same applies to housing. Money went in, prices shot up. It has nothing to do with the fact if something is solid or not. During the housing bubble, crap homes also shot up in value. Does that mean they are worth now more all of a sudden? No. Its money supply artificially holding prices up. When you look at the fundamentals, you know that prices don't justify the math.



When I posted on babyboomers, I'm simply trying to rationalize the different things that are happening in the economy and in the future that will effect money supply. I'm still sticking to my view that even though babyboomers are not the only ones responsible of the DOW hitting 14K, but it is true that a lot of money has flooded in the market over the past 10 years. Artificially holding values up. Now that people are shaken up, money is flying out. It has nothing to do with whether or not something is solid.</blockquote>


The stock market is nothing more than a belief system. People put money up in what they believe.



So, say, 50% believe in fundamentals, and stocks react to that. 20% believe in technical analysis, so TA ends up working. 30% believe in nothing, so they just go how they feel that day, and we get some noise on the price action. If 5% believe in astrology then you'll probably see planet alignments affecting stocks too as people behave accordingly.



It's so happens that the "fundamental" system is, and always has been, the dominant belief system over long periods of time a- being the most intuitive and easiest to explain. Thus fundamentals will win out in the end.



If 100% of market participants start believing that stocks are just random funny numbers that just move up or down according to whatever feels like, then ya I guess you could say "being solid" wouldn't matter. Crazy "random numbers" period tend to not last very long.
 
[quote author="acpme" date=1223529694]<blockquote>

I own 95% of company A. Its worth 100 Million. I decide I no longer want to hold company A because maybe I met my investors objective of 10% and want to cash out. </blockquote>


if you're the 95% owner of a company and decide you're pulling out, that WOULD be a negative reflection against the company. tell me why that shouldn't be reflected in the stock price? if TIC decides they want out of orange county and puts all their holdings on the market, why shouldn't any potential buyer suspect they know things are much worse than expected.



<blockquote>

Now. Do you know how company A will unload its shares? By market manipulation. This is done by unloading chunks of their shares, flooding the market (during low volume trading) with little orders pushing the stock price up, then unloading another chunk of shares, then during low volume trading flooding the market with little tiny 100 share orders pushing the stock price up, then unloading another chunk...you get the point.

</blockquote>


explain how you drive stock prices UP by unloading shares, irregardless of the volume? because if thats the case i guess we should all love it when investors unload shares.



where did you get your education on the markets?</blockquote>


WOW. Are you serious? You really don't know how manipulation works. If my 1st grade explanation isn't clear. I don't know how else to explain it other than repeating what I just said. I'll try again.



1. Unloading chunks = Dump 100000000000000000000000000 shares early in the morning when market opens. Price drops.



2. During lunch time when volume is usually relatively low (don't get technical with me it doesn't have to be lunch time just low volume. Place many buy orders of 100 shares and have somebody else buy them. (because last sale is what determines current price, follow so far?) If you are lucky sometimes you get unexpected help from other investors that see an increase in price and have no clue why? (irrational exuberance) and thus you created momentum.



3. Then when prices are "high" unload another big chunk.



You can do this yourself. Get 100K and go play around with a 1.5 stock and see what you can do...



PS. I won't take offense to "where did you get your education on the markets?", because I know you are clueless when it comes to this. But the answer is experience.
 
[quote author="acpme" date=1223530468]and so why are you bearish? because you believe the markets are will be manipulated downward... or is it because companies aren't as "solid" as they're currently priced at?</blockquote>


Neither, because money supply isn't there and wont be for some time. But if you could comprehend 10% of my posts you would be intelligent enough to see that.
 
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